Looking Forward to the 2019 AFC North

The conversation started with Gordon, Bell, Gurley. Pretty sure Irish meant "elite" running backs.

 

"Elite" running backs that you're saying don't deserve big second contracts (based on your "release Gurley" statement - correct me if I'm wrong), so who the hell cares how long they're in the league - they're still not going to get paid, based on your preferences. And the point Irish was trying to make, as fallible as it is, was that those RB's would get huge second contracts.

 

Define "elite".

 

This part of the conversation may need it's own thread.

Finding two people that agree 100% on what defines 'elite' at any position is difficult.

 

Honestly, I wish there was a better word. Because I agree "elite" is so subjective. Probably should have said 3-down RBs, guys that can run inside and outside, catch the football and pass protect. Those guys usually stick around awhile and have the kind of longevity I think Irish was alluding to.

 

I'd assume this is pretty skewed by the sheer amount of late round picks or undrafted guys that bounce around a couple training camps and then go to work on their real estate license when that doesn't work.

 

The guy I talked to a few weekends ago was selling cars.

Edit: He was a former Southern Illinois CB, for what it's worth.

 

In order to be included in the NFLPA statistics, they would have had to make a team's 53 man roster at least once.

There were a couple of other categories I didn't include in my prior post because (at the time) I didn't see the relevance.

• Players with at least 1 Pro Bowl ............................... 11.7 years
• Players with at least 3 credited pension seasons ... 7.1 years

So, loosely put, "elite" players average 11.7 years and players that get a 2nd contract average 7.1 years.

To put the RB number in perspective (2.57 years), here are some other positions they listed;

• Kickers & Punters ....................... 4.87 years
• Quarterbacks .............................. 4.44 years
• Cornerbacks ................................ 2.94 years
• Wide Receiver .............................. 2.81 years

 

Wow. So not all that different than WRs and DBs. That changes my thoughts on the subject.

 

I think your revised definition (which I completely agree with) would give us maybe 1-2 guys in today's game.

Christian McCaffrey - 996 out of 1,058 (91.3%)
Saquon Barkley - who had 852 total snaps last season out of 1,027 (83.0%)
Ezekiel Elliott - 890 out of 1,076 (82.7%)

Feel free to keep me honest, but I didn't find another running back who hit over 80%. Some other guys...

Todd Gurley - 825 out of 1,100 (75.0%)
Melvin Gordon - 524 out of 995 (52.7%)
*Le'Veon Bell (2017) - 943 out of 1,106 (85.3%)

Given all those guys... I (personally) believe McCaffrey is an "elite" RB. I don't believe that about the other guys on that list. I do think Elliott is close - he's a true every down back and certainly produces, but he's playing behind a terrific offensive line and struggled to match DeMarco Murray's output while he was a member of the Cowboys, despite leading the NFL in rushing yards per game three consecutive seasons.

 

If you're using snap counts than that certainly limits the field but I was talking strictly skill set. Some of the guys falling short did so only because of injury. Other guys can probably fill all those roles but may just play for a coach that prefers to use multiple backs. Guys that come to mind that I believe are 3-down capable:

David Johnson
Joe Mixon
James Conner
Alvin Kamara
Kareem Hunt
LeSean McCoy
Mark Ingram
Dalvin Cook - Go Noles!!!!
Kerryon Johnson

Obviously there are varying degrees of talent there but if healthy I think those are all guys that will be in demand for a solid 7-9 years in this league.

 

Oh and of course Nick Chubb.... had to make you sweat a little.

 

Murray averaged 85.4 yards on the ground and 22.6 receiving....Elliott is at 101.2 and 30 and has 5 more touchdowns in 13 less games.

 

I thought 8-10 was high, but....damn! Thanks Lym.

I wonder how many ever see a second contract.

 

Still?

 

One other thing to speak to the decline of the running back in today's game is the total scrimmage yards - something I noticed during the digging earlier.

The top four guys (Barkley, Elliott, McCaffrey, and Gurley) are running backs, as you'd expect, but eight of the next 11 guys are wide receivers (and even a tight end) - all notching above (or just shy of) 1,400 combined scrimmage yards.

A decade ago, there were a nearly identical number of guys with 1,400 total scrimmage yards in the Top 15, but only three of them were non-running backs (Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, and Larry Fitzgerald - two HOF wide receivers and another ultra-productive guy).

A decade before that, again... nearly identical number of guys with 1,400 total scrimmage yards in the Top 15. One wide receiver, playing with a HOF quarterback (Antonio Freeman).

 

Also likely to happen...

• Odell Beckham Jr. going for 200 yards and 3 TDs in the first half of that that first match-up.

• Joe Haden cut 11/15.

 

I always liked Joe Haden, but I can't see him matching up with Odell.

Interesting facts SAS. Makes me think a little differently about my fantasy draft.

 

Damn, I need to find more time to get back to these boards. No idea such a small comment would spark a debate line that.

Thank you @beachbum for seeing through all the bullshit. If we are having a conversation about teams skipping a position in the first 3-4 rounds because of a 2 year contract vs 4 year for every other position...we are OBVIOUSLY talking about players that would be elite PROSPECTS at their position and considered first rounders... Not every average Joe ever drafted into the NFL and made a roster for a day or more.

We are talking about every RB ever taken in the first round...given a stipulation of a two year contract, THOSE players would have never sniffed the 2nd round, maybe even the 3rd.

It's hard enough gambling on which player will make your team championship worthy over the next 4 years...cut that time frame in half and his value is cut in half as well. In a seven round draft, half value would be a 3-4th round beginning. Then they would only have two years to prove they have what it takes to get a big 1st veteran contract. Very few achieve that value in two years of play.

That's all I'm saying.

 

Yes, you do.