HOUSTON TEXANS

I was a little hesitant to get started on the Houston Texans in this series because of the great unknown at quarterback, but I decide to just go ahead and knock it out because it may end up being one of the least interesting articles in this group. There’s not going to be a ton of fantasy relevance, and the chances of Houston making any kind of playoff run should be close to the league worst, if not at the very bottom. With that being said, let’s get this shit show out of the way…

The elephant in the locker room is obviously Deshaun Watson. His legal and civil proceedings are a mixed bag of awful that won’t get any kind of resolution till after the Super bowl is played in 2022. You can fast track this pretty simple – Watson is headed for the commissioner’s exempt list. So, you can scratch 2021, and push all your chips in on Deshaun not playing until 2023 at the earliest, if there is anything left lingering with his legal battles going into the 2022 regular season. There’s no reason for the NFL to risk the public relations fallout of letting him play while any of this mess is sorting itself out. Deshaun has played his last down as the quarterback in Houston and, for the foreseeable future, has put himself out of the league. At some point there may be a chance for him to come back but the Texans will have lost any chance to maximize a return on a trade so from a roster building point of view, Watson’s inability to play will be a potential franchise killer for several years.

The Texans decided to draft Davis Mills with an eye towards developing him as the starting quarterback while free agent Tyrod Taylor was brought in to mentor yet another likely successor. Taylor has developed a sort of brand as the arm you bring in to run the show while you cultivate the next slinger. It’s an interesting niche market he’s put together and, to be frank, I dig it. However, Tyrod has never thrown more than 20 touchdowns in a single season and the odds have to be against him breaking that mark this year in Houston. I’ll give him an outside chance as there is an additional game this year and the Texans will probably open up the playbook and go semi crazy as the year goes on, simply because ‘why not’?

At running back, David Johnson will still be the man, but he does have a lot more help this season than last. Mark Ingram was brought in to likely be the primary spell back as these two rushers have more similar styles than what some may notice at first glance. I like this duo quite a bit and wouldn’t be surprised if they rush well when the opportunity presents itself, which is the bigger challenge to overcome. An offense that has issues moving the ball through the air invites a stacked box so clean rushing lanes are going to be a rare commodity. The Texans also signed Phillip Lindsay and Rex Burkhead so the running back room is set to carry a huge burden in 2021.

The wide receiver group is kind of a ‘who’s who’ of guys that people like to see on a roster but don’t want to view as a primary option. Brandin Cooks is a great complimentary weapon, and you could possibly say the same about Randall Cobb, but you don’t want either of those guys to be your WR1. Chris Conley is a nice player to add to the roster, and maybe Donte Moncrief can get back to being relevant, but you’re likely looking at Keke Coutee to be ahead of both of them on the depth chart. The absolute best case scenario for the Texans at wide receiver would be for rookie Nico Collins and second year player Isaiah Coulter to find ways into meaningful reps early. Collins has a solid enough game to compliment as a big body underneath while Coulter and Cooks can lift the top off of the defense. It would give Houston levels in the passing game to create space and windows for passers that are going to need some really clean looks.

Keeping with the idea of needing receivers to help the passers, the tight end group in Houston is going to need Kahale Warring to step up and be the player that many thought he could be coming into the 2019 draft. Simply put, the Texans have a lot of names but no clear starter at this position. Akins, Izzo and Brown are depth on any other roster, but will compete for a starting job in Houston. The situation here is pretty awful and it needs to be one of the larger focal points for the Texans to focus on next off-season if they intend to develop another passer.

Laremy Tunsil is a monster at left tackle, but the offensive line as a whole is still a subpar unit. Adding Justin Britt to man the center is a band-aid kind of move, but it’s just about good enough to ensure the run game won’t totally vanish. It looks like the interior could be Max Scharping and Justin McCray, which won’t instill any fear in a defensive line on game day. Marcus Cannon is the likely starter at right tackle when he fully recovers, so Tytus Howard and Charlie Heck will be the most likely duo to hit the swings. If Cannon can get right quickly the bookends in Houston should work together solidly, and that may ultimately decide whether or not the players in the middle get a chance to get comfortable this year.

Switching up the Texans defense to run the Tampa-2 opens up some nice possibilities on the defensive line, and the optimist in me wants to believe that the loss of J.J. Watt will be mitigated by the emergence of Whitney Mercilus, Jordan Jenkins and Shaq Lawson all getting a crack at true DE duties. This feels like an immediate small win for Houston, getting this trio with a hand in the dirt, attacking non-stop off the edge. In the interior of the DL, the outlook is obviously bleaker. However, I will go on record with the opinion that Maliek Collins is a decent bet for a bounce back after getting a weird shake in Las Vegas. He may be the lone high point by season’s end though, as the rest of the middle is a mess of names that will likely battle every week, all year to be the man next to Collins. If you press me on one name from this group that will emerge as the eventual starter, I’ll go with Roy Lopez. In fact, I’ll go ahead and up the ante on that and give him the outside shot to be the best interior defensive lineman on the roster by the end of the season.

At linebacker, the Texans have a decent group to work with and I expect Cunningham, Hewitt and Kirksey to be one of the better trios in the league by seasons end. Now, some of that is blatant speculation on my part as there has been no real leak on whether or not Kirksey will get reps on the outside. I believe he should, as it would only benefit this group as a whole to have the three best linebackers available on the field for as many reps as possible. The real question here is whether or not Hewitt can play that ‘Derrick Brooks’ role for this revamped defensive scheme. I believe he can, and I also see it as one of the shrewder, under the radar signings that happened this past off-season. Adding Joe Thomas gives Houston a capable back-up across all 3 spots, while Hardy Nickerson may get a shot at being the primary back-up to Hewitt. Throw in Kevin Pierre-Lewis and Garrett Wallow and this is one of my favorite linebacker rooms in the NFL.

You can count me in as one of the people that believe the switch on defense is going to have a hugely positive impact on the defensive secondary. There is a lot of talent here that has been forgotten or glossed over. From Justin Reid and Lonnie Johnson as starters, to Terrence Brooks and Eric Murray as back-ups, the safety position in Houston is solid. Looking at the corners, Roby is an obvious talent, but this scheme should give Vernon Hargreaves a chance to reboot the second half of his career. Add in Desmond King at the slot and Terrance Mitchell as the 4th option and the Texans have a lot to feel good about in their secondary. One more random tidbit I’ll throw in – I expect Lovie Smith to find a roster spot for Shyheim Carter. His position flexibility and football acumen make him a great deep roster hold that frees up another position spot that Houston may want to use on the other side of the ball.

Over/Under Wins in 2021 
Vegas – 4.5
L4SN – 3.5

I think Vegas may be giving the Texans a full game more than they deserve in 2021. Look, I really like some of what they are going to do on defense, and the running game should compliment that. However, the quarterback play is going to be something that unravels more and more as the season goes on, leaving the offense too one dimensional.

This is an ideal season for Houston to flop out and go high in the draft. The number one overall pick would be a boon to a team that is going to be searching for a ton of answers at the final whistle of week 17.

Fantasy Depth Chart
QB
Deshaun Watson
Tyrod Taylor
Davis Mills
Jeff Driskel

RB
David Johnson
Phillip Lindsay
Mark Ingram
Rex Burkhead
Buddy Howell
Dontrell Hilliard
Scottie Phillips

WR
Brandin Cooks
Nico Collins
Randall Cobb
Keke Coutee
Chris Conley
Isaiah Coulter
Chris Moore
Donte Moncrief

TE
Jordan Akins
Ryan Izzo
Brevin Jordan
Pharaoh Brown
Kahale Warring

So, trying to get a handle on what is happening on offense for the Texans obviously revolves around Deshaun Watson’s availability. I don’t think he plays, but I’m not drafting any of the other options at passer, so he remains the #1 of that group by default. Davis Mills is an ok look for a large bench dynasty league, but don’t give up any draft capital on him that could be put towards better resources.

The running back group is the only one that can be relied on for some kind of weekly output. It may not be much at times, or even most of the time, but if the defense clicks then off the back of sheer volume should come average or better fantasy totals. David Johnson is the clear #1, but how should it be sorted after that? The first problem is the number of bodies compared to potential openings. Someone is getting cut here, and it could be more than one. Scottie Phillips, Buddy Howell and Dontrell Hilliard will likely be the odd men out, and my guess is that Rex Burkhead will also be relegated to jersey-less duties. That would make Mark Ingram the better handcuff to Johnson as, I mentioned in the opening, their games are more comparable than what some may perceive on first glance. Phillip Lindsay is the likely ‘change of pace’, which may end up being a sneaky play, completely dependent on match-up.

Brandin Cooks remains the top option in the receiving room to get some fantasy value from, but I really like Nico Collins. Had Collins gone to a more friendly environment he would have jumped up on my dynasty cheat sheet significantly. However, the Texans are so bereft at legit pass catching talent that I expect Nico to play early and often, which gives him a chance to become the true #1 sooner rather than later. Cobb and Coutee are high risk, potentially decent reward options under normal quarterbacking circumstances. Now, I’m not drafting anyone from this group other than Cooks or Collins.

If you are looking down at your cheat sheet late in the draft and you’re trying to decide which Texans tight end you should draft because you have a massive hole at that position… Yep, you messed up big time. Avoid this group as there are plenty of other options out there that I would prefer to take that come with better odds of breaking out or hit and miss production.