Looking Forward to the 2019 AFC North

I think we would have to define "good" but sure they matter. Different people may choose to grade it differently and I've acknowledged that. I personally would put more weight on impact players. Doesn't mean the mid-rounders who contribute don't count but those aren't the guys you win meaningful football games with IMO.

I don't really want to derail this thread talking about the Ravens' drafts so why don't we try a different exercise that everyone can participate in? Look at the Ravens' roster (I use Ourlads because if tells you how they were acquired). I'll look at the Steelers and Bengals, the Browns fans can look at the Browns roster. Then tell me among the starters and significant contributors how many in hindsight should have been drafted higher than where they were taken? Obviously, this is subjective to a degree but we should all try and keep in open mind.

Steelers Higher

Antonio Brown (6th round)
Juju Smith-Schuster (2nd round)
David DeCastro (#24)
Alejandro Villanueva (undrafted)
Ramon Foster (undrafted)
Ben Roethlisberger (#11)
James Conner (3rd round)
Stephon Tuitt (2nd round)
Vince Williams (6th round)
T.J. Watt (#30)
Mike Hilton (undrafted)
Matt Feiler (undrafted)
Jesse James (5th round)

Guys from 2018 that I believe will join this list

James Washington (2nd round)
Mason Rudolph (3rd round)
Chukwuma Okorafora (3rd round)
Jaylen Samues (5th round)

 

I'm kind of surprised you don't have DeCastro on that list. Probably should have went in the top 16 picks in that draft.

 

I didn't predict records, per se, but I did have Baltimore finishing second in the division!

That's totally fair... I really think highly of your guys' corner group as well. In my rating, the interceptions put the Browns over. I realize this includes safeties as well, but here's the two teams' passer ratings allowed:

CLE: 62.8% comp., 6.6 YPA, 3.3 TD%, 2.9 INT%, 80.6 QB rating
BAL: 58.4% comp., 5.7 YPA, 3.6 TD%, 1.4 INT%, 80.7 QB rating

Overall, you can see they're both extremely close.

Also fair. Browns run defense can be a sieve at times. However, against some really good competition (and again, realizing this is run defense as a whole), the Browns limited the Saints (8th best) to 62 yards, the Broncos (11th best) to 32 yards, and the Panthers (3rd best) to 96 yards.

I'll hear that argument as well. Njoku has better individual stats than the other guys but does see more targets. However, of those three (we can all agree Cincinnati is trash, right?), the Browns have the fewest overall attempts, so it gets back into a volume argument.

PIT: 107 targets, 81 receptions (75.7% catch rate), 1,015 yards, 6 TD
CLE: 98 targets, 64 receptions (65.3% catch rate), 696 yards, 6 TD
BAL: 95 targets, 65 receptions (68.4% catch rate), 756 yards, 3 TD

Percentage Market Share of the Team:

PIT: 18.4% of targets, 20.5% of receptions, 22.5% of yards, 19.4% of touchdowns
CLE: 20.2% of targets, 21.2% of receptions, 21.4% of yards, 26.1% of touchdowns
BAL: 19.2% of targets, 20.8% of receptions, 22.7% of yards, 17.6% of touchdowns

When you break it down by market share, the Browns TE group outpaces the other and within that group, it'd led by Njoku, who's market share among Cleveland tight ends is: 79.6% targets, 78.1% receptions, 61.2% yards, 50.0% (best among all individuals versus group).

And yes, I'm projecting into 2019 that he gets even better since he was much more raw than the other players being compared here, even against Mark Andrews (whom I really like) who's the same age and was a two year starter at Oklahoma - by comparison, Njoku wasn't even a full-time starter in college.

 

Artie is the offensive version of Limas Sweed. He can't get out of his own head. Juju could excel anywhere in my opinion. That was a bad miss at a position of serious need.

 

Not sure how I missed him.

 

Thanks for Perriman, by the way!

 

This is a negative, good buddy. Cleveland has the best offensive line in the division, it's not close, and the only reason I didn't give them the sweep was because our tackle situation is murky heading into 2019 if we don't re-sign Greg Robinson.

The Browns' 2018 is a tale of two seasons, and I agree... Todd Haley and Hue Jackson's first eight games had them looking like one of the worst offensive lines (and offenses) in the league. Since the switch (again, projecting since Hue and Todd won't be back), the Browns have the NFL's best offensive line, the two highest-graded guards, one of the highest centers (higher than anyone else in the AFCN) and they have those ratings in spite of the first eight games.

Their top players are all signed through 2019, have a promising rookie in the wings (Corbett) and can re-sign Robinson, add another veteran tackle if need be, and/or draft an offensive tackle.

 

p.s. Really wanted to add Rosy Nix to that list. Feel like someone should have drafted him.

 

To wit:

 

I genuinely don't think anyone's arguing this ranking... right?

 

Sorry, that portion wasn't meant to be directed at you. I saw people predicting 6-10 records or Baltimore last in the division. It seems like those prediction are mad yearly.

Can't complain. The lack of INTs really hurt the Ravens opposing QB rating. I am surprised about the TD% though. I wonder how much the rushing TDs allowed impact that.

First, yes we can agree that Cincinnati is trash.

For this, I'm curious about the first set. Of the 3, Cleveland has the lowest catch rate and, by quick eye test, the lowest yards per catch, but the highest TD %. Pittsburgh leads all groups in two of three and come 2nd in the third. So we should at least put them as #1

 

Perriman was a classic Harbaugh doghouse guy. Once you get in there it's hard to get out.

 

Browns Higher
Joel Bitonio (2nd round)
Myles Garrett (#1 overall)
Larry Ogunjobi (3rd round)
Joe Schobert (4th round)
Derrick Kindred (4th round)
Rashard Higgins (5th round)
Christian Kirksey (3rd round)
That's it...We have purged the roster and we only have Joel Bitonio and Duke Johnson as draft picks prior to 2016 left on the roster. They moved on from every other Browns draft pick.

Guys from 2018 that I believe will join this list

I have to joke and say Baker Mayfield (#1 overall) and Denzel Ward (#4 overall) because they are playing at or above the level they were drafted. Ward is a rookie pro bowler and Baker is playing like a 5 year vet. Even #1 overall picks don't play at the level he is playing at.
Antonio Callaway(4th round)
Nick Chubb (2nd round)
Genard Avery (5th round)

We have some other higher draft picks like Emmanuel Ogbah (2nd), and Duke Johnson (3rd) that are playing right at where they were drafted, so they are nice players on the roster.

 

Not sure I agree. A player can be talented and ruined by an organization imo. Are the Ravens that bad at drafting WRs and the Steelers that bad at drafting CBs, or is it how they are developed by the current clubs? As previously mentioned by, I think, Irish....even Perriman looks better outside of a Ravens uniform. He's not some world breaker, but the fact he's catching almost 65% of his targets is something no Ravens fan would have ever thought capable of him.

 

Using your source...

 

I don't think I had any score for Nix, but DeCastro has one of the highest totals we ever put together for an offensive lineman.

One of the reasons for that was he simply didn't have a hole in his game that was large enough to drag him down and level out his number. He's without question one of the most well rounded players I have ever researched on the offensive line.

 

Oh, BTW, if you are counting ALL Undrafted Free Agents, even if they were on another teams roster before you got them..

Then I will add:
Brienne Boddy-Calhoun (undrafted)
Dontrell Hilliard (undrafted) would make this list, because every time his number gets called he contributes, but barring injury, Chubb will bury him as far as a big contributor is concerned.

 

That was after week 12, the Browns have been the elite of the league in weeks 13, 14 and 15, which if they keep pace will easily move them ahead of the Steelers at year end...


Again, we are ahead of ourselves with two weeks left to play..But at the current week, the Browns have played themselves ahead of all others in the division.

 

I'd give them the top spot this season. James and McDonald are enjoying career seasons playing with a future Hall of Fame QB. I guess I don't necessarily believe in them to continue to be dominant and part of the position group's productivity has to come from Roethlisberger - on pace for 5,099 yards and 34 TD this season.

However, taking what we've seen from Baker since "The Switch", and projecting that over a full 16 games leaves you with:

4,251 yards, 35 TD, 13 INT - which if he hits those marks next season, and TE market share doesn't change, you're talking 908 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Roethlisberger is on pace for his best statistical season of his career, and he's projecting to finish 5,099 yards, 34 TD, and 17 INT. That's one TD behind Baker's pace and +4 INT ahead of him. The biggest difference, though, is the yardage (+848 favor for PIT, which is a full 53.0 YPG). Ben is on pace for 663 attempts versus Baker's 491.

A large part of the attempts and yardage is due to Pittsburgh being one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL (29th in attempts, 30th in yards). Whereas Cleveland is a Top 15 team (12th attempts, 13th yards) which is 'vulturing' some of Mayfield's production.