Detroit Red Wings

How would you fellas grade Holland in light of this 4 year extension? Mistake? Good move? Is he one lucky bastard?

 

I grade it a C. The money and term don't really matter, I don't think the Ilitch fam is too worried about nickels and dimes on loyal employees.

Since they've taken this route, I don't have any idea how you hire a new replacement. They aren't in a good position to make a major move in terms of acquiring high end help, to sell off, etc. There's no reason to replace him unless the organization makes a philosophical shift. Detroit's FO is a system, and continuity is important so I do think you have to keep him unless a real heavy hitter like Lombardi becomes available.

 

Tony Marinaro:

 

Mantha has to start playing this year imo. It's not so much about whether or not he's the best player, it's about setting the stage for the prospects. Almquist bolted, rumors about Jarnkrok and Tatar seem plausible, DeKeyser looking to cash in huge, and the scale has tipped in favor of young players. The league, including Detroit, is shifting/has shifted in favor of carrying cost controlled players and Kenny has to reset the precedent before he loses any more control over the young players/prospects. They carry a stronger hand in negotiations, it's time to tread carefully. Prosects aren't interested in "development" for a fifth to a 10th of what they would make in good pro leagues. He needs to make a decision on DeKeyser without thinking about the implications for a championship in the next year or two in my opinion.

Time to start moving a few more up or out, including Ferraro, Anderson, Pullkinen, etc. There are 8 or 9 that would be higher on the depth chart in more than a few franchises.

 

I agree with what your saying. It's time to thin the old herd and if there really is a youth movement, live it, dont beat around the bush. I think thats the direction they really want to go, but that loyalty thing keeps getting in the way.

Start the newcomers early this season and baptize them with fire, the experience will pay off come playoff time. I think Mantha is going to make the team somewhere even if it might be because of injury. I like what Cleary can do, but I have my doubts as to how long he can sustain it and stay healthy.

We should see some pretty good battles for positions on the team come camp and preseason...should be real interesting and competitive. There' is still plenty of leadership and veteran experience to go around at the core and if they play their hand just right, the Wings should have a good mix of youth and guy's who can show them the ropes.

 

This is true; but it shouldn't be. By definition, prospects are young and do not have experience to guide them; they can only react to expectations. If you ask a successful NHL veteran to comment, I expect the vast majority will state that it is not how long it takes to get to the NHL that matters, it is how long a player stays there. The difference in ELC dollars (ballpark $900k, and an AHL salary ~$75k) is huge - when you're living it - but is easily offset in one year if that player establishes himself in the NHL.

As a Sabres' fan, I can attest to the allure of this approach. In some cases this is in the best interest of the player. More often, a prospect benefits from a season or two in the AHL, (assuming they're AHL-eligible). Player development is not a science, it's an art. The most important factor is what's between the prospect's ears, and what's in his chest.

For example, Zemgus Girgensons had a fine rookie campaign after a less-than-stellar season in the AHL. He has the mental acumen and fortitude to benefit from the challenges at the highest level in hockey. On the other hand, the player taken two spots earlier in his draft, Mikhail Grigorenko, was quickly brought to the NHL, and three years into his career seems destined to spend the season in Rochester, (this is the first year that he's AHL-eligible). It's not that the Sabres struck out with Grigs and hit a homerun with Girgs; it is how each player's development was handled.

 

Just to be clear, I'm not really calling for Kenny to dump old players in favor of young ones. I think there's room and a window for a number of philosophies to work. I'm asking him to change how he manages the prospect pool. Time to change lanes, and time to stay in a different lane. Enough 'overripening'. Play them or move them or sign them early or make bad promises, etc...just do something with them.

 

If I were a Wings' fan I would probably be advocating for the same thing. In fact, this coming season could be ideal for any EC team to infuse young talent. With the exception of Montreal, I do not see one EC contender that I feel has made any significant progress from last year. The "baptism by fire" for EC teams is more likely to be a "baptism by hot air". The NHL experience may not derail their development as it might if they were facing tougher opposition routinely.

Normally I would advocate a more gradual process, but the Wings have an exceptional pipeline, and an incredible history of success over the past two decades. Their fans have been spoiled, (a good thing), so serve the youth while the iron is hot.

 

I just feel like the formula they have been using over the past couple decades needs to be tweaked just a little. The push for the playoffs the past 3 seasons has been barely getting it done and with not much playoff success when getting there, its time to try a slightly different approach. Some of the youth have been in the crock pot of GR for a while, I say lets see what they got and do it early in the season. With the inability to land a FA of significance lately the talent must come and be utilized from within. I dont see another way. Gotta use the assets or they will bolt because someone else is seeing their ability. Ide rather see some of the prospects used in a trade for a well seasoned vet, than have them turning stagnant in GR.

Sometimes I think the Wings put a bit too much emphasis on the long hull instead of directly attacking the here and now. It seems as if they are standing pat more than usual recently and the lack of trying something different is concerning to me. Sometimes I wish their were a quicker trigger finger involved. Take a gamble or risk once in a while.

 

I think it's too early to categorize the pipeline as anything other than deep. Mantha is the only real bluechip prospect. Nyquist is pretty close to being a fully developed professional, I really like him overall, but I don't think he's going to do too much more than what we've seen. While the ceilings are really interesting for most of these players, the floors are equally difficult to project and project just as low as the ceiling is high in most cases.

I'm not sure what you mean here by a tweak. I think we're close to thinking the same thing, maybe I find it a little more significant.

The biggest thing that needs to change is the timeline and ice time management if they're going to carry a big pool. The CBA shaved FA eligibility requirements, gms know to win means cheap and quality depth from cost controlled players, and players (and the agents) know promising players carry more leverage than ever. A big pool doesn't mean much if there's no ice time to fight for and if the organization is costing them hundreds of thousands or millions over the course of 2 or 3 years because of circumstances around the league.

that's my concern as well.

I'm not sure. After missing on the FAs, I see no reason to take on ALfie unless he's ready to make a serious effort on major acquisitions. He's just taking shifts away from young players that need to get used to the roster, and the league. Shifts in GR matter too, Alfie pushes all the wings back a slot. With so many projecting in top 6 and 9 roles, that ice time is precious. Make a serious contender or make a hole.

Fortunately, this is another year where the east will be a mess in terms of continuity, adjustment to new lines and coaches, and various stages of roster restructuring. If there is a year where they could sneak into contention without having a really strong roster, this year will be one of the better ones, especially in the Atlantic.

 

I know I kind of contradicted myself on Alfie and this being a year where a team could slip in. My preference would be to skip Alfie unless a major move is planned (prior to the AS break), but I can see a very good argument to keep him regardless.

 

This is nit-picking, and I will confess that before starting. By definition, a pipeline consists of players before their NHL careers. Therefore, depth, (i.e., quantity of prospects), is one of the most critical components for a strong pipeline. The quality of a team's pipeline is conjecture based on solid analysis, but conjecture nonetheless; there are no prospects with impressive NHL stats. There are occasionally very young players with strong production, but they are no longer defined as prospects.

I consider the Wings to have one of the top three to six pipelines based on the future production potential, which is another way of saying quality. A lot of quantity and a lot of quality - to me that defines an exceptional prospect pipeline.

 

No, it's not nit picking. Some of the problems with hockey discussions are the language and semantics. I agree with what you say about the pipeline being strong and deep, I was disagreeing about it being exceptional.

I usually prefer depth in a system over having multiple high end players. The reason I like the Wings system now is that instead of having a prospect like Mursak (remember his projection in 2009 or 10 wings fans?), they have 3 prospects like Mursak now for example, so I think one will stick on an NHL, but not necessarily in the top 6 or 9. As much as I like the upside of Detroit's prospects, I think the downside is just as dangerous and too often overlooked in that system.

Too many of them are top 6 types or offensive dmen (like Almquist but thankfully larger), if they don't get one of those roles, it can be really tough for them to stick to a roster anywhere. If 5 or even 4 of them stick in top 6 or top 4 roles in 3 years or so, the system right now will be nothing short of elite and I will completely agree with any claim calling the system exceptional.

Given the mix of talent and quality, I can only call them deep.

 

As usual, Bob, you've given us something to think about. With an emphasis on language, I will paraphrase your comment: "Some of the problems with hockey discussions are the language that fans choose to bolster their opinion but that do not hold up under scrutiny." Semantics can be tricky, and with a subjective topic that we're discussing, I agree to accept your opinion without agreeing with the final conclusion. There is no right answer at this time. From the Sabres to the Avs, (IMO, best & worse pipelines), no one can be certain of how a pipeline will perform where it matters - in the NHL.

Again, I will paraphrase: "I think the downside is just as dangerous and too often overlooked by anyone evaluating any team's prospects." A team has to be evaluated not as a sum of the individual pieces, but in what they can do together collectively. Great teams achieve more than the sum of the pieces; usually this is because high-end players are also leaders that get lesser players to perform above their talent level.
Likewise, we cannot evaluate a team's prospects by looking only at the depth & performance potential, (quantity & quality). We must also consider how the players mesh with each other; albeit a very difficult task.

Player development is bandied about as if it serves a self-evident role on each team. I believe that it is under-appreciated by most, and I believe that the comments about a team's pipeline reflect on why it's critical for a team's success, and for why it is difficult for many teams to do this well. (As a Sabres fan, I look at a [former] GM that drafted well and made outstanding trades and wonder "how did we get to this?". The answer, IMO, is that Darcy Regier was sorely deficient at player development. We can only hope that Tim Murray is more proficient.)

 

From this perspective I would characterize Detroit's farm as exceptional as well.

I would add to your quoted comment above (which is probably where we diverge a bit on our conclusions/guesses):

"in the present rule set, under the current organizational philosophy, and established conditions".

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Absolutely, well said. That kind of goes to my point above and my previous comments about Mursak, how an individual slots into the 50ish players under contract.

My perspective is coming from trying to see them fit the players into everything (that I can consider) from the 2nd line to the 40th contract slot. I'm considering the availability of ice time at both levels, situational ice time at both levels, ideal linemates, coaching system, development system, cap implications, continuity, FA clock, characteristics of play, characteristics of clear deficiencies (doesn't shoot enough, fast, slow, size, etc.) short and long term organizational needs, professionalism, maturity, intangibles, etc. Obviously one player move anywhere tilts all the scales in terms of value.

lol, well said. We'll figure this stuff out eventually.

I'll be very interested in Detroit, I think they'll be more interesting than most recent years. Babcock, a big pool to sort through, and a conference that will still be up for grabs. We still have to see what happens with Dekeyser and Alfie.

 

With all the healthy centers on the roster, Mike Babcock said today he is going to start Darren Helm on the wing on Datsyuk''s line.

Daniel Alfredsson skated today, but still no word on his future with the Wings.

Wonder when they plan on getting around to signing Dekeyser? Bab's needs to put some ink on paper too.

 

On this date, 1971. Mr. Hockey hung up the skates for the Wings after 25 years with the team.