Looking Forward to the 2021 AFC North

You don't see the irony in all that? Yes, you've said you don't believe in debating careers after only 3 seasons, BUT you've also acknowledge that in your opinion Baker is ascending and Lamar is descending thanks to 2020. 3 years makes it silly to say who has been a better passer but one year is enough to determine who's trending up vs down. 3 years isn't enough to say who's better, but it's enough to say who you'd rather have, which is basically your way of saying who you think is, or will be, better and thus.....well, you get my point here

 

Which is probably why Cleveland had the most offensive yards of anyone in the AFC North in 2020, despite it being their first year in the system. My expectations are they improve on that in 2021. With the defensive upgrades, I would expect the AFC North opponents to go down as well, since they feasted on the Browns defense last year. This team had to score 30 points a game to stay ahead of opponents, I'm hoping that isn't the case in 2021.

 

Which is probably why Cleveland had the most offensive yards of anyone in the AFC North in 2020, despite it being their first year in the system. My expectations are they improve on that in 2021. With the defensive upgrades, I would expect the AFC North opponents to go down as well, since they feasted on the Browns defense last year. This team had to score 30 points a game to stay ahead of opponents, I'm hoping that isn't the case in 2021.

Josh Allen averages 6.9 attempts per game
Lamar Jackson averages 13 attempts per game

Josh Allen is definitely a scrambling QB... The average QB has closer to 3 attempts per game, if I were to guess.

Baker has 2.6...
Ben has 2.1...

 

I'm not debating over who is the better "passer", it cannot be backed up by numbers at this point, when everyone debating is cherry picking the numbers they are using.

What I do know is in year 3 Baker has had his best season to date, despite being in his 4th system, Lamar has gotten worse, despite being in the same season for 3 years... I don't know what else to tell you.

 

I’m kinda surprised with this, SAS.

If he rolls at what his normal per game average would indicate, shouldn’t the additional contest put him over?

 

Wellllll, Lamar "got worse" because the year before was an MVP season for him. A unanimous MVP season. I just checked every MVP from 2000 to the present, they all got worse after their MVP season except Brady (who was robbed at least once imo) and Peyton (who won back to back years twice). Mahomes, Rodgers x2, Peterson, Warner, Newton, Ryan, Alexander, Faulk, Gannon, and Jackson all had a worse year after their MVP seasons. It's a fairly normal thing. But a worse year doesn't automatically mean a bad year does it?

64.4%, 26 TDs, 9 INTs, 7.3 ypa, 99.3 rating
62.8%, 26 TDs, 8 INTs, 7.3 ypa, 95.9 rating

The top guy getting worse matches the bottom guy's best season to date. Even though the offenses around them are literally at opposite ends of NFL rankings. Now that says a lot

Anyway, I'll pick back up on any post I missed tomorrow.

 

Still hoping they score 30+ points a game. Just adding the expectation that defense holds to less than 20 points.

 

You're wasting energy, pal.

My advice: hit the block button and never look back. It's so liberating.

 

The banter doesn't bother me like it used to. I can turn it on and off now. I like reading the different points of view too much to block anyone.

 

Case Keenum will pick up those garbage time stats as Baker should be sitting the fourth quarter of most games in 2021.

 

Different points don't bother me... even the unsettling personal obsession over me doesn't offend. (to wit: #dlinebass isn't blocked). It's the unrelenting name calling and tear downs. I don't allow that sort of negativity in my life.

 

For a more thorough explanation...

I'm looking at Baker's second half of 2020 as the baseline for his 2021 numbers. This was after he got some time in Stefanski's system, they made adjustments after their BYE week (to a man, every offensive player has talked about their adjustments after the BYE and credited them with their improvements as an offense). Baker's numbers:

168 of 263 (63.9%), 2,049 yards, 11 TDs, 1 INT, 100.1 rating

Annualized over 16 games (I guess we have 17 now)...

357 of 559, 4,354 yards, 24 TD, 2 INT

HOWEVER... too many times in 2020 the offense built a tremendous lead (Baker did a majority of his damage as a passer in first and second quarters) only to have the defense let teams back in where they either were clinging to a lead or actually scrambling to get back into the game. All jokes aside, I do expect Case Keenum to play some seriously meaningful snaps in the fourth of multiple games because the defense doesn't totally collapse. Or, the two-headed running back monster just eats up yards and clock with Baker only throwing as needed.

 

I'm not sure that's how Stefanski rolls... I think you will see Baker's numbers increase in 2021...if fact that's my prediction

 

I agree, but likely for different reasons.

I see the yardage uptick as a byproduct of the extra game. There’s also the potential for a TD increase for the same reason.

The real gauge for Mayfield will be based on whether or not he keeps the interception totals down and becomes a better passer under pressure, which would be a chicken/egg or hand and hand kind of thing.

 

Actually, I think we are on the same page. I see the increase in numbers due to the extra game as well. I don't think Baker will suddenly become Payton Manning and the Browns abandon the run game. What I do see is them maintaining the status quo and the extra game elevating his numbers.

What I was disagreeing to above is his numbers declining due to him coming out of games in the 4th quarter.

 

The massive improvement on our defense should in theory help the offense. More stops by the defense = More drives for the offense. Baker didn't even have an offseason last year, and we lost our main WR early. I definitely see his numbers improving in year number two with Stefanski, assuming the main weapons stay healthy. I love how the run sets up the pass in this offense. As Baker gets more familiar with all the nuances and wrinkles that Stefanski likes to throw in, he's only going to get better. The addition of Schwartz will effect how defenses have to play, and open things up even more. IMO 4500 yards and 35 TD's is not out of the question, and Mayfield might even take it north of that. If I could invest in a QB's stock, Baker would be high on the list.

 

BREAKING: Pittsburgh plans to kill Najee Harris, Year 1.

 

I'm not against Baker throwing 4,000 or 4,500 or even 5,000 yards... I just don't think it's likely as you note here, @IrishDawg42. Stefanski isn't going to completely abandon the running game. Last season, it was almost perfectly 50/50 split between pass and rush attempts (501 versus 495). I'd like to see more of that with Baker's improvements coming in other areas of the game than yardage totals.

League average for team passing was 240.2 YPG last season... over 17 games that's 4,083 yards. You figure 16 guys have to be below that number.

 

He was at one point.

 

I'll try.