Prospects, and the future of the NHL

I'm starting here, a little out of order, because we're probably talking about 2 different ranges.
My cutoff is 90pts for teams definitely out of the playoffs (and then 2 or 3 teams prove me wrong every year)
I put Buffalo below 90pts, right now. To me anyway, that's outside of the bubble.
Using your range that extends below 90, I agree with just about everything you say about where you expect them.

I agree with not using last year's stats because they were an extreme.
That said, when plugging in Kane, ROR, and roster continuity ("mesh"), there results match up pretty well with predictive models. It's the reason the stat world was calling 13' Toronto, 14' COL, or 15' CGY a fluke...and they were all right on the money. It's the same reason the stats bumped LA in the offseason and why nobody wrote off Detroit. There are plenty of exceptions.

One of the reasons I reference continuity is because it is part of the prediction. A stat like Fenwick close looks better for a team with the same roster that adds a piece or two. In Buffalo's case they're going to have many of the same players in the same spots, their PDO wasn't strange, and they have a coach with a long track record. Overall Fenwick 5 on 5 close is a very good predictor of team success. It's been very good at slotting the standings (takes some tricky math to account for roster changes) and predicting playoff series wins for quite a few years now, even though almost every team outside of Colorado considers those stats.

I see Buffalo getting better in that regard, but not so much that they're able to bypass many of the teams in front of them. They're just too low still and the league hasn't tried making any significant adjustments to them yet. I like where they're headed, but I think it's going to take another painful but more interesting year.

 

Bob, I was starting to think I'd carried things too far and was coming across as a yahoo fan supporting my team without regard to reality. Thank you for a thoughtful response.

I'm going to mull your words over before responding.

I do want to emphasize that my original comment was that "talk" (of the Sabres in the playoff discussion) is not outlandish for '16-17. I view 86 points as an absolute worst-case for next season. And, that without an significant roster changes, it could be as high as 95. That puts them in bubble range. The speculation is based on the high probability that TM makes a significant move or two.

I expect that by September that Buffalo will be in that conversation, and some pundits will label them their darling team. If any one of them even hints at a link between the Sabres and the SC... shun that writer for life.

 

here's my thoughts on the Sabres, their numbers should mean more when looking at games that actually meant something. these late season nothing to lose games don't carry as much weight.

 

I think the relatively better performance by BUF since mid-January was predictable, (I did call for that). The constant line & pair changes were a necessary evil early on, but that was no way to establish consistency. It has settled down, and I think their play since then more accurately reflects who this team really is. The Sabres have some excellent pieces, and quite a number that fill their roles well.

There are several huge needs*, but the team has the framework of a contender already in the org. That's a far cry from where they were a year ago. Simply based on maturity and continuity I expect the team will fare better next year; enough to get them at least close to the playoff bubble. TM is self-professed impatient; that does not make him impetuous, but he will make some big moves. Depending on how well he pulls that off, the team could be a low seed playoff team.

(* More scoring from the top six wings, team speed in general needs a higher gear, and top four LHD.)

 

There are two teams to every match and very frequently the game carries a lot of weight to the other team. I'm just happy the team is playing to win every outing - that was, uhmm, not the case last year.

 

Blue Jackets sign 2015 first round pick Zach Werenski

The Columbus Blue Jackets have signed Zach Werenski to an entry-level deal, the team announced Tuesday.

The Blue Jackets selected the defenceman with the eighth overall pick in the 2015 draft.

The three-year deal will begin with the 2016-17 season.

Werenski, 18, is expected to make his AHL debut Friday with Columbus? AHL affiliate Lake Erie Monsters, with whom he signed a tryout contract earlier Tuesday. The team expects him to stick with the club for the remainder of the season and the playoffs.

This season's Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year just completed his sophomore campaign with the University of Michigan, totalling 11 goals and 25 assists in 36 games with the Wolverines to lead all Big Ten defencemen in scoring this year.
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He sounds like a good one.

 

Zach is a real good prospect; he is almost certain to be a top-four NHL blueliner.

I saw him in in Helsinki; chatted with him briefly in the hotel too. He's a good guy. CBJ got two players I really wanted for BUF in that draft, Werenski and Bittner.

 

Look at the goalies they're beating and facing, seems quite a few default number 1s and number2s, more than most teams.

I'm willing to guess a closer examination of gamelogs (which I haven't done) and minutes will reveal that teams aren't dressing their best lineups against them, inflating the numbers.

 

I agree about Lennie. In most sports, the promise of youth often trumps the ceiling of vets when it comes to projections...unti the puck drops.

I've only been projecting what I see now, I think it's very reasonable to see them in a better position in September even though it hasn't happened yet.

If they spend on Eriksson (something along those lines), maybe bring Campbell back, and then land another solid vet, I will definitely put them in the 90+ point range. When I project the team today, they're not close to a postseason appearance in my opinion. They need at least 2 more additions to their top 10 skaters, maybe 3.

 

I love this Vesey thing.

I've been assuming Toronto had Vesey, but the more I look at it the more I'm not so sure.
I can't find a contract for Jim SR. His Brother, drafted in the 6th by Toronto, is not an NHL prospect right now. Given Toronto's dash to accumulate young players, they're unlikely to have contract slots to throw away. Toronto is still going to be a dumpster fire for another year or more.

Jim SR has no scouting experience prior to the Leafs hiring him. I wonder if they're just "wooing" Jimmy to let him know Dad and bro have a job if he signs with them or if it was just a move to get his attention.

Tough for me to see him as a LW in Boston even though that's been mentioned as a top landing spot. Beleskey, Marchand, DeBrusk, Rinaldo *HELP* , Vatrano, etc. all filling up LW spots, assuming Eriksson is left to walk.

Maybe Jimmy won't be going to Toronto or Boston.

Chicago will have a spot open next to Toews. Starman (NCAA Lennie guy) mentioned Chicago as his top choice as of a few weeks ago. Not sure what to make of it. Mckenzie and Pierre said he was going to Nashville.

Where does he go?
If Chicago clears the deck of LWs...oh wait, they already did that minus Panarin, it would mean they're in play.

There are about 15 franchises that look like a good landing spot for him. Should be a funny storyline by the time this plays all the way out.

 

MOAR on Vesey.

 

Translation

Exec goes to player

"you're in a good spot right now. Tell us what you're going to do, RIGHT NOW, so that we can make your good situation different or worse if you tell us an answer we don't want to hear" "We're asking for an answer from you to make things better for US and then we're going to hold you to that answer"

If Fenton really went to Vesey demanding/requesting his intentions on the spot, what advantage, as a professional, would Vesey have been giving any other answer?

If he says he's "on the fence" or "no" he might get traded to Toronto or TB or EDM or DAL and have to deal with all this noise for another 6 months as multiple gms may work against him to undermine his value as a UFA. Seems like the B-team doing the sales.

Fuck Nashville if they're demanding an answer at the trade deadline. Fuck Nashville again if they're planning their playoffs around the word of a 22 yr old with nothing to gain by saying something different.

As I said on the butthurt thread, Vesey deserves to get slammed for saying he would sign with Nashville, as he did last spring. Outside of that I think he did what he had to do to look out for his best interests. I don't recall him making clear declarations of commitment to anything during the season unlike some of the holdouts.

 

Bob and Matty, you have made your case for the Sabres not being ready for the playoffs next season. (At least not with how the roster is now.) I found the discussion very interesting, and agree with most. If the team doesn't improve its roster aggressively, it is hard to expect them to actually make the playoffs next year.
I think the conversation has run its course. That is until I feel like taking it up again. That could happen at any time.

I do like the recent ELC additions; that's what got this started. Drake from N. Dakota could be next.

 

its a totally different mindset for the individual and the team when they're out of it and essentially just playing out the string. much looser atmosphere when there's less to lose.
i think that is even more important than the opposition's mindset, which is also altered when they don't care if you make up points on them. dead season points are essential like Phil Kessel points to me.

 

yes i agree w/ that. not trashing the Sabres but they're missing some valuable pieces and the vets they have aren't getting it done, for the most part. of course Pegula bucks will help here and the draft assets they can peddle too. Im not saying they won't be in the playoffs but if they don't improve i don't see it for next year. just my usually incorrect opinion.


the Jimmy Vesey thing is awesome. Poile trying to turn it on him looks so bad on the Preds.
i work w/ a 24 year old guy that played NCAA hockey and played w/ Jimmy Vesey when they were Jrs/Srs in H.S. I guess Vesey was good but not great and he improved dramatically at 18 years old. not sure why but i thought he was always a star, guess not.


I read a comment about his brother Nolan, he's not very good. looked much better 2 seasons ago as a freshman than he did this year potting a wondrous 11 points in 36 games. maybe he's getting himself ready to be a goon at the next level. look for the completely unnecessary post-game spear on Demko here.

 

Well hell, during the 2014-15 season the Sabres finished with 54 points, dead last. This season they already have 72. So, if you continue at this pace and can add an FA or two, I can see this team being very competitive and making a run for the 8th spot late in the season, especially when you look at the instability of the teams ahead of them... maybe eh?

*this has been a 'glass half full' analysis.

 

that NDakota kid would be a nice score.

Campbell and Eriksson seem perfect. I wonder how that would work though? You could pay up on Campbell short term but Id think Eriksson would want term, not saying Buffalo couldn't handle it but they'll have to be careful moving forward when the young guns end their ELCs.

 

What gives me confidence with Drake Cagguila is that he spent training camp with the Sabres. He's had the chance to get that Buffalo lovin', which has proven very alluring to hockey players. He is also from near Buffalo in S. Ont.

It also seems as though Buffalo is in much better shape to attract any FA. Jack, Samson, and ROR help.

You know I really like Loui. But, I'd be surprised if they'd commit to the term that will probably be required. I think he'll get seven years, and the team has too many players coming off ELC's between now and then.

Daniel Campbell is one of my favorite players ever. I like D, and I like guys that take the hard road to greatness. Also, 51 is my number. I think Florida wants to retain him, and who would not like wintering in Miami? Still, his return would turn the page on the dark era.

Still, we know TM is going to be aggressive this summer. I expect that he will please the faithful with his results. With cap space, picks galore, and at-or-close to NHL-ready youngsters at his disposal TM is in good shape.

We're at 48 contracts, so that leaves 2 spots before purging some RFA's soon. That's tight but manageable.

 

Campbell feeding Kane for the SCWG was as close to glory that Buffalo has ever experienced. Just saying. We're ready for some glory in blue & gold.

 

the nucks suck, plain and simple. I've not liked any transaction in the past year other than signing the big tree (tryamkin). I've been trying to decide on which finn I would take if the nucks got the #2 pick. Leaning Laine's way, big with a powerful shot. Puljujarvi has excellent skill. last year the nucks had 102 points. this year, wtf 70 or so. good job coach.