Live4SportNW 2018 Dynasty League Draft

Fairly optimistic review. But I’m sure you recall our back-and-forth on Ballage.

 

That was a good draft for me to take some shots on guys that would need a year or two before they were ready to roll.

You may consider it optimistic, but it's grounded in reality -

Couple that with Drake's comments about less touches not being an issue so long as they are winning and I think the table is set for Ballage to become a big factor in Miami's offense.

He was a player that was going to need at least a season to grow into a role, but removing Gase from the equation is sure to expedite his learning curve.

 

Well I definitely agree on the “Gase sucks” front. Still personally not a huge believer in Ballage. But he’s in a decent situation going forward. So we’ll see.

Kind of amused by the coach quotes though. If I believed every positive quote from a coach of the player being touted I would have never given away Peyton Barber at the low price point I did. Anyways I’m just ribbing you in good fun. He’ll get his chance to prove me wrong.

 

There's certain quotes that you know are simply 'coach speak', then there are other quotes that strike a genuine tone because of how it relates to the situation.

I believe you were big on Kenyan Drake as well, correct?

 

Honestly I was kind of undecided on Drake. Liked him, but injury concerns plus hating Gase had me avoiding pursuing him in most fantasy formats.
Plus their OL was never really considered strong

 

Then it was Yeldon you liked?

I know it was one of the two, because we discussed similarities with Marlon Mack.

 

I did like Yeldon. Don’t remember the exact conversation.
Gallman maybe? Seems more like a guy I might have compared to Mack.
I did like Yeldon coming out. Figured maybe 3rd-4th round range. I’ve certainly been more confident about guys than him though.

 

2018 Recap:

1.12 Courtland Sutton
2.12 Hayden Hurst
4.3 Antonio Callaway
5.5 Justin Simmons
6.3 Chester Rogers
7.12 Patriots SPT
8.12 Daurice Fountain
9.1 Trey Edmunds
9.12 Jonathan Williams

I took two shots that didn’t pan out in the two Saints backup RBs (9.1/9.12) and for an emerging #2 Colts receiver (6.3/8.12)
Simmons looks to have been a great pick. He’s started many games for me and may continue to. I still have high hopes for #1 choice Sutton, and with Demaryius gone he’ll get his chance this year. Compares favorably to my choice of Arcega-Whiteside this year in that it’s a pick made with the future in mind.
Hurst had a tough rookie year, but was hurt through all of training camp and started slow. I by no means have given up hope, but every TE in Baltimore is a bit in limbo going forward. Callaway May have been a decent pick. But I’ve since loaded up on potential WRs and the Browns trading for OBJ signaled the end of Callaway’s run with the Trash-Talkers.

Likely not my best draft. But if Sutton emerges as a viable #2 I think it would have to be considered a success, between him and Justin Simmons.

 

In a dynasty league IDP draft with 12 teams and 10 rounds, if you hit on more than 50% (5 picks) you are abso-fucking-lutely killing it.

If you hit on 33% (3 picks) you did a better than average job.

If you hit on 2 you're probably right at the average.

But counting hits is tricky. Do you only count the ones that you manage to keep on your roster or do you count any pick that becomes a viable fantasy starter? DO you only count rookies or do you include vet FAs you draft? Because attrition is real when you have to make decisions to win games with injured and under-performing players.

 

Everything is debateable. I like your numbers overall. But as an example I had a draft where the only guy still with me is Jared Goff. BUT...I won a championship starting him 80-90% of the time. So is that draft below average, or above average?

Or the draft I just posted. If Sutton becomes a #2 for me is it above average? I hit on Sutton, Simmons, and started that DST all year. Everything is relative.
If your team is average and for whatever reason you’re picking 2nd overall should you do much better than the guys picking at 11/12?
Or is it still apples to apples?

 

I think you have to look what picks are giving your team starts. Obviously, the earlier picks are expected to be more valuable in terms of starting games and scoring points for your team, but a guy you draft in the 7th or later starting multiple games a year is always a HR imo. Say a guy like Nassir Adderly or David Moore end up being quality starters, it’s huge because getting a starter that late shouldn’t happen.

 

It's almost like someone said...

 

If you are hitting on 5 players (viable starters), regardless of pick selection in one of our drafts, you are most definitely killing it.

The number two is just a quick guess on my part as to what the average would be for getting decent starters in this league out of a draft, and that is based on the total of 24 players from a draft class becoming a player you may use for more than a couple weeks throughout the season.

It could easily be closer to 1.

 

I see it as moreso does the value of what you’ve gotten out the player match the draft position they were selected in.

For instance, Saquan Barkley is obviously meeting the expectations of being the #1 pick.
Corey Davis at 1(2) and Samje Perine at 1(8) have been disappointments to say the least so far (compared to who was drafted after)

 

So for me a draft is a success if I:

1) Get one high end starter
2) Get two guys worth starting even half the time
3) Get 3+ guys worth keeping on my roster longer than one year.

Some draft classes, like real life, will take 2-3 years to truly judge

 

There's also the consideration of what the long term value of that player is from both a standalone viewpoint, and from the aspect of how much they improve your own roster.

A player that I draft could end up simply being depth on someone's roster, but may play a solid role on mine in winning games.

 

lol

It's like the three of us are all saying the same thing, just standing on different sides of a two way mirror.

 

Haha. Yeah pretty much.

 

Like I said, it’s all debatable. But we all have the same goal of trying to score more points this year than we did last year. And there’s plenty of grey area in how to go about that