FT @ Steelers: Official Game Thread

Normal season or not the home team gets 3 points

The line dropped from 10 1/2 points to 8 1/2 after the Ravens game than to 6 1/2 before the game last night, I wouldn’t call that an overwhelming favorite when the line is dropping that much and that quickly

 

No, they don't.

That 3 points is the betting expression brought about by having a home field advantage. HFA relies heavily on fans. No fans = drastically reduced HFA. Taken as a combined whole, home teams have their worst win-loss records in nearly two decades. No doubt there's lots that goes into that....fans or lack of, are a big part, but point is there's no justification for giving teams a 3point head start this year.

Lines are set by bookies, Vegas for the most part and the purpose of the betting line ultimately is for them to make money. If they were still applying a HFA number based on previous years which doesnt exist now, they would actually be creating a competitive advantage to the very people betting on the games. Bookies don't do that, because that would be charity and bookies don't do charity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/11/11/home-field-advantage-is-lie/

"Traditionally, sports bettors have treated home-field advantage as being worth roughly three points, meaning when two evenly matched teams play one another, the home team will be favored by three points in the line. This year that advantage appears to have shrunk to a half-point per game."

So, even if we took that final number of yours, 6.5points, that is without the standard HFA factored in. Bottom line, they were strong favs. They were one of the strongest favs last week, for obvious reasons.


Altho like i said, i wasnt fixating on the betting line. I was talking more about how many people thought they would win. People overwhelmingly expected them to win, as they should have done. Not sure why you'd want to pull your own team down to the level of a team like the Deadskins, but i suspect if i'd come in before kickoff and said this game was little more than a coin flip you and your buddies might've had something to say about it heh.

 

This is really the point for me about being favored. Despite the upset, these teams are not evenly matched. I see your point.
1% chance for the Giants and the FT to win. Too bad I don't gamble.

 

You’re not even a Steelers fan and analyzing them in a vacuum. You’re only looking at 11-0 vs 4-7

the Steelers have been in a regression over the last few weeks, can’t run the ball, losing key defensive players, 7 starters out not including their K, barely beat a depleted Ravens team, playing on 4 days rest against a team that has been playing much better in the last few weeks a very good defense and running game and playing on 10 days rest. It was foolish to think that the Steelers should be heavy favorites, should easily win that game, or couldn’t easily lose that game on Monday night