Trades and Potential Trades

This is far from exact; it's just a quick guestimate on the Leafs cap status after today's trade. They are $3-4MM net plus salary through June 2017. After that, this trade gives them roughly $5MM more cap space for another several seasons.

With the talent in their pipeline, and the allure or their market, I think they can become very aggressive builders at that point. Babs has stamina; he's not going anyplace, and I think he's proven this season that he can take any collection of players and make them look better than they are. They're going to be a lot more talented in a couple of years. I think Leafs' have a legitimate case for optimism.

 

9 players is a monster deal. tons of cap spaces changing. hope it works out for both sides...

 

The leafs before the cap era and we're talking the 90's and early millenium used to just buy their way to stay in the playoffs. They had cujo, roberts, niewendyk, they had sundin and kaberle on the books. They never really adjusted properly to the cap era, and now they finally look like they're taking the right approach. Fans here want to see a cup, and being a middle of the road team won't get them anywhere. They need to draft their kanes, kopitars, doughty's, crosby's, sick and tired of being on the outside looking in, and drafting kadri at 7th or gauthier at 20th. A lot of apathy with fans taking a wait and see approach, I think the pain will pay off in five years time, only way to go.

 

I do not see their situation as similar to Buffalo in 2013. Unlike the Sabres, the FO is already in place. The key to a rebuild is not found on the ice; it's the FO.

As for being compared to CHI and LAK; fans for 28 teams would like to have those comparables. I think the Leafs' FO is impatient for success, and they're smart enough to know that's going to take a little time. But I expect the Leafs will be challenging for the playoffs in '17-'18.

 

It's not different in my opinion. Teams like Chicago have been winning because the have players getting 87 million on a 71 million dollar cap. The "right way" cliches' almost always over look that part. Minnesota, PHI, Detroit, NYR, MTL have all embraced that they can spend more than cap and they actually try to do that. Toronto hasn't because of poor management. Now they're finally utilizing the advantage they have. They see the value in contract slots and slot management (too early but I'm assuming one goes with the other) and they have spent huge beyond player cap hit (staff, coaches, IR, etc.). When the contract structures start getting interesting, I think we'll see this again.

Losing Phaneuf's contract was huge, I think it would have been huger last year or even better next year. They took on 2 gambles, and a pick for a player that will be very difficult to replace even if they have 3 years to find one. I do agree that when TOR is ready to win, Phaneuf's contract would be in the way the last 2 or 3 years.

I think it's going to work because they're not trying to do anything different. They're not taking any shortcuts. They've just told the fans that they're sitting on their ass to accumulate assets for 2 years. They have 3 contract slots open, they're eating a ton of capspace every summer with Horton out, and they have more vets to flip. They are doing a complete teardown to nothing over there, including the business side.

It's going to take a full extra year just to align the developmental system imo. It's the same thing Chicago did, but Chicago had different parts moving at different times. Detroit and Montreal were the first ones to do most of it successfully imo. LA was able to do it all at once too, and that took 3 full years just to pick up steam. Chicago didn't have the system fixed/aligned until 2012 for example but they were trying as soon as Tallon was removed. They were winning off of depth acquired 5-7 years previously.

I really don't think the system is going to help out Toronto much the next couple of years outside of the high-end talent. It's a long painful process to do what Chicago, Detroit, and LA have done to align every minor transaction with the goals of the business and the big team. In the meantime, they'll be eating money on Horton (LTIR usage has rules) Greening, Michalek, Phil, etc. They're still going to be very restricted in some areas and they still have money to move.

There's going to be nothing to watch on the ice in Toronto next year that will mean much of anything moving forward imo. Long term, that's a good thing. I think the big cue that they're going to turn the corner is going to be when Lou is moved out of way.

 

Taking on Michalek and Greening tells me they are willing to tank for this year and next.

A tear down and rebuild goes on in several areas at once. The FO, the business side, the big team, the farm, the cap/budget, etc. We agree on the importance of the FO. I believe Buffalo had a business plan established before hockeyops was set up, I think the business plan been ongoing in Toronto this year. Time Leiweke and his staff weren't booted until just a few months ago. The MLSE board isn't going to move as efficiently as Pegula was able to for the biggest moves.

While Toronto is better off at the top of hockey ops, they have much bigger mess at all levels of players they have under contract and under rights compared to Buffalo. It's bigger, uglier, and more cumbersome to get out from that mess. I made the comparison because off all things combined, as a pie or bucket for example, Toronto is as filled up as Buffalo was in 13' in my opinion. There are plenty of differences.

Anyway, I do believe each franchise is unique and comparisons are very difficult to make. As I mentioned recently on another thread, I don't see Toronto making a turnaround until 2019. Most I've told that too believe it will be sooner. The basis for that is my comparisons to how rebuilds went and didn't go in other cities. I think Toronto will "try" to win more games in 18' but the actual turnaround won't happen until after 18'.

 

I really think this trade (the disappointing return) tells everybody they have no intention of taking any shortcuts. I think the extra 2 years of dog poop will be worth it when the dumpster ride is over. The ride is much more pleasant when hope and high expectations are removed.

 

I was just thinking about the giant crap Ottawa just took. They have to be feeling much better about things in OTT today. 2 bad contracts and a disappointment because of injuries.

 

I saw these elsewhere

 

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I think it comes down to a simple difference of opinion - of perspective on things. No one knows what the outcome for TOR will be.

I don't think they're "tanking" for a couple of reasons:
- With the current draft lottery format, I do not think any team is going to risk the extreme suckitudinous and opprobrium by both hometown fans and league-wide sentiment by overtly trying to be bad. Imagine if BUF had picked #4 overall the past 2 seasons; people would not be giddy in Buffalo today, (and they are believe it or not), giddy.
- TOR has no need to tank, being bad is not going to require effort; it'll come naturally. Meanwhile, their stellar prospect pool can only benefit from not being rushed, Most of the money from this trade comes off the books after next season, and they will not be hogtied by Phaneuf's contract. I think they already have much of the talent needed to be a competitive team in a couple of years, and that is before the solid '16 draft.

 

I think, on the other hand, that Babs is enough of an egotist to believe that he will mold them both into fine rental trade chips by Feb. 2017,

 

amen to that.

 

I don't think tanking is for the purpose of Auston Matthews as much as it's a reason to commit to the plan and the numbers game. They're going to go with quantity over time. A team like TB or FLA has an accidental good season and things get fucked up.

You're much more optimistic about Toronto's pool and prospects than I am. The Marlies haven't been able to support anything well for a number of years and they haven't been able to slot players into spots where other teams want those assets either.

I disagree about having enough talent to compete well in 18'. They lost 2 core players and Bernier might not be the answer afterall.

 

Going back to Buffalo, which young player do they move out?

Murray has to be thinking about targetting some of the RFA wings out there. The cap is going to be snug again and there will be opportunities to plug some holes.

 

Babs will see that as a challenge, PA and matthias looked like they were going to get 2nd round picks back in december, now it looks like they might get 3rd's. Only guy I see going for a 2nd rounder right now would be roman pollack.

 

I'll speak for myself; if I was really good at this armchair-GM stuff then I'd trade it in for an NHL gig. Meanwhile, it's been fun actually discussing an NHL team without the frequent histrionics associated with such endeavors.

I love that Finn they got from PIT, and I coveted Marner a year ago. They've got some other nice pieces, too. All I really care about is that the EC becomes dominate in a couple years since Buffalo will want some good warm ups for their perennial run at the Cup.

 

Bob, the marlies are a powerhouse this year, give them some time. Which reminds me I have to go see a game this year.

 

Marlies are 37-8 compared to rochester at 23-21.

 

Be careful when equating an AHL record with the quality of a team's pipeline. A team can, and often does, buy a winning minor league team with veteran AHLers. That's just a general cautionary note.

However, I agree with you skinny. The Marlies are winning primarily due to exceptional prospects.

The Amerks are, uhmm, undecided on what they want to be. A strong talent-feeder to Buffalo, or a veteran laden AHL juggernaut. Half way on both has made them a .500 club. Still, Buffalo does have a top-ten prospect pool.

 

Toronto's pipeline is a prime reason I'm high on their future. That, along with a FO that appears to be savvy enough to allow them to develop slowly, (read - in most cases - develop properly).

PHL & TOR are in a similar place in many respects. IMO, the key differentiators are that PHL does not appear willing to admit that they must submit to the pain of rebuilding. Also, TOR may have a top-5 pool, whereas PHL's is definitely top-30.