Trades and Potential Trades

The East cannot be DOMINATE, only the WEST

 

How many times have they won or led their division this decade?
The Marlies have been beasts for a while now.

In 2012 the Grand Rapids Griffins missed the playoffs but carried 9 current NHLers, most of whom made significant contributions the next year. By contrast, the 13' team was stocked and won the whole thing, the 14' team might have been better, but the Griffins haven't been able to give the big team that "bump" for a while now despite the unprecedented expectations and success of that club. It doesn't matter, Detroit does business the same way no matter what and their success all failure of the callups has nothing to do with the affiliate's place in the standings.

The point is that the ability to win at the AHL level is not the same as being able to develop talent to slot into an NHL roster. Based on some of the moves they've made, letting Panik go, clearing slots to NYI, and a few of the other moves, I think they've finally "grown up" to realize that winning at the AHL is worthless outside of getting a few extra shifts.

That's my take on it anyway.

 

The big club just gutted the Marlies by taking out Frattin, Rupert, and Bailey today and moving out Panik a few weeks ago.

That's what I'm talking about with "growing up". They're going to start slotting roles and minutes in the affiliate to attract UFDAs and/or develop in my opinion. They don't give a shit about winning AHL games anymore. *THUMBSUP*

That's reason for optimism, it's also a major reason I'm suggesting fans get real comfortable for a long ride, because realigning all the contracts (and all the contract rights) to address depth, development, and to land unconventional targets from the NCAA/jrs (ufdas)/euros(ufdas) takes a really long time to get moving the right direction efficiently. There are going to be firings and hirings and promotions/demotions within the staff before they can be trustworthy enough to really support the big team.


Now I fully expect Shanny and the gang to contradict all of the opinions I've formed on the topic.

 

IT seemed like this year was going to suck for trades. It's been AWSUM and we still have weeks before the deadline.

I watch the next 2 weeks + with extra creepiness

 

The good on the marlies is they have nylander and kappanen doing good. The bad and misleading is you have TJ brennan and arcobello as their top scorers. They have marner and dermott still in the O. Outside of nyl and kapp, the rest of the club are potential bottom 6 for the big club. Brennan at 26 has already had a couple of go's in the nhl, maybe its time they give him another shot, I think arcobello's getting called up now.
I think the sens win this short term, you add dion to the blueline with karlsson already there, this could solidify the bluelune and give them a playoff push. The leafs win because if they had kept him he would've been a very expensive 34 year old d-man when they're ready to make a run. Not to mention the outside chance they have to sign stamkos now or maybe another big name.

 

That's a very good question. Buffalo is in a rather unique position: 1) they have cap room, and likely will for the next two seasons, 2) they have an owner that really, really, wants to bring championships to Pegulaville, 3) they have a GM that has been given free-reins to do what he feels should be done, 4) they have an extraordinarily loyal fanbase but one that's antsy for some fun after several years of pain, 5) they have exceptional-to-really good blocks in place; they do not have gapping-wide holes on the roster. They are also an organization that has run out of obvious trade pieces as sellers.

TM is likely to move any expiring contract that he does not feel will resign, (McGinn - they've made him an offer so it's now in his court). He could move any or all from among Franson, Weber, Legwand, even Gorges, and probably a couple of others, but none of these are close to being first-round pick worthy sales. They have over 20 picks in the next two drafts so a few more 3rd to 6th rounders does nothing for the organization.

Buffalo on paper obviously should be a seller - any team out of the playoffs should consider that course. I would not be surprised if TM takes on the role of a cautious buyer at the deadline. To do that effectively he'll need to package some of the above-mentioned flotsam with something young and intriguing. IMO, the most likely to be in this group are: J. Larsson, Z. Girgensons, M. Pysyk, and J. McCabe. I do not want any of them to be traded, (especially Girgs), but if it meant getting a top-six winger or a top-four dman then it should be done.

This type of trade is more likely to be completed in June, but especially if BUF is willing to take back a bad contract with limited term, then some teams may be willing to do it sooner.

 

That's from Adam Protzline. Those are the names on the list watching NYI-CLB.

Is Detroit going for Hartnell (nice and old and expensive), Johnson (Michigan boy), or a prospect that's been shopped for a year-ish in Rychel?

 

Good old don luce, a leaf scout.

 

Bob, you said earlier that phaneuf's trade value hasn't gone up from last year at this time. I think this deal proves you wrong. Last year they would've had to eat up at least $1.5M of his deal, they never would've got this kind of return last year including the second rounder.

 

It's pretty obvious now that Buffalo and Boston both wore themselves out on Saturday. BUF lost 7-4 and it was 9-2 for BOS.

Matty, I hope you, at least, got some good shuteye after a weekend o' TEH hockey.

 

Wrong board, sorry.

 

You may be right.

I don't see how some retention offsets the lack of any substantial building block or pieces that could be combined to land a building block. The cap situation has only worsened, significantly, over the last 11 months too, lowering his value.

I was expecting useful assets coming back that they could build on long term. The Leafs have next to nothing for one of the 40-50 legitimate top pair dmen in the league. I remain convinced that the retention of Gunnarsson is getting in the way, that was a terrible trade as it restricts their return on other rentals from the limited number of teams that can fit (or want to fit) those pieces.

Phaneuf got one 2nd, injured and declining Michalek, a project prospect, and a very inconsistent limited dman that will probably never thrive under Babcock. That's a top pair dman (most teams) for nothing except cap relief during a team when half the roster will or should be on cost controlled contracts including some ELCs and initial extensions. The return is nothing short of very underwhelming. TOR will be able to trade to teams to get them to retain salary too.

While I don't think anything is there to suggest that TOR got a better return now than they would have, I think timing is major component to the trade. Too many things happen with big bodies, and if he takes an injury he might not be able to be traded no matter the return. After taking the risk of keeping him last year, I think it was safer to just unload him now rather than risk him staying forever like Franzen for example. Even though a better return is possible given the need for dmen on teams with space this year and next, playing the market increases the risk as he ages.

I still don't like that they kept him over the last 11 months, but I do like that they were decisive about moving him now.

 

Nonis put them in a bind and they needed bailing out, getting rid of the whole $7M for the next 5 years is a big win, then of course the outside chance of the 2nd rounder and lindberg panning out.

 

early Tuesday morning was no fun after the game Monday night. small price to pay.

 

Curious to see what Dallas does.

For Nill, I think he'll sit back outside of minor adds with redundant prospect dmen and/or mid to late picks being available for swaps.

I try like hell to clear out some of my contract slots, Nill has overloaded the system too much. Only 11 prospect contracts expire and he's extending at least 4 of them and one is going to have to used on a goalie. Anyway, that situation needs some sorting out.

If I'm above Nill, Honka and Nichushkin are available, and all my picks. Go for it now, not because they can win but because they need to get revenue back up. Ticket revenue and prices were suppressed because of previous ownership. It's really hard to jack up prices to where they should be without alienating season ticket holders. Give them a reason to pay and fight for their seats. Hemsky, Sharp, Oduya, and Spezza have questionable windows, as do the goalies anyway. Benn gets an extension for 18' so this team should go for it now in my opinion. It's best for the business and will allow Nill more resources long term even though they won't make the best long-term approach to personnel. I'm making a number of decisions about Gaglardi btw. Klingberg, Benn, and Seguin will still be there to build around in 4 years if it doesn't go well.

I don't think it's a good idea for Dallas to stay put.

 

do it.

 

Got up at 3 am (1:00 my time) Wed. to fly back to Denver. It was nice to get back to nice weather (~70 yesterday in CO). So I'm dragging ass a bit, but, as you sagely put it: small price to pay.

If Ehrhoff wants to stay in the NHL then he has to entertain the notion of going back to Buffalo.

 

Mike Weber is available, and he's Lindy's kind of guy too. Package Weber with their choice of Larsson, or... really anyone but Eichel, Reinhart, ROR, and Ristolainen, and throw in a '17 2nd. Prove 'em wrong TM; that you do like Russians.

 

i think the price would be much higher than that Dan.

 

That same line of thought (the benefits from the non-hockey side of the house) is why I liked what Ottawa did as well.

Ottawa was saved over 4 million for their budget next year with the Phaneuf trade. They downgraded at LW (but have options in the system) and they upgraded Cowen.

Murray or his replacement gets to better address a need or gets to manage the book for the boss without making the team any worse, I think that's important. To me, it wasn't just a hockey trade for Ottawa. Either Murray wants to do something else or he was given orders to cut losses for the club from Melnyk. From that perspective, this is good for Ottawa even if Phaneuf disappoints later.

Something else to consider for trades moving forward, contract structures. Bonus payments are usually made over the summer, lowering the total salary below the cap hit after that date. Ottawa is going to pay Phaneuf about 2 million of the 8 he was getting this year instead of 3.6 ish because of the bonus from my understanding (I can't verify the bonus date but almost all are similar). Murray still owed about 3.5 million to Greening, Cowen, and Michalek this year. Ottawa doesn't work within the cap, they work within their budget more than anything (Karlsson recently verified this like a dbag). Assuming Murray can spend to his budget for the year, he's probably freed up about 6 million in AAV for the deadline.

Don't add and subtract cap AAV (annual numbers) for Ottawa, take salaries to determine what they can and can't do (unless the cap comes into play). The next step is to guess if Melnyk is saving money or if Murray is saving money and then go from there.