I need to free up my schedule for an interview tomorrow at 3:30. I still have a Cardinals pick around then but I can manage.
Can’t believe he got to 31 here. I want him for all my teams, and strongly considered him for the Bills.
Joe won this round. Reads as though Tim wanted to move back as much as Joe wanted to move up. My take.
Trade chart would put the Chiefs ahead a few points, but all of the targets I had for them with strong feel for that high of a pick were off the board, the last one courtesy of the fucking 49ers.
This. I see the Chiefs would have been a bit too ahead without the late swap and I gave a swap that was still decently ahead for the Chiefs.
My trade offer for the Bills was still on the table for the Lions regardless of your pick because if I didn't get Morgan I was taking JPJ.
Sometimes there is a grander plan I’m not privy to. It was that last swap pushing him into the comp 4th that made me go “huh?” And personally I’m buying a bit into the value of that 5th year option. Part of the reason I didn’t take Arizona at 2(3) up on their offer to move back from 1(28). Team control
Honestly the trade is just ahead on the Rich Hill chart before the swap when I look at the chart but I usually like a happy medium that fluctuates each draft between that and the traditional chart so I'd say this trade came out even honestly. We both looked at it and got it done quickly. Tim isn't one to get suckered for something he doesn't want. I was quickly looking at the offer I was making while in the car before leaving so I only had a quick look from one chart just to make sure I wasn't making a horrible offer in my rush.
Were I not busy tomorrow during that time I would certainly have stayed put with 2 mid 2nds (I love those picks). Actually I probably would have made a plan B or C or whatever if I didn't see a player I didn't mind trading up for.
That actually went into my thinking as well, and that point of view depends on whether or not you have a player graded to fit that spot, which makes you want to stay and lock him up. I'm not losing value on a player that someone else considers to be worth that selection, so long as I am not losing out on what I feel is comparative value on my board. Instead, I snagged two picks in close proximity to each other in a range that I have near 40 players that I feel hold middle or better second round value. This draft, IMO, has more depth at that second level than any in recent memory. It has a nasty top 12, another 16 after that that are damn good first round selections, and then a group of around 40 players after that I feel make up what would likely be considered top end of the second, flirting with the bottom of the first-round talents in a lot of draft classes. If I can move down and get two of the players in that group rather than one, I double my chances at being right on similarly graded talent.
I should have been realistic and taken him instead with the Eagles to pair with Mims... and seemingly everyone else on the roster.
Oh I know Tim isn’t likely to allow himself to be suckered just like I know you won’t. The charts are entertaining to me. I don’t even use them anymore. Feel like I’ve been doing this long enough. Plus some of that “value” is dependent on the draft class and will not be equal year to year, especially when factoring in team needs and depth at certain positions. I guess for me the other evaluation of that trade that made me lean the way I did is the assumption that the team who wants to get “up” should be the team losing value. I saw the team moving back losing 20 spots from the 1st and 30 from the 4th and only moving up once about 40 and it felt like they didn’t gain enough. Again, just at a glance. I consulted zero charts.
It works both ways. A team wanting to go down with no clear buyer's market should expect to lose out. I think you know just like Tim reasoned, the mid 2nd in most drafts is my favourite part. I normally would not move 2 like that. Also I differ from the chart both ways depending on the situation. I only use them as a reference or when I know the other person uses them.
The other thing about charts is that it only puts a value on the pick, not the player. If you have a guy that you grade as being worth the #20 overall pick, he somehow slides to #35, and you pay a price equivalent to the #30 pick on whatever chart to move up and grab him, that's a good move. The chart would say you overpaid since it cost you the #30 pick price to get the #35 pick. But you got a #20 player for a #30 price, so... fuck the chart.
Jerruh wanted Manziel but he wouldn't offer the same deal to the Seahawks he offered one team before because of pick value. Seahawks said BS the value of the player doesn't change for you. Take it or leave it. They left it, it got known in the media and he said he made a dumb mistake not valuing the player... and he dodged a bullet.
