Great job Patg, very detailed, impressed with your knowledge of these players. I watch a lot of college football but never know much about the lower name guys like you do. I can give input on some of the Texas teams, Arizona Wildcats and SEC teams because I follow Georgia, but the rest I only know bits and pieces. Only thing I can think with him is to try him out at nickel. I know he played that in college but I agree with you 100%, his play at Safety this season has been god awful. Nickel is the only spot I can see that you can possibly salvage him.
No problem, and thanks for that. How about Ray Drew, huh? Weren't we talking about him being a 1st rounder last year right before the draft, before he stayed behind for his senior year? Both WFB and CBS have him as a 5-7 rounder now. The big names from Texas on a lot of boards are Quandre Diggs, the CB and Ced Reed the DE. Don't know too much about them. Haven't seen a lot. Diggs turns me off because of his height. Reed's production is way down from 2013......but like Sam Acho could surprise many like he did in Arizona. I do want to see if Malcolm Brown, the DT declares. I've heard late 1st/early 2nd round projections. He's big and beefy (listed at 6'4 327). Is that a 3-4 NT?
what are your thoughts on the RBs, Patg? it looks like a top-heavy RB draft, and Forte's contract is up after next year. Even with the ACL, Todd Gurley may be the top rated player available when the Bears pick.
Gurley and Melvin Gordon are your premier type backs. Franchise, once in a generation backs? No. No Adrian Petersons here. What distinguishes Gordon to me among previous highly touted Wisconsin backs is that he's quicker (Ball, Clay, and White all were beefier/power guys), and he catches out of the backfield. He's the complete package and is no small kid either. 6'2, 210. Gurley looks like the real deal, heavier than Gordon at 230 at the same height. I think this year we may see one or both of these guys go in the 1st. Miami Dolphins, 49ers, Indy, and Cards ALL have backfield needs. I think if you go Gurley or Gordon at 7, you HAVE to commit to having an absolute overhaul at the C position. Garza blows at run blocking. You stockpile picks in the 2nd and 3rd and Reese Dismiukes from Auburn is a hell of an option. Guy does nothing but run mauls and is a plus pass protector. The other OC is Grasu from Oregon and he's plus at both. Fortify the RT, replace Mills with a run blocker and the right side can hold the 2 headed giant of a Forte and Gurley or Gordon. I think itd be careless in a sense because the defense just needs too much help. SS, 2-3 LB, a CB, and DE depth.......I would hope the new GM coming in can pawn off a few players for picks and stockpile them without trading down. He will have some options. After these two, there are some decent 3-5 rounders. TJ Yeldon from Alabama is no slouch, and Alabama has produced some decent RBs in previous drafts sans Trent Richardson--who clearly is so talented but has a dogshit attitude about the game. Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, Jeremy Langford and Jay Ajiye all have come out.....all workhorse backs with size (over 6 feet tall, 200+ lbs) so they will be on the side of being a 20+ carry per game back instead of 10 like a Sproles or a Kareem Carey. I think if you can get a 2nd or 2 3rds (2016) for Marshall, you can get a RB round 2 and a OC round 2 or 3 after a LB or DE round 1. If you draft a RB early, you GOTTA fix the line. Cant expect once in a generation talent production because the game has changed so much, they dont come out like that anymore. 1st and goal from the 1 you gotta punch it in between the guards. Garza is the weak chip in all of it. I'd also be pretty good with finding a big, talented fullback if we are to remodel the interior run game. Remember Clutts from a year or two ago? Dallas is using him right. They have a decent OL that can run block for Murray, and he doesn't have to take on 2-3 guys or hit a brick wall because Garza gets pushed back 3 feet. Get back to basics. You have to put these guys in a position to succeed. You can't think they suck balls when they cant do their job because guys around them flat out let them down. 11 guys on all sides of the ball. If its the C, RG, and FB job to block for the HB, and the C gets pushed back, you're screwed.
Good news for those who hold RT as a necessity, top heavy, talented OT class. 3 Juniors who are all 1-3 rounders declared today. Ereck Flowers from the U (1st rounder), Donovan Smith from Penn State (2-3 rounder) and Jeremiah Poutasi from Utah. On top of Andrus Peat, Brendan Schremph, La'el Collins, TJ Clemmings, Ronnie Staley, Ty Symbrallio, Jake Fisher, Spencer Drago, and Cedrick Ogbuehi the top 3 rounds for OT is looking very, VERY solid.
There are definitely some talented RB's out there, but as Pat said, no Adrian Peterson's. You might be able to go back to that class two drafts ago with guys like Lacy, Bernard, etc. and see some comparisons. Being a big Miami guy, I hope Duke Johnson gets his due credit. For the sake of his career, he might be better served hitting the NFL now, but the university would love to have him back, and he's a big team-first guy, so we'll see. I think you have to roll with Forte and Carey into next year. If you want to add a mid-rounder or a free agent, go for it, but giving up on Carey that quickly with so many other holes seems ill-advised. If Forte's time as a Bear is over after next year, draft a RB high and let him run as a rookie. No need to add another one now. I think Miami will go OL before they go RB - while it is one of their top needs, another UM kid, Lamar Miller, stepped up this year. I don't think he's the solution, but he's enough of one for them to go elsewhere first. OL is AWFUL. I haven't kept track of the 49'ers backfield, but I thought they were in a pretty good situation? Indy and Arizona will absolutely be among those speculated to be first in line, and rightly so. I think you have to decide what the plan is at QB, first. If you want Cutler gone and you think you can nab a good rookie with an early pick, do it. Otherwise, defense should be the top priority, no question. Honestly, with how much a new staff can change the personnel on this team, needs could change quickly. I just don't think you can solve the defense without some serious attention in the draft. That side needs WORK. Pat, I'd be interested to see which guys you had your eyes on are declaring for the draft (those that are underclassmen). Let us know if a big name jumps into the pool, at all.
Gore has shown signs of age, 32 at the beginning of next season. Marcus Lattimore showed promise but retired because of the knee. After a fantastic game against the bears, Carlos Hyde returned to mediocrity. Alfonso Smith is.......nothing. Brandon Albert got big money. Samsen Satele is solid, as is Pouncey. Dallas Thomas, like Mills can use an upgrade but is it a primary need in Miami? You'd probably know better. Lamar Miller did finish strong. Sitting at late teens for a pick, 'Best pick available' could be a RB. In terms of what at underclassmen? With the #7 pick, I have a realistic big board right now that contains (in half drunk order) Randy Gregory, Shaq Thompson, Gurley, Gordon, Tres Waynes, Ronnie Stanley. I fully expect Andrus Peat, Leonard Williams, Amari Cooper, Jameis and Mariota, and Shane Ray to be taken before the Bears pick. A few posts ago I mentioned a couple underclassmen declaring early........Durel Eskridge and Lorenzo Doss as 3rd and 6th round targets........Next season should be 1st and 3rd rounders. Marcus Peters as possibly a 2nd or 3rd round CB--but is a 1st round talent that got kicked off his team. LB or DE has to be addressed this year or the next early. The bears cannot walk into 2015 with Bostic, Jones, or Shame. They need a FA (one of the 2 LBs from Seattle) and a top 2 round draft pick.......Right now I value LB more because Allen, Young, Houston, Bass, and a couple depth guys are not likely to go anywhere, whereas our LBs this past year were retarded and need immediate fixing while DE--you CAN put off (though undesirably so) for another year before spending a high pick on one. In terms of QB, I'd love the bears to pick up a 2nd 2nd rounder and take Garret Grayson as a back up.......or somehow acquire Bryan Hoyer if Jay is gone.
There are going to be a lot of big name underclassmen. The mini big board I provided above, all except Peat are Juniors or less. We are in Randy Gregory territory. One of the two best pass rushers, and a 4-3 DE. Reminds me a bit of Ziggy Ansah in Detroit. Fantastic athletic specimen, but didn't pick up football till 2-3 years ago. He was a Junior College star that went to Nebraska and got better. Draws comparisons to Javon Kearse, who was dominant for Tennessee for a number of years. Some people think Gregory (255 lbs) can turn into Aldon Smith and be a 3-4 rush LB instead of a down linemen. Some people (Walterfootball) think his skillset is better for a 3-4, I don't. With QBs seemingly going 1 & 2, Oakland/Reggie McKenzie's enamor with Leonard Williams (projected 3 tech in a 4-3 or 5 tech in a 3-4), Jaguars and Redskins dire needs on the OL, and the Jets in need of a WR, Gregory has a fantastic chance to fall to the bears.
I don't know where he is projected now but he was not very good at all this season. Very little impactful plays, thought he would be a beast this season under Jeremy Pruitt but really wasn't, I would stay away from him. He was much better last season, not impressed this year at all. I like Diggs, he is a real competitor, outspoken and good leader, which God knows we were severely lacking this season. Would be a solid pick for depth at CB. His height is an issue but wouldn't be a bad pick in the middle rounds. Love Reed's size but you are right, didn't do much this season. That defense was on the field a lot due to a horrible Texas offense but I thought Strong would make him better but he didn't. Again, nothing more than a mid round possibility, Oakman from Baylor was an interesting prospect because of his freakish size and athleticism but he has said he is coming back to Baylor next season, which is probably a good move on his part because he was very raw this season A guy to take a look at for Georgia is David Andrews, Center. Been a 3 year starter and led a very strong offensive line this year. GREAT leader and competitor, not a highly touted prospect but again could be a mid round consideration, especially with us desperately needing a Center at this point to replace Garza. I love Todd Gurley, the ACL tear is going to cause him to drop. Dude was an impact player for Georgia and I loved watching him play. Don't know the effect of the ACL on his explosiveness but he has speed and power that is rare. I actually liked him more than Gordon prior to the injury. I don't like any of the RB's at 7 but the 2nd round is a definite possibility. I have a hard time thinking Lovie will take an offensive player when he has his choice of players in the draft. I know they need a QB, you know they need a QB but I just can't see Lovie passing up the chance to take ANY defensive player he wants. I could be wrong but we will see. Tampa's offensive line is a disaster as well. If they do go offense, the Bears could have their pick of the 1st or 2nd best defensive player, which is where they need to go.
Right now Drew is a projected 5th rounder. I have not taken that into account, the 'Lovie Factor.' Where defense comes first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh. But Jason Licht, their GM will be the deciding factor that gets them Mariota or Winston.....I fail to believe Lovie will have total control over his picks. I also cant see them walking into 2015 with Glennon and McCown at QB. Both have gotten killed, as you mentioned--by a shady OLine. I mentioned above, this year's OLine class, especially OT and OC class is top heavy. 3 starting caliber Centers that are 1-2 rounders. 12 starting caliber OT rounds 1-3. QB then dip into that OL class round 2.......I can see Licht doing it because he comes from a balanced background in player personnel/scouting in Miami, Philadelphia, and New England most recently. He's not Jerry Angelo......at least I don't think he is. If you spend 7 of the previous 12 years in scouting and player personnel for the New England Patriots, I have to believe you have some idea of drafting need and talent at the right spot, not just overloading one side and screwing the other.
They hired Lovie before Licht and I think Lovie has input on player and personnel issues, moreso than he did in Chicago. I'm just saying, he hasn't had that high of a pick while he is coach, that is going to be very interesting. Maybe Lovie can talk Licht into moving down and picking up a few extra picks and still his defensive player. There defense was not very good this year either, the Bucs were a complete disaster. I agree that they should probably go Mariota but the Lovie factor will be very interesting.
Again, I'll hold the guy to a smart standard because he spent 7 of his past years in New England. I can see them opting to trade out of the #1 pick too.
A couple bowl games happened last night, and a few players hurt their stock, and a few helped. I'll go over a couple the bears could be targeting. I watched the first half of the Stanford/Maryland game--and while I didn't put TOO much stock into it (it was a home game for Stanford, at 49ers/Levi's stadium) Stanford has a WR/TE Devin Cajuste I was impressed with. I don't think he's fast enough to be a WR at the NFL level, though he has size (6'4, 238 lbs) and he's moved into a late (6-7 round) pick with his performance last night. Could be a great tight end, certainly worth an upgrade over Dante Rosario. Catches in traffic, fought for extra yards (2 TDs as a result). Don't like how on the 2nd TD he left himself open to a wicked hit to the head. The NFL will not be as forgiving as a Maryland underclassmen. http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12101341 http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12101557 I tried not to get into the Kevin Hogan spankfest, but he was impressive. One of the jackass reporters called him Peyton Manning like. Great pocket presence, and he's got a great OL and a shitty Maryland DL to thank for that. Made some great, accurate throws. WFB has Hogan ranked as a 3-5 round QB. This probably helped. Accurate guy, and minus two ugly games (Arizona State and Notre Dame) never was uner 65% passing. A couple games, 7 of 13 Hogan was 70% passing or better. Same, WC Spread offense Luck ran when he was at Stanford. In the unlikely event the bears can afford to drop a pick on a QB round 2, he'd be ideal rounds 3-4. He can play and work out better than that. Perhaps another project guy. * * * Aggie, who the hell is Nick Chubb? Only thing Georgia/Louisville worth noting. Gerod Holiman, the Louisville Safety I REALLY wanted to see more from, but Georgia only threw the ball 15 times-so I got to see a FS with the best range out of all the FS targets not use what the bears desperately need. Lorenzo Mauldin, OLB from Louisville didn't hurt his stock, but he didn't help it letting this Chubb kid run all over him on 33 carries for 270 yards. Standing pat in collegiate rankings for the NFL draft and people will pass you. Terell Floyd stole the show for Louisville's D amid a shit performance. CB. Great in pass coverage. 3 deflected passes and an INT. Just played his way into the 3rd round. Can build upon it if he works out and interviews well. http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12100486 http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12100336 Devante Parker is another Louisville guy destined to go early, but the bears will not be targeting a WR. Nothing to note from ND/LSU--unless you're looking for a kicker. ND's game winner was 40-soemthing yards into the wind. * * * Duke/Arizona State showcased some offense, even though both schools are known more for defense. Duke 5'9 burner WR Jamesin Crowder lit up Arizona State, and Jaelon Strong lit up Duke. From WFB: The undersized Crowder produced a good regular season for the Blue Devils with 78 receptions for 942 yards with six touchdowns. For the NFL, Crowder is a speedy, slot receiver, but the senior may not have the size to stick at the next level. What the bears need. Projected 4-6 rounder. Can be your return man too. Arizona State's RB DJ Foster disappointed NFL Scouts by saying he will return for 2015. Arizona State's kicker was better. Hit a 50 yarder. But perhaps the name NFL Scouts and personnel were there most for was Dave Cutcliffe, Duke's HC, a candidate linked to several NFL vacancies. * * * The USC Nebraska game I was pretty turned off at. The two premeir pass rushers, Randy Gregory and Leonard Williams went head to head annnnnnnd.......there's a big chance the bears get neither. Leonard Williams' bull rush as a 3 technique is remarkable. Scouts have said he's Jadaveon Clowney strong, with Jadaveon Clowney's drive--IE takes plays off. He will need more than the bull rush as a 5 tech or a 3 tech to be successful.
A back to watch in the future. Dude was a beast this year. Honestly, when Gurley was out, this guy didn't miss a beat. He tore up Missouri and Arkansas as well. He is a true Freshman put up 1500 yards and didn't even get the majority of carries when Gurley played. He is fun to watch, small but powerful and tough to bring down. Will be a Heisman Candidate next season. Georgia always comes up lacking in the wins department to be a top tier team, but they ALWAYS have a stable of RB's. Even with losing Gurley this year, Chubb will be back, Sonny Michel is a quicker RB who can bounce it to the outside and Nick Marshall who is a solid RB in his own right but has been injury prone.
Appreciate the very thorough reply Patg (and Aggie & Dline), more than I expected. Probably not popular, but Forte? If it?s a 2 year climb to competitiveness, Forte isn?t a part of that plan, is he? Forte is a very good RB, but he?s not a bellcow who you can run your offense through (i.e. Marshawn Lynch, Jeremy Hill), but he?d have value and be a nice fit in either Indy or AZ, among others. Would also be nice to see one of the QBs fall to the Jets, so Cooper falls ? that would give the Bears some trade-down leverage. That?s exactly what I?m thinking, but you can usually draft RT?s in the 2nd (or a RG if Long moves to RT). Maybe a Mike Davis or Javorius Allen on day 2 is more realistic. And whether the QB next year is Cutler, Claussen, Sanchez, or Grayson, etc, the Bears need to take the ball out of the QB?s hands. That worked out pretty damn well in Dallas this year, took a ton of pressure off Romo and he had his best year with maybe 100-150 less attempts. Maybe, but also have to wonder how much of the poor defensive performance was just Tucker, not personnel. Last year Dallas defense was as bad or worse than the Bears, lost their 2 best players in Ware and Lee, only plus moves were putting Marinelli in at DC and their running game - that D moved up to middle of the pack (deep pain in my stomach using Cowboys as an example to emulate). Assuming Young and Houston recoveries, Bears D mostly needs 1-2 LBs - you mentioned the Seattle LBs - Mason Foster doesn?t fit Lovie?s C2, Nate Irving, Spikes, Maualuga, not pro bowlers but upgrades, nobody there breaks the bank - $30M in cap space ought to afford filling at least one of those holes. Sorry for derailing your thread - what they actually do depends on the new GM/HC philosophies, I guess I?m just spitballing how to work around Cutler and Marshall?s contracts.
Its an option but just how good of a draft pick will a team let up for him? Ideally, New England is your preferred target. They'd LOVE Matt Forte. Sadly, I cant see them giving up more than their late 3rd rounder, maybe a 2nd if the bears pull a bidding war off correctly. I think Marshall or Jeffery would fetch a pretty penny. I think you could get a 1st and a 3rd for Jeffery. While he's likeable and young, he isn't untouchable. I wouldn't look to trade Jeffery, but if someone made me an offer I couldn't refuse......you gotta consider the option to take it. There will be other players. 2-3 OT, 2 QB, 2 DE, and Cooper are all top 10 picks. Teams will look to trade up, even if Cooper isn't there......for an OT that falls. If Randy Gregory or Leonard Williams falls, you can't trade back. You pick one of them. My philosophy with trading down is 'let them come to you.' NEVER look to actively trade down. Its retarded. Play hard to get. I see mock experts on Chi-city sports and Chi-scout assuming teams will fork over top picks for the pick, and that it can be an easy done deal--Not even close. You can get an immediate playmaker at 7 or stockpile an extra picks by making someone a sucker. If you can't find someone at the 7th pick to come in and be an immediate impact player, you're doing your job wrong...... If someone can make Buffalo give up 2 1st rounders and a 3rd to move from 9 to 5 and pick Sammy Watkins, the new guy in charge, if he feels the need to trade down--should be able to find a similar sucker. Jay Cutler being the Qb damages this chance. If you get rid of him, by cut or trade--you're going to start fresh, albeit bad. You build the interior OL and you simplify. You dont need a gunslinger or a field general. Get a game manager who doesn't have to throw the ball 50 times a game. Dominate the run game, a reason I'd be for keeping Forte. A Forte and Gurley/Gordon/Ajiye/Coleman/Johnson/Langford combo with a run powering line can ease up on the defense. Dallas hasn't added anything overly-spectacular to their defense. Henry Melton is having a pretty good year coming off of injury, but the key to their success has been health and Tony Romo not making mistakes. 34 TDs, 9 INTs for Romo in 2014. Its not 28 TDs and 19 INTs from a year ago. Demarco Murray AND the unpopular drafting of early OLinemen Tyron Smith, Travis Fredrick, and Zack Martin in the past 3 drafts have made it so their offense and running game can dominate the game clock and keep their average at best defense off the field. That's what you have to do when you don't have an elite defense. Carry them with an effective offense by keeping them off the field and putting them in low pressure situations. Problem is, our offense that was supposed to do that hasn't. Yeesh. Back to the drawing board. Sadly, my guy Shaq Thompson, unless he works his way to be a top 10 candidate--is off the table. I think his attitude is exactly what this team needs. Malcolm Smith and KJ Wright from Seattle are likely not both being kept. Get a safety too. I'd rather not blow big money on Rahim Moore, but Jeron Johnson, another guy from Seattle should be targeted.
Right now, the only players I would not make available are offensive lineman or defensive lineman that fit the new scheme we are running. Everyone else is fair game in my opinion. Now in saying that, you have to get full value in a trade. This isn't a fire sale, rather using your assets to get more assets to improve the roster. On trading down, I'm with Patg. You don't do it unless you get over the value of the pick, which means only moving down a few picks and then picking up 2nd and 3rd rounders. The Bears have a ton of needs and if an immediate impact, can't miss player is available at 7, then pick him. If it is not or someone offers you a ton of value in return, then trade it. The Bears are in a good spot to trade down because sometimes teams have a guy they love that may drop unexpectedly, which puts the Bears in the drivers seat.
Great thread PG. Was a really good read. Have to say, I wasn't hoping to be thinking about the draft until Feb or March. I think the Bears have a lot of holes on D, but none were bigger 3 weeks ago than LB. Sadly, I think with Houstons ACL and Youngs Achilles blowing up, DE has to be high on the list as well. And let's not forget that we have a DT in his prime who is a free agent. Oh, and Tillman is probably gone. And can't forget the perpetual shitshow that we like to call our safeties... As a side note, I will be going to the draft - who else is planning on being there?
I'm far too hungover to go into detail.......but in case you missed it. Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, the top 2 QBs went against each other. Neither were spectacular. Mariota probably solidified his spot as #1. Famous Jameis played like shit and was a complete bitch after the gamethen to the interviews, and the handshakes.......very immature after shaking Mariota's hand/leaving the field. Mike Golic and Jurko went off on them. He said 'I'm just looking forward to baseball' to reporters. I get being salty after a major ass whooping, but if you're about to be a highly paid professional, you may want to look the part. Mariota, again wasn't spectacular. 26 for 36, 338 yards, 2 TDs and one INT. Famous Jameis had a funny looking wipe out/slip. Almost as funny as the butt fumble. TJ Yeldon looks like a nice 4th round pick from the Alabama game. Above average defenses, lacklusting offenses except Oregon. Running backs dominated the Bama/OSU game. Until Blake Sims started throwing the ball......then it got ugly. Threw it right to a defensive tackle, who returned it for a touchdown. Can't say enough about Oregon's offensive line. For a left coast team, they play angry and they play physical. Most of all, they're all excellent in pass and run blocking. 2 guys going in the first 2 rounds in Grasu and Fisher. Lots of needs. Lots of talent.
With the picks they have now, they have to go DL/OL round 1, DB round 2, LB or DL round 3. Lots of different combos to make with that.
