Prospects, and the future of the NHL

According to an article on nhl.com today, it says he'll be going to Aug.15 and wgr confirmed it too.

 

He has been very consistent in stating all along that he expects to see this process through until Aug. 15th. That does not make anything official, however. The only thing they have confirmed is that he has said this.

He has also stated, (more recently than newspaper articles proclaiming his intent to wait), that he is "open to anything" with his discussions later today with the Sabres.

I believe he has been very methodically vetting the small number of teams on his list. Most of that work has probably been done, but he's had only a few days to assess the FA and draft additions that the teams have made to their org. Since the org. structure is one of his stated priorities it is very reasonable that he would wait well after July 1.

I doubt that they sign a deal today since Buffalo cannot overwhelm them with dollars. I think there is a reasonable chance that this does go until Aug. 15. But there is also a chance that he signs with the Sabres before then. If it goes to Aug. 15 the Sabres chances are lower than they are today of securing his services, but they will remain one of the frontrunners.

 

I still think the Pens lose in the first round in the 16' postseason.

 

i do not see the aug 15th logic. that doesn't get him any closer to ufa. maybe his name will be in papers and on websites and he is just marketing himself for the next month. i doubt his game is gonna grow as much in the next month. once he's signed, his name will no longer be front page stuff, since he is just a prospect. why not hold out until sep 15th, one week before camps?

 

Aug. 15 is the legal date that his entry level contract that he signed with nashville expires, making him an FA. Nobody knows how long he'll take to decide, he could likely drag it on a month or two right before camp, but there's only so much he could earn as he hasn't proved anything yet.

 

Vesey never signed an ELC. That's what makes him a FA. After four years NAS lost his rights. Aug. 15 is the date the NHL set. He could stay unemployed for as long as he wishes after that.

 

That's true, they have up to 4 years to sign him after he's drafted. The 4 years expires on aug.15 making him an FA according to the latest CBA, when dealing with unsigned college players.

 

For what it's worth, vesey's agent sent an email to TM and told him that they were pleased with the way everything went. Vesey's dad was there too.

 

I want to step back a bit and give a better explanation for my thought process and why I think Buffalo is likely to sign him. It may be at first considered a risky thing to do, but Jimmy Vesey has made this less chancy.

I have tried to put myself in his shoes and tried to think like I think he's thinking. The reason that I believe that this is less chancy than most situations is that Vesey has been extremely forthright* in outlining the factors that he'll consider and base his decision on. (* There's always a risk that what I interpret as forthrightness is actually smokescreen, but I do not believe Vesey's character can be challenged at this point.)

Vesey has graduated from a prestigious college; he is in fact a very intelligent man. He is one that finds himself in the very rare position of being able to dictate** to the NHL and not the usual other way around. (** He can dictate place but not dollars & term for two years.). I'd expect a smart man to be very deliberate in his choice by carefully considering all options. There is, after all, no time pressure whatsoever. I would also expect that he would be very circumspect in revealing information to the media. There is no benefit to be had by telling them anything.

But, we do know what's important to him. By going through his list we can check off which teams meet his criteria. Buffalo is the team that checks those boxes more than any other.

Other than a possible emotional pull (a strong one & often a siren song to players) of his hometown team, the Sabres have a commanding advantage on every other team. I give Boston reasonable odds on this basis. I also think the Sabres odds decline as we move from July 15 (or so) to Aug. 15.

I also know a bit about how the Sabres FO operates under TM. They are very deliberate, i.e., they do their homework. They're also very decisive, i.e., they do not dick around but act when they've decided on a direction they want to take. I do not think they'd spend a third if they did not have prior knowledge that they would have a very good (but not guaranteed) chance at signing him.

I do not know if there's any real substance to the latest rumor that Buffalo is going to acquire Nash from the NYR (for Franson & Ennis). I do not know how such a move might influence Vesey's decision (my thinking is it removes a top six spot). In the end, I expect the Sabres to express to Vesey (not in literal words but in effect): "we invested a lot in order to have the exclusive privilege of negotiating with you, but you do not have 100% of the leverage. Shit or get off the pot." In other words, I think they may tell him to sign sooner so they can make other decisions (such as getting Nash or not), or they're pulling out.

It's made for a more interesting than usual offseason.

 

Forcing his hand when he wants to have a chance to talk to other teams is something I can't see them doing.

 

In business negotiations this is not "forcing his hand". It is establishing the time table for resolution. It is important to bear in mind that delays put the Sabres at risk; they have decisions to be made during this offseason and they cannot afford to have this dragged out and potentially lose on other opportunities.

It may sound like a hard-ass approach to you, but it won't (or should not) appear as anything other than standard negotiating procedure to Vesey's agent.

If Vesey is not persuaded that Buffalo gives him the best opportunity to succeed in the short term and the long term then that is not likely to change after Aug. 15th. Buffalo is better off moving on if Vesey does not make a decision soon; and they should let his team know that.

 

He's always stated from his time in nashville that his intentions were to go to aug.15 (because he wants to see what's out there from a few teams). The sabres traded a 3rd for the oppurtunity to be the first team to talk to him,the ball is all in his court. If the sabres want to play hardball it would be against their best interest in what they view as a big prize. Not respecting his wishes is an approach they could choose but highly doubt it.
I think his mind has been made up about aug.15 and won't change, if the sabres want to give him an ultimatem, I don't think it would be wise in this case.

 

skinny, your response makes it appear as though you did not read mine, since you did not address or even acknowledge any of it. You seem hell bent on calling this approach hard ball. I disagree; I think it's standard operating procedure when it comes to negotiations.

Vesey does not hold all the cards here, and the Sabres can play theirs in a fashion that they feel is in their best interest. That's what I expect they'll do. If this means that they walk away then I won't be surprised or upset.

I'll maintain that the most likely outcome is that Vesey signs with the Sabres this month.

The Sabres have nothing to gain - and potentially a lot to lose - by allowing this to drag out for five weeks. There is also not a whole lot for Vesey to gain. That is, unless he decides he does not want to go to BUF. If that's the case then Buffalo loses nothing by walking away sooner.

 

Dan, I understand the sabres have other decisions, but so do the bruins and leafs. Playing that card won't work here as vesey's cap space doesn't play a signifigant role going forward. This is not a standard negotiation here, sabres decided to get into the ring knowing full well his plans to take it to the15th ofAug. If you really believe the sabres have nothing to gain with vesey then I don't see what all the fuss is about.

 

If it goes to the 15th, that doesn't mean he still won't go to the sabres.

 

Yeah, but while some wondered if the Sabres were profligate and/or reckless in investing a third on him, I think that was merely part of the calculation. Spend a 3rd (a 20% chance of becoming an NHLer) that has 1 in 5 odds of eventually paying off in order to obtain exclusive rights to someone that is virtually sure of playing right away. But what they were really investing in is the chance to get to a quicker yes.

I have swung to the opinion that if that yes is not forthcoming then I want the team to move on. Sure, it is technically correct to say that he could sign after 8/15. But the offer is not going to change. Vesey is selecting a city to play for and not a two year contract. If he likes what he sees in Buffalo then it's not going to look better in 5 weeks. Therefore if he says no now there is no strong reason to think he'd say yes later.

Shit or get off the pot, Jimmy. Nothing personal is going on with either side; it's just business.

If Vesey isn't sold on Buffalo in July then I want the team to get on with the business of building the team.

 

I don't think he's saying no, just putting them on hold to listen to the other options and keeping an open mind. Trading the 3rd when you had four isn't a bad decision, zack rinaldo was traded for a 3rd.

 

We're talking about this a lot and it's close to becoming circular. These are my opinions on the Vesey drama:
- I want him to sign with Buffalo. He's good and he's cost-contained.
- I think Vesey will have absolutely every bit of information he needs by the middle of this month to decide if he wants to come to Buffalo.
- He does not need to speak with other teams to obtain information that will help make his decision.
- His decision has nothing to do with what the terms of his first contract will be; it is all about the city and the organization. That information is readily available to a man with his resources.
- Buffalo has valid reasons for wanting an earlier decision; this is not impetuous and the team is not playing hard ball if they express this to him.
- If he is not ready to say yes, (I say by about July 15th), then I do not believe he will ever say yes to Buffalo.
- I do not begrudge him if he prefers another team. The fact that I am a fan of the Buffalo Sabres should not enter his thinking.
- I will not bemoan Buffalo "wasting" a draft pick if he is not signed. I think it was a deliberate decision based on risk: reward analysis. Even if he says no to Buffalo, I am happy that they took this course. I think that all along their plan was to get a quick resolution, or cut bait.
- Every other team that potentially could sign him is dithering around the uncertainty of where he'd go; the Sabres are the only team that put themselves in a position to do something about.
- I believe that the most likely outcome is that Vesey signs with the Sabres by around mid-July. If this goes to mid-August then I think it's highly unlikely that he goes to Buffalo.

If the Sabres continue to press to get much better as they've been doing now for 15+ months I will be extremely pleased. That is all I care about; that Sabres become very good. I'd like Vesey to be a part of that, but do not really care in the end. I would care if the team failed to make a move simply because they we uncertain of what Vesey would do.

If I were TM I would give Vesey a deadline for around July 15.

 

I agree with most of your points except "he does not need to speak to other teams" Totally disagree, he's made a list for reason's I've stated before, his family, his hometown and his good friend jack. The other teams will make their pitch like the sabres, the fact they spent a pick should not factor into his decision.

 

Why does he need to speak to other teams?