Detroit Red Wings

Wings over Islanders, 4-2. Red Wings are 7-1-0 on the road this month.

 

Petr Mrazek enjoying a red-hot January: 7-1-1, 1.32 GAA, .952 save %, 2 shutouts.

 

It'll be fun to watch Larkin vs. Eichel in future ASG's. That Larkin was not a super high pick is a reflection on why Detroit has been a playoff team (seemingly) forever.
Great scouting and patient player development. Yeah, that'll help a team.

 

Two follow up points to my post above:
Patient development does not always mean drawn out over a long time. It also entails having the discernment to recognize when a prospect is ready for a higher level. I cannot think of a better example than Larkin - U. Mich., to the AHL playoffs, and then to the NHL. (I do wonder if Babs would have been too rigid and insisted that Larkin get more seasoning in Grand Rapids.)

Larkin was taken #15 in 2014. I am a draft history junkie, and have charted NHL performance by draft position. There is a very predictable decline from #1* straight down the rest of the draft, (* actually #2 has been statistically better than #1). There is one glaring exception; #15 is statistically on par with #29. Larkin could obliterate that anomaly, (and for Matty's sake, I hope the 2015 #15 does the same).

 

Excellent thought. I tend to agree that under Babcock, Larkin may still be in the AHL.

It raised a few eyebrows when he was deemed a Red Wing, but man, what a find he turned out to be.
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They certainly got this one right. All in all, I like the way the Wings over time have judge when a player is ready, but at the same time they tend to sit on talent and become a sort of log jam on what to do next.

I sure wish a top-notch D-man would come up through the system... wouldnt that be nice?
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In the vast majority of cases proper player development involves a healthy stint in the Juniors/Minors.

I think Mikael Grigorenko, for example, could be a burgeoning top-six winger star today if Buffalo had given him more time in Qu?bec then Rochester.

A team must have a solid organizational plan - an identity - in order to pull this off consistently. But, the key to using a plan is to not get too rigid with it. I believe that "policy" does not dictate to us, but rather makes it easier to identify when exceptions should be made.

I believe Toronto's future is brighter because they have Babs. But, ironically, Detroit's may be brighter because he's no longer there. His long tenure behind the Wings' bench will continue to benefit the organization for a few years. But, every organization needs a refresher every so often so that things don't get stale.

There are four teams that I see as poised to dominate the EC starting in 2-3 years: BUF, BOS, DET, & TOR. (I should quickly note that being poised for success is no assurance that it will happen.) These teams are accumulating great young assets and have the financial wherewithal to compete. I see these four as having the combination of patience along with a sense of urgency to get things done.

I think we're headed for some glory days with some tremendous competition.

 

as a fan of an EC team Im worried about whats happening in Florida. Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad and company are in a position to do damage moving forward. They also have some pretty good kids in the marinade.

and Will, the Broonz are looking for a top notch homegrown Dman too, let Sweeney know if you guys figure that issue out.

 

I agree that FLA could be in the mix. But for me there's still some convincing needed. They're there right now due to a mix of youth and of geriatrics, with a heavy reliance on the real old guys. Can the youth learn enough fast enough to sustain this once the old guys are gone?

Also, the franchise appears perpetually fragile as long as they play where they do. They have not developed a strong indigenous fan base in Sunrise. I believe the franchise is probably in S. Florida to stay. But, will they really have the economic clout to compete?

These are the reasons/ question marks that made me peg them down from future EC elite status.

 

CAPTAIN'S CORNER

"It was great to get a longer All-Star break this year. Most of our guys were able to get away for a few days to relax and come back recharged for the second half of the season. Guys are really looking forward to the upcoming Mother's Trip and being able to play an outdoor game in Colorado. Those things will be exciting, but we'll be focused on improving in the standings and winning as many games as we can down the stretch of the season." - Henrik Zetterberg

 

can't argue w/ your stance on Fla's franchise volatility but as for the on ice product I think that what they have in terms of young proven talent is superior to all of the other EC teams. I put Barkov in the conversation w/ the elite young players in the league. As for young D it doesn't get better than Ekblad. They've proven that they can win, Toronto and Buffalo have not.

 

Detroit doesn't have a top pair dman identified 3 years from now, and Larkin has been in sheltered minutes and he's the only top line player identified. They have the ownership, structure, and contract situation to contend, but they don't have the players IDd and Holland has waited too long to pull off a monster trade for a bluechip player. I like them as a top 3 divisional team but they need to locate top line/top pair core types. Mrazek plays in a goalie friendly system and hasnt' been scouted heavily. I'm really high on him but I'm also reluctant to assume a 23 year old will handle multiple consecutive seasons with a number 1 workload.

Toronto will lose Phaneuf and JVR from top duty in 3 years. They're banking on projections to contend as they'll need Kadri to progress, Reilly to progress, and Marner to match his projections. They're still tearing that thing down, it's going to be 2019 when they turn the corner for good. I don't like them to contend before 2020.

While I really like how Krug has progressed, they need a whole new blueline to contend. While the prospects look great on paper, most won't hit projections and their current core will be on the wrong side of 30.

If I'm going to take a 3 years' futures bet on the EC for 4 teams I'm taking the following:

Buffalo: Enough cost controlled pieces and ownership even though I don't trust TM yet.
WAS: Coach, owner, and enough game changing players for a long time.
TB: Vinik, one of the top owners in the game and he'll take the keys from Yzerman in a couple years when they'll still be able to contend with a goalie, a stud dman, and a forward like Kucherov, even if Stamkos bolts.
PHI: I like Hextall and ownership is staying out of his way so far. Even with all the dead money there, in 2 years he'll be on the way up to stay for a while starting in 19' imo.

 

I don't trust the ownership in Carolina even though I like what Francis is doing.
Florida is a wildcard. If ownership is as serious about the hockeyops as they have been about their business plan, I move them up the list (when they fire Dale). Luongo has a few years left, Ekblad and Barkov will be elite imo, and the talent of depth is outstanding. The problems are the budget and the guy signing the contracts and hiring the staff to put it all together.
The Islanders are another goofy one. They are still in really good shape with a little support (that they don't get right now).

 

Im following you around the boards today, Bob, for 2 reasons. #1... for the sake of hockey conversation, and #2... i might learn some things. Hope you dont mind.

I liked your assessment in your post above, but it raised a few questions. I would like to know what exactly is the difference in the way a certain 2 clubs might run their systems (farms). Is just the leadership in charge of the over-all operations like Holland has in Detroit or are there 2 different and separate systems to model after.

It seems in Detroit they sit on guys too long and gamble on a couple and get lucky like a crap game. Are GM's running other types of systems where a certain player has a certain amount of time for growth and then he's evaluated.

Im trying to wrap my head around an understanding as to why with all the talent spread throughout AAA, AA and even A hockey programs, why 1 team is better than the next.

 

I would love to be able to break down the farm systems but I really can't with too much confidence. Some franchises are really easy to follow.

All I can do is go off of the personnel, history, and staff often using 2nd hand information.
As a general rule, if a franchise has expensive staff and a bunch of them, they're running the farm as an extension of the big team. At least half the league does not do this.

A farm like Florida ha no coherent plan and they lack the resources to execute one anyway. They pick up players, sign them and throw them to a wall to see what sticks. The downside is that many players will fall through the cracks limiting the pressure for ice time and players will be put in positions to fail with regularity. The upside is faith and patience from management for their favorites and the ability to develop with more creativity in some cases.

A farm like Detroit slots every contract, minute, and skillset aligned to compliment the big team. The upside is that the prospects are ready for the NHL game on and off the ice. They have a comprehensive plan individually and players are usually put into a position where they are very likely to succeed and maybe even have more success than they would otherwise have. The downside is the lack of creativity in development and players that might be better than their utilization says they are, get buried with no hope of emerging.

I tried to condense what I think those two systems are like, in general terms. My full explanation would take pages and dozens of specific examples. I[del]waste[/del] invest alot of time trying to figure that stuff out. I would probably have to buy you lunch just to explain my perspective so would be able know where to see the holes in my [del]guesswork[/del] analysis.

Some systems like STL are restricted because their affiliate controls the franchise and runs everything on their terms. Because of limited resources and the situation with the Wolves, I think it's very difficult for STL to fully manage an entire farm effectively. I would think the bottom 10-15 contracts are managed inefficiently.

A franchise like Toronto was more predictable until now because they used to seem to run their affiliate to win as well. It seemed like there was more emphasis on building a winning culture rather than a developmental pipeline. They've been gutting everything lately so it's tougher to say what they will be. Are the going to make Lou's "character factory" or will they make the Marlies an extension of the Leafs, or will it just be a longterm farm until they unfuck themselves before going back to something else the resembled what they were.

A franchise like Vancouver or San Jose leaves me scratching my head. Usually, if I'm scratching my head they're closer to what I would consider the 'Tallon model' of flinging stuff to the wall to see what sticks.

At the end of the day, I have limited information. I build backwards to try to say what the farms are doing now. It's very similar to what the French generals were doing in the 1930s to assess what they would do in a war tomorrow.

 

I don't know. I've been trying for years to figure it all out myself.

Sometimes it's just a matter of a system and continuity, other times the performance is just a reflection of the actual talent acquired in relation to the opposition. I can often see both in a program depending how hard I stare.

Some other opinions:

Before the AHL, I think a talent can trump a system. In the JRs, we see players like Mantha, Beach, etc. destroy the competition because of physical diffferences among the players. In the NCAA we see upsets regularly because the players are a little older and play within an established system with lots of continuity.

 

Great point. The ol' winning is more important than anything attitude could and does get in the way. Great post Bob.

Im concerned that the Walleye are getting too good for their britches also. They are stacked with talent that if they dont move the players through the production line a bit quicker these guys in Toledo are going to become stail.

Lerg (goalie) is phenominal so far this season... he doesnt let pucks in. I think he better get a drink in GR soon, but maybe the system is already in a log jam.

 

Is that the Darren Pang wannabe from Michigan State many moons ago?

 

Ya same one. After i looked at his bio I wasnt nearly impressed. I guess he has had more than enough shots at the bigs, just cant quite cut it.

Now, I wonder just what the hell is he doing in Toledo. He has really improved, but i dont know if he is worth a risk or not. He had 2 shots with GR, so I guess he aint all that.

 

I looked at his bio.
He's the equivalent of 4'3" an 87lbs for today's pro game.

I'm guessing it's just a matter of volume. He should blame his mom and dad like I do for any and all genetic shortcomings.

I do enjoy watching small goaltenders play, like the Panger.