The other thing is that Ridley is a proven receiver at the NFL level, any receiver that you draft might not be good at this level. Talent in college doesn’t always transfer to the NFL. With the exception of Harrison Jr. there aren’t any sure things in the draft.
BTW... The 2024 NFL Combine begins on Feb. 29 and runs through March 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Basically... Its the "Legal Tampering" thing.
LOL, it’s actually the unofficial illegal tampering, but no one will rat you out period. The legal tampering is a little over a week later, a few days before the official league year opens… but it’s still a fun time, we’ll start hearing the rumors!
Nice post and i agree the calculation is far trickier from the Jaguars perspective. Its a pretty unique and fascinating situation really. Strictly speaking Ridley shouldn't be anywhere near top10 money, incentivised or not. His past creates the question of reliability. He turns 30 next season. He ranked 25th in yards last season. For a return season it was good, there's nothing to say give him top10 money imo, especially when you factor you're losing your 2nd round pick as well in this. Hell he'd do well to crack top20 money if it was me. One thing that complicates this argument is that there's a realistic scenario where Ridley is considered the top WR in FA this year. Or at least a coin flip with Hollywood Brown. Higgins, Evans and Pitman could all be retained, if that happens then keeping Ridley's value suppressed will be very hard for the Jags. But as you touched on, Christian Kirk is also in the chat. Kirk is currently getting very solidly overpaid by the Jags and because his contract is poorly structured he's going keep getting overpaid cos it'll be very hard to cut him. One of the reasons this matters is cos imo the Jags don't have a #1 WR right now. Kirk may be paid like one, but a guy who's never cracked 1,200yards and has one 1,000yard season in 6years is no #1 to me. And neither is Ridley based on last years numbers. The Jags could still pay him like a #1, but they'd be basing a sizeable amount on hope if they did. And if they wind up paying a combined $36-40mil to Kirk & Ridley next season....well that seems risky in terms of ROI. Wouldn't shock me at all if the Jags took a WR in Round 1, and you mentioned Thomas Jr.....im not the draft expert on this site but he may not seem like a reach at 17 when the time comes. Lets see what he does in Indy. This whole situation will be a very interesting one to see unfold whatever happens.
My first mock of the offseason is finished. Would love to hear some thoughts. CHI - Caleb Williams, QB, USC WAS - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU NE - Drake Maye, QB, UNC ARZ - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio St. LAC - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame NYG - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU TEN - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St. ATL - Jared Verse, EDGE, FSU CHI - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington NYJ - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia MIN - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama DEN - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama LV - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA NO - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo IND - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa SEA - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan JAC - Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois CIN - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St. LAR - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson PIT - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon MIA - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama PHI - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St. HOU - Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas DAL - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU GB - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke TB - Kamren Kitchens, S, Miami (FL) ARZ - Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington BUF - Keon Coleman, WR, Florida St. DET - Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington BAL - Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri SF - Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma KC - Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
@StlCrtn Outside of Jared Verse, I think a lot of mock analysts are going to have confidence in the players you have in the top 12. They might have them in some different spots, but that is going to be similar to what we see from a lot of that crowd, until the combine hits.
Some quick random thoughts I have noted from my own work: I think the absolute high-water mark for Penix is Denver, and that's with a trade down in the first. He's the type of neck up passer that Payton may like for his offense. J.J. McCarthy could go as early as ATL and, at this moment, I don't think he makes it out of the top 12. I believe Jayden Daniels going #2 overall is starting to become a stronger bet than Drake Maye. If someone jumps ARI for Harrison, then EDGE likely becomes the pick at #4. Harbaugh had much greater success with drafting defense rather than offense when he was with the 49ers, and considering the Chargers need at CB the possibility of one going in the top 5 greatly increases. Brock Bowers in the top 10 doesn't feel like a strong bet at the moment. I don't have a strong feeling yet on a team making a trade down in the top 10, outside of the possibilities of NE and ARI, based on a player they covet being taken ahead of them. Denver feels like the first team down the board that I keep coming back to as a strong likelihood for a trade down. The team near the bottom that feels like a strong candidate to try and move up a couple spots to secure a target is DET. They have an extra 3rd, a very young roster and a chance to go back to the NFC championship.
I still havnt a clue as to what the Bears do at #1 and thats making this all very interesting from the very git-go. Some are looking at Williams being a lock for Chicago at #1, but do you guys see a possible package being offered to them that may make them change their mind? If it plays out as you posted @StlCrtn the Bears would be really off and running with Williams and Odunze. Bears sitting pretty, but they have some real important decisions to make with Fields involved also.
Chargers need a clear-cut TE1, maybe they go after Brock Bowers. He'd be a fine target for Herbert and with his speed and size he could also help with the run game outside.
I'd be really surprised if Harbaugh, who has a franchise QB in place, doesn't get the best offensive lineman available to protect him / propel the running game. Maybe he's got some "smartest man in the room" plan for how to fix the OL otherwise, but I'd be incredibly concerned and surprised if it doesn't get serious attention in draft / free agency.
On the Chargers, while beefing up the OL is an option, and Harbaugh is known to appreciate the running game, they strike me as one of those teams whose need isn’t quite as dire as some might suggest. They’re currently bottom 5 in cap space, so big splashes in FA aren’t likely. They have a franchise LT in Rashawn Slater, possibly two quality Guards in Zion Johnson and Jamaree Salyer, and though he’s getting longer in the tooth (will be barely 33 week 1), a veteran C in Corey Linsley (played only 3 games last season). It’s a good OL draft. I could see searching for an RT improvement or quality depth in round 3-4. I’m still a big believer that a generational TE prospect or an exceptionally good WR could easily be the choice at 5 overall for the new Head Coach. They can save $20M by cutting Mike Williams. So replacing him with a Nabers/MHJ/Odunze is a possibility while working the cap. They call TE a security blanket, and even though I’m not a huge metrics guy, I assure you, any metric you can find paints Bowers as a franchise altering player. So I’m not ruling that out, despite top-10 TEs not being en vogue. Harbaugh’s teams have in fact always featured high level TE production built off the run game and bootlegs. To Tim’s point, CB is also going to be quite high on their needs list. So it’s a spot they could look if they want to lock up their favorite option and come back later in a deep WR/OL class. They play Mahomes 2x/year after all. Could also gain picks moving back (I remember the 49ers doing this in the Harbaugh era), and then take a great CB between 10-15 while adding cheapish picks to the cupboard. On the Daniels/Maye point; it’s one of the more interesting storylines I can remember in recent times. Going strictly on 2023 tape I myself might even prefer Daniels to Maye. But since I have Devy league trade decisions to make (I own Maye) I have put in LOTS of research. And while the draftnik community as a whole appears to be more split than 2 months ago, the guys I trust the most, working for MAJOR sites and with a longer track record, are still acting as though Maye is clearly above Daniels as a prospect, citing largely the age difference and questions about Daniels leaving ASU as the major reasons the gap is still larger than the internet noise is making it seem. It’s calmed my nerves anyways about owning Maye and wanting him to be a franchise changer (for fantasy as well as real life).
Williams must be the big fav at this point. The only thing that gets them off him imo is if the interviews/background blah blahs go really badly. With the importance of the position now if you think he's the guy i dont know how you trade out of it, even if some team comes at you with a Ricky Williams type proposal. The bigger the offer the stronger the confirmation of the player's enormous upside. Totally get this thought process, but the thing is the Chargers already have a really good LT. Like top3-5 player on the team probably. So perhaps a RT at #5? There has been a developing acceptance of drafting RTs higher and higher, Penei Sewell must've gone around #5. The Chargers have multiple OL holes to fill and have GOT to get better at moving people off the ball in the run game G to G, but these aren't problems you address with that pick. The Chargers also have one of the worst cap situations in the league so whatever they do most of it will need to happen in the draft. Tim mentioned top10 trade down candidates depending on how the draft plays out in front of them. I would suggest the Chargers as a dark horse for this if a top3 QB is still there when they pick. Assuming they didnt just pick a Tackle, by #5 you are starting to come into range for those teams at 11, 12, 13 with QB needs(at time of writing). You are talking multiple extra picks and likely still landing a Bowers(?), not bad. Or even a trade down inside the top 10 of some kind that netted extra capital but kept them in range of a T.
Yeah, I said that without knowing enough about their offensive line. Shows you how much the talking heads fill in the gaps on things that you don't pay enough attention to. I'm officially guilty of that, here. I blame my family.
Lance Zerlein’s prospect rankings are out. I’ve always liked checking these out. 2024 NFL Draft | NFL Draft News, Video & Photos | NFL.com
I miss some of the other guys they’ve had in past. I respect the work, but over a couple seasons I just don’t agree with Zuerlein enough.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is widely regarded as the top wide receiver in this year’s draft and it would come as no surprise if he’s the first non-quarterback off the board in April, but he won’t be doing anything on the field at the Scouting Combine to bolster that case. Albert Breer of SI.com reports that Harrison will meet with teams in Indianapolis this week, but that he will not run the 40-yard-dash, do the three-cone drill or do any of the other on-field testing that other draft prospects will do. _______ ________________ USC’s Caleb Williams and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are not planning to throw at the Scouting Combine, and that may give the next tier of quarterbacks an opportunity to get more eyes on them. Three of the other top quarterbacks, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, all plan to throw in Indianapolis, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Penix, Nix and McCarthy all have their supporters who think they belong in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, but also all have their detractors who think they’re firmly in Day Two territory. Quarterbacks will do their on-field work on Saturday. Williams and Daniels will be spectators while Penix, Nix and McCarthy hope they can steal the show.
I think this is the biggest question mark of all... IF YOU THINK HE'S THE GUY..... We are forgetting about the, what if they aren't convinced he's the guy? I think teams will want to know Fields availability prior to free agency. If he is available, I think he is the second most sought after veteran behind Kirk Cousins, who most likely stays in Minnesota. I think Fields would have a lot more interest from teams. He still has two full seasons, before his first consequential contract hits.. even then he could be an affordable franchise tag option for a 3rd year. I think the rumor mill will either be rampant on where he is getting traded within the next 6 days, or everyone might want to start thinking about what team will be moving up to #1 overall for Williams. There WILL BE a GM that covets Williams. That might not be Poles. Ryan Poles is entering his 3rd year as GM... and has had the #1 overall pick 2 years running. I think he probably learned a little at the combine last year. My biggest question is... Does Ryan Poles have the same confidence in Fields as most of his teammates seem to? I don't think he would ever let player(s) influence his decision, but they sure as hell have been trying to get him back in 2024. I can definitely see a scenario where Poles has that same confidence in him. Last year, I think both of the top two QB candidates were better candidates than Williams, yet Poles traded away that pick in favor of Fields. What has drastically changed in 2024 that would make this scenario much different than last year? Poles could be gone as early as 2025 if the team doesn't produce. Now, Fields improved the team from 3-13 to 7-10. 2022, they took a step back with inconsistent receiver play, despite Fields improving his accuracy. 2023, they took a pretty major step forward with DJ Moore. I could see the Bears making another drastic step forward by trading back to #3 overall with the Patriots, gaining #3, 2024 2nd round pick (remember the Bears have the #1 and #9 overall, but do not currently own a 2nd round pick) and 2025 first round pick. THIS could end up netting the Bears: #3 Marvin Harrison Jr. (#1 WR, possibly overall player in the 2024 draft) #9 Laiatu Latu (consensus #1 rusher in the 2024 draft) #34 Jackson Powers-Johnson (the #1 center and possibly the best interior lineman in the 2024 draft) 2025.. with a new rookie QB, it isn't out of the question that the Patriots would finish dead last in 2024, giving the Bears the #1 overall pick in an unprecedented 3 years in a row ending a season. With the players they could add to the mix in 2024, they would finally be able to answer the Fields question once and for all, barring major injuries. Does anyone think drafting a QB #1 overall will propel the Patriots with a new HC into a much better position than 2023? Personally, I don't. I think there will be growing pains and that pick in 2025 could be as valuable as the Panthers pick in 2023. What if... Poles was able to start a trend of trading the #1 overall pick to a team likely to give them back the #1 overall pick the following year for a few years straight? Just think about the possibilities of growing that roster with draft capital. It's money ball at it's finest.
On the subject of Justin Fields... I read this on PFT... DJ Moore: None of the QB prospects compare to Justin Fields right now The Bears have a decision to make. Do they use the No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback or do they trade it or use it to build around Justin Fields? Bears wide receiver DJ Moore has been consistent in his take on what he wants the team to do: Pass on Caleb Williams and all the other quarterback prospects. “I still don’t think they compare to Justin right now,” Moore told NFL Media on Monday. Moore is Fields’ biggest supporter. He arrived in Chicago last year after the Panthers traded him to the Bears in the package that delivered the No. 1 overall pick to Carolina. The Panthers used the choice on Bryce Young. Moore set career bests with 96 receptions for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. “The relationship jelled real well from the beginning,” Moore said.” Since I got traded, he was in contact and we started throwing together, so it made the transition into games and everything easy.” Moore began his career in Carolina with Cam Newton as his quarterback before the Panthers went through Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Newton again. Scouting quarterbacks remains an inexact science. C.J. Stroud, the second overall pick in 2023, outplayed Young last season in earning offensive rookie of the year honors. Fields has shown Moore enough for the wideout to believe Fields is a franchise quarterback. So, he hopes the Bears give Fields another weapon with the first or ninth pick instead of replacing Fields with an unproven rookie. “I want to say, yeah, we could add another receiver,” Moore said. “They got some real talented ones [in the draft]. I know Marvin [Harrison Jr.], so that’d be a choice of mine. But any of those guys that are the big names, I’ve seen and really liked.”
