Trades and Potential Trades

Buffalo has five rental players and most will be moved. They talked about an extension with McGinn so it's possible he'd come back in July a la Moulson & McCormick, (and Steve Ott if we'd have him). McGinn is the most valuable of the lot.

With 11 picks now, mostly bunched in the 4-7 rounds I'm questioning the virtue of having more low picks. Who knows, after Terry Pegula stole some of DET's Swedish scouts, maybe they plan on drafting the next Datsyuk in the 6th.

I've got a hunch that TM may surprise everyone by buying at the deadline. Not rentals, but players that normally wouldn't be available at the deadline, but from a team with a huge cap headache.

 

good call dan, you can pillage anybody from the nucks roster for your 1st pick.

 

Even Hamhuis?!

 

take the hammer

 

I do think the value of 3rd-5ths is a little higher than it used to be, or it should be, at least in relation to late firsts or 2nds.

The current CBA allows for an extra year in Europe for draft picks and the NCAA is increasingly seen as a good option for development.

I think we'll see more and more 3rd-5th round picks get more NHL games as role players in the next half decade. The longer timeline franchises are allowed will make it easier for them to identify value with those picks imo.

 

I hear the hawks are tailing ladd.

 

Bob, I'd like to take a deeper dive on the draft value hypothesis. Do you think that going back to only 2000 would provide sufficient data? That's the first year of the 30-team draft, and I'd want rounds to match over the years. Of course I could take a chronological approach and weight the picks accordingly. (There was never a 15-team draft, for instance, but if there was then I could take everyone from the first two rounds and equate them to a first rounder now.)

This analysis would not reveal the "trade value" per pick per se, but could indicate if teams are getting better results from today's mid-round picks.

As a complete aside, I've heard that teams are not going to be willing to pay last year's price for this year's rentals. I think that's logical.

 

I think that's a real good place to start.

The real big issue I have with draft statistics has to do with how franchises staffed front offices and scouting departments. I think the late 90s, with all the relocations and cable money was when scouting really too off as a priority, but many franchises were left in the dark. Even today some franchises have relatively small staffs/resources.

I think the gap between 2nds through 5ths will have shrunk considerably from 98-2010 until 2011-through the next several years. I think the league and many front offices began to suspect and push for several CBA changes related to the draft around 2010 so many gms started to look to stay in front of opportunity. Unfortunately we have to wait a while to see it play out.

It's logical. I just have a tough time drawing a conclusion on deadline values because of the variables. While I think a given player's value could vary year to year, I think the value of 3rd-5th rounders to many franchises' has gone up.

I'm not sure if that makes sense. This topic should probably go in the numbers thread.

I'm guessing based on the type of players picked by a handful of teams, how the acquisition landscape seems (my perception only) to have changed, and how front offices seem to work on average.

There's a real good chance my guess on the trend could be worth used toilet paper after looking through the numbers.

 

That's what I'll be looking at the next several years. Mostly to see which gms/FOs look to stay in front of values and if they have their head up their collective arses or not. I think it's too early to get much info and you know as well as anybody that the success rate for picks has a high degree of variance for a given year or two.

The NCAA players are largely unsigned and first wave of 13' Euro players will find out if they get a contract or not from those rounds over the course of the next several months.

 

My concern is that this will be too small of a sample size to draw meaningful conclusions. It's not that 15 years is not a lot of data, it's just that some players taken in 2000 are still in the league, and many drafted more recently have played zero games. The lack of production from more recent draftees in no fashion reflects negatively on their value, (or at least potential value). Even established veterans still playing must be given an "incomplete" when measuring their production.

I'm more inclined to go back about ten more years, but throw out the last 3-5 years.

I can weight things based on draft slot rather than round; I can also include draft-year so any inference of change over these years can be revealed.

I do not want to go back 52 years, (full history), since the amount of data becomes staggering, but more importantly the level of draft sophistication has changed dramatically over the years.

 

I probably should just wait for someone else to do this analysis, and then sit back and read it.

 

analysis completed with the presumption and confirmation of total asswipes drafted by the nucks from 2005 - 2012. i would have done some other teams, but my head is swollen from pounding it against the wall. good nite

 

Report: Canadiens gauging trade market for P.K. Subban

According to a TVA Sports? Louis Jean, who cites an anonymous team executive, the Montreal Canadiens are gauging trade interest in all-star defenceman P.K. Subban.

Jean qualified his tweeted report by saying that he?s not suggesting general manager Marc Bergevin will trade his best player not named Carey Price. Jean says, to his knowledge, Bergevin is not shopping Subban.

?There is no question that the captain, Max Pacioretty, and Subban are not best friends,? Jean told Hockey Central at Noon Friday. ?[Subban] is a guy that does rub others the wrong way.?

Jean was careful to explain that the locker room understands Subban does win his team games. When a team undergoes a long stretch of losing, that?s when the finger-pointing begins.

So if ? and it?s a big if ? Bergevin were to consider trading his passionate quarterback, it would be easier to do so prior to this summer.

With the Canadiens in a free fall, the mood surrounding the team has grown toxic. Canadiens head coach Michel Therrien singled out Subban after Wednesday?s loss to the Colorado Avalanche for making an ?individual mistake.?
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Good stuff from Sportsnet. Probably just a bunch of hot air, but someone is going to have to go in Montreal.

 

I just read the rumors' report on The Hockey Writers, (which is far from a reliable source). One that made sense would be Loui Erikson going to ANA, the Ducks have an excess of good d-men, which is BOS's critical need. Those two make sense.

Then there was talk of the Sabres trying to move Matt Moulson. If TM gets a 7th rounder for him he'd be the star GM of the year; Matt and his 3 years remaining at $5MM is going to be, uhmm, hard to move, (besides his NMC). They go on to say he's almost certain to be bought out. Yikes! Not if you look at the buyout structure. The Sabres have no real choice but to retain Jack Eichel's personal valet and hope he rebounds a little next year. They do not really need the cap space for two years, and perhaps he'd have the good grace to retire by then.

Then there was the big reveal: the Sabres are asking for a 2nd for J. McGinn. Like we didn't already know that. (There are reasons to not trade him: he's bff with ROR, and he's actually really good for this team.). If he is moved (likely) don't be surprised if he comes back in July.

 

Leafs trade Matthias to Avalanche for Smith and a pick

Toronto sent 28-year-old Shawn Matthias to Colorado on Sunday afternoon for a 2016 fourth-round pick and prospect Colin Smith.

 

Leafs are busting out the moves. I cant believe Torres gets a job.

Lou is tearing it all down.

 

Wow, it's expensive to unload bad contracts like Torres. Polak and Spaling are nice but I'm guessing that Torres raised the price considerably.

Makes sense for SJ, they have to win, they (ownership) can't take another year out of the playoffs and they're first is already spent.

 

Not sure if torres is an expiring contract but thise 2 second rounders are a steep price.

 

I actually thought Chicago might have kicked the tires on Spaling. They gave up a 4th for Polak (Gunnarson retained salary trade). Now they're getting some back out of the Kessel and Gunnarson trade.

 

I thought Dallas was going to go for Polak if I were to guess. I thought SJ would have shot a little higher but it makes sense if they were upgrading elsewhere and getting Torres out of there.