NFL Power Rankings – Week 4
2018 NFL Power Rankings – Week 4
Welcome to my initial NFL Power Ranking for the 2018 season. Like most of the power rankings that are out there, mine start with a preliminary ranking using the team’s current W/L record. Teams are then ranked by their opponent’s W/L record (adjusted to not reflect losses sustained by the team being ranked), Turnover Differential and Scoring Differential. After all that has been accounted for, then (and only then) does the Eye Test or common sense come into play.
The Undefeated:
After 4 weeks of play, there are only two teams with a 4-0-0 record.
❶ Los Angeles Rams 4-0-0:
After week 3, the Ram’s Opponent’s Record was a paltry 1-6-0 (0.143). They should have been 3-0 as good teams beat the teams they should beat. What stood out was the margin of victory in these 3 games averaged 22 points a game! Then in week 4, they took on a team perceived to be in contention for a Super Bowl berth in the Minnesota Vikings and added another game to the win column. The Rams’ Turnover Differential is +4 (Rank = 3) and their Scoring Differential is +18.3 (Rank = 1)
❷Kansas City Chiefs 4-0-0:
The Chiefs wrapped up Week 4 with a win over divisional rival, the Denver Broncos. Young QB, Patrick Mahomes, appears to be as advertised and is surrounded by an above average group of skilled position players (and a more than adequate offensive line) evidenced by leading the entire league in points scored at 145. Unfortunately, they have also allowed the eighth most points scored against them and now have a Scoring Differential of +7.5 (Rank = 5) and a Turnover Differential of only +2 (Rank = 7)
The 1 Loss Teams:
❸Baltimore Ravens 3-1-0:
Ozzie Newsome’s parting gift to the franchise was to finally provide a set of Wide Receivers who can actually play the game at this level. Combine this new found offensive fire power with their historically stingy defense and it’s no wonder their Scoring Differential sits at +14.2 (Ranked 2nd only to the Rams). Opponents W/L record is 6-5-0 (Rank = tied for 10th with the Chiefs and Bengals) and Turnover Differential is +/-0 (Rank = 14)
❹ Chicago Bears 3-1-0:
What do you get when you take an up and coming young QB and add a defensive force in the form of Khalil Mack? You get my number 4 ranked team. While their opponent’s W/L record of 5-6-0 isn’t stellar (Rank = 20), like the Rams, they have beaten the teams they should have beaten and are only a tough two point loss to the Packers away from being undefeated on the season. And one of their victims (the Buccaneers) was a team that had already beaten the Saints, Eagles and Steelers – in that order. The Bear’s Scoring Differential is +11.5 (Rank = 3) and Turnover Differential is +6 (Rank = 2). This should be a fun year for Bears fans as their remaining opponent’s W/L record (after week 4) is only 0.429.
❺ Tennessee Titans 3-1-0:
There are no smoke and mirrors so far for the Titans. They’re a 3-1-0 team and they’ve done that against an Opponent’s Record of 8-4-0 (Rank = 1). Turnover Differential is only +1 (Rank = 11) and Scoring Differential is a paltry +0.5 (Rank = 13). This is a team that has won the close games and hasn’t been the recipient of turnover gifts from their opponents.
❻ Cincinnati Bengals 3-1-0:
I’ll fess up right here and now, I really don’t have the same conviction for the Bengals at #6 as I have on spots 1 through 5. Their 11 point win over the Ravens may have clouded my judgement. But the Bengals are sitting there at 3-1-0 with the same Opponent’s W/L record as the Chiefs and the Ravens. Their Scoring Differential is +5.8 (Rank = 7) and they haven’t blown anyone out so that tells me they can also win the close games. However, their Turnover Differential of -2 (Rank = 20) leads me to believe they may be on borrowed time.
❼ New Orleans Saints 3-1-0:
There is no question that the Saints can score points (137 of them, so far). But they have also given up 121 points for a Scoring Differential of +4.0 (Rank = 8). Here’s the problem; They have a Turnover Differential of -1 (Rank = 17) and they have compiled their 3-1-0 record against an Opponent’s Record of 4-7-0 (0.364) Rank = 26.
❽ Carolina Panthers 2-1-0:
The Panther are my highest ranked team that has already had their bye week. This is another team where their ranking may be a bit wanky. Their Opponents Record so far is 5-4-0 (Rank 9) and their Scoring Differential of +3.7 is also ranked at # 9. However, their Turnover Differential is +4 (Rank = 3).
❾ Green Bay Packers 2-1-1:
That week 3 loss to the Redskins had to sting. Even so, the Packers still have only 1 loss and a tie. Their Opponent’s W/L record is 6-5-0 (Rank 13). Turnover Differential is +1 (Rank = 11) and Scoring Differential is +2.3 (Rank = 11). This is the first team where the Eye Test trumped a 3-1-0 team such as the Dolphins.
❿ Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1-0:
The Jag’s only loss was to my #5 ranked team, the Titans. Their Opponent’s Record is a middle of the pack 6-6-0 (Rank = 14) and their Scoring Differential is a healthy +8.0 (Rank = 4). My problem with the Jags is their Turnover Differential of -4 (Rank = Dead Last in the league at 32).
Everyone else after #10 turns into a jumbled mess starting with the 2-2-0 Patriots at #11 all the way down to the 0-4-0 Cardinals and the 1-3-0 Lions at #’s 31 and 32 respectively.
