NFL - Random Opinions

They measure in at about 18” so you might not be that far off, lol.

 

Im not sure. One thing for certain is, each game between those 3 teams is very huge and I mean no disrespect for the Lions, but the division is better than I think a lot of folks give it credit for.

Bears actually should be better offensively and with that defense, that's a lethal combination. Packers are better too. If I look at things objectively and without purple glasses on, the Vikings might be a 3rd place team vying for a WC spot.

 

It feels like the Lions are a last place team but they made the playoffs 2 years ago and had injury issues last year. Some team or 2 are going to be majorly disappointed.

 

Let's see how I did.

Incorrect:
ARI
ATL
BAL
CAR
CHI
CLE
DAL
DEN
DET
GB
HOU
IND
JAC
LAC
MIA
MIN
NYG
NYJ
SF
WAS

Correct:
BUF
CIN
KC
LAR
NE
NO
OAK
PHI
PIT
SEA
TB
TEN

Would have been nice to hit and go over that 50% mark but 12 out of 32 (37.5%) will have to do.

 

Now for fun (since you have all the totals), what would have happened if you simply picked over for all of them and under for all of them?

 

Cooper, Julio Jones, Thomas and Hill are all 'cat and mouseing' it with their respective clubs, to see who gets a deal first so they can attack accordingly. We talk about the RB's and the cash money they rake in, but these WR's are going to set the bar at the $20+M/yr territory... amazing.

 

Dolphins and Redskins are having some very interesting QB battles... really big decisions to be made.

 

Apparently Dallas has extended offers to Dak, Zeke, and Amari - be interesting to see where they slotted Coop.

 

Interesting to see with todays explosive QB and Receiver attacks... the importance of great CB's and Safety's is skyrocketing. The ebb's and flow's of the game are interesting to me.

 

Week 1 Thoughts -

Bears 3 - Packers 10

Chicago is going to struggle so long as Trubisky is the starter unless Nagy can find ways to limit his exposure through the ground game and play-action. Mitchell struggles with some basic accuracy and at this point his decision making is simply not good enough to be an NFL starter. David Montgomery, Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen need to be the focal point of this offense.

We could be looking at another great Bear's defense getting wasted in it's prime due to an inept offense.

For the Packers, Rodgers showed all the signs of a quarterback that didn't play in the preseason, but I think there is more to it than just that. He looks far removed from the 40 touchdown season he had roughly 4 years ago. I don't think Green Bay can simply walk into any weekly match-up with the attitude of 'Aaron can win it for us'.

Fortunately for Green Bay the defense looks up to the task of keeping them in the divisional hunt this season. There is a lot of youth and speed on that side of the ball and it was on full display in week one.

Kenny Clark should be discussed more as one of the best defensive linemen in the game.

 

Redskins 27 - Eagles 32

The Redskins deciding not to dress Adrian Peterson was one of the bigger head scratchers to start the season. I'm not sure what Gruden was thinking but with Derrius Guice now nursing an injury to the opposite knee he was recovering from it will be Adrian as the lead dog again. Washington just finds ways to make life harder than it needs to be. Keenum played maybe a little better than expected but I believe Dwayne Washington will start for the Skins coming out of the bye.

Not a lot of 'Ws' on the schedule for Washington this year.

DeSean Jackson is a monster when he has a quarterback that can get him the deep ball so we're going to see some more of those big plays this year. Alshon looked strong in the opener and Darren Sproles managed to make everyone remember just how good he can be on game day.

There's a lot to like about Philly but I still think the schedule limits them to 9 or 10 wins and a second place finish in the East.

 

Chiefs 40 - Jaguars 26

This one went down pretty much how everyone expected, but the biggest happening of the day was Nick Foles suffering a broken clavicle. He's likely out for the majority of the season but rookie Gardner Minshew played a helluva football game and may make it so that Foles doesn't return as the starter even when cleared. Gardner displayed a good understanding of the offense, quick decision making and some pretty solid accuracy. I need to see some more of him before I'm ready to tab him as the future for the Jags but it could be that Jacksonville backed into a franchise quarterback early in 2019.

The Chiefs suffered injury as well but losing Tyreek Hill for likely 6-8 weeks probably doesn't slow down the offense as much as what some expect. They'll have to change some things up but they have enough talent to ride it out and possibly develop some younger players for expanded roles down the stretch. It will be interested to see what they do with Shady McCoy and Damien Williams but I get the feeling that both will be heavily involved throughout the rest of the season.

 

Rams 30 - Panthers 27

Christian McCaffrey is going to put himself into the MVP conversation this season. He's probably the closing thing the league has seen to Marshall Faulk in some time when it comes to all around ability within an offense. Unfortunately, he likely will spend the early portion of his career in an offense that features a quarterback that has lost his spark. Cam just doesn't look like the player that led Carolina to a Super bowl. It might be time for the Panthers to start considering moving on from Newton, especially if they struggle enough throughout the year to put them in range of a high pick in the first round.

There was a reason Malcolm Brown got the contract he did from the Rams and it wasn't because a rookie running back was going to come in and push him down the depth chart. Gurley and Brown worked in tandem to roll on the ground in week one and that will likely be the way it works for the majority of games this season. It's probably the best way to approach it for L.A. considering the chronic arthritis that Gurley suffers from. Considering how strong they are on defense, so long as the ground game is effective there will be plenty of chances for Jared Goff to prove hes worth every nickel of his new contract.

 

Falcons 12 - Vikings 28

This game was set up nicely for the Falcons to get slapped around in week one. The Vikings defense is solid, their ground game will be improved and Atlanta has issues away from home.

The recipe for the Vikings to win this year was on full display. Anytime you can limit the amount of times Kirk Cousins has to throw to 10, you're definitely upping the odds to come away with a win. Dalvin Cook looked sharp and Alexander Mattison looks capable of being the guy if Cook gets sidelined this season. If you're a Vikings fan you gotta be in good spirits seeing this kind of performance in week one.

For the Falcons, if they can't run the ball on the road they are going to lose a lot of games played away from the state of Georgia. The defense is just not good enough for Atlanta to travel and be forced to pass the entire game giving the opposition more clock to work with.

The upside for the Falcons would be that Calvin Ridley already looks like one of the best route runners in the NFL and Austin Hooper may have finally developed into the weapon at tight end that everyone has been waiting to see.

 

Titans 43 - Browns 13

This is an outcome that not too many people expected after an off-season that featured a lot of analysts calling for the Browns to win the AFC North.

Cleveland's offensive line is going to be a problem this season. The depth is probably the biggest issue long term, but in the immediate they came out flat in week one and we're pushed around for a lot of the afternoon by the Titans front 7. After Robinson was ejected and Lamm was injured, the Browns ended up taking a safety. But even though the pressure came quickly my real issue with that particular play was the lack of situational awareness by both Kitchens and Mayfield. The momentum was trending against them, it's a bad spot to run play-action in and the quarterback has to know to get the ball out quicker.

I don't expect that lack of awareness to be a trend and it's all part of growing and learning for both coach and player.

I still have a hard time trusting Marcus Mariota to be the quarterback to lead Tennessee into a deep playoff run, but Corey Davis needs to get his act together in a hurry to help out his quarterback. At one point in the third quarter, a pass from Marcus to Corey was a touch high but still easily within Davis' wingspan. Corey heard the footsteps, tightened up and let the ball slip right over top of his hands. At some point this season it will be A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries leading the attack at wide receiver.

Also, the Titans defense is going to be one of the best units in the NFL in 2019.

 

Ravens 59 - Dolphins 10

Not a lot of people picked the Ravens to win the AFC North. I happen to be one of them, and some of what we saw on week one is the reason.

A monstrous ground game and a sound defense can still be a winning combination in today's NFL. Granted, this wasn't much of a test for Baltimore, but it did show some of the elements that I liked coming into this season. Lamar Jackson has the ability to snap his wrist and deliver the ball 60+ yards through the air with authority. When you run effectively and force the defense to respect it you can get speed receivers and big bodies on the outside either behind the safeties or matched up in man single coverage. Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin are going to be excellent compliments for this offense and Mark Andrews is going to have a solid season moving the chains for Baltimore.

The Dolphins are in for a long year of getting ready to rebuild in 2020 and beyond. The offensive line is atrocious, so all of the talk about who should start at running back in the off-season was wasted air. The lone bright spot is probably rookie wide receiver Preston Williams. It may take until year 3 before the offense is good enough around him to showcase what he can do, but he looks the part of a number one option at wide receiver.

 

Bills 17 - Jets 16

I don't know how many times I repeated it this off-season, but I know it was a bunch, so let me say it again...

The single worst move of any team this off-season was the New York Jets hiring Adam Gase as their head coach.

Jets fans are going to have to settle in for a lot of games where defeat gets snatched from the jaws of victory.

Overall, Sam Darnold looks like he can take the next step to become a franchise passer but having Gase guide him is only going to hinder him. The addition of Le'Veon Bell to this offense is going to help but it won't be enough on it's own to get them to the next level. Jamison Crowder was the bright spot in the air attack, and that is not a good thing. Maybe when Herndon returns some of the quirks will start to work out but New York looks like they are a long way off from competing in the East.

Josh Allen played better than what his stat line may reflect. He was generally accurate throughout the contest and made some solid decisions. In order to help him succeed the Bills are going to have to find ways to push the ball the width of the field by forcing receiving options to be more involved.

Spread the field and the rushing lanes will open for both Singletary and Allen.

 

Bengals 20 - Seahawks 21

Cincinnati can probably feel better about a loss than any other team in the league this week. They traveled to the West coast and went up against a likely playoff team and stood their ground for most of the game. The Bengals have enough on their roster to not go into a full rebuild. With a bit of retooling, new head coach Zac Taylor can have them competing for the AFC North by 2021.

The Seahawks have the look of a team that will play in a lot of these close contests, but they have the right quarterback to get them more wins than losses when they need to finish late. Seattle will play solid defense, pound the rock with Chris Carson and work their way into 9 wins or better in 2019.

 

I just don’t get how a QB can go from a missed FG away from getting his first playoff victory in his first full season as starter to not being good enough to be a starter in the NFL after one bad game. 1st game of the season no less. You think maybe it could have been a little rust?

To say Nagy needs to limit his exposure vs Nagy needs to call a more balanced attack so that play action is actually a thing would be more accurate in my opinion.

Mitch does struggle with some basic accuracy at times. So does every other QB in the NFL. I mean the kid did complete 67% of his passes last year no? And don’t give me the short throw nonsense. He attempted the 3rd most deep passes in the league last season.

Mitch might not be the answer at QB long term but he built enough equity last season to buy more than one game worth of confidence.

 

It depends on what your evaluation was of Mitch coming into the league and what you believe his value has been so far as a professional quarterback.

I didn't have a ton of faith in Mitch being a franchise passer and said as much prior to the Bears taking him. I think he is limited in what he can do on game day because of his accuracy and processing speed. It's something that has been confirmed for me in his brief time as a starter.

Can he improve on those areas? Possibly, but I have seen virtually nothing to give me that kind of optimism.

But that is limiting his exposure.

By having him pass less and forcing the defense to respect the run it gives Trubisky the opportunity to work off of cleaner looks and creates space between linebackers and defensive backs (expanded levels).

Less attempts and cleaner looks = limiting his exposure.

It's not nonsense if it's a fact. Not attempted, but completed deep throws vs completed short passes would make for an interesting argument. So... How about comparing deep ball completion percentage to underneath or short completion percentage? I would need someone with a PFF subscription to confirm this for me but I believe they posted an article where he tracked out in the bottom 10 of the league when it came to accuracy on his deep passes.

Some other things to look at would be -

He was 25th in yards per game.

18% of his passes qualified as bad throws' placing him as the 6th most inaccurate passer in the league.

For someone that had confidence in him prior to this season or potentially entering the draft, I can see that.

But I'm coming from a point of view that had/has very little confidence in his ability to become the franchise quarterback the Bears were hoping they drafted.