Looking Forward to the 2021 AFC North

Adds absolutely nothing to the topic of which QB is a better passer, then cries and puts me on block. I love it. I hit the nail on the head when I said prepubescent. "Me mad at Ravens poster so me insult Ravens QB again. I show him" lolol

 

I'm fine opening that can of worms, if it is one. I honestly don't have an issue admitting Lamar's shortcomings. Notice I've mostly avoided playoff football discussions .

In terms of the deep ball, I also did a quick google search. The articles seem to be....inconsistent.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports...0201007-avqygq3xq5bvzj2ujkridoxzvi-story.html

That article directly calls him an elite passer (thank you google) that's still working on his deep ball. In fact, it says on short passes he's better than Rodgers and on intermediate passes he's better than Wilson. Not my words, it's theirs. This article is from 10/20

This next article has Lamar at 24 of 47 on deep passes (classified as passes at 21 yards or more. He ranks 12th which is not bad, although Baker is ranked higher. This article is from 5/20

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/2019-20-deep-ball-project

Next we have a Broncos forum article, but it pulls info from profootball reference about on target throws (i'll go there directly myself at the end). It excludes throwaways and spikes. And seems to focus on the accuracy of the ball in the air vs whether it was caught (drops do unfairly hurt a QBs stats after all). Here they have Lamar as being more "on target" on a higher percentage of his throws than Baker in both 2019 and 2020. This is from 02/21 and the most recent article I've come across so far.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2021/2/11/22274403/throwing-deep-accuracy-nfl

An article from Pro Football Focus also has Lamar above Baker. This article is from 05/20

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-all-32-nfl-quarterbacks-deep-passing

Finally, I went to profootball reference and checked their numbers myself. They have Lamar at 76% on target with all his throws and Baker at 70% in 2019. In 2020, they have Lamar at 75.3% and Baker at 74.8%.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing_advanced.htm

If you use the above link, make sure to click on the "accuracy" tab then search out each player.

So far none of the article paint the picture of Lamar being a bad passer. And most have him above Baker in accuracy overall, although one does have Baker higher on deep ball throws.

This part is not me comparing him to annoying, but I think a huge reason many continue to think Lamar isn't but so accurate is because analyst keep repeating the same words. If you watch sports shows, they all tend to parrot the same words of "can he improve as a passer". It's a fair question for him, and anybody really, but for whatever reason this and the memory of all the pre-draft talk on him leads to people thinking he's not a good passer. There are 8 QBs in NFL history with 2 or more perfect passer ratings in their entire careers. Lamar had 2 in his first season as a starter. No, he's not Mahomes or Rodgers, etc, but you don't accomplish this by being anything short a good passer. Unfortunately for him, people stick to the negative perception

 

That comment came out of frustration, as I'm sure you are aware.

Not even close...sorry. Lamar has a special skill set, but throwing the football is not his strength.

Mayfield is going to put all the doubters to rest in 2021...Bank on it.

 

Looking at the list of perfect games both Lamar and Ben didn't throw very many passes in their respective perfect games. The one thing I wonder is if Ben could have been better if he would have studied film like Peyton Manning did? Ben had some games that were just better than most other QBs ever had in their career. He couldn't play great week in and week out. Lamar was running great in those perfect games too. But the lowest amount of passes I remember was Ben being 9-11 for 218 yards and 2TD.

 

Perfect games? Is this MLB? wth are you talking about?

JFTR: You are trying a bit too hard to interject Roethlisberger into this conversation.....

 

The conversation was about AFCN QBs. I would have a hard time picking between Mayfield and Jackson , because I don't like either of them for the Steelers. Joe Burrows is the only QB I would take from the AFCN to replace Ben. I wouldn't want Baker at all and I don't like the guy who's always carrying a loaf of bread .

 

Perfect passer rating games that they had. Baker hasn't baked any of those.

 

I wouldn't say Lamar ran great in both games. The first one he had 3 total runs for 6 total yards.

In terms of the list, there were definitely far more QBs than I expected. But only 8 have done it two or more times. I will also admit I was surprised Ben ties Peyton for most ever at 4 games. If I told people to guess who was at the top, I doubt any non Steelers fans would say Ben. He's been pretty good the last 10ish years, no matter how much that sucks to admit

 

To tell you the truth I forgot about this record because in reality it doesn’t mean shit. The criteria is to have at least 10 attempts with a 77% complete 12.5 yards per attempt and 2 + TDs

 

Definitive Rankings

1 - Baker Mayfield
2 - Joe Burrow
3 - Jarvis Landry
4 - Case Keenum
5 - Ben Roethlisberger

 

This was fun to watch.

 

Good stuff.

 

Had some time yesterday and pulled this together.



It's important to understand this is Team Offense data. I didn't have the time or inclination to drill down and segregate the data by how many snaps each QB had for these three seasons. But it's pretty safe to assume that;

• Baker Mayfield had the vast majority in 2018 and virtually 100% of them in 2019 and 2020.
• Ben Roethlisberger had virtually all of them in 2018 and 2020. (Mason Rudolph had the vast majority in 2019.)
• Andy Dalton had the vast majority in 2018 and 2019 with Joe Burrow at around 50% in 2020.
• Lamar Jackson had about 50% (+/-) in 2018 and virtually all of them in 2019 and 2020.

 

Also . . .

There have been a couple of posts about how a QB fared against top 5 or 10 defenses. In a nutshell - this doesn't mean shit. Let me remind you that (with the exception of 2 games a year) these four teams all play the same opponents every year. If you're playing the 1st place finishers in these two games, and they happen to have a top 5 or 10 defense, that's the price you pay for finishing 1st in the AFCN.

 

FYI... today is the NFL's big "schedule release" day. I think the hype is a bit overblown since we all know who and where teams are playing. The question will simply become who gets the prime time games, who gets little rest, etc. I'll try to dig it up, but by and large, the cadence of games played doesn't really seem to impact teams as much as the analysts and experts predict it will.

With that in mind, I thought it'd be fun to look (pre-release) at the AFC North teams' schedules (the who and where) and do some predictions.

Two more notes:

1. While I'm certainly rejoicing in the "Steelers being buried, write the epitaph" narratives out there, I also suspect that's when they're most dangerous. I wholly believe the AFC North will come down to the Steelers and Browns this year, not the Ravens (and certainly not the Bengals).
2. I'm assuming Aaron Rodgers suits up for Green Bay this season.

Baltimore Ravens
Bengals - W
Browns - L
Steelers - W
Chiefs - L
Chargers - L
Packers - L
Vikings - W
Colts - W
@Bears - L
@Bengals - W
@Browns - L
@Broncos - W
@Lions - W
@Dolphins - L
@Raiders - W
@Steelers - L
@Rams - W

Final: 9-8

Cincinnati Bengals
Ravens - L
Browns - L
Steelers - L
Chiefs - L
Chargers - L
Packers - L
Vikings - W
Jaguars - W
49ers - L
@Ravens - L
@Browns - L
@Steelers - L
@Bears - L
@Bronocs - W
@Lions - W
@Jets - W
@Raiders - L

Final: 5-12

Cleveland Browns
Bengals - W
Ravens - W
Steelers - W
Broncos - W
Raiders - W
Bears - W
Lions - W
Texans - W
Cardinals - W
@Packers - L
@Chiefs - L
@Chargers - L
@Vikings - W
@Patriots - W
@Bengals - W
@Ravens - W
@Steelers - L

Final: 13-4

Pittsburgh Steelers
Bengals - W
Ravens - W
Browns - W
Broncos - W
Raiders - W
Bears - W
Lions - W
Titans - L
Seahawks - L
@Bengals - W
@Ravens - L
@Browns - L
@Bills - L
@Packers - W
@Chiefs - L
@Chargers - W
@Vikings - W

Final: 11-6

First place: Cleveland (13-4) *Division Champ
Second place: Pittsburgh (11-6) **Wildcard
Third Place: Baltimore (9-8)
Last Place: Cincinnati (5-12)

 

Week One Opponents according to CBS

Browns at Chiefs
Steelers at Bills
Ravens at Raiders
Bengals vs Vikings

Looks like they are trying to get a feel for the playoff contenders early

 

Well, I was hoping we'd get the Thursday night NFL opener, but I was right about this match-up being our opener.

FTR: Looks like season opener will be Dal/TB

 

WTF? That’s the worst prime time opening weekend you could imagine. The Chiefs vs Browns should have been at night and the bills vs Steelers too.
Dallas has no business being on the opening Thursday game. The NFL screwed the pooch on this one