Yes I was talking FA...I shuld have been more specific....u can sell all the want 2 b here stuff, but we all know most players(prime yrs) want 2 break the bank....thats what Im talking bout when I use the word compete....lets use Danny Shelton....lets say when his contract is up and he is top 10 DL in the league he will want 2 get paid...the Browns may view him at #8 or 9 but he can get top 5 $ so according 2 ur fair value tough man stance he will b gone? If thats the case they will hardly ever resign their guys and b in a complete cycle
It's actually 3 drafts Lym...not to argue semantics here, but Bitonio and Greco have two years left on their contracts...which would include drafts in 2016, 2017 and 2018 to replace them...then the 2019 draft would also be included after "losing" Thomas, Erving and Bailey after the 2018 season...Add into the fact Erving has a 5th year option being a first round draft pick, then you can add the 2020 draft to replace him if needed... So that is 4 drafts (or 5 counting Erving's option year) when including the entire offensive line before the start of the 2019 season, when there is no offensive lineman signed on the current roster. Now add in the fact, not assumption, that starting offensive linemen are found throughout the draft, not merely in the first two rounds and you have quite a bit of opportunity to replace them. Even if there are no extra draft picks, over 4 drafts, that is 28 draft picks...In 2016 alone, we currently have 10 picks, so that number grows immediately to 32 draft picks currently available between now and 2019. There are only 5 starters in the NFL on the offensive line, so you would only have to spend 15% of those picks on the o-line to replace them...that is if you refuse to re-sign any of them, I am also assuming they can spend minimal contract allowance on backups in free agency. Right now, so that I can back up my statement, I went through all 32 teams starting depth chart and this is how the starters look by round: 1=43 2=24 3=27 4=18 5=7 6=9 7=7 UDFA=25 So, you are just as likely to sign an undrafted free agent who develops into a starter, as drafting one in the 2nd or 3rd round. Taking these numbers into consideration... We could spend ONE 1st round pick over the next 4 drafts, ONE 2nd round pick over the next 4 drafts, ONE 3rd round pick over the next 4 drafts and ONE 4th-7th round pick over the next 4 drafts...4 draft picks in 4 drafts...and if picked correctly, they would average the NFL's starters across the board...the rest, well use all those extra 90 man roster spots on O-linemen that don't get drafted and choose which one or two to keep each year to develop... Then, re-sign at least one of these draft picks and we should be good to go..
Not at all... My "fair value tough man stance" takes that into account... Using Mitchell Schwartz as the example, they actually offered him $500k MORE than fair market value. They merely gave him the stipulation that the offer goes when his leaves the negotiation table...he left and so did the offer. This set a precedence that they will be fair, but they want the commitment to the team by accepting that offer. If they want to snoop around to see if they can get an extra $500K over 4 years, well then enjoy the extra $125k per year, moving expenses and hearing your wife and children complain about changing school districts...It's pretty simple. It doesn't mean they will not sign anyone...not in the least...
Btw, I didnt mean u were being a tough guy but the Browns w their take it or leave it mentality....how does Schwartz know what he will get on the open market until he tests it? Mayb he gets offered $1.5 mill more yr...IMO, if this is the way their gonna operate, their in BIG BIG trouble
Also better hope Erving shows more than last year when he got blown up about every play . he is weak .another first round screw up by Farmer .I hope Farmer has a Dawg. a big one and it bites him in the crotch ..really really hard !
The main problem with that Irish is what I was discussing earlier - the reality of how difficult it is to hit on all your draft picks. Even if the Browns hit on 50% of their picks that they make on the line over that time period you would have to double your math if they need to get all of those players replaced. From around pick #130 on, the rate of players that will fail at the NFL level is over 50% and closer to 60% (increasing significantly to over 70% by the 6th round) which makes the math readjust again to more than doubling down on any pick after the third round.
I think too many people take shots at Depodesta just because he came from baseball. Like he has never seen a football before or is even aware of the game's existence. He played college football and tried getting into football out of college only to find work in MLB. He has also worked in the CFL and AHL. He's not a one trick pony who is just winging it. He definitely deserves a better shake than most are giving him.
Im not sure its so much that as the whole "Moneyball" idea....football is a physical sport and if my DT is beating the piss out of ur OG all yr long it wont matter what bargain or fair value u got w the OG
Technically you are correct. 3 drafts, not 2. But if you take the timeline you outlined, then you will have two rookie starting guards beginning in 2018, two more rookie starting tackles in 2019 and then a rookie center in 2020. Explain to me, if you will, just how do you get these five players who join the team over a three year stretch, to maintain any semblance of cohesiveness when, at best, there is a 40% turnover for the first two years. Rome wasn't built in a day and neither are offensive lines. This is precisely why I got so bent out of shape with how the Mitchell Schwartz thing went down. You want to make a point for future free agents? Fine. But why not do it with Gipson or Benjamin? Not with a player who is part of a five man line that has to seamlessly work as one unit. Not with a player who fits, to the letter, the type of player that this regime is allegedly looking for. {edit} I also discovered that I forgot to mention that of the eight backup O-linemen currently on the roster - every one of their contracts expire after THIS season. That means not only do you need to draft replacement starters, you also need to draft backups.
Just to clarify . . . I'm not taking shots at DePodesta. Yet. It's with Sashi Brown's negotiating tactics that I take umbrage.
Yes, and that's true for all 32 teams...So, even with my remedial math, I was merely stating that it isn't impossible to replace players...If you take a hardline stance of keeping 10 UDFA per year and using all of that on linemen, over a period of time, you should be able to find players to develop if you are in a system that stays consistent for a long time period. We have had roster turn over on average of every 2.5 years over the last 19 years...THAT is the recipe for disaster, not looking at expiring contracts of the offensive line over a 4 draft period... The fact we have a line, that currently has (2) first round picks, a 2nd, 3rd and UDFA projected as the 2016 starters...and ALL of them are signed for the next two seasons at least...According to league averages, we are ahead of the curve. One of the 1sts, the 2nd and the 3rd round pick are all solid starters...the other 1st is in his second year and the first year playing the position he was drafted to play...That is a pretty damn good foundation as far as NFL offensive lines are concerned. Thomas will be replaced over the next 3 years, it is inevitable considering he is 31. That would be my presumptive first round pick in one of those drafts, but who knows... And, when a draft pick doesn't work out after 2 years, you use another one. It all comes down to 3 things... 1) drafting ability 2) QB 3) Coaching ability THAT is the recipe for success when you can hit on all three.
I understand where you are coming from. I'm simply pointing out that if the Browns do end up in a situation where they need to replace 4 starters on the line (not accounting for depth) they will most likely need some help in FA because the proposition of getting those players through the draft in such a limited space in time has history working against it. I would say that you are ahead of the curve if you can retain them. If not, then having them on the roster now does nothing moving forward.
This is all fine and dandy discussion, but we're dancing around the big news here: Johnny Manziel got a new tattoo!!
I would be tempted to change that to: 1. QB 2. QB 3. QB Once you have an answer there, you can actually build a team to win any number of ways, as long as you play to your QB's strengths. Until that time, you're spinning your wheels and cycling through your UDFAs.
That's because the backups on this current roster are doing just as I suggested...It is made up of (1) 7th round draft pick and all of the rest are (5) 2015 UDFA, (1) 2013 UDFA (Alvin Bailey, who has started 8 games and played in 43 over the past 3 seasons) and (1) 2012 UDFA (Garth Gerhardt, who has been on and off Cleveland's practice squad since 2012)...All of them would be evaluated for their development probability this off season...Some or all could be replaced by 2016 UDFA after the draft to compete for roster/practice squads in 2016.
Well, I am ASSUMING, this regime doesn't intend on never re-signing a draft pick as long as they are running the front office. We are getting a little punch drunk to assume they will never re-sign an in house free agent... That is why I think this discussion is a little silly.... This is the beginning of the plan. That plan will develop and open up depending on where the roster stands, imho. When the team is ready to compete, that is when the free agent market actually becomes a useful tool.
If that were true, the analytics would say... 2016{EDIT} NFL Draft #2 overall Goff/Wentz #32 Connor Cook #65 Cardale Jones Let them develop behind RGIII for 1-2 years and pick the best of the group to move on with (including RGIII)...If all you are doing is losing over those two years anyway, identifying the best available would be a starting point for winning in the future. If you have the #1 overall pick in 2017, replace RGIII (since he is obviously an epic failure) with the best QB available and let one of the 3 you drafted in 2015 start in 2017...
I'm not assuming anything and I have not suggested that they will not attempt to resign homegrown talent. If they follow the plan that you discussed in earlier posts regarding free agency it is within reason to believe that free agents at the beginning of this tenure may opt to leave considering the compensation for staying will be a flat line, the wins will still be short and the grass will appear greener on the open market (better money, better opportunity). It will be tough to be competitive over the next 2 seasons so if the FO is unwilling to overpay to a degree the likelihood of players departing is pretty strong. That is why when Lyman suggested that the OL could become devoid of the current starters at the end of their contracts he was pointing out a realistic possibility and one of my concerns with the approach. At an average of 21 draft picks over the next 3 years, how many holes can the Browns potentially fill that exist currently and how many more will be created over that span? It's a legitimate question for all 32 teams but even more so for a team that is attempting to rebuild in this fashion.
First and foremost, I don't believe the policy moving forward is to never re-sign a player that enters free agency... Second.. If you draft an offensive lineman in 2016, he can learn behind the current projected starters in 2016, then he can (hopefully) replace one of the current starters (who still has a year left on his contract mind you) in 2017...draft another in 2017, who will have a year to learn the system before the other 2018 free agent leaves and can move into his spot...then draft another in 2018, who will have a year to acclimate to the offense before the others are release into free agency in 2019...all the while, you have accumulated your UDFA's who have been developing in the system since 2016 and one-two should be ready to slide into their role in 2019...Remember, Erving has that 5th year option that you are implementing, so your 2019 draft pick will have a year to learn the system before he leaves for free agency in 2020.... Pretty simple actually...
