DALLAS COWBOYS

After Dak Prescott suffered a season ending injury in week 5 the Cowboys calendar basically became a bunch of checklists for how to get things ready in 2021. Anyone that was fooling themselves into believing that Dallas still had a chance to make a serious run in 2020 was, well, simply playing the part of the fool. Dak is the leader of that offense in every calculable way that a franchise quarterback can be. Without Prescott, the Cowboys are not contenders. With Prescott, Dallas can make a serious Super bowl run and potentially be the king of the NFC.

With Dak on track to start week 1 for the Cowboys, the 2021 season is going to be one that sees Dallas as favorites to win the NFC East. Their only serious competition will likely come from the Washington Football Team, but considering Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starter for most of, it not all, of the season for the nameless, I can’t see a path for them to really push against the Cowboys. Philadelphia is one of the bigger question marks in the entire NFL and the Giants are probably going to be forced into the realization that Daniel Jones is not the answer at quarterback. That gives Dallas the inside track on a division win and a playoff spot so long as they can keep Dak on his feet for a full 17 games.

What really sets the Cowboys apart from just about any other team in the league is their skill position players. This is an offense that will feature CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown at wide receiver, along with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard at running back. Throw in Dalton Schultz at tight end and you have arguably the best set of skill in the NFL. If the offensive line returns to full strength and can remain healthy for the year, the Cowboys have the potential to light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine on tilt.

The real question marks for Dallas come from the defensive side of the ball, but they went after it in the draft and it looks like an improved unit on paper. Linebacker Micah Parsons has the kind of talent that can make him an immediate difference maker on defense. Lining him up with Leighton Vander-Esch and Jaylon Smith feels like it should put them near the top when it comes to talent starting at linebacker. They also added Jabril Cox to that group, so they got their needed third starter and depth in one draft class. They also signed former safety, now converting to linebacker, Keanu Neal. That’s not too shabby when it comes to shoring up one particular position group.

The secondary and the interior of the defensive line is where a lot of concern will likely be directed in 2021, and for good reason. Safety Donovan Wilson might end up being the stand out player on the back of the defense, but it could be more of a default kind of thing. There simply is not a lot of play making ability coming from the current make up on the roster. Dallas has to make an effort to get more talent injected into the secondary going into 2022. For the interior of the DL, it looks like Neville Gallimore and Trysten Hill will likely be the starters. That’s not a lot of fear being put into opposing offensive lines. It wouldn’t surprise me in the smallest if Dallas ended up giving Brent Urban starters reps in the middle before the end of the season.

There’s a recipe here for a lot of shootout style wins, but I would say that Dallas is uniquely positioned to make the most of those opportunities, so long as Mike McCarthy doesn’t become a liability at head coach.

Over/Under Wins in 2021 
Vegas – 9.5
L4SN – 10.5

I have the Cowboys O/U set at one full game higher than Vegas currently does. It may be on the heels of what I expect to be a folding New York Giants giving up down the stretch with Dallas able to secure 11 wins off of that division sweep, but the most likely scenario is the Cowboys reaching 10 wins and needing one more game to break in their direction. 10.5 feels like a really solid line for Dallas in 2021.

Fantasy Depth Chart
QB
Dak Prescott
Garrett Gilbert
Ben DiNucci

RB
Ezekiel Elliott
Tony Pollard
Rico Dowdle

WR
CeeDee Lamb
Amari Cooper
Michael Gallup
Cedrick Wilson
Noah Brown
Simi Fehoko
Osirus Mitchell
T.J. Vasher

TE
Dalton Schultz
Blake Jarwin
Sean McKeon

Right off tops, you’ll note that I have CeeDee Lamb listed above Amari Cooper on the wide receiver depth chart and, yes, that was intentional. It’s a two part decision – 1.) if you’re in a dynasty league he’s obviously the better long term player 2.) I fully expect him to outscore Cooper in 2021. CeeDee Lamb can be a generational talent at wide receiver the moment that he is tapped as the go-to or true #1 receiver in the offense. For the rest of the receivers, if Michael Gallup can settle into a sustained role on offense he could produce WR2 types of numbers going against the right match-ups, but he feels like a better depth addition to a team that is currently holding shares of Cooper or Lamb. There’s also some longer term value to be had in this group for dynasty leagues with Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko. In particular with Fehoko, his skill set and size have him in a situation where he could morph into a Darren Waller type at tight end. Now, this of course depends on a Dallas coaching staff being willing to move Simi into a role of that nature and then giving him opportunities in game. They do utilize Blake Jarwin in some situations that are flexible for a tight end, so getting Fehoko a chance to get involved in that capacity feels like the best way for Dallas to maximize his early potential and give him more of an opportunity to develop into their long term plans.

Dak is going to be a top 5 quarterback in 2021 with a shot at supplanting Patrick Mahomes as the top dog by season’s end. The opportunities to score consistently week in, week out, are going to be presented to Prescott just as much as they are to Mahomes. It’s those opportunities that typically decide just how high a quarterback (or just about any) player can rise in the rankings.

Can Ezekiel Elliott return to fantasy dominance this season? The truth is, he may need to or else his contract becomes the kind that makes him close to expendable in 2022. It definitely makes him the outside man in 2023, so getting two season’s worth of highly productive play may be the only way he remains a Cowboy in 2024, especially considering the flashes that Tony Pollard has given when asked to step in. That’s what makes Pollard such an interesting hold in dynasty leagues. He has the potential to step into a monster role from either injury to Elliott, or lack of the kind of stats from Zeke that warrant keeping his contract on the books in 2022. Tony is one of my favorite end of bench players to hold onto for the long term.