IF Williams wins, lights it up stats-wise and out-plays Fields, he will have earned a big-assed contract... I dont see that as a negative.
Whether Joe Milton has the complete skill set to be an NFL quarterback remains to be seen. But there are no questions about his arm strength. Milton showed off an incredible arm at the Scouting Combine today. On his best pass of the day, Milton dropped back to the 10-yard line, gave Mississippi State wide receiver Lideatrick Griffin some time to run downfield, and then launched the ball. It eventually landed in Griffin’s hands at the opposite 20-yard line, 70 yards downfield. Milton, who will turn 24 on Wednesday, spent three seasons at Michigan and three at Tennessee. He started five games for Michigan and never played particularly well, but he was better at Tennessee, where in his final season he completed 64.5 percent of his passes, threw 20 touchdowns and five interceptions, and also ran for 292 yards and six touchdowns. If he’s drafted at all Milton will be a late-round project, but he sure does have an NFL arm. PFT
Xavier Worthy isn’t just fast, he just ran the 40 faster than anyone else in the history of the combine with an official 4.21
Doesn't matter, Washington will take him at 2 if the Bears don't. I like guys like Odunze and Fatanu who are now top 10 picks who competed at the combine. Odunze actually requested more attempts to improve his 3 cone because he was not satisfied. That is the kind of player you want in your building. I have never seen an NBA prospect do that because I stopped watching those jagovs over 20 years ago. Between Queen James, Iverson, and Ron Artest they don't deserve my attention or even a thought for that matter.
I won't make this into a basketball thread... but James deserves all respect due him. The man just hit 40,000 points, which has never been done and probably will never be repeated with rules on age to enter the league today. He stepped from a high school court to the NBA court and dominated from day 1. You don't have to like him, but he definitely deserves respect. Edit: by the way, his 1,700 points more than 2nd place Abdul-Jabber is done in 85 fewer games.
Just to say my comment re that was intended in a purely general sense and not as a sly insult towards you. In a purely general sense its totally true. I don't recall what you said about Stroud around that time but happy to take your word for it, good call. You havent applied the context in which he was discussing Mayfield. That context being that he's a very tough grader who looks for greatness, with a name check of Andrew Luck. As irishdawg himself says, "obviously a miss" in that context. Which it obviously was, which btw there's no shame in that, we all get some wrong. I'm going to posit that we can look at the Mayfield hit/miss question in 3 little made up metrics. 1- Irishdawgs criteria. 2- The team that drafted him. 3- Overall career. 1- Already covered, obvious miss. 2- When a team takes a QB #1 overall its done with the goal of them being a franchise player who is there a long time. I'd suggest pro bowls and "top10" ratings come into it but really, it can be distilled down very simply. If you take a QB #1 overall and he doesnt see a second contract with your team, then that pick was a miss. The abstract reasons like career threatening/ending injuries or something unforeseen off field dont apply in this case. Mayfield just wasnt good enough in Cleveland. What he goes on to do with his 4th team means nothing to the Browns, they had the pick of any QB in that draft, they took Baker and then they didnt give him a 2nd contract. Actually they traded him away for peanuts and paid the other team $10mil to take him off their hands! Clear miss. 3- Well, 4 teams in 6 seasons tells its own story. A below average career passer rating to date rounds it out some more. Mayfield's career was well on its way to being a miss. BUT.....then TB happened. 2023 was a good season for Baker. Technically he's a pro bowler now after that season, tho im gonna pump the brakes a little considering he was i believe a 2nd alternate lol. Still, it was a big step in the right direction. I guess this one was always gonna be incomplete while he was still in the league. As a career it was starting to look like a miss. It may still be. But he seems to have found himself a comfortable spot, and if he gets a new contract there its very possible Mayfield will turn out an overall career that can be widely considered a hit.
Been pretty busy the past few days so I apologize for not keeping up with things. Circling back to the questions - In case I continue to be time restricted, all of this comes from a conversation that someone started with me over the Bears and the odds on trading Fields. There are considerations that get ignored when breaking down situations for teams that involve making large moves, namely the idea that front office personnel and coaches are in more of a protective mindset than the people analyzing the value of swapping out players, trading picks and any other potential changes. With that in mind, there needs to be reference points for GMs and coaches to point at as strong reasoning on why they chose a certain path. For the current pairing in Chicago, they need to be able to point at statistical data points, player evals, cash/contract implications, scheme considerations, potential increase/decrease in value at the position and, ultimately, a persuasive argument for why the path they have chosen should be entrusted to them for multiple seasons. The last point is the one that supersedes most of the others, as protecting their job is going to be at the forefront of every decision they make. I believe the Bears are going to draft Williams and trade Fields for a market that could be as high as a second, but I think it could settle in as a pair of picks, somewhere along the lines of a conditional 5th and 3rd that could become a 2nd. I’ll go into a bit more detail when I have the extra time, but I wanted to make sure I got this posted while I had a moment this morning.
Absolutely, personal motivation on the part of the decision maker(s) matters. Ironically enough given we're talking about the Bears QB situation, Justin Fields as a Bear is a huge product of this. At the time Ryan Pace was a dead man walking who should already have been long gone, but he was given 1 more draft and in a desperate bid to prolong his own clock he pushed the button on a QB reset*. Now, the fact Fields was drafted by the Bears was never the real tell, it was the fact that Pace allowed himself to get fleeced in the deal that was the real tell. The price a GM is prepared to pay is often an excellent tell to their desperation level/how much they are basing decisions on "protective mindset" as Tim puts it. Thing is, in most cases the level to which protective mindset encroaches into what should be objective decision making is tied to how safe the decision maker is in his job. More pointedly, how safe he perceives himself to be. Which is why in terms of what we're talking about here(the Bears/QBs), the protective mindset issue is far less in play than you might think. Ryan Poles is very secure in his job and he knows it. Despite the fact Poles had little influence over it, the Carolina Panthers being abysmal and gifting the Bears the #1 pick is something Poles gets a disproportionate amount of credit for. I mean it was always likely to be a top half/top 10 pick and for that yes Poles deserves credit, but actually landing the #1? That is an outcome so incredible that there's no way it could've been the plan. Anyway, what im saying is while i agree with Tim's premise, imo there are levels to how much it matters on a case by case basis and in this case its probably not as big a factor as some people think. * There was a Bears poster who doesnt stop round anymore sadly, but he worked front office for a MLS team and he shared some fascinating insights into the mindset behind the things we're talking about here. In particular the things he said about "the button" and the QB position is something that stayed with me over the years. I regularly look at GM/QB decisions through this lens and with very few exceptions the logic has held up. Like so many great insights, when you understand it, it seems so simple.
There's been lots of people here posting about this subject like they know what they're talking about and you know what? They do! Its been impressive how much everyone has a handle on the issues related to a team thats not theirs. This began as my starting point for a Fields trade. Frankly, knowing that Fields has been better in Chicago than Darnold was in NY(easily), my expectation was higher. It doesnt feel like its working out that way tho. I probably didnt factor in enough just what a fleecing this trade was, funny since i was all over that point here when it happened. Prob because there was no 1st rounder involved this trade doesnt get the infamy it deserves, but make no mistake, this was a horrific trade made by a desperate team(owner mostly). Looking at this offseason and its hard not to draw your gaze towards Terry Fontenot re all this. He might have a pretty good roster on his hands, but its being wasted by his failure to find a QB. The losing record has been the same all 3years he's been there. A 3rd, 4th & 3rd place finish in a pretty bad division only makes it look worse. As does an ageing owner who speaks publicly about needing to win very soon. Fontenot looks like a prime candidate for Tim's protective mindset, and yet here we are with no big swing made. Guess it could happen, but not yet it hasnt. Two possible explanations for this: 1- Fontenot knows where he stands and his job is secure, maybe moreso than it seems to an outsider. 2- Fontenot is so lacking in awareness that he doesnt realise the peril he is in. Cos you have to feel that if the Falcons record in 2024 is worse than 7-10 then the GM is in real danger. The situation doesnt lend itself to 1 imo, but it would take a pretty dumb guy for it to be 2. Time will tell i guess.
Completely agree on the idea that there is variance within and the level of job protection, or perceived protection, and that goes hand in hand with how it plays into the mindset and decision making that always has a viewpoint of limited opportunities in that specific career, with a limited shelf life for more than less. However, I disagree on the level of confidence that Poles might or should feel. Right now, he's a first time GM that is staring down the barrel of moving off of one first round quarterback to draft another. On its face, this move will immediately buy him and the coaching staff at least 1 year, probably a full 2, before the consequences of that decision will be realized. If Caleb is great, then Flus and Poles will be there until the record doesn't match the franchise passers potential. They will basically get the first two seasons to prove they are on the right track, but if the bottom falls out of the win column in year 3... There's also the possibility Caleb struggles from day one, which would have a likely house cleaning by the end of Williams second season. The comfort level is only as good as the outcome, and Poles hasn't put together a long enough track record to point back at within the building and say "This is where I got things going in the right direction. This is where the wins started and the losing stopped." There's a large difference in situations where a franchise like Pittsburgh, that rarely makes quick changes, has a head coach and GM royally fuck up with their decisions at passer than there is for a franchise like Chicago that gave Pace/Nagy the opportunity to draft a career saving signal caller before ultimately moving away from the coach, and now likely the player, in a rather rapid fashion. This pick, and the decision to change quarterbacks, will likely define Poles tenure as a GM in Chicago.
Thoughts on Amarius Mims being top 15-20. Huge RT with upside. However 2 ankle sprains a pulled Hammy and only 8 starts. What say you? Boom or bust for me . My opinion might be more favorable if he goes through a full workout at his pro day..
I think you could slide Mims inside to RG and he could be better off. I still don’t see first round value but I understand the value because of his ceiling.
I agree on Poles, but if they decide to keep Fields and they don't make the playoffs.. Eberflus butt is red hot. If they don't make the playoffs, he is GONE On the other hand, if they choose to "upgrade" and take Williams #1 overall, BOTH are safe for at the very least 2 seasons, possibly 3... It's easy to keep your job when you have a rookie QB to blame. Edit: On the other hand, when they trade Fields and draft Williams, that move will dictate Poles future status. If Fields takes his new team to the playoffs, while Williams wins 6 games or less in 2024... Poles might not be as safe as you think.
He is one huge fucking building block, lol. With his size and fluidity, put him with the right OL coach and he could easily be one of the better day one picks in this draft class. Top 15-20? Yeah, I could see it. Wouldn't be shocked at the possibility of him sneaking in a bit higher than 15. There are a couple tackles in this class that may be viewed as right side only, or possible guard candidates by some evaluators. IMO, Mims doesn't project well to guard and has starting LT potential, if properly developed. I think the absolute high-water mark would be 12, 14 feels like a decent spot and 15-20 sees at least 3 teams that will be in the market for line help. Gonna have to be the right situation though, or else the learning curve could have too many twists to see him reach his full potential. I'm comfortable with a team taking him in that range and wouldn't be surprised if he skipped Latham or Fuaga.
I see him passing Latham, who is too heavy, but not Fuagua. When they interview Fuagua and tried some levity, he would just stare at them and want to talk Football. Dude is all business and is in the ass kicking business.
