Decisions decisions

Carr finished something like 5 spots ahead of Mayfield in most formats last season and he's going to throw the ball a lot more. Give me Derek with or without my bias.

 

Yeah I’d much rather have Baker as my NFL team’s QB and the Browns’ offense as my NFL team’s offense, but I might opt for Carr as my fantasy QB, especially knowing I can probably get him at least a round or two later, and chances are neither of them is a weekly starter except maybe in huge leagues or superflex formats.

Bye week matchups would be a stronger deciding factor for me in redraft over who the better player is.

 

I can't answer the question honestly. In my post I made it clear that Baker was because of my bias, but in reality, I'm not sure you could convince me that Baker will be going at least a round or two earlier than Carr. Outside of Ohio, I would think Carr would be drafted higher.

edit: Also, there is a prominent strategy that calls for waiting until round 7 to draft a QB out there in leagues that only award 3 points per passing TD. I have used that strategy and believe me, you are onto 2nd tier guys if you use that strategy as your starter. I won my money league with that strategy three years ago, getting Matt Ryan late in the draft as my starter. It wouldn't be too big of a shock if either were starters in fantasy.

 

Just going by where their ADP’s are right now (143/QB19 vs. 170/QB23) Seems like the Browns hype train is stronger based on how they finished last year and continuity plus the return of Odell, whereas Carr is dealing with a lot of OL and WR turnover.

 

I'm taking Baker for both.

 

This one is pretty much a push but im in the minority it seems as I lean towards Carr.

 

This is another good ‘versus’.

I’ll give it another couple days before I post up my thoughts.

 

Tim, no offense to any of the other posters, but you are going to give more thought into this one than just about anyone. I don't think you need to wait a couple of days. I haven't seen anyone really married to either one when it comes to fantasy value.

 

This feels like a nudge... lol

 

I'm starving for football.. I'll take anything I can get.

 

I'm going with Carr in redraft leagues and Mayfield in dynasty formats, and here's my reasoning.

Carr has improved each season under Jon Gruden and has eclipsed 4,000 yards the past 3 seasons. That's a trend that will likely continue for Derek as his season average since coming into the league is now at roughly 3,850. He's also improved at taking care of the football under Gruden's tutelage and has kept it in the single digits for the past two years. Throw in the increase in touchdowns thrown by close to double digits since his first year that Chucky arrived and the arrow for Carr is set at slightly above horizontal for 2021. The offensive line will be a work in progress, but the defense still has a high potential to be shite. This will give Carr more opportunities to wing it out for additional yards and late scores through the air. With Ruggs and Brown lifting the lid, Waller will continue to crush the middle. If Edwards steps up in year two and becomes a decent red zone threat then Derek could see his first season with over 30 TDs since 2015.

Mayfield will be as good as the running game allows him to be, which means that his yardage totals are unlikely to take a big jump up in 2021. If Cleveland is going to continue their winning ways, then Mayfield needs to be throwing the ball around 520 times total. If the offense this season resembles that of last, Baker would rake about 3,800 yards on that amount of attempts. This would also put Baker on pace for around 26 TDs, but I think we can give him a couple more and not think of it as overreaching (there's the additional game to consider).

If we want to throw in rushing TDs, it's a wash with the slightest lean in Carr's direction based on recent history.

If I had to guess on final passing lines:

• Baker Mayfield - 3,800 yds / 28 TDs / 9 INTs
• Derek Carr - 4,200 yds / 29 TDs / 10 INTs

Basically, this one comes down to a coin flip for what should be viewed as a spot starter/streaming option that should not be drafted as the primary starter in most formats.

Now, for dynasty purposes, things get a bit trickier.

If Carr struggles, or the Raiders flop in the win column, then he could be the scapegoat that Gruden and Mayock need to retain their employment in Vegas. Dumping the current passer and going after the shiny new object is a great way to buy time and keep off the unemployment line for a couple more years (see Nagy and Pace in Chicago). So, would Derek immediately get another shot at a starting gig? I'd say his chances are good, but you never know for certain and his new situation could be a lot less pass friendly then his current one.

With Mayfield, he is guaranteed to be the starting quarterback for the Browns for several more years to come. Even if he regressed mightily this season, all that would do is drive down his market price for his new Cleveland contract a slight bit. The tough part about that last sentence for the Browns is that even if he shows no signs of growth in 2021, the fan base would revolt if the front office decided to let him walk in free agency. Baker's agent has the ultimate bargaining chip - Mayfield is what the fans have been begging for and, no matter what, they are going to have to pay a premium to keep him on the roster.

So for Baker, the brown and orange uniform is something he should be wearing for several more years. Why does that give him the edge in fantasy in dynasty leagues? It gives a certain amount of security that the player is going to be at least relevant on game days whereas Derek Carr could be in Mariota's spot in another jersey by the time the 2022 draft rolls around.

Throw in the idea that Mayfield has potential to settle into a nice game managers role with the upside of throwing 30 TDs in a 17 game season and he might become one of the more consistent QB2 fantasy options at the position. Guys like this win leagues when injuries clip starters or if you have a rock solid roster that just needs some consistency from the quarterback position. Plus, I'm a big fan of Andrew Berry and I think Cleveland is headed in a solid direction for building the overall roster into a yearly competitor and not just a one year wonder.

Depending on how you are viewing acquiring either of these players their value for dynasty will shift. Personally, if I am in a startup and Baker is available in an area where secondary options for quarterback should start coming off the board, I'm drafting him with a bit of confidence because of his situation. With Carr, I'd pass on a player like Baker to draft Derek a couple rounds after acquiring some more bench talent. This would be with the understanding that I will need to address that position either in free agency or the draft possibly sooner rather than later. Taking Mayfield instead of waiting to take a chance that Carr would be there guarantees that I have a solid option in place if my QB1 is out for an extended period of time. If I gamble on getting Carr a bit later then I could end up with someone like Ben Roethlisberger instead, which all but guarantees that I'm searching for a new passer early in the draft next off-season. Or worse, I end up having to draft a combination of Tryod Taylor and Davis Mills, and the cycle just repeats itself with a floor low enough to caress a snakes nuts.

Or, you could simply take Carr over Mayfield with the idea that this season is the only one that is going to matter for your back-up quarterback and not give a shit whether he's in Vegas or not next year. Nothing wrong with gambling with your gut and fixing roster holes in the future when it comes to bench players.

 

Anyone else?


I think I have another interesting one!

 

Ready? < can I please get some more rally cap dudes?


JK Dobbins or Josh Jacobs?

 

Dobbins all day and twice on game day. Not even close for me.

 

Dobbins

 

Jacobs for the touchdowns

 

Wow, this is an interesting one! You have Jacobs who is a little more proven and Dobbins who has been a part of a RB by committee.

In my personal opinion, the Raiders will open up the passing game by utilizing the run. I think Jacobs will have the higher floor in his system. He is a safe bet to easily have that 80 total yards each week and a TD at least every other game. He is capable of getting you a 150 total yard game and two TDs.

The Ravens on the other hand are TOTALLY committed to the run to set up the pass. Dobbins is going to get more carries moving forward, not just as a Raven, but in the case of this exercise. I will be shocked if he doesn't get 375+ runs barring injury, where Jacobs will be closer to the 300 mark. You could see Dobbins with some 200 yard rushing games, then disappear in other contests when the opposing defense can't stop Lamar. Lamar MUST cut down on his rushes to less than a 100 per season if they want a long term investment to stay healthy. These touches need to be redistributed to Dobbins, along with the loss of Ingram and some of Gus Edwards carries. Dobbins is built to be a workhorse, they need to let him get his rhythm to succeed.

As for the passing game, I think many will make the argument that Jacobs is involved in the passing game... I believe he will always have the leg up on Dobbins in this regard. I see the Ravens moving moving Gus Edwards to the 3rd down back role and having Dobbins as the workhorse.

This is a really tough one to pick for me.

At the end of the day, I don't trust the Ravens to take the ball out of Lamar's hand and for the sake of consistency, I think I would go with Jacobs.

Again, this is tough because as a pure RB, I love Dobbins. Loved him coming out of tOSU and love his work ethic. I just think he can be a product of the system in which he will have REALLY big games one week and disappear in other weeks. That disappearing act can lose you more games than the big weeks might win you games...

In the end, I think they will be very close total points wise, just distributed differently throughout the year.

 

Dobbins is much better than Jacobs, but Jacobs is the running game for the raiders where as Dobbins is going to lose yards, TDs and opportunities to at least two other players.

 

The Raiders gave Kenyan Drake $11M guaranteed…I don’t think Jacobs is going unchallenged for touches in that offense

 

With Drake there that would change the choice far over on Dobbins side. The only reason it would have been a tough decision was because Jacobs was going to get the majority of the caries,
Dobbins will out perform Jacobs in every category. I guarantee Dobbins will be a lot better.