Who to keep?

Henry, Claypool.

Thats what I would do, but dont do what I do, lol.

 

Yeah, it's going to be tough to make an argument to lean in a different direction than what you're currently thinking.

Chase is one of my favorite fantasy players to be productive regardless of potential quarterback changes both this season and in the future. Brown is set to be one of the top 5 at his position for years to come.

The value you have on both of those players is too great too pass on, IMO.

 

Derrick Henry's a beast, I would ride with that as long as I could or he proved me wrong. He gives you the best chance of having a top 3 non-QB scorer in the league. For a 3rd rounder, I would keep Metcalf with him.. I don't think he will be available with that 3.06 pick. That's what I usually look at...

Will Henry be available at 1.06? No? Well then that's good value. Will Metcalf be available, no? Then that's a good value.

IMHO Harris has a chance to be there at 7? probably not, but he has a chance to score like a 7th rounder. Progress isn't guaranteed with him.

I actually like the value of A.J. Brown here a lot. Maybe more than Metcalf. Brown has a chance to score like Metcalf. Especially if Watson is still behind center. If I knew that answer, this would be a no brainer slam dunk.

Jamaal Williams, too much uncertainty, not enough to give up the highest ceiling potential of Henry.

Chase Claypool, GREAT value for a 15th rounder. But, I would rather spend a 6th rounder on him than lose the potential that the top 3 give you in Henry, Metcalf and Brown.

I don't want to leave out Aaron Jones, but if you are choosing between Henry and Jones at 1.06, you are choosing Henry all day long. The fact they are the same value automatically makes that decision for you.


Ask yourself this, Am I trying to make the playoffs or win the championship? If you want a championship, players like Henry win you championships.

Can you REPLACE him after the keepers are set and at 1.06? No way, no how. Unless every pick 1-5 are gone and you have the #1 pick of the draft. If you are assured of that, then I retract my entire post. If you know who is keeping who, that is valuable information in this scenario. If there is only 1 pick before you at 1.06, then you are losing Henry.

 

A drop-off after a 2K season is unavoidable. History suggests it will probably be a pretty steep one (besides the inevitable yardage drop, all 7 prior 2K rushers also dipped at least a full yard per carry the following year, and only 3 put up double-digit TD's). Can Henry buck the trend? Is he really a championship cornerstone at 1.06 if he only goes for, say, 1,200 yards and 7 TD's while still being a non-factor catching the ball?

 

Unfortunately, that’s not something any of us will know. You know what he is capable of, which is a lot more than the other choices. 1200 yards and 7 TDs could be the stat line for the two receivers in question also.

Again, tough call without knowing what the top 6 choices will be or who will forfeit their picks before you to keep a player.

 

Time to start thinking about what to do with this team from the OP again...

This year's candidates:

Justin Herbert - 4th
AJ Brown - 6th
Michael Pittman - 8th
Rhamondre Stevenson - 11th
Gabriel Davis - 13th
Chase Claypool - 13th*

Brown on a new team with an even more extreme run-first offense and worse QB scares the poop out of me, but he's still great value in the 6th.

Herbert isn't necessarily amazing value in the 4th with as deep as QB is, but he was QB#2 last year and could be even better this year. I know it's probably not the right decision but it's still tempting me.

Pittman with Matt Ryan now in the 8th is probably the closest thing to a slam dunk on this list for me.

Stevenson is probably a viable starting RB even in a committee with Harris (whom I also have but would cost a 3rd to keep...too rich with his tendency to get banged up and likely TD regression on deck), and if Harris were to miss any significant time or get traded away, Stevenson is pretty much a lock top 5 RB.

Can Davis carry his late season/playoff run over a full season?

Is Claypool as good as as he thinks he is? And does it even matter if his QB is Trubs or Baby Hands McGee?

Right now I'm kind of leaning toward Pittman/Stevenson but it's far from settled.

* if I were to keep both Davis and Claypool, one of them would bump up to the 12th round

 

Feeling good about Pittman.

Still waffling between Brown and Stevenson but leaning back toward Brown now.

Any Eagles fans or anyone else out there feeling super bullish on Brown with Hurts?

 

@LAOJoe ?

 

I'm really liking Brown with Hurts on a likely make or break year. Eagles have assets to go QB if they want to move on. Honestly he's likely going in the 2nd or 3rd round in most drafts. I'd pay the 6th and keep him.

 

In my mind those are the only four worth considering. I could argue Herbert is the safest keep of that group, with an even better O-line and it’s still not a top 24 pick.
If it were me, I would probably honestly go Herbert and AJ Brown, or if I want to cheap out I’d go Herbert and Gabriel Davis, because the drop off might not be huge, but it’s a significant draft round in difference.

My vote is Herbert and Brown, but substitute either Pittman or Davis if your heart desires