Looking Forward to the 2019 AFC North

I don't disagree, but that's out of date. Here's your newest:

And that still includes the eight Hue games.

 

This is incorrect.

Baker's starting numbers translated to a 16 game season -
31 TDs / 16 INTs / 4166 YDs

That's removing the one half against the Jets.

Not trying to derail you or contradict your opinion. It's just something I researched yesterday for a question that was posed to me for the podcast.

 

I was talking the post-Hue numbers:

If there's truth to the rumors that Kitchens' position with the team is safe (regardless of head coach), then I think it's fair to take Baker's sample with Kitchens instead of Haley/Kitchens. Whatever the reason, since "The Switch", the team (and in particular, Baker) have looked completely different.

 

You still have to factor in quality of opponent, regardless of head coaching/offensive coordinator change.

With that in mind, his sample against top 10 defenses in points against compared to bottom 5 defenses in the same category produces a wild swing.

I understand your point of view and the optimism with using favorable stats, but if you take quality of opponent into account it does paint a vividly different picture.

If he smashes Cincy again and doesn't trend in reverse against the Ravens (depending on if Baltimore still has something to play for in week 17) then pushing the numbers more towards your 'switch' scale and away from the total body of work may project a clearer picture for year two.

If he has middling numbers against Cincy and puts up similar numbers against the Ravens that he has against other top 10 points against defenses then I think it's more fair to project his numbers off of his full starting resume.

Of course, that's before we see any of the changes in the off-season that may produce a markedly better cast of receiving weapons for Mayfield to work with.

That's just my opinion though. I'm not suggesting anyone change their mind based on it.

It's more for returning to at a later date and referencing.

 

Honestly, I just can't wait to see what he can do with a full off season with the offense. If his history repeats itself, he doesn't take time off. He will be working with these guys all off season...They could come back even better next year, all speculative obviously...

 

With the exception of a handful of games, all the AFC North teams are playing the same schedule.

Biggest difference for say, Roethlisberger, is he gets to play Cleveland's defense with is 30th against the pass in yards allowed and 6th in touchdowns allowed, versus Baker who plays Pittsburgh's defense which is 13th against the pass in yards allowed and 21st in touchdowns allowed.

Roethsliberger: 47 of 77 (61.0%), 592 yards, 3 TD, 4 INT, 76.3 QB rating (2 games)
Mayfield: 22 of 36 (61.1%), 180 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 80.8 QB rating (1 game)

 

^^^^^
More on this...

Ben versus the AFC North:

134 of 217 (61.8%), 1,505 yards (301.0 YPG), 7 TD (3.2%), 5 INT (2.3%), 83.6 QB rating

Baker versus the AFC North:

66 of 105 (62.9%), 780 yards (260.0 YPG), 7 TD (6.7%), 2 INT (1.9%), 99.7 QB rating

One's a 15-year veteran currently enjoying the greatest statistical season of his career. The other is a rookie who wasn't given a snap with the ones all offseason, didn't start until Week 4, and who's team fired their head coach and offensive coordinator eight games into the season.

 

Agreed, but I was referencing the idea that Baker's numbers over the 6 game stretch after Hue's departure can be interpreted many ways dependent on which avenue you want to pursue.

 

So even if you disagree with your own source and put the Browns on top it's a little over the top to say "and it's not close", right?

 

Dontrell Hilliard has 8 catches and 1 rushing attempt. Villanueva and Nix are pro-bowlers.

 

What if hue had been fired and the new coach was sold on another QB other than Baker?

 

FWIW, Hue Jackson didn't want Baker. Lets not forget that. Hue mentioned it several times that Baker would NOT have been his choice, when he went on his two week sports talk show campaign trying to put blame on everybody but himself for all the losing. HJ would have preferred one of the bigger, more prototypically sized prospects...Thankfully, Dorsey didn't care about Hue's opinion, and for that matter, I don't think any other coach could have swayed JD away from Mayfield either...John said he had his mind made up months before the draft which QB was his guy...

 

Doesnt mean a new coach wouldnt have changed his mind.

 

And here is why its more probable than you might think. Almost everybody thought Hue was a lame di k coach this season. Very liekely that Dorsey thought this so how much imput does a lame duck coach have? Most likely zero but a new coach especially one hired by Dorsey is going to have more say in who you draft.

 

lol! How long do ya wanna play this, hypothetical that didn't happen, out? Sounds to me like you are wishing someone had talked Dorsey out of selecting Mayfield...

 

I could care less that you all took Baker im just pointing out had browns fans got their wish and hue was gone after last season that you may not have the all ready in the hall of fame (at least by browns fans) mayfield.

 

lol! Yep, sounds like it...Whatever you say.

Yeah, yer makin some really solid points here...FTR, it's Mayfield. With a capital M.

Feel free to fantasize all you want about what "might have been" had the Browns not ended up with Baker Mayfield. If you wanna believe some supercoach could have strolled into Berea and changed Dorsey's mind about who he was taking at #1, be my guest...What do I care? This is amusing...

 

To Tim's point
In bakers 12 games 7 of the 12 teams he faced ranked 20th or worse in yards allowed (9 ranked in the bottom half of the league)
He also faced 8 teams that rank 20th or lower in passing tds allowed (10 ranked in the bottom half of the league)

Baker had an extremly easy schedule this season

 

The Browns catch all the breaks. It's ridiculous. The NFL has been coddling us for years. It's just not fair to the other teams, plain and simple....

 

I don't have a problem with the order. Maybe just being technical here, but if listing top WR's for Cincy, i'd put Tyler Boyd ahead of John Ross....And for Ravens I'd have John Brown ahead of Snead...No argument with how you have teams slotted though.