2nd tape of Peppers, against UCF, an underrated CFB school. Not in a power conference, but always plays them hard. [video]https://youtu.be/TDlNyM3aIhg[/video] Like the Penn State game, First 2 plays has Peppers at ILB and then Nickel/slot cover. Both played excellently. A botched snap, an easily cast-aside blocker, and Peppers has a sack on the 2nd play of the game. I like this match up better, because we get to see Peppers in coverage more, with UCF running a spread, WC style offense. QB under center with 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB sets. Not as many run stopping opportunities as we progress through the tape. He's lined up back off the line and to the left/right shadowing the slot. He doesn't run backwards on punts. When the defense does send him on the blitz, if he's picked up by a lineman, his instincts not to let a running quarterback out of the pocket is smart. Not too many of these QBs at the NFL level, but nonetheless something a good player does. He snuffs out read option from this quarterback. Definitely a plus. So my takeaways: What I like. He's got all the tools to be the next Cam Chancellor, Troy Polumalu, Eric Berry. The instincts, the knowledge, the vision, preparation, and athleticism. Plus in man coverage, plus in zone coverage, plus at the blitz. Last year I did a write up on Su'a Cravens, then USC SS now with the Redskins making plays who the bears passed on thrice (4-5 times because of 2nd round trade downs to get Whitehair). This kid is better. What I don't like: Not much, but I've seen several plays where he squares up the ball carrier, gets low, puts the shoulder to the hip, but his arms dont wrap up the legs. He cant assume his frame is going to do that against good TEs, or power running backs like Peterson, or Lacy depending on if he's fat again, at the NFL level.
Second 1st round prospect to get acquainted with, Malik McDowell, DT, 3 tech, and 5 tech from Michigan State. 6'6, 285 lbs. To the tape against Notre Dame. He's #4 in White. [video]https://youtu.be/ZfC1c8zwCVU[/video] He's switching from 3 tech to 1 tech a lot inside, and he's dominating Notre Dame's interior G-C-G combo off the bat. He's making quick work of the left guard especially. 20 seconds in and he's blown up a run play for -5 yards. After this play, the C/LG double him. Though as a 5 tech in a 3-4 defense, you want him to cause the offense to waste a TE with the LT/RT, whomever he lines up against. The possession after ND put up 7, Mark Dantonio dials up the perfect ILB blitz. McDowell takes the G/C out of the play, and Riley Bullough, ILB for MSU with a wide open lane. Deshone Kizer with no chance (2 minute mark). The 2:35 mark was excellent. McDowell lines up at RE, beats Mike McGlinchey, arguably the best LT in 2017's draft, who may stay at ND for his senior season. Chases down Kizer. 3rd and 13 turns into 4th and 12. ND takes some chances running on him. They double him, and run right at him. He uses that 6'6 frame and arms to get the running back. Bad gamble by Brian Kelly. From mid-2nd quarter until the end of the 3rd quarter, ND shells up offensively, going uber conservative until a bomb to Hunter Jr. again. McDowell with handfuls of plays where he blows up the off-guard runs. McDowell finished the game with not-so-sexy stats, 4 tackles, 2 TFL, and 2 assists. But his positioning, and that he constantly demanded 2 offensive linemen per play to take him out of the play is something Vic Fangio should be able to put to good use. What do I like so far? His bull rush is his best move. He splits ND's G/C double team with it a lot or shakes one to make him available to stop a run. He's a 2 way player, run stopping and pass rushing. He's not a 1 dimensional guy like Bullard, who may develop into an every down guy, whom the bears just drafted. This kid can play any package and he is with MSU. When he lines up at DE in MSU's 4-3 front, he wins hand/leverage battles against McGlinchey. He hits the quarterback, knowing where he is. And Kizer can move. Also, he has 3 good moves, swim, spin, and bull rush. Swim/spin are okay in this film. What I don't like so far: For a guy with a 6'6 frame, he looks like he stands up a lot, something they teach you not to do if you're a defensive down lineman. Also, every time he's lined up at DE, his first move is outside to beat the tackle. While it's successful, ND identifies it on a couple plays, and this do-it-all back, Tori Hunter JR (son of long time Minnesota Twins OF Tori Hunter) drops to the flat where there's wide open space, where had McDowell bull rushed, he takes that throwing lane away.
2nd tape of McDowell, conference game against Indiana. [video]https://youtu.be/lLi9wY9C8rM[/video] Indiana doesn't waste time like ND did, waiting for the 1st mistake. They double McDowell from the start. So far it seems futile, even being doubled, McDowell blows up 2 run plays early right at him. Like with the ND game, when he lines up at DE, his first move is to the outside where his hands are free. He's shown he's a good enough athlete to beat his guy and move inside. He's spending significantly more time at 3 tech this game whereas against ND he was predominantly 1-gap/1 tech, unsure if this is the match up coach Mark Dantonio wanted, but so far he's been doing much of the same. He's using bull rush and swim move early, and the swim is effective. RG Dan Feeney on Indiana is 6'2, a 4 inch height gap from McDowell. Wes Martin, the LG is 6'3, also giving up height as well. McDowell gets chipped by the TE lining up at LDE, and the TE (#84) diverts him away to cost him 2 sacks. He gets Feeney to hold him to not terrorize the backfield also on several downs, and I'm a little over 3 minutes into watching this. Indiana's quarterback is bad. #21. He forces several bad throws after feeling pressure. McDowell, when he's lined up at LDE, #21 doesn't even look to that side of the field. Indiana put up a great drive mid-late 2nd, and a stupid throw to the safety on MSU's 10 yard line ends Indiana's drive. Michigan State ends up losing in OT. MSU's defense gets gassed as the game progresses by Indiana's up-tempo offense, who also used a trick play, as their QB, #21 Lagow can also play RB and WR. He caught a trick pass for 49 yards and a score late. Indiana's RB, #34 also gets incorporated as they run away from McDowell with pulling guard play. Successful. MSU's OLB looks so lost when they run it right side. Another non-sexy stats game, 5 tackles, 1 TFL, but again, that he's shutting down 1/2 of the field because of his frame and Indiana only threw it 26 times, 21 to the opposite side of McDowell, oft to the left when he lines up as 3 tech or LDE. Consistent play too, like ND, commanded double teams and both Kizer and Lagow didn't throw much to his side of the field. Bull rush, swim, and spin on display, good nose for the ball, and misses sacks due to being held or an offensive penalty. I think he should have had 3 this game. McDowell started the year as a mid 1st round pick, he's now projected top 10, top 5 to some. Many scare away from Michigan State's bad record this year......
I don't agree with it, it should be more of a dynamic guideline than a static formula as they present it. I don't think the Bears do entirely, but the release of Gould was clearly in line with that line of thinking, but the extension of Long wasn't.
Jonathan Allen up next. 5 Tech from Alabama. 6'3, 275 lbs. #93 [video]https://youtu.be/N-R5L2Fn2ss[/video] I wanted to watch film against USC, who boasts a decent LT, Zac Banner (4-5 rounder, likely to go earlier) in a potentially weak OT draft. Like McDowell, his first move is outside, and then collapses in on the pocket/runner. He's active, early. He moves a lot, when he gets locked up by Banner, he shifts his hips and body left and right to watch the quarterback when he drops back. He's half a foot shorter than the 6'9, 340 lb Banner, and giving up over 60 lbs to the guy too. 6'3 isn't short, but USC has thrown to his side of the field, and while he's cognizant enough to go up to try and bat it down, the QB from USC just puts it in spots he cant jump high enough to get. Allen is really effective in the run game early, part of the reason Alabama blew out the Trojans starting outside and then collapsing in. The USC RB is ineffective every between-tackles run. A few plays Banner just manhandles him. Blows him off the line 5 yards. A few plays Allen makes him look silly, walking by him on his speed bull rush move to the outside, including one for a sack. The quarterback didn't have a chance to finish his first read before he got hit. His pass rush gets better as the 1st quarter ends, beating double teams for his 2nd sack of the game. What I like: Like McDowell, he's a solid 2 way pass/run defender. He can play any position on the line except NT, and his bull rush, hands, and angle/vision to the ball carrier/quarterback are exceptional. What I dislike: He dogs some plays. The play after he shreds a double block for his 2nd sack, he completely disengages in a single blocker from Banner, a guy who's been struggling all game to contain Allen. He just gets out of his stance, squares up with Banner, and Banner doesn't move. Neither does Allen. Another thing, the "is he a product of the defense or the defense a product of him?" argument. Alabama has blue chip, 5 star recruits every year by Nick Saban on that defense, he's not the only playmaker likely going to be drafted from that defense. Ryan Pace may seem to think its the former, because several times this past April, he passed on Jarran Reed and A'Shaun Robinson in the 2nd, both 5 techs from Bama in 2015. Pace traded out of the #41 pick with both on the board (to Buffalo, who took other Bama ILB Reggie Ragland), then again at #49 with Reed left on the board, who ended up going to Seattle. Pace had a shot at 2 similar players to Allen and decided neither was a guy he had to have. Then we got Cody Whitehair.
While I tend to agree more with statistics and analytics as they get bigger in sports, I don't disagree much with Whaley's plan, but I wouldn't make a CB a "must have guy to pay." Buffalo boasts a really nice secondary in recent memory, and reloads with ease. Stephan Gilmore, Leodis McKelvin, Jayrus Byrd, and Aaron Williams now and in recent years. I think LT, pass rusher, and QB are 3 must have positions. I think a LB should be a "must pay" position whether you're in a 3-4 or 4-3, as well as an offensive threat/playmaker (RB, TE or WR) as well as a second pass rusher or lineman who takes 2 sets of hands out every play. But I'd make an exception for Peppers or a once-in-a-generation player, presuming he lives up to it after rookie contract.
So I watched the full game for Mitch Trubisky today in the Sun Bowl. Thought this was a great matchup to watch because Stanford plays a pro-style system and usually has NFL players littered throughout its roster. I also watched his first game this season because he played the Georgia Bulldogs. Came away less than impressed in that game but it was the first game. Through the season I watched him in parts of games. This is what I have on him: - Great size, very strong arm, 6'3 225. Looks like the prototypical QB and from all reports, is a good kid with a good head on his shoulders, stays out of trouble. - Mobility is very good, throws good on the run, seems to have a good pocket presence. Reminds me a lot of watching Carson Wentz last season. I liked Wentz but didn't think he was worth a first round pick, thought he needed time to develop. Wentz surprised me in that aspect by being able to play right away. I feel the same about Trubisky, he has the intangibles but system he plays is one that hasn't translated well to the NFL. He is under center a lot less than Wentz was, and he didn't do it very often either. - Takes care of the ball, only had 3 INT's going into the Sun Bowl (I say BEFORE the Sun Bowl because he ends up turning it over 3 times in that game alone) As for the Sun Bowl, still came away with the same feeling I had to start the season. - First series, was excellent, nice throws, great mobility and great pass on a skinny post for a TD. - Rest of the first half was mediocre to piss poor and he didn't get much of chance with Stanford controlling the ball. Had a really bad INT on a bad read. Stanford started in a 2 deep safety look but didn't drop one, kept one in as a robber and he didnt see him as the crossing route came across the middle from the other side and threw it right to him. Then right before the half he ran into the umpire running the ball and fumbled. Stanford's defense outside the first series kept him in check. - Second half was more of the same. The reason they got back in the game was not because of his arm, it was because of the running game. Threw another horrible INT that went for a TD the other way. Saw him make some nice across the field throws but they just didn't move the ball. Stanford did a lot of disguising coverages, especially the Safety robber look and he always seemed to go to the wrong side on that, including on the second INT he threw. Missed a couple of WR's that were wide open. Took a bad sack outside of the pocket when in FG range when his team was only trailing by 5. DId lead a nice 98 yard drive at the end of the game but Stanford was sitting back, not attacking like they did for most of the game. I hate this system for evaluating QB's, so difficult, don't envy the scouts who have to put their jobs on the line endorsing or passing on these guys. He would be a fool to go back for another season, the sooner he gets to the NFL the better off he will be. He is extremely raw but has potential. Think the point is moot unless Pace is going to work a Eagle/Ram type deal with the Browns which I wouldn't do for this guy (wouldn't have done it for Wentz or Goff either). He is an Ohio kid as well which after the criticism the Browns got for passing on Wentz last season, will make it even more difficult if this kid comes out and proves himself worth of a top 5 pick. The 49ers and Browns both need a QB so I would be shocked if a QB drops past them because this draft is very weak in my opinion. A guy I did come out of this game impressed with was Solomon Thomas at DE. He was in Trubisky's face all day, absolute beast. Going to watch my personal favorite QB in this draft Deshaun Watson today.
So Deshaun Watson and Clemson kicked the every living crap out of Ohio St. I personally enjoyed that very much because I have a strong hatred for Urban Meyer and nothing better than to see him get absolutely humilated in the national spotlight. As for Watson, he had another solid game in the spotlight. While a lot of it was done with his legs, he did make a few nice throws and some solid plays to contribute to the ass whooping. He did have a couple of bad Int's which unfortunately has been a problem for him this season. Early on I think this was a product of him trying to do too much but now you have to start wondering if it just is who he is. First one was underthrown and the WR slipped making it easier for the DB, second one was a tremendous play by the DB. Again, it is really hard to judge his transition to the next level. He is going to need some work but love this kids leadership and ability to perform on the biggest stage. Watson last year had Saban completely frustrated as they couldn't stop him, Saban said as much when asked after the game as to why he went for the onside kick, he flat out said "Because we didn't think we could stop Watson". I think this kid has all the tools to be a great QB but is going to need a very good OC and QB coach to get him there. If Fox stays and the Bears do go to a ground and pound with Jordan, Watson could easily be a Russell Wilson type QB where he can make plays with both his arm and his legs. Still prefer this guy over any other QB in this draft and he still has one more game to go. Very curious if he can cap off a stellar career with a huge upset over an extremely good Alabama defense. Came away from this game extremely impressed with Clemson on defense, totally dominated Ohio State from start to finish. This kid Clelin Ferrell is one to watch in the future, I have watched all of Clemson's big games this year (Louisville, Florida St.) and this kid came up big in all of them and didn't disappoint last night, carving through the Ohio State line making plays all over the place. Hats off to Dabo Swinney and Defensive Coordinator Brett Venables for not only the job they do recruiting but the players they are putting on the field. Clemson lost a lot on the defensive line over the last two years but haven't missed a beat.
I was watching parts of this game and thought he was very poised for the most part with a couple mistakes. Are you and Patg sure this guy isn't worth the #3 pick? To me, in the limited time I've seen him, he looks better than how Jameis Winston looked a couple years ago at FSU. And he seems bigger and more athletic.
Won't speak for Patg but I love him. He has dropped on a lot of the "experts" draft boards because he didn't meet their expectations and he wasn't as accurate this season. He came in with sky high expectations and in my opinion, tried to hard to do to much early in the year. With that being said, Clemson still won games. I have concerns there as well but think this kid has what it takes to be great. You are right, he is a better athlete than Winston, probably compares better to Mariota who I liked a lot when he came out. They actually both played in similar systems. If you can build a good defense and give this kid a running game, allowing him time to develop, aka what the Seahawks did with Wilson, he could be the guy we are looking for in my opinion. I still think he will climb back up the draft boards because of the success of Mariota and this year, Dak Prescott transitioning to the NFL. Think he has better arm then Dak and is just as good of an athlete as Mariota. We will see what the draft process holds, but I don't change my opinions based on the ridiculous pre-draft process, i go based off of what I see on the field where it matters and all this kid has done is win since he took over the starting role at Clemson and anyone who can give Nick Saban fits and put up 40 points on his defense, is good in my book. Jared Goff did nothing in comparison to this kid and was the top pick in the draft last season.
I'm not as sold on Watson as Aggie is, but I feel he can be successful in the right environment--which I get is kind of a broad thing to say, but I'll elaborate. I wrote up earlier in the thread, right after Clemson beat Louisville, that Watson lost credibility in my book when asked in the postgame presser about how Louisville, a top NCAA defense kept changing schemes on him, going from 3-4 front, to 4-3, to 5-2. Watson was asked how he identified them and adapted to each and he gave the reporter a whopping "I don't know." "What the fuck do you mean you don't know, you're the fucking quarterback?! Are you telling me you cant read a fucking defense?" Popped right into my head. Clemson truly runs an intricate offense. They have a rare playbook at the NCAA level, because they're part NFL pro-style, part air-raid, part read option, part pistol, part dozens of other looks, its a truly diverse, well run, and well executed playbook. The answer by Watson made me think "okay, he's clearly a product of this unique offense." I like Watson's mid-long range throws, he's comfortable and accurate with some power in throwing them. In the Louisville game, in the OSU blowout yesterday, when 2 of the top NCAA defenses, and probably top 5 secondaries in the NCAA try to take your better, comfortable passing lanes away, he still made throws. He's clearly honed his craft and has bested the NCAA level. Unlike Matt Barkley now, whom it was clear that as soon as teams saw him after his 3rd start, figured out how to take his comfortable throws away, and that's why we've seen an assload of interceptions from Mr. Barkley. If we got a Russell Wilson/Seattle style offense, where Watson is rolling or being comfortable in the pocket and then like Wilson identify and pick a lane to run/escape (he's managed at the NCAA level to know when to do so), I think he can be quite the effective quarterback. If we're talking continuity in Dowell Loggains' playbook, where he will have Watson sit in the pocket and get rid of the ball ASAP like Hoyer and Barkley, I think he'll be significantly less effective, probably a bust.
I wasn't impressed with Trubisky either......still am not. He preyed on weak defenses and secondaries this year, and got smacked around when he ran into good defenses, like VT in film I showed earlier in thread. Size is good, accuracy is promising, but......don't trust the reads, don't trust the ease in transition some analysts are projecting of learning NFL styled offenses, as he'll come from North Carolina's 5 WR spread short pass offense. Thomas grades to be a late 1st rounder right now. I would guess he'll improve and can become the 3rd, challenge for 2nd best edge in the draft with Barnett behind Garrett, the obvious best talent in this draft. My favorite quarterback is Luke Falk, if he comes out. I like how he calls 60% of his own plays, completes multi read offensive plays, and have dangerous downfield arm and accuracy. Gabe Marks is an average receiver and looks like an all pro and IMO Falk is why. He's highly intelligent, like Carson Wentz, a guy I was wrong underestimating how his intelligence increased and improving his abilities. Falk isn't as polished as Wentz, and his mechanics aren't as advanced as Wentz's are now, its something he needs work on, and a reason he's a 2nd or 3rd round guy if he comes out. I like the intelligence side, also in Deshaun Watson. As I mentioned above I have some issues with Watson. A thing I don't trust with Watson is how lazy he would get when he was ahead and comfortable. Clemson blew out a lot of teams this year, and Watson would finish games with 2-3 INTs, all coming in the 2nd half after Clemson pretty much won the game and were coasting. He cant do that at the NFL level, NFL teams dont get comfy 40 point halftime leads. I'm curious to see what comes of the 2nd-4th round picks. I think Pace is going to trade down in one of the rounds, he likes movement and has shown he'll do so in the NFL in his 2 drafts. I really like any one of the 2 big Washington defensive linemen or 3 big secondary. Vita Vea and Eli Qualls are great 5 techs. Sydney Jones is probably a mid 1st rounder, a guy who reminds me a lot of Desmond Trufant in size and style, and school. Kevin King is a mid round CB I like, and Buddha Baker is a FS, late 1st early/2nd right now behind Malik Hooker and Jamal Adams. After Roderick Johnson and Ramsey Ramszyk, there's a drop in talent at OT coming out. How do you not overreach in a very weak OT class this draft? Dion Dawkins out of Temple has trouble with speed rushers, Julien Davenport hasn't seen better than D2 talent, Eric Magnuson isn't a left tackle, Mason Cole will be a better guard than tackle, and a bunch of thin, left coast linemen in Chad Wheeler, Zach Banner, Conor McDermott, and JJ Dielman?
I like Falk as well and if Pace fails to get one in the 1st round, he would be a top my list of the guys in the second round or later. My biggest hesitation with him is the failure of QB's in the NFL that played in Mike Leach's system. I try and treat each as an individual but it's hard to overlook. Watched a few of his games this season and he had good and bad moments but definitely has potential. Think that will come with maturity, he will be challenged weekly on the NFL and this kid has risen to every challenge on the collegiate level. Think he got bored because like you said in an earlier post, he has just dominated the collegiate teams and needs a challenge which is why he plays so well in the big games. I will be shocked if he doesn't rise back up into the top 3 QB's in this draft when all is said and done. What do you think of the Webb kid at Cal? Seen a few sites high on him. I haven't watched him play much but when I did, was not impressed.
True, but one thing Cliff Kingsbury, Graham Harrell, and BJ Symons didn't have under Leach at Texas Tech was to have the amount of autonomy over the play calling Falk has. Falk calls 60% of the offensive plays on his own. That's trust and intelligence Symiens, Harrell, and Kingsbury never were in the neighborhood of. He has had good and bad moments, and until the Washington game where he (and that entire team) got buried I thought he was a late 1st rounder. He kind of reminds me of Matt Hasselbeck. He stands in the pocket, isn't mobile, but can elude trouble, has a solid arm and can locate a nice pass--though isn't a gunslinger, and most importantly--he keeps his damn eyes downfield and makes solid decisions, unless he's playing Washington, where WSU wasn't even in their league. Neither am I. 1 year transfer starter after Goff left last year, and still relatively unimpressive stat wise. He's tall in the pocket, and really stares down receivers, had that problem coming from Texas Tech.
I think Falk said he's staying in school. Pace wouldn't draft him anyway. He wants a player with track star speed and a broken fucking leg. Or is that just for scouting wide receivers?
Leach said after the bowl game he expects Falk to return. Falk hasn't said anything concrete, yet. I believe he still has until a little later this month to declare, as do other underclassmen. There are going to be a lot of burner, slot smurf receivers this draft......I wouldn't mind the change of pace from 6'2 Meredith, 6'4 Wilson, 6'4 Jeffery. Royal and Bellamy suck....... And the bears will need at least 2 WRs and a TE.
SAN DIEGO ? Quarterback Luke Falk was non-committal when asked after Washington State?s 17-12 Holiday Bowl defeat to Minnesota whether he would return to WSU for his senior season or leave early for the 2017 NFL draft. ?I?m not focused on that at all,? Falk said in the post-game news conference at Qualcomm Stadium on Tuesday night. ?All my effort?s been toward the team and that?s irrelevant at this point. Next question.? Leach said Monday that he believed Falk would return for his senior season. ?It won?t be his last game,? Leach said in a news conference Monday in response to a request to quantify what Falk has meant to WSU if the Holiday Bowl ends up being his final college game. By his standards, Falk had a rough game, finishing 30 of 51 for 264 yards with one interception and a touchdown, and 74 of those yards came in the game?s final drive which culminated in a garbage-time touchdown pass to Kyle Sweet. Falk?s 58.8 Holiday Bowl completion percentage paled in comparison to his 71.0 season average. He did, however, tie his own single-season record for 38 passing touchdowns, and he finishes his junior season as WSU?s and the Pac-12?s all-time leader with 1,047 career pass completions. http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...en-asked-if-hell-declare-early-for-nfl-draft/
Will going back to school help him at all? This seems like a good chance to come out. Lots of shitty quarterbacks in this class.
It can.....but like you said, this seems like a really good chance to come out if you think you got it. He's in position to battle Kaaya for 4th best QB in the draft......after Kizer, Trubisky, and Watson. He's not a top 1st rounder, he could be later 1st at best if some things go his way. I partially agree with Mongo on another thread that seemingly every draft has "a weak quarterback class." Its all about putting the kid in the best position to succeed. The Raiders got Derrick Carr an offensive line, weapons, and a solid run game and a coordinator getting results (full disclosure I'm not familiar with Bill Musgrave as an offensive coordinator). Dallas had Romo and Prescott in a huge position to succeed with that line, weapons, and Elliot being a running beneficiary and a semi-competent playcaller in Garrett. Seattle did so when they got Wilson to replace Matt Flynn with Bevell. With the league ever-changing, that may be the best route to go, meaning the bears may swing and miss on a top 3 pick at quarterback.....he has the interior line, one receiving weapon who can potentially walk out the door come early March, and a solid running back. Tackles, secondary and tertiary receiving targets aren't there, and you have an offensive coordinator who until this point, hasn't been able to put it together.
I agree and I like him better than Kaaya. Playing another year in Leach's system won't benefit him much at all in my opinion. Unless he got a really low grade from the draft board, I'm not sure this was a good move on his part. Very curious how this plays out, read online today that Deshaun Watson may participate in the Senior Bowl. That will give a good look to the Bears but also the Browns who are coaching in the Senior Bowl as well.
