Prospects, and the future of the NHL

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2016/3/24/11299662/the-whl-confirms-ivan-provorov-is-the-best

wow-what a season from the ruskie!

 

go take care of yourself

 

what the fuck does that mean?

 

Well, the Sabres are busy. They've signed Eric Cornel, F, some WHL team (I think he was traded to Everett this year). He was a 2nd round pick a couple of years ago.

The Sabres recently signed coveted UDFA Casey Nelson, RHD, Minnesota State, and highly regarded Hudson Fasching, F, U. Minnesota. Nelson, Cornel, and probably Fasching will be in Rochester next year. Unless - and this is a real possibility - one or more of them is traded this summer. TM has restocked his prospect pipeline to go along with a gaudy number of picks in June.

I think Hudson could be an outstanding power forward in due time; hope he stays. But the team has reached the stage where some obviously good young talent has to be moved.

I think that it's very reasonable to start talking about Buffalo as a playoff team next season.

 

Let's wait until the lotto is done. The offseasons haven't even started. They're still behind MTL!

 

Big difference between start talking about this now and stating it in October. It is obviously speculative, but at this point it is speculative to speak about any team now.

What my comment is really saying is that I agree with the direction that management is taking the team. After making about a 50% YoY improvement the gap between this team and a playoff caliber team is not as great as casual observers believe. This does not mean they will be a playoff team. Moves must be made, and a bit over a year it is understated to say that TM has demonstrated his capacity for that.

He is reloading on his ability to swing another quantity for quality trade. Jack Eichel is good, but he is not close to his ceiling. DB has spent almost the entire season assessing and testing his roster. That will not need to be the case next year.

There is no good reason to wait speculating on next season when the team is clearly trending up. This season's ~32-36 point jump actually underrepresents the actual improvement in this team. They're going to be 10-15 points better next year strictly based on maturation and continuity. If they add one major piece then they'll be even better. At this point, the team is on the playoff bubble.

If they get lucky in the draft lottery then that would merely be icing. They're past the stage when they just must get that draft pick like they did the past couple years.

It is not too early to begin this conversation.

 

with the larger equipment, the 5 foot 6 inch goalers like roagie vachon are done. bigger dude and bigger pads make the game easier on the net. still waiting for a 400 lb athletic Japanese sumo/skater to ruin the game.

 

did i mention that canucks suck cutter's ballsack.

 

sorry Dan, id be surprised if Hudson Fasching is in the NHL next year and also if the Sabres are a playoff team.

 

I said the same thing about Hudson when I said he'd probably be in ROC. I want to be careful when I draw comparisons between him and your boy Danton Heinen because they play different styles. But they were both 4th rounders that would both go much higher in a draft do-over. Hudson is more physical, plus the obvious advantage of being one year older. He could be the player that makes Marcus Foligno expendable. Both are legitimate NHL prospects, so it's really a matter of how much each will require/benefit from time in the AHL. In the long term I think I'd rather have Heinen, (but don't tell BUF fans I said that). Hudson is - because of his size - better equipped to withstand the NHL game sooner. But, TM is not rushing any prospects.

As for the playoffs, I'll remind you that I said my comment is inherently speculative. But I stand by my comment that the conversation can begin. In fact, I believe the statement: "Buffalo will not be in the playoffs next year", is actually more absurd than "The Sabres will be in the playoffs".

First justification: my message is really centered on the replenishment of prospects signed to the org. TM swung three major trades involving (primarily) prospects and picks to dramatically upgrade the roster with young but proven NHL players. I believe that the restocking of the cupboards portends another similar move. The team has major holes, but the reality is that there are not that many anymore. I count three holes and TM filled three last year; it is possible for all three to be filled this summer. (But that is both optimistic and speculative.) I do expect TM will fill at least one of them, and it is quite possible that one of them is filled organically, (i.e., that player is already in the org.).

Few playoff teams have no holes; they just have fewer holes than others. Boston is an excellent case in point. Teams with the fewest holes are put in the SC contender conversation and you'll notice that I've been mute on that regarding the Sabres.

I'm leaving the draft out of this justification since, while I'm speculating, I'm restraining myself to matters that the team can control. No one controls the ping pong balls. But obviously there is a reasonable chance of a top-three pick. Real luck brings #2, and extreme luck #1. A top two changes the equation, and alters TM's strategy. Fortunately he'll know this well before he swings into action in late June.

Second justification: The Sabres have gone in one year from 54 points to the 76-80 point level. (16 points are on the table and the team is well over a .500 pace since mid-Jan. to pad their current 70). The team will build on that next year even if none of the major holes were filled. The team is exceptionally talented in many spots, they've had essentially a half-year training camp to determine how to best place those pieces together. Saying they'll be 10-15 points better with the current roster is not speculation; it's reasonable conjecture. That places them at 86-95 points next year. It is, therefore, absurd for anyone to aver that the team cannot make the playoffs next year.

I think it is exceptionally unlikely that TM does not find a way to fill at least one hole. He has his track record. He has 11 picks in June, and not all of them will be used to select future talent. He has a lot of good to great talent in the prospect pipeline.

I write this with the full knowledge that I am conversing with the two most highly esteemed hockey minds on L4S. But I stand by my assertion that it is reasonable to state that we can legitimately begin the conversation - the notion - that the Buffalo Sabres could reach the playoffs in 2017.

 

Buffalo's fenwick for % 5 on 5 close: 27th in the league in 16'
Buffalo's fenwick for % 5 on 5 close: 30th in 15'

Most of the jump up can be attributed to ROR and Eichel combined with a league that has so many disastrous seasons this year (more bad teams than normal). Their 15 numbers were so atrocious that it's easy to see a huge jump in most of the shot data. The problem is projecting that same jump in %, it's not realistic. Their PDO ("luck") is pretty close for all situations but a bump up there may cut 10 goals out of the goal differential or so.

If they can land a big FA like Yandle/Eriksson or a combination of Staal, Ladd, Backes, and/or Campbell or something, I think they can slide into the 7-10 range in the standings. Right now, just projecting this roster forward, I don't think they'll be able jump enough teams. The Metro is going to have 5 teams fighting for the postseason one way or another next year. While Detroit, Boston, and TB are in a spot (today) to slide backwards, it's tough to assume Buffalo would be able to jump more than one of them in the standings. OTT and MTL can't really get worse with the talent and experience on the roster. Florida will be a wildcard (multiple meanings) because of the massive veteran turnover and infusion of more good young players.

Anyway, until the offseason plays out, I have a real tough time seeing how Buffalo gets to the 10th spot in the EC. I put that roster at 12th or 13th in the conference with only Toronto and NJ below them, today.

I do think Buf will add, and I think the franchises in Carolina, CLB, and OTT can slide below them with ease but they will still have to jump 2 or 3 teams that I think are built better for 16'.

I think 17' will be when they're able to make their move.

Lots can change how I see teams now and what I'll see in October.

 

We'll find out how well TM executes his plan and how well DB & the players perform by about the deadline in February. Most playoff teams are determined by that point.

I want to make it very clear that I draw a big distinction between being in the playoff conversation and being in the playoffs. About 24 teams belong in the former and 16 are in the later.

As for statistics, I do not believe their purpose is to gauge success. Success is predicated first on personal that develop a sound plan, and then see to it that the right personnel are in the right places to execute the plan. Some GM's and many fans bypass the planning stage. Stats are helpful to quantify progress, but I do not use last year's market to project this year's results. There are many factors that go into measurements such as Corsi. Player skill is an important element, but in a team game, how the players mesh with others' talent is probably more important.

As I have often said, being a fan of any team is by definition biased. I am a Sabres fan and very biased. But I believe that I have justified my case for the Sabres - as a minimum - being considered a bubble team next year. I also will ask that you consider my comments prior to this season. They're on track to finish right where I expected them to be (I called for ~22nd overall).

I do not think a 10 point improvement next year is optimistic; that's more of a worst-case. If they finish with 86 they will be in the '17 lottery. There is not that much work - it's no longer a daunting task - to get them up to 96 points. That would be a low seed in the postseason. That's what I'm now projecting: 86-96 points. That range will narrow as we get closer to the new season.

 

I will refine my comments about the use of statistics a little: Statistics are lagging indicators, and as such are not the best measurement for leading events.

Of course, what has happened in the past can provide a base for our future expectations, but they do not tell the future story. For instance, leaping teams in the standings matter a lot as we head down the playoff stretch, or when we project draft positions. However, every team starts the new season at 0-0-0.

 

kinda sucks for nashville and them spending a 3rd rounder on a guy and get nothing for it.

 

think Vesey is making a mistake here. Nashville and Laviolette seems like a good fit moving forward.

 

i think they get some kind of compensation, probably something like a 4th. Chicago got something for Kevin Hayes anyway.

 

I think you get exactly one round later as comp., and I think it's untradeable. Chicago took Hayes at #24 and got #54 when he signed with the Rags.

 

Looks like Vesey is gonna be with his daddy, leafs are shrewd.

 

Legend meets future...