CAROLINA PANTHERS

The obvious big news with the Panthers this off-season has been the trade for Sam Darnold. A lot of pundits were all in on Carolina moving up to go after a passer in the 2021 draft, and I have to include myself as one of the people that viewed it as a legit possibility. But I also had them down as a favorite to go after Darnold because it feels like a near perfect fit for both player and team. First, the Panthers didn’t need to give up a ton of draft capital to go after Sam, which meant they could continue building on what looks to be a solid foundation for the future. Second, Darnold’s mobility and the ability to throw the ball effectively downfield fits into what Carolina would like to do on offense. And third, it’s an ideal situation for a quarterback that would have been considered one of the top arms in this draft class if he were coming out this year to bounce back and show why he had so much promise coming out of college. Everything about this trade looks like an immediate win for both player and team. I truly like it a lot and I can see it being viewed down the road as the impetus for the Panthers becoming the dominant team in the NFC South.

Of course, the ground game in Carolina is nothing to sneeze at, and Christian McCaffrey is one of the best dual threat rushers to come into the league since Marshall Faulk. The question of over usage will likely linger into 2021, but he’s now a member of the 1,000/1,000 club and he will probably continue to be an absolute workhorse despite the drafting of Chuba Hubbard. Considering Hubbard was once considered a highly coveted collegiate player, his downward trend throughout the draft process was surprising to some. However, he had already crashed down my board prior to the testing period and it could be that he ends up being less of a factor than Reggie Bonnafon, Trenton Cannon and Rodney Smith. To be sure, Hubbard is going to get every chance to be the #2 back for the Panthers offense, but he is going to need to vastly improve both his receiving capability and his pass blocking before he will get many game time reps other than the occasional guaranteed rushing spell. Bonnafon has the edge in receiving ability and possibly better fits OC Joe Brady’s offense, so until I see Chuba actually making plays for Carolina, I have my reservations that he will ever fill the shoes some were trying to give him.

At wide receiver, this group is probably more respectable than what a lot of people would first consider. D.J. Moore is not quite as good as some in the media will push, but he’s a rock solid football player and an effective WR1 in Carolina’s offense. After bringing in former Jet Robby Anderson last year, the Panthers went out and signed former Seahawk David Moore and drafted LSU’s Terrace Marshall this off-season. This gives them a solid, if umspectacular, group of receivers to work with on game day. While the names may not inspire a lot of confidence, the set up is smooth across the 4. You have a pair of chain movers and a pair of vertical threats that can lift coverage and create multiple levels for the offense to work within. Considering the receiving prowess of McCaffrey, the only thing really missing is a tight end that can kill weak coverage in the intermediate across the middle of the field.

This is where I have to take myself to task a bit on a previous scouting report. Ian Thomas profiled very well within my system and I expected him to develop into a solid starter after the departure of Greg Olsen. Now, I will give myself the out that he hasn’t had a good situation to groom into and Joe Brady’s offense appeared to leave the position out in the cold. But the Panthers must also view Thomas as nothing more than roster fodder as they brought in two players to compete with him this season in former Cardinal Dan Arnold, and rookie Tommy Tremble. One of these two players is going to become a receiving threat within the Panthers offense and if I had to wager how it will go, they will both be on the field in 12 personnel with Arnold being the primary receiving option and Tremble being the blocker. The chance for Thomas to be a factor likely evaporated after a disastrous 2020, so, I gotta own that one…

The offensive line for the Panthers will be the largest question mark on offense with several names that need to find their proper place before week 1. Cameron Erving is set to be the starting LT. Interestingly enough, Erving was ranked well within our system going into his draft but was selected to Cleveland during some of it’s most dysfunctional years. It was no surprise to see him struggle to get his career started as he was more raw material than a polished product, thrown into a blender where there would be little focus on helping him get to his next step. Once relocated to Kansas City, Erving had more uneven play that started to level out and show some promise. However, his only year in Dallas looked shaky at best, which got him another plane ticket out of town. Now he’s tasked with possibly being the starting blindside protector, so there will be very little time for him to grow into his new role with Carolina. Greg Little will likely be his primary back-up, and has been solid in the ground game when healthy, which could be best categorized as ‘infrequently’. The interior of the line is going to have battles at both guard spots that could carry into the season, so having stability at center is a bit of a bright spot. Matt Paradis may not be one of the elite names in the league at his position, but there are definitely teams that are going to trot out worse options this season. The lone standout for this unit would be right tackle Taylor Moton. Simply put, Moton is a monster at the position is is going to end up with the kind of contract that may reset the market for RT. Overall, there is potential here for a unit to come together under OC Joe Brady’s system that far exceeds immediate expectations, and it will need to if the Panthers are to bring Sam Darnold up to the level of play that makes him their answer for franchise quarterback.

On defense, the Panthers are almost absurdly talented on the EDGE. With Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos wearing Panthers colors, Carolina went out and signed free agent, former first round pick Haason Reddick. Throw in the additional signing of Morgan Fox to rotate on both the EDGE and the interior as a 3-tech and the Panthers are going to have plenty of heat to send after opposing quarterbacks. The interior of the defensive line will need Derrick Brown to be the lynch pin while free agent signing DaQuan Jones becomes a run stuffing plug next to him. Bravion Roy will get some snaps but they could lessen as the season goes on as I expect rookie Daviyon Nixon to get more involved down the back stretch of the season. This is a solid grouping with upside that was a bit underwhelming in 2020, but is primed for an upswing in 2021.

At linebacker, Shaq Thompson will be the focal point and all reports coming out this summer suggest he is continuing to embrace his responsibility as the leader of this group, which includes transforming his frame this off-season. Denzel Perryman was brought in to shore up one hole while Jermaine Carter is the likely starter to fill the other vacancy that will possibly be created by Jeremy Chinn moving from linebacker to safety. That move may or may not last throughout the year, which is one of the reasons why this unit has a high probability of being one of the lower ranked linebacker corps by the end of the season.

Just how good this secondary will be depends a lot on whether or not Chinn does make the move to safety and how quickly rookie Jaycee Horn adapts to the NFL. Chinn could be the most talented player at his position for this secondary. They could continue with Burris and Franklin, or possibly plug in Delano Hill, but Burris may be better off moving to free safety. It’s an interesting situation to monitor this off-season as I’m not sure Carolina has a cemented plan for the cap of the defense. As for cornerbacks, adding Jaycee gave the Panthers a shot at having one of the better duos in the league. Donte Jackson has already elevated his play, so the starting two spots should be solid. With Rashaan Melvin and A.J. Bouye being the next two up, Carolina appears to be in good shape at cornerback for 2021.

Over/Under Wins in 2021 
Vegas – 7.5
L4SN – 9.5

This is one of the biggest differences in the O/U that I have with Vegas. Right now, I have Carolina a full two games higher than the sports books. Some of that has to do with the schedule breakdown, but some of it also has to do with the change at quarterback for the Panthers.

Just off of swapping Bridewater out for Darnold, you could make an argument that Carolina should have one more game in strength from Vegas.

Fantasy Depth Chart
QB
Sam Darnold
P.J. Walker
Will Grier

RB
Christian McCaffrey
Chuba Hubbard
Reggie Bonnafon
Rodney Smith
Trenton Cannon

WR
D.J. Moore
Robby Anderson
Terrace Marshall
David Moore
Shi Smith
Omar Bayless
Ventell Bryant

TE
Dan Arnold
Tommy Tremble
Ian Thomas

For dynasty owners, buying Sam Darnold on the cheap may already be a long lost option, but in quarterback heavy leagues it’s worth a shot to see if you can get him at a bargain. Although the offensive line is still a work in progress, there is potential here for a huge upswing in production from a former high first round pick.

Christian McCaffrey can be safely targeted as the RB1 in almost any format, but which rusher will be the man if McCaffrey misses some time? Although Hubbard is ranked at #2 on my depth chart, Bonnafon could be the lead dog if injury hits. There’s also an outside shot that Trenton Cannon becomes a factor. Basically, you’re throwing a dart to get the right handcuff, so going with the name that the coaching staff will likely try to push feels like the better bet. That’s why Chuba gets the nod.

I think there’s a legit shot that Rodney Anderson is the top fantasy receiver for the Panthers at the end of 2021. He already has some chemistry with Sam Darnold and he’s a legit deep threat for an offense predicated on the run. Moore still gets the top spot because of the likely volume of targets he will gather, but adding Terrace Marshall in the draft could cut into that share. David Moore is an interesting late round buy for 12 team leagues and for dynasty players, Shi Smith has fallen way down the board in nearly every draft I’ve participated in. He’s worth taking a shot on if you are in need of receiving help and have the roster space to hold him for more than one season.

At tight end, Arnold feels like the player to target for seasonal leagues while Tremble may be the better dynasty bet. Ian Thomas is an afterthought.