I'm not lawyering anyone, jackass. lol I'm just setting the table for some other questions cause I'm interested in looking at it from a few viewpoints. Don't wanna participate? Don't let the door hit ya...
That is just my jackass way of saying I don't want to answer it now. Honestly I'm not even sure of his actual stats off the top of my head.
Okay now I feel less of a jackass. No, Fields stats are not good enough but the sack and pressure rate is crazy high on him and while some is on him trying to hold it for a bit too long it's just ridiculous how bad his protection is. He runs but it's hardly designed. This line how it is cannot give any QB hope. They'll waste development or worse. It's unfair to think he can overcome it all because he should. He has done well enough with what he has IMO if it was all in a bubble.
Let me add. I know the Bears actually do hold the line a good amount of time. But I don't think it's very good quality and Fields is also making it last longer. The stats some people point to saying the Bears have the best OL in the league is laughable.
An interesting read irishdawg. To pick up a few things specifically: As an approach to roster building this is out-the-box, insightful and highly persuasive. Its never been done before because of the set of circumstances a team needs to be in to make the process work. You could argue the Bears have got thru the hardest part in terms of "earning" the #1 pick while having a good young QB themselves they want to stick with(circa 2023) and a team prepared to make the big move up. That a prospect like Williams comes in to bat next only aids the process more. And as you've identified, the Patriots would be a prime target for this, for numerous reasons. Ultimately, the calculation comes down to could a GM really commit to this kind of approach and in the face of taking an incredibly talented (and incredibly hyped) QB at a time when the game is dominated by that position. The calculated bastard in me loves it. But there's this other guy who's already been forced to sit thru what feels like two lifetimes worth of QBs who cant even throw for 4,000yards in a season. As i said on the Bears board, this is the first time im glad im not making the decision for the Bears. But it doesnt change the fact that what you suggest is extremely thought provoking, which is what we're meant to be here for. Well done! This is one hell of a take. And i get you're just stating your opinion, but it has to be noted just how far from the mainstream you're straying with this. I know we take the "experts" and journalists with a pinch of salt, but no one i have seen or read from associated with this league agrees with what you just wrote there. And i've seen and read a hell of a lot the last few weeks. Everyone i've seen/read would place Williams above last years QB class, comfortably so in fact. I've seen Williams described as the best prospect since Lawrence, Burrow and even Luck in various places. The 3 constants in life are death, taxes and people being retroactively smart a year after the draft and i would advise against falling into that. Yes CJ Stroud has been incredible and well done to him, but he was considered the #2 QB by the vast majority leading up to that draft and so it played out. The idea that Bryce Young was a better prospect than Williams is, is far fetched to say the least. I only mention this cos thinking what you do tells me your opinion of Williams is probably unusually low. The ripple effect of that is wide, taking in Williams vs Fields, Williams vs Maye/Daniels, Williams vs draft haul. Its not just Moore, a lot of his team mates agree with you. Moore isnt even the only one to say it publicly either. Fields is extremely popular in the locker room. He may not be a big rah rah on the sidelines type, but he very much leads by example. Known as an extremely hard worker, tough as nails and a leader people follow. Caleb Williams may have Fields covered for Mahomes impersonations, but he'll do incredibly well to match him re the above.
SO true. And in this case the elephant is both extremely large and sitting in your favourite chair. The Bears have made an absolute artform of going through this process out of sync. They did it with Trubisky, they did it with Fields and they'll do it with Williams because once again the idiots kept the HC. Once again a Bears QB will be trying to succeed in spite of the situation not because of it. This is what happens when you have the dumbest football know-nothing ownership in the league. Im not sure there is anything practically applicable to the current decision tho. At least, not if you think Williams is as good as hyped. The time to break the cycle is at the HC part, not the potentially generational prospect part. Everything you say is 100% right. Its partly why the case to keep him is so strong.
They arent even close to top half. The kindest thing you could say is they're bottom10. Poles has had 2 full offseasons to build a line for his QB/offense and they're bottom 10, maybe bottom 5. Even the offensive rushing numbers, which presumably elevate the O-Lines grade, are inflated cos a lot of those numbers come from Fields scrambling, not designed runs. That is all Fields.
On Tuesday at the Scouting Combine, Eberflus and Poles kinda sorta made it sound as if they are moving on from Fields, they certainly havnt said anything to counter that or made any claims that he's the guy. Here's what they said in brief; Poles said, Fields need to improve when it comes to passing from the pocket and when performing in two-minute situations. Eberflus said the Bears need their quarterback to perform in third down, two-minute and the end of the game situations. “I look at situations,” Eberflus said. “I look at the guys that can operate third down, two-minute and the end of the game situations. That, to me, is a separator. And then you look at toughness. Toughness for a quarterback really is about the mental toughness to be able to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball, and then also have the discernment to be able to move out of the pocket and create when it’s necessary. They come in all different shapes and sizes. But it’s always been fun to evaluate those guys.” “If Justin’s back we’ll have a plan in place for that, if there’s a new quarterback we’ll have a plan in place for that,” Eberflus said. Just doesnt sound like a vote of confidence for Fields, imo. Regardless if they keep Fields or trade him, I seriously doubt they pass on Williams... he's been deemed the best prospect in the Draft.
I think most people are going to have something along these lines as an opinion when looking at his stats. At face value, they are simply not high enough to justify ignoring an upgrade and are low enough to easily point to as reasoning for drafting a passer, if that is how ownership and management decide to roll. Removing them from any kind of context and simply comparing them to his current contemporaries and basing it on the last 7 games of the season, Fields' numbers fall well below any point that can be used to justify confidence in passing on a quarterback at the top of the draft. As a quick comparison - From weeks 11 through 18, Justin Fields had 5 TDs and 3 INTs. Aiden O'Connel had 10 TDs and 4 INTs. Based strictly off of his statistics, without the nuance of situation, I don't see an argument that can be used to point to as justification for not taking a passer. If anyone has an argument or disagrees with the idea that his stats can't be used to support a decision for retaining him, please post it and I'll include it.
The next question: Keeping it based strictly off of statistics - What arguments can be made that Justin is a better prospect coming out of college than what is considered the top of this year's draft class? This could include one or any of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye ,Jayden Daniels ,J.J. McCarthy. ,Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix.
Yeah, it's a curse. Good, bad, or downright stupid, I've never shied away from having my own opinion, shouting it out when it's right and owning it when it's wrong. Look, when I evaluate QBs I look at ONE thing only. What's the probability of them adapting a skillset to the NFL? If they can't adapt, they are doomed, if they can adapt, then they have a realistic shot at least of sticking around the league as a starter for a few years. This is the hardest point of evaluation to make. Every QB has a skillset, otherwise they wouldn't have been drafted into the NFL. The generational guys, usually sneak up on you. These are the QBs that I feel are never going to fall out of the top 5 conversation when they are/were playing. Each and every one of them lifted their teams through the majority of their careers. And yes, even some had down years, including their teams, but if they won mulitple Super Bowls, they are on this list. Ones that did sneak up over the last 30 years Tom Brady - 6th round Brett Favre - 2nd round, traded very early in career Drew Brees - 2nd round, traded in his prime after an injury Aaron Rodgers - 24th overall pick Patrick Mahomes - In a year where the draft didn't have a QB go as the #1 pick overall, Mahomes was the 2nd QB chosen at #10 overall Kurt Warner - bagging groceries when he got the phone call Ben Roethlisberger - This was the toughest to place, drafted outside the top 10 and 3rd QB taken, however, the two taken before him are on the list below. Ones that didn't sneak up over the last 30 years Peyton Manning - #1 overall pick Philip Rivers - #3 overall pick same year as Eli Manning Eli Manning - #1 overall pick Honorable mentions (none of them have been consistent enough to do it year in and year out, even when Mahomes had a down year statistically, he LED his team to a Super Bowl win): Trevor Lawrence Josh Allen Joe Burrow Justin Herbert I may be missing some, feel free to add... The big part of this is... most of those names are now gone. When are we going to get the consistent top QBs challenging each other every single year? The point is, even the Andrew Luck's of the world don't always succeed. However, the Andrew Luck's of the world are the one's you elevate above other positions and possibly the QB currently on your team because they have shown generational abilities. I don't see Caleb Williams as an Andrew Luck. Obviously, that's just my opinion. I'm notoriously hard on QB prospects. Every year, I look for greatness and it is rare to see greatness. Sometimes it pans out, sometimes it doesn't. I anointed Baker Mayfield in that group, obviously a miss. I wish I could remember all the QBs I've given the thumbs up to, I'm sure it's a short list. But, only going back ONE year, as you stated above, I did call out Stroud, so I am going to take a little credit for it after one year, lol.
You shouldn't classify this as a 'miss' on your part. Baker has stayed in the league, taken multiple teams to the playoffs and is going to be getting a solid contract either with the Bucs or someone willing to price him out of their market. He may not be everything you envisioned, but he is most definitely not a whiff on your part. Mayfield should be on your hits list.
I look at it this way. I think Caleb Williams playing with the same crap offense will equal the same crap results. Trade back to 3 or 4 and get Marvin Harrison Jr. one of the better oline men at 9 and your next pick on oline too. Fields would have the Bears in the SB before Lamar would ever get the Ravens there. Harrison is the best WR to come out since Megatron. The Georgia Bulldogs would have lost the playoff game against OSU if Harrison didn’t get injured.
Based on the consensus #1 Caleb Williams College comparisons best season, ironically both occurred in their second season where they were both able to finish a full season. Caleb Williams 4,919 yards, 52 TDs, 5 INT, college passer rating of 168.5 Justin Fields 3,757 yards, 51 TDs, 3 INT, college passer rating 181.4 tOSU asked less of Fields than USC asked of Williams. Fields definitely had a better team surrounding him. However, based on the numbers, they both performed at a very high level in college. One statistic that none of the other candidates possess is the ability to lead his team against the highest caliber competition in NCAA. Fields was 20-2 in his two years at tOSU. Fields also ranks #22 All Time in the NCAA for pass per attempt, he ranks #5 All Time in the NCAA for passer efficiency rating, Caleb Williams is #24 pass per attempt and #14 for passer efficiency rating. So, I would say they are closely rated prospects coming out of college.
If my evaluation, based on stats, is accurate... What would be the reason to replace one QB with one that is on par with the one on your team already and has a lot backing in the locker room? To keep the salary cap lower? 2024 the cap will be higher... 2025 will give you TWO years of the salary cap being raised... it's all relative. Replacing players with like players regularly will never win you a championship... Has there ever been a team that won the Super Bowl without core players being in place during that championship run? There are a couple of teams with a new (maybe even sub-par) QB that have won championships, but their defenses were littered with solid veteran play. Anyone is going to have a tough time convincing me that trading in Justin Fields for a second round draft pick and replacing him with an unknown rookie is better than keeping Fields, adding Marvin Harrison Jr and at the very least two more high draft picks, more than likely more than 2. My argument is and has been, that drafting the best player in this draft is more advantageous than trading that right to replace a QB, that is at the very least, very competent.. with another unknown QB and not getting the added value along with it.
Looking at the stats it made my 3.5 brain cells hurt. When comparing Fields college stats to the 2024 QB class, I was able to make a case for and against Fields... Im trying to decipher which of the stats are more pertinent to todays game instead of just blatant numbers (if that makes sense, let me know). My first reaction after a quick view of stats with Fields vs the 2024 class was, this is a trick question, lol. Seriously as I consider the question while Im typing, I cant place Fields as better stat-wise, even tho he has some better numbers in key stats for QB's in this years class. Id have to say off the top of my confused head, there really isn't an argument, imo, that Fields is a "better prospect" based on some of his stats which are phenomenal at tOSU. I believe (personally) this years class is a notch better... thats my final answer.
Personally, I'm not sold on Fields being traded or replaced. I can see the Bears retaining Fields and taking Williams at #1. Another thing I've seen before is this... sometimes you can take the same team, with the same coaches and with the same personal and scheme and plug in a different QB and things click better. Not knocking Fields talent, just saying the Bears team as it stands right now at this moment, may be better with a different QB with a unique feel/touch. And at the same time, QB's that blow up the NCAA dont automatically fit in the NFL and furthermore Ive seen QB's that go un-noticed, drafted late come in and light the damn League up, lol.
I think most people would, at the very least, agree that there is an argument to be made that Fields is on the same level of profile when it comes to production in college that Williams will be coming into the draft. Of course, the nuanced look would be a mirror of Justin in Chicago, meaning the supporting cast comparison between the two would show Justin in a much better situation to produce numbers than Caleb. But, I think something that gets overlooked a lot in that discussion is how big of an impact Jordan Addison had on Williams numbers in 2022. In fact, an argument can likely be made that Kenny Pickett doesn't ever breakout at Pitt without Addison becoming a lethal weapon before hitting the transfer portal. Moving to the next thing - How big of a haul can the Bears realistically expect to get in a trade down from #1, how far would they be willing to go and what players would they be targeting after the move down? This is a bit of soothsayer shit, but it's one of the questions that the front office is working on getting an answer for, so all we can do is put together our best speculation on what it may be. We have some historical reference from trades that have happened in the past to guide us some of the way. Here are 4 examples with passers being taken after teams trade into the #1 or #2 spot since 1998: 1998 - #2: Arizona → San Diego (PD). Arizona traded its first-round selection (2nd) to San Diego in exchange for San Diego's first and second-round selections (3rd and 33rd) and first-round selection (8th) in 1999 plus RB Eric Metcalf and LB Patrick Sapp. 2001 - #1: San Diego → Atlanta (PD). The San Diego Chargers, who held the first pick, were unable to reach a contract agreement with Vick in the weeks leading up to the draft. On the day before the draft San Diego traded this choice to Atlanta for Atlanta's first-round (#5) and third-round (#67) picks in this draft, Atlanta's second-round selection (#48) in the 2002 draft and wide receiver/ kick returner Tim Dwight. 2012 - #2: St. Louis → Washington (PD). St. Louis traded this selection to Washington for first-round selections in 2012 (6th), 2013 (22nd), and 2014 (2nd), and a 2012 second-round selection (39th). 2016 - #1: Tennessee → Los Angeles (PD). Tennessee traded its first-, fourth-, and sixth-round selections (1st, 113th, and 177th) to Los Angeles in exchange for Los Angeles's first-round, two second-round, and third-round selections in this year's draft (15th, 43rd, 45th, and 76th) as well as Los Angeles's first- and third-round selections in the 2017 NFL Draft. The previous precedent is set for a low mark on the rung of #15 overall to get up to #1 for a passer. With that in mind, we'll set that as our wall: Bears Commanders Patriots Cardinals Chargers Giants Titans Falcons Bears Jets Vikings Broncos Raiders Saints Colts
I would have to be the fly on the wall that knows exactly what the Bears intent is towards Fields. Obviously, if a teams offer for #1 to get Williams is tabled that said team would really be at the mercy of the Bears. Whats throwing a wrench in this hole trade #1 scenario is, Maye and Daniels. If the Bears trade down it would be with Washington or New England, so they could at least consider Maye and Daniels as alternatives... and thats only if they think they HAVE to go QB. Sticking with Fields, they could land Harrison Jr and make a trade to get Maye or Daniels. Then they have a #9 left in the barrel. How sweet would that be?
