Off topic but this is just so funny to me 2024 NFL Combine: Draft prospect says he doesn't 'believe in space' and 'other planets'
That was the Texas Tech safety Owens. Now look up what the Illinois TE Reiman suggested. Are these guys just seeking attention or what?
Impossible to "realistically"... But I love to speculate, LOL! Without knowing whether the Bears have 1 team interested or 5 teams interested and what that level is, we will never know until the deal is announced. For instance, if (3) teams believe there is one clear prospect that they think will have a 75% chance of succeeding and the other 2-3 are in the 45-60% chance of succeeding, they are going to covet that 75% guy to the Nth degree. So, I will use Washington, New England and Atlanta as an example. Obviously, there are (3) tiers of value here, based on the board the Bears are picking from. If they only have (2) QBs and (2) Non-QBs listed as blue chip prospects, they may not need a 40% upcharge to the value chart to move back 2 spots... however, they will need that to move back 7 spots. According to the chart (which is outdated) this is what each of the 3 teams would need, if they didn't send anything back to the teams: Bears #1 overall pick = 3,000 Washington #2 - 2,600, #36 - 540 = 3140 , 5.5% premium for QB New England #3 - 2200, 2025 first round pick - 1000 = 3200, 6.5% premium for QB Atlanta #8 - 1400, #43 - 470, 2024 first round - 1000, 2024 2nd round - 420 = 3290, 9% premium for a QB Now, they say for a premier QB, moving within the top 10 carries about a 17% premium So... Washington will more likely be giving up #2, #36 and #40.... or #2 and 2025 First rounder New England will more likely be giving up #3, #68, 2025 first round Atlanta is going to be giving up #8, #43, 2025 First round, 2026 First Round I think this will be very close to the expectation for trade... Now, if ANY of these teams think one or two other QB(s) is close to Williams, then all bets are off and those values don't mean shit....
MY next question is, what can the Bears realistically expect in a trade for Fields? The chatter is getting louder, whether that is real or there to help get the juices flowing for a better trade at #1 overall... who the hell knows?
Like you mentioned, the value placed on Williams by each team is going to influence this a lot. Moving to the next question - How close are the Bears realistically to winning the NFC North or making a serious playoff run?
I'll say 3 years IF they nail this Draft and next years. Even if Williams is a stud in todays NFL, the o-line needs addressed and other areas on the team to completely balance the team, Id even say the coaching has to miraculously improve or they need a serious replacement consideration. And then there is the Lions.
I don't totally disagree with you here, but they were 7-10 and lost 7 games by a TD or less... I don't think they have to be 3 years away. I agree 100% that the right personnel is the only way to get it done in less than 3 years though. Counting on a QB to come in and change your stars is usually the recipe for doom for a coach and GM... I've seen it first hand time and time again in Cleveland. Stefanski and Berry have done it with their ability to find players and put them in position to succeed throughout the roster... The QB, for the most part, has been the least successful endeavor of their tenure for the Browns and they are no where near in jeopardy of losing their jobs... That is because of the core of the team outside of the QB. Some teams are lucky enough that the core is made up of a franchise QB, they are few and far between. I would argue that in the current NFL, the Chiefs are the only team setup this way that is succeeding. Every now and then a good QB can/will shine, but the greats can do it consistently. The Bears core is not complete..some would say it is broken. They need a lot of key personnel to turn it around completely.
My answer to that is, where did the Panthers finish, who chose before the Texans? I'm a broken record at this point, but it all comes down to the evaluation of Williams. If you have the guy rated that much higher than nearly every QB coming out over the past 5 years, then I agree, you can't pass on him... I just don't have him rated that highly..I don't see the same elevation from Williams that I did in Stroud. Evaluations are the most important part of a GMs employees, if they suck at it, they will need a new job within 4 years....
Here is another pretty important red flag... Ian Rappaport is reporting that no team is willing to pay a historic haul for the #1 overall pick. WHAT YEAR wasn't there a team willing to pay to move up to #1 for a QB? I get it if there isn't a QB in the draft worth discussing, but supposedly there are (3) going in the top 3 picks. If every GM evaluates these players as not being highly touted enough to put their future at risk, maybe they simply aren't good enough to change your franchise...maybe they are all wrong, but it is still a red flag if the Bears can't get a single viable offer to consider...It would worry me..especially after the reports that Williams doesn't feel all that excited to play there. Let's look back though... He grew up in Washington DC, then high tailed it out of there for better weather in Norman, OK... then transferred to even better weather in Southern Cal.. Let's not forget, Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma because he thought the USC job would be better than the Sooners... He brought with him, Williams in the transfer portal and it didn't work all that great for the Trojans... I'm just saying, if Lincoln brought him with him for success, where is all the success? They were 19-8 over their two years together at USC. That is a big time program that doesn't operate in the SEC or B1G, so the competition levels are much lower. B1G had 4 of the top 10 defenses in the country in 2022 when Stroud played... The SEC had 2, the Pac-12 had 1 in the top 20 (#16 Oregon State, which held USC to 16 points).. In 2023 they had 2 in the top 20 (Utah was #13, USC scored 32 on them and lost at home) (Oregon was #20, USC scored 27 on them and lost on the road) Again, I agree with previous posts, one guy can't make a team win... But this guy attended one of the top programs in the Pac-12, with arguably one of the top coaches in the country. Stroud attended one of the top programs in the Country, with a middle of the road coach, and continued to keep the program at the top in the country. I don't think we should be comparing Stroud and Williams...
This one is just for the Bears fans What do you consider a better option: Scenario 1 Fields, Harrison Jr, Laiatu Latu, Jackson Powers-Johnson 9-8 record in 2024, New coach in 2025 to go along with (2) First round draft picks, (2) second round draft picks Scenario 2 Williams, Laiatu Latu 7-10 record at best in 2024, no extra draft picks in 2025, Eberflus gets a pass on 2024 due to having a rookie QB running the show...That will be the most likely outcome if they stay at #1 No one can see the future, but the Texans are a very rare breed to turn the franchise around after turning the reigns over to a rookie QB.
I wasnt comparing Stroud to Williams at this juncture, just responding to the sentence you posted that, "Counting on a QB to come in and change your stars is usually the recipe for doom for a coach and GM"... you did say 'usually', but sometimes someone does the impossible and completely turns a team/program around. I believe Williams is touted highly along with Maye and Daniels for good reason, but Im no expert or critiquer as such, but a lot of 'professionals' would agree that they are special at least in this years draft... gotta work with what you got.
Next question - Financially, what are the positives and negatives of keeping Fields or drafting a passer at #1 overall?
You buy yourself another 3 years on a rookie contract. Which in turn, allows you to spend more on front deals in free agency and resigning your own guys. There isn’t really any negatives financially imo
Caleb Williams “I’m only providing medical To top teams I’m meeting” Family decision . WTF is this crap
I'm having this discussion with multiple people, and the only negative that has been mentioned by a pair is that Caleb's second contract is likely to be much larger than what Fields will be, but there is probably a 3-year gap between those deals having to be made. I would add that other potential negative/positives would be an increase in the number of rookies coming in from trading that first round pick, which would be high slots and increased first wages but longer periods of reduced money for youth.
It depends obviously. Field’s has another year on his rookie deal, the 5th year option which is approx $26M and the franchise tag. This keeps Fields at a reasonable pay scale for QBs for 3 years. If he blows up, that’s a great problem to have, if he doesn’t, then you will have to weigh your losses based on what Williams does, both statistically, helping his team and future earnings. He may end up making less money than Fields. In my opinion, with the cap increases, it’s irrelevant. QBs get paid, that’s the way of today’s NFL. If the Bears were smart, they would go ahead and extend Fields to a 4 year contract that pays him a base $25M / year, incentives that can get him to $45M / year and guarantees around $35M.
On the surface I got no quarrel with what Caleb said, he’s perfectly within his rights to keep a tight circle on his PHI and he’s not necessarily wrong to point out it’s not worth his time to jump through the proscribed hoops for teams who won’t realistically have the chance to draft him. How often do we see NBA prospects do this when a team drafting high up assures them of their draft status? How often do we wish athletes would speak openly and honesty about certain subjects? And then when they do we can’t wait to drag them for it. The real underlying issue is the dad is an overbearing a-hole, but the history of the league is littered with the corpses of knuckleheads who don’t understand how collective bargaining works so I’m not going to hold it against a kid trying to do what his dad wants him to. Once he’s in your building it shouldn’t be too hard to squeeze the dad out of the picture. As a Pats fan, I’m doing backflips if the Bears and WTF’s wipe him off their board over this.
