DETROIT LIONS

Matthew Stafford has been traded for Jared Goff and the immediate consensus is that the Rams have drastically upgraded at quarterback while the Lions have downgraded and taken on a burdensome contract all for additional draft capital. Well, I have questions…

First, let’s look at the details of the trade. The Lions acquired QB Jared Goff, a 2021 third-round pick, 2022 first-round pick and 2023 first-round pick from the Rams in exchange for Matthew Stafford. Everyone jumped on this as a huge get for Los Angeles and a bit of a head scratcher for the Lions, but my initial reaction to it has held up even after looking further into it. Detroit is the winner in this trade as it gives them the potential to manipulate two future drafts to further build capital while giving them a young, serviceable signal caller to bridge into the future that also has potential to be the long term answer at passer if the offense is retooled correctly. I know, I know, some of you are going to compare Goff to Stafford straight up and see it as a massive downgrade, so let’s get into that discussion now.

For starters, we can look at how Stafford has had arguably the best wide receiver to play the game for the majority of his career in Calvin Johnson, followed by the drafting of up-and-coming receiver Kenny Golladay. This is a pair of premium hands that would elevate any passers play, yet Matt has only cracked the 30 TD threshold twice in his career. His win/loss record shouldn’t be a definitive against him as Detroit seems to be in perpetual rebuild mode, but it can’t be ignored completely either. Stafford is 74-93 as a starter. There is also the idea that Matt feels like the oldest 33 year old passer that I can remember in all of my years of breaking down football. His list of injuries from nagging to severe continues to pile up putting him at a certain risk level that also needs to be factored in. To be sure, it’s not all bad for Los Angeles as acquiring Stafford gives them a strong leader in the huddle, lethal downfield arm strength and a player willing to tough it out through pain on every game day. Basically, what I’m getting at is there are some serious questions that will be answered over the course of the next couple seasons that I don’t think a lot of people have actually asked before throwing out their opinion on just how good the Rams will be now that Matt has arrived.

On the flipside, Detroit has acquired a 26 year old passer that ultimately had his head coach dump a Super bowl loss on. I cannot overstate this fact – Sean McVay scapegoated Jared Goff for a loss that had way more to do with coaching inadequacies than it did with poor quarterback play. McVay made the relationship between franchise quarterback and coach too toxic to continue, so one way or the other a change at passer was going to have to be made. For the Lions, they get a young player that has shown some above average ability that can be molded into the type of reliable passer that a team can build around. Quarterbacks that can play and win games at the NFL level are extremely difficult to acquire and cultivate, so Detroit was unbelievably fortunate to strike the kind of deal that sees their former passer, a player that may or may not live up to the hype that has surrounded him throughout this trade, get dealt for a younger, healthier player while adding two future first round picks. These are the kind of moves that can end the revolving door at head coach and the constant changes in the front office. It can be the cornerstone foundation block for Detroit to end the rebuild and become competitive in the NFC North for the long haul. Now, factor in the career of Rodgers soon coming to an end, the situation in Minny looking to become fluid and the Bears likely looking to change head coach and general manager while grooming Justin Fields, and the window for the Lions to make bold moves is obviously open now.

To be clear, I’m not stating that Stafford will be a bust in L.A. or that Goff will be a star in Detroit. What I am saying is that there are questions to be answered that no one appears to be considering that will have far reaching implications for both of these franchises.

With the hiring of Anthony Lynn as the offensive coordinator, the running game in Detroit should get the kind of boost that will be needed to transition from Stafford to Goff while the Lions look to add talent to the receiving group next off-season. D’Andre swift is still seen as the primary rusher by many, but my guess is that we are going to see a lot of shared time between both Swift and Jamaal Williams. It makes sense as they can be seen as complimentary players, something that Lynn has hinted at this off-season (from The Athletic). How much of an upgrade having this type of philosophy going into 2021 for Detroit’s ground game may, in part, have to do with how well the chemistry is formed between those two rushers. If they embrace it the way Lendale White and Chris Johnson did, we could be looking at one of the better 1-2 punches in the league. There is a lot more talent here than what some might perceive at first glance, but that ends with the starting duo. The rest of the running back room is a mixed bag that we will have to wait until the preseason to see who seizes the opportunity, but Jermar Jefferson is the likely RB3.

The wide receiver room lost Kenny Golladay in free agency so they are going to be without a #1 to start the season. The Lions drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown in the fourth round and there is a chance that he can work his way into being a perimeter or slot starter from week one. It was a solid pick that likely could have gone earlier in the draft but it may not do much to move the needle when it comes to replacing Golladay’s targets and production. The rest of the receiving group is a kind of mish-mash of names and hands that will likely make for some compelling competition this off-season. I expect to see Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman battle it out for one side of the field, primarily in a deep threat role, while the other side likely comes down to Quintez Cephus or St. Brown. The latter of these two battles has two winners regardless, as it’s easy to see them both sharing snaps on the permiter and in the slot throughout the entire season. However, this starting unit and the players that make up the bench are easily one of, if not the, lowest ranked receiving groups in the NFL going into the 2021 season.

Tight end will be the position that offers Jared Goff the steadiest support to start his career in Detroit. T.J. Hockenson will be the most reliable target offered in the passing attack, and in 12 personnel it’s possible that Alize Mack finally steps in to a role that would become beneficial to the offense. Mack and Darren Fells will likely compete for that spot, with Fells being the go-to option when the ground game needs that extra big body at the end of the line. If Hockenson were to miss time in 2021, it would likely be the biggest setback the offense would face beyond injury to Jared Goff.

The offensive line is improving and drafting Penei Sewell to play opposite of Taylor Decker goes a long way toward locking up the edges. This is a pair that I am comfortable with having confidence in keeping the pressure off of the outside of the quarterback. Frank Ragnow locks up the center with very high level play, and Jonah Jackson went out and played well enough in his rookie season that the ceiling appears to be much higher for the 20 year old than a lot of people expected. There is still a serious hole at right guard that will have to be addressed in the 2022 off-season. Halapoulivaati Vaitai has been a bust of a signing and could be replaced early on by Tyrell Crosby, which may not be more than a marginal improvement.

Detroit is switching up its defense some and going with one of my preferred philosophies up front. Basically, it will be a variation of the 3-4 that is, in essence, a five man DL with two LBs forming the front. Green Bay and New England both run a version of it, and although I have my own take on exactly how this should be implemented, I’m very curious to see how the Lions go about operating this when the preseason hit. For starters, this group could be sneaky good if the right pieces fall into place. The front will be led by Romeo Okwara coming off the edge and he will be the unquestioned leader of the group. The opposite side of the field is where it gets interesting as the Lions could deploy a three man rotation that includes Julian Okwara (Romeo’s younger brother), Trey Flowers and Charles Harris. Julian is the one player out of this group that could develop into a full time starter opposite his brother, but the strength of that side this season will likely come from all three players getting a chance to stay fresh and work on their craft throughout the year. Now, that could be rendered moot as Flowers may find himself lined up in what would be more of a 5-tech spot, so that’s one of the interesting things to monitor that I eluded to earlier. On the interior of the line, I’m thinking Alim McNeil will get the first crack at the nose while Michael Brockers and Levi Onwuzurike will possibly take the other spot. None of that is set in stone, but it would be my preferred grouping. This is the kind of unit that will get skipped over in the rankings but there is some talent here to work with that could prove to exceed initial expectations.

As for the linebackers, because of how this defense may operate the only two spots that are really open will be the interior. Cutting down the options to only two actually works in Detroit’s favor as they don’t have a lot of solid options to bank on. If Jahlani Tavai is to be considered a middle, with Jamie Collins considered the off, that starting duo is best described as potentially adequate. I would prefer to see Derrick Barnes, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Shaun Dion Hamilton and Alex Anzalone get as much run as possible to see which of these players will be best suited for different situations. Anzalone and Reeves-Maybin may be the better duo in passing situations while Barnes and Tavai may be better for early downs.

Safety Tracy Walker and corner Jeff Okudah will be the highlights in the secondary that still needs to improve its overall talent. Rookie Ifeatu Mefifonwu is the kind of weapon that the defense can morph into many different roles and should be on the field in 3 safety sets with priority coverage on opposing tight ends. Will Harris and Dean Marlowe will likely battle it out to play safety opposite Walker, and Corn Elder should get a shot at significant snaps in the slot, but overall the holes in this group are going to need to be covered up by aggressive play from the front 7.

All in all, the Lions have some things to like on defense that may prove to be a step in the right direction, but combined with the growing pains they will have on offense there is still some work that needs to be done on both sides of the ball before Detroit steps into divisional contention. I like where they are headed though, and I think there is a great deal to be optimistic about if you’re a fan of Detroit.

Over/Under Wins in 2021 
Vegas – 5
L4SN – 5.5

I’m giving the Lions a half game more than Vegas at the moment and it wouldn’t take me a lot of convincing to go ahead and put some money against the book. The schedule has some soft spots in it for Detroit, so if they can buy into what the coaching staff is selling there is a good chance here that the Lions outperform the speculators.

Fantasy Depth Chart
QB
Jared Goff
Tim Boyle

RB
D’Andre Swift
Jamaal Williams
Jermar Jefferson
Jonathan Williams

WR
Quintez Cephus
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Breshad Perriman
Tyrell Williams
Geronimo Allison

TE
T.J. Hockenson
Darren Fells
Alize Mack

It’s easy for most people to simply write off Jared Goff for fantasy purposes, but there is some decent value to work with here, specifically in dynasty leagues. If you can buy shares of Goff on the cheap you can stash him for the future and see how Detroit builds the offense around him. Worst case scenario would be that you have a guy you simply have to drop or deal away for a poor return. The best case scenario would be that the Lions get him some serious weapons to work with, the defense evolves into a powerhouse and he ends up a top 12 fantasy player with significantly increased trade value. Right now, his worth would be something around a possible streaming option and a fallback call up for injury purposes. Solid quarterbacks for 12 team dynasty leagues are a good commodity to stack up.

At running back, until we see just how Anthony Lynn deploys these backs I will be taking a hands off approach. If Jamaal or D’Andre are sitting in a very late spot that justifies taking a flier on them, sure, I’ll bite. But other than that, I want to see how the time share plays out and what the offense is capable of. I’m not nearly as high as some on Jermar, so if you are targeting him in a dynasty league my advice would be to pass on him in the first two rounds and hope that he slides into the third. If he doesn’t, don’t let it bother you.

Amon-Ra St. Brown sits one spot behind Quintez Cephus for my Detroit fantasy depth chart and if you are surprised that Perriman slid to three, you’re just gonna have to get over it. Breshaud may be the deep threat guy to have between he and Tyrell Williams, but I would prefer the player that is going to soak up the intermediate targets as Goff should remain decently proficient in that area. So, naturally T.J. Hockenson is the best bet to be the primary receiver in this offense, but I think both St. Brown and Cephus can be viewed as the 2a/2b for the larger target share. Cephus is likely the better for the early on, while Amon-Ra should be the better long term bet.