If you hand me $100 to place a bet on any direction the Texans may go in the draft, I will place it on a trade up with the Bears and the selection of CJ Stroud. That being said, I think there are some things to consider with what you have put down. This would mean more if ownership had shown any kind of patience with a coach, other than Bill O'Brien (which may be the reason for presently having limited patience). It could be that the years on the deal were the selling point for Ryans and the Texans are still only looking at it in the short term. I hope they have the mindset you allude to - They take a QB and give their new HC / QB duo patience. It's obviously a question mark that we won't be able to answer until we see how Ryan has things rolling. Just to get some expansion on this thought - Are you looking at it as any first round grade, a high first round grade, a potential franchise passer or another parameter. I'm just looking to get a little more out of your opinion here so we can continue on this track. I think it's a must, but getting someone quality may be tough to do (as Ev mentioned) and it will be even more difficult to get someone that thinks they may actually have a shot at quality playing time elsewhere. If they go with a passer at the top, then a guy like Henne, Gabbert or Mullens may be the best case scenario (really like the idea of Henne helping a rookie). I'm really interested to see where everyone starts to land on these prospects as we get closer to the draft. You have any early thoughts?
What a great read Tim, some seriously interesting stuff in there. Particularly liked the Eli Manning example. I'm feeling this start to veer away from the Texans and towards one of our big QB discussions/debates that we revisit over time and see how things played out....and i am here for it cos its always great chat. First some of the more peripheral ones: Carr to the Jets felt like a very sensible move to me for both parties. Douglas has done some v nice roster building over there, the Jets are gonna go into 2023 with a good roster. The Jets need someone who's gonna not cost them games. Carr does have a blip game in him now and then but he would provide stability overall. They go to the playoffs with Carr imo, no doubt. Now that Hackett is there tho its very hard to get past Erin being the girl. Im not convinced that is a good move for the Jets for multiple reasons, but it feels like its coming. So Carr has become less likely. I consider Garoppolo even less likely than Carr. Where Carr goes next i really don't know. But he has all the leverage and in refusing that Feb 15th extension to facilitate a trade, he's using it correctly. If he gets cut someone will prob overpay him so look to a move to a team with the cap to handle it. Its early for cap talk, but the Saints & Bucs are in a hole for that stuff so may be ruled out. They're moving forward with Jones for sure now imo. That Vikings playoff game sealed it. I think it'll be a lot more substantial than a tag of some kind. It'll be multi year. I'd be interested in what you consider seriously short money to be. 20mil perhaps? I think Smith is gonna get a good bag. Not crazy money, but my shout is 3-4years at around $30mil per with no less than 50-60 guaranteed(maybe considerably more than that). Given his career trajectory 9months ago i think Geno would be very happy with that. For the Seahawks its a financial commitment, but its not actually a huge one by today's standards. They then have a chance at a settled position and the ability to put 4 draft picks in the top 50 towards really strengthening the roster. And so we come to Garoppolo..... I do agree his market may be warmer than people think, i just also think some team will wind up being very disappointed with the return, unless Jimmy can land in a very limited number of good situations for him. The Jets feel like somewhere he'd have a chance. I get something of a 49ers-lite vibe with the Jets. Im not sure there's any postion group they're clearly better than the 9ers(CB?), but they seem like two similarly constructed teams. There wouldn't be the same quality of scheme or creativity, but there would be good supporting players on Offense, and crucially, there would be a v strong D on the other side. That would take the pressure off a lot and one thing Jimmy has never particularly impressed me with is handling pressure. Maybe thats subjective, its how i feel. The Dolphins is an interesting shout. Im not sure how much better the Dolphins get this offseason. Not in great shape cap wise for FA and ZERO picks in the top 50 of the draft. And ultimately do they want the QB headaches this would bring. One thing they certainly have is the weapons at WR to help the QB. To me, the 9ers are legit one the very best, if not THE best, spots to play QB in the entire league. We knew that with Jimmy, after Mr Purdy there is no doubt. It doesnt get any more QB friendly than SF. This is where a lot of my concern re Garoppolo comes from tho. The 9ers passing offense is a yac offense. Most of the time they get the ball in people's hands quickly and have them running after the catch, either by being schemed open or schemed into a position with blocking. There's no doubt an offensive approach like this will inflate a QB's rating, i would go as far as to say distort it since the number of required "tough throws" is lower than on most other teams. And even on an offense like that Garoppolo has the shortest throws! An advanced stat like air yards p/a comes in very handy here: I had a look at this quickly and by my loose metric of removing guys who played less than 4 games last season, no 49ers QB ranked in the top 16 for air yards per pass attempt. Purdy was highest at 17th. Lance didn't qualify(2games) but if included would've been around 30th. Garoppolo was ranked 37th!!! He's right there with Kenny Pickett, who Steelers fans will tell you spent most of the season throwing to the LOS! That is a very concerning metric to me for him. If you can't scheme high % high yac throws for Jimmy what will he be? If you can't give him above average pass blocking how will he handle pressure throws? How many beautiful deep shots do you remember him completing this season, or any season? I find it hard to think of any. It will be very interesting to see how it plays out. My call is that Garoppolo will struggle mightily.
He was the highest ranked deep ball thrower in 2019, top 10 in 2020 and has some high accuracy metrics to go along with those numbers. The shoulder injury may have snapped that away from him, or he may be playing himself back into health. It's a large unknown that we're going to have to wait for an answer on. You have me a bit lost on the YAC numbers. Brock and Jimmy have a near identical statistical split. Brock had 706 in 5 games, and Jimmy had 1446 in 10. That indicates to me that the scheme induced similar results on the short and intermediate regardless of who was behind the center. < That last point favors your overall argument, but it goes against what I think you are implying. If you look at them on the whole, statistically, most of the numbers line up with the idea that the system dictates how productive they can be. Jimmy had better yards per game, Brock a better TD percentage, Jimmy a better INT percentage, and nearly everything else is within a margin of error. I don't think you can take this season as anything more than a guy, that was thrown into a shit circumstance, finding a way to continue to win games. I think your $30mil per number is definitely on the higher end of what he may get, and that would include the open market. The $20mil number feels more in line, but the market may drive that number higher. If I were signing the checks - He's not getting tagged and he will need to be willing to play for around $18mil on a two year contract that has incentives that could get him all the way up to around $24. I'm not a believer in what he will bring long term and I would have no problem with letting him hit the open market.
Report: Texans hire Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator The Texans are hiring 49ers offensive passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik as the team’s offensive coordinator, Tom Pelissero of NFL Media reports. Slowik reunites with DeMeco Ryans in Houston. Slowik, 35, spent two seasons as San Francisco’s offensive passing game coordinator and has 10 seasons of NFL experience. He also spent time as an offensive assistant (2019-20) and defensive quality control coach (2017-18). Slowik also spent time in Washington as a defensive assistant (2011-13) and video assistant (2010). The Texans are expected to use the No. 2 overall choice on a quarterback as they rebuild. They are 11-38-1 since their last playoff appearance in 2019. Ryans hired Matt Burke as his defensive coordinator. PFT
The Texans’ offensive coaching staff is starting to come together. Mike Garafolo of NFL Media reports that they are set to hire Vikings assistant quarterbacks coach Jerrod Johnson as their quarterbacks coach. Johnson also interviewed for the Chargers offensive coordinator post before Los Angeles hired Kellen Moore. It’s a homecoming for the Houston native who went to Humble High School before playing quarterback at Texas A&M. He bounced around offseason rosters and practice squads before going into coaching in 2017. He did fellowships with the 49ers and Colts before joining the Colts coaching staff and spent one season with the Vikings. The Texans are also set to hire Bobby Slowik as their offensive coordinator and they are working to hire Klint Kubiak as their run game coordinator. PFT
And reportedly $72.5mil guaranteed. Got pretty close to the mark with that one @Campbell old boy. Wish i could say the same about Carr tho heh. Of course my mistake with ruling out Carr to the Saints was i thought for one crazy second that the Saints live in a world where cap constraints actually mean something. Silly silly me.
I'm surprised that your guess came under that actual, to be honest. I'll give you credit for it, but I'm glad I'm not signing the checks in Seattle...
I was a tad surprised at that too but not at all surprised at the thought process behind all this. I havent seen the structure of the deal, so its possible that in more practical terms it ends up less than this. Its right at the upper end of my little model for the Seahawks approach this offseason, but generally speaking, it still holds. The full power of 4 top50 picks inc two 1st rounders can now be brought to bear on making non-QB positions stronger. The Seahawks do still have the means to go QB at the top of the 1st round(20 is unviable), but my hunch is they don't. They're a playoff team with major draft ammo, they have a shot to get significantly better. Its all pretty contingent on Geno not taking a step back tho....
TE Dalton Shultz and RB Devin Singletary signed with the Texans today. Houston is adding some firepower on offense. The Texans are signing former Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz and former Bills running back Devin Singletary, NFL Network Insiders Tom Pelissero and Ian Rapoport reported on Monday, per sources. Schultz's deal is for one-year and is worth up to $9 million, per Pelissero. Singletary is also signing a one-year deal worth up to $3.75 million, per Rapoport. The pair of signings hope to bolster an offense that ranked 30th in the league in points scored. Both additions could help a rookie quarterback if they choose to go that direction with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The 6-foot-5, 245-pound Schultz saw a dip in his production last season for Dallas after the team placed the franchise tag on him in 2022. Schultz, 26, still managed to catch 57 passes for 577 yards and five scores in 15 regular-season games and arguably was at his best down the stretch and in the playoffs, when he caught 12 passes for 122 yards and three scores in two postseason games. Over the past three seasons, Schultz has totaled 198 catches and 17 TDs. The Texans have lost two tight ends in free agency: Jordan Akins to the Browns and O.J. Howard to the Raiders. Singletary, 25, has spent all four NFL seasons with in Buffalo, leading the team in rushing each time. But his role started to lessen a bit down the stretch with the emergence of 2022 second-rounder James Cook. In 2022, Singletary rushed 177 times for 819 yards and five TDs, adding 38 catches for 280 yards and one score. He's expected to team up in the backfield with Dameon Pierce, who was a standout rookie last year with 939 yards rushing and four TDs in 13 games prior to missing the final four games of the season with an ankle injury. NFL.com
The Texans are adding a linebacker. Denzel Perryman has agreed to a one-year contract with Houston, according to multiple reports. Perryman spent the last two seasons with the Raiders. He was a Pro Bowler in 2021 when he recorded 154 tackles, five tackles for loss, three QB hits, two fumble recoveries, and a forced fumble. He was limited to 12 games last year, recording 83 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, a sack, and two interceptions. Perryman was No. 91 on PFT’s list of top 100 free agents. Perryman, 30, spent his first six seasons with the Chargers. He also had a brief stint with the Panthers in the 2021 preseason. He’s played 96 games with 77 starts.
