The ONLY thing that I have said about the Buffalo Sabres next year and SC contenders is this: anyone who puts the Sabres and SC contender together should be shunned for life. I think that the Sabres might - they have a legitimate shot - at reaching the playoffs next season. I know that there chances of winning the SC are just about zero. If they do what I expect in 16-17 then I may expect better in 17-18. As I see it now, the Sabres may belong in the SC contender discussion in 18-19. A lot has to happen for them to ever reach that point, but the leading indicators are extremely favorable.
Ok, I understood you saying they'll be a SC contender as being very soon. It's always good to shoot high long term as a fan.
The leading indicators are not signaling as well as they are for the Sabres, but at several times though this conversation I thought about how some comments applied to the Leafs. I do not expect a 25-30 jump in points for them next year for two reasons: 1) Lou signaled that there will be more pain before there's gain. This is honest but a disquieting indication that they feel the tear-down phase may still have more legs. 2) The Leafs did not suck nearly as bad as last year's Sabres. Your going to finish about 15 pts. ahead of BUF's epically shitty team. I think the Leafs are likely to finish somewhere close to where they are now, because I think the Leafs are about two years behind the Sabres' rebuild schedule. But, especially if they get Matthews, they could be dangerous again as early as 17-18. I like the Sabres young players/prospects better, but I am a huge fan of the recent Leafs drafts.
No two teams are the same as far as rebuilds go. The sabres used cap space to speed things up by bringing in ROR and kane's deal via trade. The leafs spiraled to the bottom after xmas because jvr, bozak and lupul all got hurt and then the dumping began with phaneuf and polak. Now imagine they draft either matthews or laine, they have jvr and bozak healthy all year. Then they have nylander, marner and shoshnikov the whole year. The X factors on who they sign in the off season e.g stamkos or a d-man, as well as a rookie breaking out like brown or kapanen. All of a sudden we have a totally different story here.
It's interesting that drafting #1 or 2 last year guaranteed the team of an instant starter and future star. The same is the case this year with Matthews and Laine. Of course, with the change in the lottery, we won't know who will get #2 until after the lottery. A year ago, we knew that Buffalo was assured of no worse than Eichel.
I'll agree with that, and I think there are two other prospects that could be top five. To me, the difference is that the first two are most likely to be NHL starters next year, and the others are likely to need a year of development. BTW, Nylander the Younger may be the best hockey player in the family. That's something to get excited about.
I don't think the leafs will pick nylander over tkachuk, him and marner are killing it with the knights.
To your point about being starter ready. Historically this hasn't really benefitted the team much, oilers prime example. Then there's players like skinner and mackinnon that regressed after their first year, could be mental or maybe the were worn down.
That's an interesting point, and I'm going to dig into how well it holds up under scrutiny. I discount anything related to the Oil of this era since they're such a screwed up org. Some first overall picks got there by mistake or by default (due to a weak draft class). Those players have to be discounted. But we can contrast your list with names such as Kane, Crosby, and many others, it is clear that in many cases the player both progresses and helps his team tremendously. It's also interesting to note that historically having number 2 often is almost as beneficial as #1. From there the draft follows a predictable straight progression* down in terms of draft position compared to NHL production. (* The historical anomaly is #15 overall, which statistically ranks between the #29-30 pick. Although Dylan Larkin all by himself could correct that anomaly.)
Even though Kane and Crosby did good in their first year, both the pens and hawks still didn't make the playoffs. You could even argue that having jack eichel up with the sabres this year hurt the team long term. They could've sucked for one more year and had a good shot at a top #4 pick this year. To be in position to draft so high means your team isn't that great and could use a couple other top prospects. The hawks ended up with toews and pens malkin. Also, trades and FA signings play a big factor in the team winning the cup years after getting that high pick, it just ends up being a building block. Yes, a first overall like matthews wont do much for teams like cbj or the oilers next year. In the leafs case, if they sign stamkos, an addition like matthews could turn them into a playoff contendor. Even larkin never played in his first year, benn was a 5th rounder and datsyuk a 6th, so anything can happen. Goalies could be plucked late too, like a rinne, hasek was picked late too.
I heard a little snippet on 550 tonight, I heard there's 5 sabres going to russia this month to play in the tournament. McCabe playing for US and reinhart for canada, and girgesson for latvia I think, not sure about eichel though.
Through the first half of the season the Buffalo Sabres had 34 points, which projected to 68 points over a full season. Over the second half of the season the team had 47; projecting to a 94 point season. (Their actual season total was 81 points.) Therefore, the 2015-16 season is a tale of two 41 game seasons. This was predictable, - I am on record stating the team would require nearly half a season (1H) to assess and assimilate their radically made-over roster with the new coaching system. Their performance over the second group of 41 games (2H) was an accurate reflection of their capabilities. The 2H is certainly large enough of a sample size to draw conclusions and to make projections for next season. If the team were to make no meaningful roster changes this summer the Sabres should be expected to contend for a low playoff seed with about 94 points. I do not expect Tim Murray will stand pat. The #8 pick in the draft will not make the roster for a year, and may not be a regular contributor for two or more years. Unlike last year, roster needs will not be filled by the draft in June. The team got very low scoring from the bottom six F's, and the team lost 7 of 9 SO's. These are the glaring deficiencies when looking at last season. Scoring picked up significantly in the second half, (GF/GA 1H were -20 compared to 2H -1, with 15 more goals in the 2H compared to 1H scoring). More encouraging, scoring came from all four lines with the fourth line being dramatically more productive as the season progressed. This sums up the outlook for next season based on no roster changes. The Sabres will continue to build team chemistry and identity and are good enough to be on the playoff bubble. Of course, it can be expected that the team will makes some changes, and commentary on what these may be, and the likely impact on the 16-17 Buffalo Sabres will follow in future messages.
I'll be reading. Some of the tough-luck bounces and breaks can sway the outcome of a few games and it was this few games that may swing a team either in the playoffs or out. I think with the right moves and the core gelling for another season brings greater chances for positive bounces and good chemistry never can hurt. At least thats the positive input I can add to the conversation. I still think a scoring top F or two is the key and all teams must get healthy, steady production from the goaltending. I dont know what your farm system brings when it comes to goaltenders, but it would be nice if the could focus on a few Forward spots exclusively without having to put much concern on the Blue or between the pipes. Anyway, i promise you this... you write, i'll read... Good luck.
I do not think we need to look much further than their SO record to infer what the FO is going to prioritize this offseason - top-six scoring. More precisely, I expect Tim Murray to aggressively pursue a top-six winger. The team needs to compliment their nearly-elite top six F's with a couple of wingers that can pot the puck and distribute the work load. In the process of achieving this they could begin to dominate some games. That leads to critical need 1: a top-6 winger, (I think the team will look from within the org. for the other needed top winger). BTW, more top end scoring would also lead to more success in overtime. An extra 3 or 4 SO points could make the difference in making the playoffs, or position them for a more favorable playoff seeding. I think the bottom-six scoring will take care of itself. 1) As noted earlier, there was dramatic improvement over the 2H last year. 2) The team has a large number of quality prospects that can replace any that move on. 3) Relatively speaking, the bottom six positions are the easiest roster spots to fill in the NHL. The D absolutely must improve, but as with this past season, when the offense improves dramatically, the D immediately looks more stout. I think that trend will continue for the Sabres. Ristolainen is rapidly developing into an elite blueliner, and both Jake McCabe and Mark Pysyk have established themselves as young players with solid futures. Bogosian will enter next season at 26 - hardly old. The framework is in place for a respectable D. The team has some rather solid prospects in the org. - mostly from the last draft, so organic help is a couple of years away. Certainly it is reasonable to expect continued positive development from their current players, but a huge need this offseason - need 2 -is to try to import a top-4 defender, specifically a LHD. Top-6 wingers and top-4 defenders do not come easily or cheaply, but if the team successfully fills these spots then they should be better than a mere playoff contender. These enhancements will start to make the team dangerous to play against. The Sabres seem to have a knack for getting decent goaltending; even during the tank seasons fans were concerned that solid netminding was putting the top draft spots at risk. Rob Lehner spent a lot of the season on IR, so he really has to be given an "incomplete" grade. What he did display was very encouraging and he has the potential to be a solid everyday goalie. Otherwise, the team has several prospects that leave me feeling much more sanguine about this position that what I felt a year ago. The Sabres have plenty of ammo to try to add the two pieces I have outlined above. They have 12 draft picks in June, and they have a lot of cap space*. (* I see about a two year window for the team to be spendy until the noose tightens with Eich. and Samson coming off ELC's. I do not expect the team to be real aggressive in FA, but could more likely use their cap space to pluck vet players with limited term from teams needing cap relief.) Of all pending FA's the one I personally like the most is Loui Eriksson. Liking him is a far different thing than saying he's the player I hope/expect them to target. At 31 he is certainly young enough to contribute at a very high level for a few more years, and he would immediately solve need 1. I just doubt that he would be worth the investment in the long run; besides wondering if at his age if Loui would rather go to a team that is more surely ready to compete for the SC. To me, he's worth 6 years at $36MM+, I just do not think that contract would be prudent for Buffalo. Stamkos is another player openly spoken of as being a future Sabre. I am not really sold since his production has declined in recent years and I doubt that he will live up to the value of his next contract. I'll come back later to post my thoughts on more likely - and more pragmatic - solutions for the Sabres need 1, top-6 wingers, and for need 2, top-4 LHD.
FNC no mo': First Niagara Center, and starting next season, the KeyBank Center. For the fourth time since its construction, the Buffalo Sabres home building will have a new name going in to the 2016-17 season, according to officials from Key Bank. The financial organization Key Corp has acquired First Niagara Financial Group assets in Buffalo, and will slap yet another bank name on the downtown arena next season.
Would have been more fun with a .net in the title. Ahhh, the joys owners must have by selling naming rights.
