NFL - Random Opinions

Lots of moving parts here but I just wanted to make this point that I think is getting overlooked -

When discussing how a quarterback is performing against a rush that is getting home consistently, it's both a one off and a cumulative affect that needs to be separated in the conversation. A quarterback can play like shit under pressure for 5 straight downs then explode and rip off 10 straight completions. The win/loss factor or how the numbers at the end of the game look only matter in comparison to whether or not the cumulative affect had an impact. As for the individual play, it's simply spotlighted as a snapshot in time of how that passer reacted to that pressure.

All quarterbacks have issues being knocked off of their comfort spot. Some simply fold, some find room and others seem to make the impossible happen.

Where the pressure comes from affects passers differently. Russell Wilson can sometimes turn immediate pressure in his face into a gift because of how quickly he can get lateral and make plays with his arm outside of the pocket. He's one of the few that can still maintain a high completion percentage moving both directions, but he still favors one side. It's extremely difficult to try and rush him up the middle while keeping contain or bringing additional heat on the outside without having him burn the dbacks to ashy fucking toast. The best way to send heat is to bring it on both edges and hope to squeeze him up in the pocket, while praying he doesn't just take off and gash you with his feet.

Kyler Murray is going to be extremely similar to Russell in that regard, just as soon as Kingsbury works the bugs out of his offensive line enough to keep him from being forced to move up in the pocket/out of the pocket on nearly every down. One difference between the two of them that won't change is how diminutive Murray's stature is. It's enough of a difference between he and Wilson to make an impact on how he deals with pressure. It's also one of the reasons you had to have faith in your personal projections for how well he would play as a pro, because size does matter when it comes to quarterbacks. They don't have to be the prototype build to be successful, but every inch and pound that is shaved off of that prototype makes it just a touch more difficult to stay healthy, see clearly through lanes and shake off rushers when they get hands on you. With Murray, it's never going to be a thing where he can stand tall in the pocket when the rush is in his face.

It's really difficult to see the fucking trees when you're the rooster running from the bears. lol

That doesn't mean he can't be successful in games where the rush is right at his feet more often than not. It just means that on the plays that they don't get to him he has to be on the money.

He might suffer lower numbers on the plays where he is getting tagged. It's on him to make sure he makes the most out of the ones where he doesn't.

Brady is a different animal altogether. He's about as mobile as Joe Flacco, but at least he doesn't look like a damn stork when he tries to run like Joe does. lol

Pressure off the edges forcing Brady up into the pocket doesn't hurt him nearly as much. It would have to come from the outside and get to him so damn fast that he never has a chance to take that step up, and unless Lawrence Taylor is lined up on that edge the chances of that happening are pretty damn slim.

However, if you present that rush straight into his face he is then forced out of his comfort spot and into wading waters that are deep enough for the sharks to get to him. Then it's just a matter of running him down while each step he takes makes the chance of the play being positive dwindle.

He's a typical pocket passer in that regard. They all struggle with pressure right in their face, compared to mobile quarterbacks that can roll and still hit.

Just to tie this back in with the original discussion real quick like - Baker's athleticism isn't as high level as Wilson or Murray's, so both sets of pressure can be applied to him and affect his style of passing. When he's clean and given routes that favor his strengths, Mayfield will have a high completion percentage and be very effective.

Not a lot of Sundays are going to be played like that though, and that's the reason why he feasts on the Bengals and the like, while struggling with the upper tier teams.

And one more thing I want to mention about that first Super bowl between the Giants and the Patriots -

Probably the most overlooked aspect of that game would be how Pierce and Torbor were able to keep Welker and Faulk from turning those little underneath routes that the Pats used like extended handoffs into routinely solid gains. More often than not, the catch would be made immediately followed by the tackle for short yardage. It put the Patriots into more second or third and long situations that aided the pass rushes ability to get home. The more grass that needs to be covered to hit the sticks makes for more time for routes to develop, which leads to more time that Brady is forced to hang onto the ball.

 

Fair enough. The last 10 years...

2011 - 2nd- lost SB
2012 - 17th-lost AFCCG
2013 - 13th-lost AFCCG
2014 - 21st- won SB
2015 - 2nd- lost AFCCG
2016 - 7th- won SB
2017 - 1st- lost SB
2018 - 21st- won SB
2019 - 17th- lost wild card
2020 - 23rd- tbd

so there doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between success and passer rating under pressure for Tom Brady. Is this the point?

 

and written that he was the worst the next season.
straws, grasping. even your own stats have let you down tremendously.

 

They were regular season stats but I'm sure you probably knew that.

 

Written?

 

i was going to write "said" but i didnt want to offend you

 

Brady(patriots) post season success is just ridiculous

 

and thank you for this beach bum, i'm gonna save this for the next session of "how to beat Tom Brady"
2011 - 2nd- lost SB
2012 - 17th-lost AFCCG
2013 - 13th-lost AFCCG
2014 - 21st- won SB
2015 - 2nd- lost AFCCG
2016 - 7th- won SB
2017 - 1st- lost SB
2018 - 21st- won SB
2019 - 17th- lost wild card
2020 - 23rd- tbd

 

Oh I see now. I missed the comment under the tweet. Now reading it you are basing your argument off something you maybe, maybe not heard. Strong argument.

 

For the record, Brady's QB rating for 2017 against the blitz was 83.0. I don't know where that ranks him because they don't list the blitz success like they do the pressures but it definitely doesn't put him last.

 

what are you talking about?

listen man i dont really care to continue this, maybe you do. if you want to say "the way to beat Tom Brady is to pressure him" keep going on going even though you yourself proved otherwise with your stats. i still contend that many stats are flawed, even the ones that support my stance.

i've got nothing bad to say about you beachbum, we obviously disagree and thats ok.

 

You literally used "how can he be the best one year and the worst the next" as your talking point and didn't even have that data. A bad approach to proving your point. Makes you look like you're defending your guy.

 

ok, you watch a lot of football and i didnt put a link up to the season where Tom Brady was statistically the worst vs the blitz.

still........

2011 - 2nd- lost SB
2012 - 17th-lost AFCCG
2013 - 13th-lost AFCCG
2014 - 21st- won SB
2015 - 2nd- lost AFCCG
2016 - 7th- won SB
2017 - 1st- lost SB
2018 - 21st- won SB
2019 - 17th- lost wild card
2020 - 23rd- tbd

 

In 2017, I'm going to guess Deshone Kizer was at the bottom of every list. Versus pressure, versus blitz, versus no pressure, versus a random group of high schoolers, etc....

 

There's lots of stats out here on the thread and I have no side in the debate but, one question I would bring up is the kind of blitz or where a team brings most of its pressure from. For instance, the Steelers like fast, edge rushing LBs and bring most of the pass rush from the outside.. A team that runs a 4-3 or has an ILB that rushes the QB is an entirely different situation.

Either way, it's an interesting subject. It seems that these things are worth more of an in depth look rather than what may only be on the surface of what's been presented so far.

 

I like digging into these topics, and you’re on the money about which numbers to view and how to weight them for either argument.

My first thought is that you can’t draw more than a cursory foundation off of total season percentages when dealing with pressures. It gives a rough idea of whether or not a player is affected by the rush in that it only reflects each play in a bubble.

You’d have to break it down game by game, use TD/INT ratio as one subset, rating as another, comp percentage, yards per play and then break those down a second time for situational football (down/distance/time remaining/current score). Then you’d have to compare pressures to sacks, converted to positive/negative rushing yards, throwaways and outcome of each individual play.

You would have to weight those individual markers to your own bias and create a number for it.


Sounds like a lot of work, right?

Yep, I’m gonna need another bottle of Wild Turkey before I start sorting this out...

 

Thought this graphic was interesting considering the conversation here

 

"I don't think a lot of people want to give credit to how well [Baker] is playing given the situation," said a coach close to the 25-year-old quarterback. "Excuses get made for everyone else, but he's in another new system with more new faces around him and there was no preseason. They're still acclimating to this offense and gelling together as a team. And the Browns are 5-2; let's not forget that."

 

Damnit! and I was trying so hard to be acute.

 

Can we all at least agree on me thing with the “competition”?

Brady has played in the same system nearly his entire career.

Brady is PLAYING the game and took that game style with him to TB.

Bellicheat is now TEACHING the system to new players.

which one seems like they would be more successful in the short term?

Brady who has been doing it 20+ years.. right?
Not Bill the ho is starting over teaching a new group..

just my two cents on Gids statement.

for the record I can’t stand either one of them. I wish for 0-16 for both of them.: