The Ditch part deux

Reading Kings related material.

Some very knowledgeable Kings fans and writers out there, much better than I expected, many of them calm too which is weird for sports fans. Unfortunately many acknowledge their unbelievable stretch of good health last year and they believe the banged up roster is just the odds taking care of things. They don't quite know that they've been Suttered.

I'm not assuming the Hawks are going to win, because we've seen Q take a perfectly good lineup and throw it in the blender before. LA still has Quick and alot of firepower (Sutter won't release), so it's going to take more than a couple injuries and banged up players to knock them out, especially in LA. I think a few Hawks are starting to show a little wear, fortunately the big players still look good.

The back to back really favored the Hawks. Quick's positioning was not very good last night, I think some of that had to do with the schedule. 3 games in 4 nights is something Chicago is much better suited for given the roster construction. I'll be very happy up 2-1, but 3-0 is much gooderer.

 

If the Blackhawks can steal the next one on the road, that would sure be un-real. Kings play pretty well at home.

 

aahahahhaa, Lennie. thats good bob. Lennie seems to think that Dallas Eakins is on the move. First NYR getting an interview and now Dallas. Hope he ends up in Dallas w/ his name and all.

Hawks really took it to the Kings last night. Hoping LA can get back in this and at least push it to 7. Smart move by Crawford not obliging the onlooking Bernier, would've been great though. Bernier quietly solid, might be a nice RFA signing by a team that want to throw a little something over at him. Would think that the Kings would have a hard time matching. Speculation every year about teams signing other RFAs, never happens though, especially w/ goalies.

 

I have no idea who will land who with the coaching hires.

I think Dallas is a stronger contender than they are given credit for because I think the coach there will be allowed to control more of the team construction.

Following AV seems like a bad scenario for anybody. Vancouver has a terrible prospect pool and declining assets, I think Gillis is pretty good, but it may cause trouble for him hiring a young coach. A young coach may kill his career in Vancouver. NYR is such a circus, I think it might be easier to recover from a bad stretch over there...did I mention my thoughts on Nash?

 

The Bernier story has been a big one for 3 years now. Lombardi gambled, I think he's a good gambler. Lots of goalies on the market now, Bernier's return won't be what I think it was a year ago with a declining cap.

I think we will see some offer sheets thrown around this year. Looking at teams with a high caps or tight budgets, I see lots of RFA targets for offer sheets including but not limited too (this is just a list from looking at the standings, I'll refine it in a few weeks):

Bernier
Pietrangelo
Shattenkirk
Stewart
Berglund
Bogosian
Leddy
McDonough
Demers
Boedker
Galiardi
Bailey
Hagelin
Hamonic
Voynov (not sure if he's eligible, I'll have to check his birthday).
Clutterbuck
Blum
Stepan
Little
Wheeler
Burmistrov
Bogosian

Some of these names will be immediately scratched off my list as soon as we get an idea about what the offseason targets will be. Cap pressure, budgets, and the scouting will cause more gms to consider offersheets I think.

Assuming no changes in the CBA (these numbers may be a few % high):

I'm not sure why gms wouldn't consider up to a 3.3 offer, front loaded, for 5 years if it only cost a 2nd for just about any of the players I listed. I don't like all the players but I can see value depending on the franchise.

I look at a marginal player like Kris Russel on STL. He's a 5-7 dman. Acknowledging the systemic and roster needs in Van, I think a moderate overpayment like a 4 year by 1.5 offer sheet be worth a shot on him. Lots more players like that. Too many teams with too many quality scouts now, I don't see as many players falling deep in the draft like we saw in 2006 and before. I'm wondering how long before gms start risking their picks (outside of the top 50 overall) on lesser depth players. We might have to wait until more of the ex-players are out of executive roles, the good ol' boy thing.

Anyway, I haven't combed through all the offseason plans yet, Chicago keeping me busy. I can't wait to see what's going to happen this summer.

 

on paper that all makes sense but i'll believe it when i see it regarding the signing of offer sheets. you're totally right though about signing solid players for up to $3.3 and only giving up a 2nd. Id think a team that needs goaltending help or youth could easily sign Bernier to something like $2.25 per and the Kings would not match. Only giving up a 2nd for a guy like him would be a steal.

 

whats Leddy looking at for a contract bob?

 

I have no idea. It's pretty easy to figure out a ballpark number and length for what the core players are going to get but I have no idea about everybody else. Hjalmarsson saw a matched offersheet. Crawford saw a strange type of extension but he was older.

Since Leddy is NOT arbitration eligible, I'm thinking he gets a low bridge contract to line up with a big raise upon the expiration of Oduya's contract. We still haven't seen enough for me to identify a pattern with Bowman.

I'm hoping for 12 million over 4. Kane and Toews expire in 2015 and Seabrook in 2016. Leddy will still be a Rfa in 2 years, but I don't think he'll want to have to worry about Seabrook, Leddy, and Saad at the same time. I'm hoping for a 4 year term.

I agree with you completely. We can still count all the offer sheets that have gone out. Penner, Weber, Hjalmarsson, Kesler, Backes, O'Reilly, Bernier, and Vanek. We've only seen 8 in 8 years with the cap. I do think we'll see 3 or more this year, but I would never bet on seeing more than 2. If we see 8 or so, I won't be too surprised because too many gms are screwing around with RFAs too often. Cost controlled players are the most valuable assets in the league right now, after stacked front offices. With the FA classes generally looking like crap (currently and with the benefit of hindsight), I think it's just a matter of time before gms are forced to use offersheets because of demands from above.

On paper, Holland, Fletcher, Bergevin, Lou, Nonis, McPhee, Wilson, and Gillis are in a prime spot to justify an offersheet to primary or depth players given needs, cap space, and prospect pools (or lack of). We know a few gms have been involved in the RFA offsheet game or are willing to sign one. I wish I knew which ones would use the offersheet rules.

 

Lennie (all of Lennie) is busy stockpiling speculative FA signing articles as I type this.

I think there is an article to sign Bickell and Stalberg in every Canadian city already, and every other city.

Thanks to the late schedule, we'll have a couple less weeks to read all the b.s.

 

Hawks signed a Euro I wanted. Finnish goalie Anti-Rants. Seems like a positive person.

He's not a monster like Niemi, Rinne, etc. but he's been very good. Hawks system is years away from being able to provide a solid 2 or even a 3 option in net.

I think a bunch of gms, including Fletcher were going after him hard. Bowman did well with this move. Not sure if he'll work out as a backup or AHL starter even, but Raanta was probably the best option to get another cost controlled pro goalie in Chicago. I like the idea of him (since I've never seen him play) over Karlsson. He'll probably be the most talented goalie Rockford has had in 3 years.

 

Capgeek has already shifted to offseason form.

 

gotta love a guy named auntie.

 

Despite what Chicago Lennie will say and speculate, I strongly feel this signing was done independent of their offseason plans with the backup goalie position.

Emery probably too expensive to retain, but I don't think they'll throw Raanta into a legitimate crack at the backup slot in his first year.

I'm in a very good mood about this signing even though it means very little in the near future. Bowman really doing a great job loading up the system to plug holes of all types. It's about contracts 1-35, not just 1-20 over the course of a season. Have to have address every possible injury in the system. Hawks really strengthened system depth in 2 areas the last month. Would have never thought one of the top NCAA kids and top Euro goalies would be signed by Chicago given their situation and competition.

 

the goalie signing makes sense to me. LeBlanc signing is a head scratcher. Tough lineup to crack w/ better younger prospects up front in hand too.

 

They're better in the talent sense, but I'm not so sure they're legitimate NHL players any quicker than LeBlanc for some situations. Danault and McNeil still have a ways to go. Pirri just seems to have something missing, and KHayes may not sign this summer, not that he's ready anyway. I'll have to check but I think LeBlanc has been to a couple prospect camps, so each side is familiar with the other too.

 

I like Pirri and Hayes. the Hawks got a nice system thanks to all the unloading of players for picks. McNeil I think will be good in time kinda like Patrick Sharp, hes a specialist IMO and put in the right situation he'll thrive guarantee. Danault not so much, he was QMJHL wasnt he, and we all know how much to read into those inflated numbers from the Q. Hawks are gonna be good for years. thanks for leaving us Scotty. If I was Illitch I wouldve hired the whole family tree if thats what it was gonna take to keep him

 

I also like Saad, hes solid

 

saad, solid... salad

 

-
Less shocking, people die all the time from tornados, hardly anyone takes a stingray stinger to the heart.

I think its more shocking a storm chaser hasn't died before now.

Krike!

I miss that bloke, why couldn't it have been Terri?