NFL - Random Opinions

After the game Josh Allen threw some shade many people on twitter were too dumb to notice. They thought he accepted the loss and moved so others need to be quiet but at the end of his saying rules are rules and that he can't complain he said "if we won the coin toss we'd be celebrating, too".

 

He's probably right. Both defenses were so gassed they weren't stopping anyone.

 

I hear you, its not to suggest kicking them the ball was without risk, it wasn't. But giving the ball to Mahomes also has great risk, as has been categorically proven.

This reminds me of an article i read ages ago that i'll never find now. It was an analysis piece written by someone like Judy Bauttista on nfl.com tho i just searched that and it wasnt her. Anyway, it was written i believe in the offseason after the first season of the new kickoff rule. We think nothing of the 25yard line now but remember at that time there was genuine debate about whether teams should be just giving the opponent that free extra 5 yards.

There were some supporting numbers about the few times the ball didnt reach the endzone and was ran back and average starting position in those circumstances. The crux of the article was posing the question should teams now actively try to land kicks between the 5 & the goalline because often times when they did, return teams didnt just fail to make the 25, they quite often failed to make the 20, due to coverage teams starting from higher up the field, the banning of the wedge blocking scheme etc.

Ultimately NFL kickoff coverage teams have not gone this way in the years since, probably put off by the potential cost of a return TD and prob even familiarity/acceptance of the notion of the 25 being the new start point. But the numbers were actually compelling.

Again, there would've been risk kicking to Hill, altho my opinion is that unless he was able to get the farside edge on his return there was minimal chance of a big return/TD. It should be noted that returning kicks isnt just about running fast, Hill isnt even the Chiefs normal kick returner i think Pringle maybe?

Im kicking that ball to them without a doubt. Its the difference between the Chiefs having 1 play to reach FG range vs two. And that is a huge difference.

 

I wish I had access to the analytic guys program that runs the numbers. I bet the percentage of running two plays to get into FG position from the 25 with under 15 seconds to play is lower than that of fielding a kickoff and returning it into FG range, which automatically stops the clock as soon as the runner is down. I could be wrong, obviously we all know that percentage is rather high around here.

Don't get me wrong, I think the overall percentage for in game kickoffs is down because teams don't want to spend as much time on kickoff returns in practice. This new rule has pretty much made that if you have a kicker that can kick deep into the endzone 90% of the time, you don't need to spend very much time at all on kick return. I also think this is what skews the numbers in the favor of kick teams keeping teams out of the 20-25 yard line more regularly. Teams also don't spend much time on returns. The returner is taught that if it will definitely reach the end zone, don't even attempt to field it.

Hill isn't their regular returner now, but he used to be and he was one of the best in the league. He became too valuable to the offense to put him at risk on these plays and has been replaced by several different returners. Hill has speed, but his ability to read the field and players is what makes him so dynamic, not just the speed. He can see holes open and close based on how the players are positioned. That is hard for a player to learn, they either have it or they don't, Hill has it in spades.

I'm just saying I can see both sides of this and I don't think either is the wrong way to go. There is blame to go around because it didn't work out. That's on the defense, not the special teams. If they kick and he returns it, then it is on the special teams and people would be calling for their special teams coordinator's head this morning for taking the chance of kicking to one of the most dynamic players in the entire NFL. As special teams coordinator, I would have made the same decision. They have the number one defense in the league, show up and do your job the way we just did our job, that would be my mentality as the ST coordinator.

 

Of course eveyrone (not really) is crying for changes in the overtime rules because of the way kc won last night but, If we have all said defense are gassed and they arent stopping anybody then on the bills possession they are going down and score to tie the game again. Unlesss time is up they now have to kick to kc who takes the ball and now all they need is a field goal (because its now sudden death) against a defense not stopping anybody. End results KC wins. Several people are saying the allen and the bills didnt deserve to lose well on the flip side niether did Mahomes and the chiefs. As i said i would like to see both sides get the ball but i dont think it changes anything from last night. Those calling for the college overtime rules are even worse the college overtime imho is awful. College rules and they might have gone in 14 overtimes before one team failed.

 

I would prefer to keep current rules for regular season and then in the playoffs go by shortened quarter. 1st OT quarter 10 minutes. If tied after the OT quarter, then have similar to college, including you must go for two after a score. You can't just keep playing for 3 more hours, teams would never recover from playing two games worth in one week, for the following week.

 

One thing they could do would be to keep everything the same in regards to OT rules, with one change. Make it the same for an initial OT drive TD as it currently is for an opening drive FG. If the first team with the ball scores TD or FG on first drive, the opposing team is awarded a drive...If still tied after both teams' first drive, then sudden death.

 

Buffalo got their asses handed to them for their own stupidity. They didn’t perform good enough to win and deserve their loss. Buffaloes defense sucks ass. Everyone said Pittsburgh got destroyed giving up 42 points to KC, well buffalo gave up 42 points too, so fuck them their defense is no better than the Steelers as a matter of fact the Steelers played better seeing how their defense scored a

 

Lol, the Steelers gave up 35 points in the first 3 quarters, then a trash TD in the 4th when it didn't matter any longer.
The Bills gave up 23 points in the first 3 quarters, a FG on the 4th quarter opening drive, then 10 points in the final 1:30 seconds of the game and the game winner in OT

Keep telling yourself the Steelers defense is as good as the Bills.

For what it's worth, the Bills defense will be declining the next two years as Josh Allen starts to collect his Elite QB money, so you have that to look forward to.

 

They both gave up 42 points to the Chiefs. The only difference is that the Bills offense didn’t lay an egg. If the Steelers could of had any kind of offense they would have sent the Chiefs packing

 

lol! Get real gid. Enjoy the playoff participation trophy. Remember, ya'll received that because of bad clock management by the Chargers and a colossal choke by the Colts in the final week of the regular season. So seriously man, nobody wants to hear about how you guys would have sent the Chiefs packing if only you hadn't lost by 3 touchdowns.

 

on a related to OT note...

Andy Reid: Overtime rules helped us, but both offenses and both defenses should play



When the Chiefs were on the wrong end of the overtime rules, losing the AFC Championship Game three years ago when the Patriots scored on the first possession of overtime, they proposed changing the rules that offseason. Today, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said with a laugh, “I’m glad we didn’t change them.”

But even after beating the Bills on Sunday night without his defense ever taking the field in overtime, Reid still thinks the rules should change, and he believes there will be renewed interest in a rules change this offseason.


“That, I’m sure, is something they’re going to look at again,” Reid said. “I wouldn’t be opposed to it. That’s a hard thing. It was great for us last night, but is it great for the game, which is the most important thing we should all be looking out for? To make things equal, it probably needs to be able to hit both offenses, both defenses.”

The Chiefs didn’t get much support the last time they tried to change the overtime rules. Sunday’ night’s ending felt like a game that could cause a groundswell of support for a change.

PFT

 

I said If we had any offense, we kicked the bills ass during the season if you remember.

 

Aaand there's another one that nobody cares about. A one score victory in week one.
Steelers season is over. Ya gotta deal with it. The Packers were the overall NFL #1 seed. They lost by 35 in week one....Nobody cared about that either.

 

I hear a lot of take the coin toss out of the equation arguments saying the kc buff game should not have come down to who won the coin toss. I can see that argument i suppose but the propsal I would put forth wouldnt be liked by most. How about this if a game goes to overtime in the playoffs home team gets the ball first. Teams spend all year earning home field advantage. Being that just playing at home no longer seems to be an advnatage put something on the table that makes itman advantage tomplay at home. In addition to this seeding has to be changed to win loss record being the deciding factor in seeding. Team a won their division but was were 9-8 and team b finished 2nd in a diffrent division at 11-6 then team b gets the home game. No winning your division should not equal a home game when a team has a better record (as always just one mans humble opinion).

 

Still stings, huh?

 

That offense that the Steelers played this season stings

 

Let's take a trip down quarterback lane., starting with the AFC...


BAL: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Josh Johnson
Baltimore is probably in one of the best situations in all of football when it comes to having a starter complimented by primary backups in a fashion that affords them the ability to stick with the same game plan regardless of starter status. Huntley will likely draw some interest from quarterback needy teams this offseason, but he'll likely be on an ERFA contract for the Ravens so I doubt he's going anywhere. Josh Johnson would be a decent passer for them to hang onto with some low rent.

BUF: Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky
Josh Allen has quickly become one of the most lethal signal callers in the NFL so the drop off from starter to backup will be significant. The Bills will probably try to retain Trubisky but I think he's going to hit the open market and have some suitors in an offseason that doesn't feature big names in the draft. He's a worthwhile backup to have for a quarterback that can be physically reckless at times.

CIN: Joe Burrow, Brandon Allen
Cincinnati finally has their franchise quarterback that looks like the kind of passer that can dominate the AFC North for a decade or more. Getting an upgrade at the backup quarterback position may not be high on their priority list, but it should probably be given some serious consideration if the opportunity presents itself at a realist cost. Considering Brandon Allen will be an UFA this offseason, looking in another direction is a simple move.

CLE: Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Nick Mullens
This will be the most watched quarterback situation in 2022 as the Browns are going to have to make a decision on the future of Baker Mayfield in Cleveland. The backup situation is kind of ideal as Keenum presents a lite beer version of Baker (or, more like O'Douls). Mullens most likely won't be back on the roster as a UFA. Cleveland may look to upgrade at the backup position and if they do there should be some weight given in analysis to the type of passer they bring in.

DEN: Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Lock, Brett Rypien
I like Teddy Bridgewater and I thought he had a chance to carve himself out a 'Chad Pennington' type of NFL career. However, he never had the same step into his throw after the knee injury and, with an already less than powerful arm, the loss of strength combined with his age makes him a quality backup for another team. The physical tools are there for Drew but he doesn't appear to process quickly enough at the NFL level. He likely will get a shot to compete for a quarterback needy team in 2023 when he is no longer a Bronco. Rypien will likely be on another practice squad in 2022.

HOU: Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, Deshaun Watson
I think Davis Mills has played well enough to earn an opportunity to start again in 2022, but with a new coaching staff coming in there is a big mess with Deshan Watson coming on the horizon. Flores wanted Watson in Miami, so if he is hired in Houston he will likely pull all the stops to get him to come back and play for the Texans. I'm not a fan of it, but if it does end up rolling that way then the Texans have a solid situation at passer with the duo they might field. Tyrod is a UFA and will likely end up to the highest bidder as a primary backup.

I think the more likely scenario is that the Texans find a way to work with the league to ride out Watson's contract until the June 1 cut/trade date so they can dump him off the roster. There's $35mil in savings that can be had for a trade after that date.

IND: Carson Wentz, Sam Ehlinger, James Morgan
There's some buyers remorse right now in Indy over Carson Wentz, which may make this one of the more interesting teams to track this offseason. If the Colts believe they can win now, which they should, then going after a passer this offseason may be a must. Just how will they do it? Well, they can deal Wentz for peanuts post June 1 and recover a nice chunk of change, but the bigger issue is affording the cost of acquiring a high end talent at passer. They have no first round pick in this draft, so best case scenario would be one of the premiere passers forcing themselves into being released. I don't see that happening, so the upgrade would have to come in FA or the draft (without that first round pick).

I think the Colts should probably be the favorite to sign Mitchell Trubisky.

JAC: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Beathard
A forgettable rookie season ended on a high note as Lawrence played well in the win against the division rival Colts. When you add up all of the mitigating circumstances to Trevor's first season it's difficult not to give him, and the Jaguars organization for that matter, a mulligan on 2021. I expect him to rebound some in 2022 but we may not know how close he can come to his ceiling until 2023. In the meantime, upgrading the backup quarterback should be something they look to do this offseason and I would advocate for a player like Tyrod Taylor to come in.

 

KC: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Shane Buechele
For my money, Patrick Mahomes is the best signal caller in the NFL. Still only 26 years old and with a chance to play in his third straight Super bowl, how can you not be impressed? The Chiefs are set at passer for years to come, but they should look to upgrade at the backup position this offseason. I like Chad Henne and I was an advocate for both him and Matt Moore to get a chance to start in Cleveland back around 2017, or 2018 (somewhere during the Kizler/Kessler years). Apparently, Andy agrees with me on both passer being at least viable because he's had them both on his roster during his time in KC. However, this offense needs an arm with more pop in the event that Mahomes were to miss a 4-5 game stretch. It could be the difference between making deep playoff runs every year for the next 10 or falling behind in a player race in an AFC West that now features Justin Herbert.

If Jameis Winston can be had for a discount, Andy Reid and the Chiefs bench may be the perfect fit for him. I'd resign Henne as a backup but more a defacto quarterbacks coach.

LAC: Justin Herbert, Chase Daniel, Easton Stick
The Chargers are in an enviable position with a high ceiling, young signal caller that will be entering the conversation at the top of the NFL pecking order very shortly. Justin Herbert will be the reason why LAC remains in the hunt in the AFC West for years to come. Chase Daniel may be brought back as a competing backup, but both he and Easton Stick should be upgraded sooner rather than later.

LV: Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota
The safety blanket that Mariota provides when healthy will be gone in 2022 so the Raiders will need to address the backup situation. However, an argument can be made that they have reached their ceiling with Derek Carr and that they should be looking to upgrade the position sooner rather than later. Could Vegas be in the mix for one of the premiere passers that may hit the trade market? It's an interesting concept in that they won't be tethered to a coaching staff that has any ties to Carr and Derek may make enough of a trade value for a potential suitor that it lessens the draft capital required a great deal.

I think Las Vegas is a team to watch in the Russell Wilson/Aaron Rodgers scramble.

MIA: Tua Tagovailoa, Jacoby Brissett
Word broke after the regular season that the ownership in Miami wanted Tua over Herbert and overruled Brian Flores in the matter. An early report had Eric Grier siding with the coach, but later reporting had it that Grier made the decision to draft Tua. This feels like ownership going to the GM and telling him to step in front of the hail of media bullets that was about to drive by Miami. Regardless of how it went down, Tagovailoa is the man in South Florida, so the next coach is probably going to need to at least roll with him for 2022. Brissett makes for a quality backup that can be asked to start a couple times a season with some success.

There is potential for a big bounce I Tua's play if the coaching staff that comes in is committed to seeing him succeed long term for the Dolphins.

NE: Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, Jarrett Stidham
There is a cap to Mac Jones' potential, but I like him to be successful enough in New England for the Patriots to continue to be in the mix for the AFC East for the next decade. If he continues to clean up his play and makes more good decision than not, he's just quality enough to create wins. The Hoyer/Stidham stack makes just enough sense for the Patriots to stick with it again next season.

NYJ: Zach Wilson, Mike White
Zach Wilson played 2021 exactly as I suggested he would prior to the Jets selecting him. He had an occasional flash of talent, but it was surrounded by volatile play and sketchy decision making. The Jets are going to continue to roll with Wilson for at least one more season but the potential for them to be back in the quarterback market for 2023 is a lot more realistic than some will want to agree with. Mike White makes a nice complimentary player so having him rostered again in 2022 makes sense.

If there's a chance to snag an aging veteran passer to help Zach clean up his mistakes and play cleaner football it should be a priority this offseason. Tyrod Taylor would be at the top of my list.

PIT: Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins, Joshua Dobbs
This is likely Ben's last season for the Steelers, but his name stays on the list until it's official. Mason Rudolph may go down as one of my bigger misses in the draft when it comes to passers, but I'll hedge that until I see how he performs as the clear starter (if that is the case in 2022). Dwayne Haskins could end up taking the starting role, but I think it's a longer shot than what some imagine. In fact, there is probably an easy argument to be made for dressing Josh Dobbs over him on most weeks, so bringing him back for another season is an easy signing.

I like Mason to end up being a bridge passer and potentially earn a low budget starter's contract that lasts through 2025 as the Steelers retool the current roster and deal with some cap implications while going through the growing pains of having a franchise passer retire.

TEN: Ryan Tannehill, Logan Woodside, Kevin Hogan
There is a chance here for the Titans to take a swing at Rodgers or Wilson, considering there is some money to be saved pre June 1, and a larger chunk post. There may not be a rush to do it, or any sense of urgency, but at some point the Titans are going to take a swing at a passer (probably not in this draft, but it's not too far off in the future).

The stack with Woodside and Hogan backing him up is a decent complimentary situation.