In general I think there should be more Sabres chatter around here. They've got a nice (almost) consecutive-games point streak going after thumping the Rags*last night at MSG. (Their first W in that barn in a loooong time.) (*) I have seen more NHL games in NYC, by far, than any other venue. And I root for the Rangers when they're not playing the Sabres.) They have an almost silly dominance over TOR at home. They could have picked up 4 instead of 1 points in the roadies in DET & PIT. Shoulda been 3 after letting the Pens get back into it; I like the Wings and they need points a lot worse than Buffalo, so I'm satisfied with their 3-minute drill at the end to make that close. After a four-month training camp, this team has come together nicely since mid-January.
I'm an optimist by nature, but being realistic I thought the Sabres would do well to come home from NYC with 2 points. I expected 1, or 0. Instead they're going into their home finale with 4. The boxscore will look like Jack Eichel's G with about 40 seconds left was an en. Technically it was but Jack demonstrated his strength and persistence by fighting off two defenders. The Sabres now have 79 with a realistic shot at 83. If they finish the season with a five game winning streak and more W's than L's then it'll send them to the offseason in a very good mood. The fun thing is that they're really just playing to their talent level since mid-January. A year older for the young stars will help. Going to camp knowing other and the coaches' system will help a lot. Imagine if TM finds a way to add one major piece. This team could be battling for playoff seeding in one year's time.
In your opinion, what is the key piece to the over-all team that you would like to see implemented in Buffalo?
Of course it's my opinion, but it is based on objective evaluation of talent and comparisons to how similarly constructed teams have performed in the past. I think people must be cautious about comparing players and stats. from one team to another. For instance, EDM has been such a clusterfuck for so long that it's hard to project exactly how some of their players would perform in another org. Likewise, Buffalo had a massive roster overhaul in one offseason and brought in a new coaching staff. Their first half performance was not indicative of what they could produce. There was much too much assimilation required first before they could settle down. But, on paper, this roster was good for 85-90 points once they broke camp. That's not a good team - it's still the lottery, but in the second half they've pulled themselves very close to where they should be. They're playing to their level over the second half. And, that's respectable hockey. There are a lot of needs to get them to SC contender status, (and in '16-'17 they'll be a pretender for that - at the very best). Some will come naturally through the maturation process. Jack Eichel, Samson Reinhart, and Rasmus Ristoleinen can become elite, but are away off from that now. In very general terms, the team needs more speed, and better scoring from the bottom six. That later point has been very encouraging since scoring is no longer the sole purview of the more skilled skaters. In specific terms, the team needs two top-six wingers that can pot the puck. And, they need a top-four LHD. None of these are easy to obtain, but we may already have a top-six winger in the org. TM has been exceptionally aggressive in the offseason. I expect he's already charted his targets and had, at a minimum, preliminary trade discussions. The lottery result will influence decisions and options. Most likely, Buffalo drafts 7-9, but could be as low as 12. On the other hand, if they get lucky and move up to the top 2 then one F/W need will be resolved in late June. The team has generous assets to appeal to other teams: a lot of cap space (for the next two years), a boatload of draft picks (12 right now for '16), and attractive NHL ready players, (all but essentially ROR, Jack, Samson, & Rasmus).
I had to thank you for your in-depth answer and analysis and effort you put in there, Dan... good stuff. With those draft picks and Cap space, maybe they pull the trigger on a big name FA. I dont know who that would be, but TM is in a position to do some wheeling and dealing, it would seem. LHD's are a very hot target... wished I was one... you could just about write your own pay-check. Anyway, Buffalo is not last seasons doormat, but a team headed in the right direction. Plenty of young talent to work with and develop. I think the future is quite bright... im serious, im not pandering, i mean it sincerely.
I usually consider the source, I know I'm always going to get objective critique from some, e.g., Bob, Matty, and yourself. I did sense any pandering on your part. How a team grows in estimation around the league goes in stages, and not everyone is on the same step at all times. First you have doormat, which can easily become laughing stock. Then comes the realization that the team is actually doing something about turning things around. That's where Buffalo belonged last offseason. Then there's the "prove it" step which is the most subjective. The team has to demonstrate it on the ice. On one hand, the team hasn't done anything important this year. But a 25-29 point jump YoY is impressive regardless of how low the previous base was. My basic premise is that this year's Sabres need to be measured differently than others. It's not that they did not want to win (they desperately did). It's that their actions - especially in the first half - clearly pointed to other priorities. I think the lengthy assimilation and assessment process was necessary and prudent. The team is actually playing like a team now, and that is a HUGE improvement over the past two seasons. Once a team "proves" it then they have to repeat that and "do" it again. Once they've done it enough times then the team gets to the stage of your recent Wings, and the Hawks. I do not really give a shit what non-fans think of the Sabres. What I do know is that after a very long winter, it is fun again to be a Sabres fan.
A 25-29 point jump when you add jack eichel, ROR. Kane, reinhart and lehner I wouldn"t say I'm impressed rather pleased and kind of expected. It's what happens next year that I would term impressive or disappointed.
I think that what Buffalo did this season is - objectively - very impressive. It's one of the biggest YoY leaps in history. No team makes a similar leap if they do not come off a very low base, and unless the team makes major moves. Of course what Buffalo has done this year is impressive. That does not mean it's meaningful, however. For the huge step forward to be significant, the Sabres must continue to correctly make major moves. Buffalo can be 10-15 points better next year based on factors that I've recently discussed. That still would not be that significant , but for a team to go for a team to go from 54 points to ~80, and then to ~90-95 and the playoff bubble, in two seasons is, regardless of factors, a very impressive feat.
What they did in the off-season I call impressive, the results expected seeing how far down the spring and coil were pushed. If they move into the 90 next season I'll be impressed. I compare this to when someone that weighs 400 lbs goes on a diet, the first 100 lbs are the easiest to lose, it's the final pounds to achieve the overall goal that are the toughest.
I think I'm getting confused with your definition of impressed, I define it as unexpected or surprised. I remember you saying that you expected the sabres to be a playoff contender in a year from now before the season even started, so it shouldn't surprise you that they have over 25 more points than they did at the end of last season.
No, being impressive and surprising are not mutually inclusive. It is very possible to be impressed by an expected outcome. As the season unfolded I became increasingly impressed by the Sabres, and I expected the team to finish about where they will. (I believe I'm on record for projecting 80-84 pts.) That's impressive, (how could such historical improvement NOT impress?), even though it was expected. What about someone who projected the Hawks to win the SC? Does that mean they cannot be impressed by how they achieved that?
Ok, but you know with the new talent coming in there was going to be a huge leap. Eichel, the second pick overall, would've went first any other year, not sure what I could call him since I already have seen him play before he joined the nhl. Saying I'm impressed with his play when I know the talent he has, not sure it fits in that phrase. Also, a real goalie, all be it, he might not be the answer, and then you add evander and ROR, these are all known talents being added to a team that had nobody last year except for matt moulson and brian gionta. You also add sam reinhart after a year of conditioning. I call impressed when you put a bunch of no names in there and they impress the hell out of you. No, I wouldn't call the hawks impressive or the 70's habs unless I was seeing them for the first time, then I would be impressed.
It would have been ridiculous to not expect a huge jump. That's exactly what I did when I called for 80-84 points. Next year I expect a more modest 10-15 point jump, but expect that they'll look significantly improved.
so next year is its own thing and will probably be the hardest jump forward. thats my view anyway. lots of questions still on the roster, also a lot of potential answers. one of the funner teams to follow I think.
The sabres moved in the right direction but still have work to do, just like any other team that's in the middle of the pack, they're no different.
This is where I think this goes to extremes. The Sabres are not like any middle of the pack teams. Jack and Samson. Those two alone distinguish them from others. This team is going to be a SC contender. That statement has more objective logic backing it than any claim that this team will stay middle of the pack.
Let's even compare them to an 8th or 9th seed team like the b's, avs or yotes. I can't see where this big seperation will come from so quickly without seeing who they add this off season. Sabres have samson and the yotes have domi and duclair. The avs have mackinnon and duchene, see where this begins to get complicated and not easy to make a brash call.
The difference, skinny, is that you're implying that it is I that is being brash. I think your call is brash. There is more to evaluating an organization and projecting its future than who is currently on the roster. I am actually comfortable with my outlook for the Sabres being 10-15 points better, and therefore on the playoff bubble, in one year. Since my projections from a year ago have proven to be dead-nuts on, and since I have not found any compelling logic to dissuade me otherwise, I am sticking with my much more modest projections for next year.
I agree that they could be 10 to 15 points better and that would put them in the middle of the pack, which is not a brash call. Calling them SC contenders at this point is.
