You are going to have to trade WAY back to get a 2023 first round pick I believe. Wouldn't you rather have first choice of WR, rather than punt, then get possibly two low first rounders in 2023 that if you wanted to move up, will probably only net you between pick 6-7? If you are wanting a QB in 2023, you are playing Russian roulette with what will be available and if you can move up high enough to get them. This team doesn't need 10 starters, we need about 2-3 Really good prospects that, if you are lucky one will be ready to contribute in 2022, but more likely 2023. There are 5 WRs that are definitely first round worthy.. I'm looking forward to Tim's evaluations this year. At #13, we might have the pick of the litter. all 5 will most likely be gone between picks #10-25. Do you want the 3-5th best WR in this class, or who you deem to be THE best?
I think you're right - it will have to be into the late 20's to secure that future first. Lot of ground between now and the Draft, but I genuinely don't think Garrett Wilson will be available at #13. While Wilson is my top-rated guy right now, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, and Treylon Burks are not far behind. I think if the OBJ Saga taught us anything, it's that Kevin Stefanski's offense is best-suited for a crisp route-runner who doesn't improvise or look to make the moment bigger than it needs to be. We saw a similar series of events play out in Minnesota with Stefan Diggs. In this case, I think the scheme fit is actually more important than the overall talent. So we can move down and miss Wilson, Olave, and Williams but still get a 2023 pick and get a guy like Burks or Jahan Dotson (just guessing on who's a better scheme-fit)? Yep - sign me right the heck on up! An inconvenient truth, however, is that we have the following starters hitting free agency in a few weeks: Jadeveon Clowney (EDGE), Chris Hubbard (OT), Takk McKinnley (EDGE), Malik Jackson (DT), Anthony Walker Jr. (ILB), David Njoku (TE), Rashard Higgins (WR), M.J. Stewart (CB), Malcolm Smith (LB), Ifeadi Odenigbo (EDGE), Ronnie Harrison (S), Michael Dunn (OT), Blake Hance (OT), Malik McDowell (DT), D'Ernest Johnson (RB, ERFA) -- and four more players, including our incumbent punter and kicker. The ones named are either startrers or fairly significant contributors to the team -- 15 dudes who cannot all be re-signed. That also doesn't include Jack Conklin who, through injury, likely is done as a Cleveland Brown and Jarvis Landry who, if both sides don't agree to a restructure situation, is likely out due to cap casualty. I think another inconvenient truth is that Baker's injury showed the overall weakness in our roster. All we heard coming into this season is how this roster was one of the best in the NFL, the best in the AFC North and probably AFC overall -- and yet an injury to our QB resulted in a 8-9 season, several of which were uncomfortably close games (Detroit +3, Denver +3, Minnesota +7, Baltimore +2, and Cincinnati +5). While I firmly believe the refs took at a minimum four games away from the Browns, those close wins with a bit of unluck the other way could have erased those gains completely. Those teams finished the year with a 36-47-1 record... not exactly the cream of the crop. I think we need 2-3 really good prospects in the upcoming Draft *and* 2-3 really good starters from free agency. Realistically, Andrew Berry needs to play the long game here. Ja'Marr Chase isn't in this year's class. Garrett Wilson is the closest thing (IMO) and I suspect he'll be gone in the Top 5 or at least the Top 10. Chris Olave is the next-closest thing (again, my opinion here) and probably best-suited for Stefanski's offensive style. BUT... if Baker struggles (and the team overall struggles) in 2022, it's not just the QB that he's likely going to have to replace, but Stefanski also. There's no guarantee that the next series of HC candidates wants an Olave over an extra first round selection to get their preferred QB. The best-case scenario is holding that extra one and Baker rebounding spectacularly, then moving up to take the next Ja'Marr Chase in Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023.
If Jarvis is indeed a cap casualty, we need 2-3 really good prospects just at the wide receiver position. Pre-free agency wide receiver room if Landry is cut and Rashard Higgins walks (likely): WR1: ... WR2: Donovan Peoples-Jones WR3: ... WR4: Anthony Schwartz WR5/Returner: J'Marcus Bradley DPJ never got it going this season as the whole offense was spinning its wheels in second-gear, but he finished with 34 receptions on 58 targets (58.6% comp), 597 yards (17.6 YPC), and 3 touchdowns. To get to WR1 territory, he's going to need to at least double that output next season. Doable? Sure... but he also had some crucial drops this season and a few untimely ones in that Raiders game that ultimately ended up as a loss. This situation at the wide receiver spot is made critically worse if they decide -- for whatever reason -- not to keep Njoku around who, on a per-target basis was our #1 receiving option.
Two more points on these... The Browns F/O, as any good, information-forward F/O does, likely will have dozens if not hundreds of possible Draft Day scenarios prepped. Let's work with the assumption that Garrett Wilson, no matter what is the scrawl on Andrew Berry's post-it note. If by some crazy mechanism he falls to #13 (or even within striking distance -- I'm not opposed to moving up 1-2 spots to get him)... then we should 100% make that move. However, on the flip side of the coin, if because of a lack of overall QB talent in this class skill positions are taken higher than normal without the rush on first round QBs, then not only is Wilson, but likely Olave (again, for writing purposes let's assume he's WR#2) is also gone by 13 overall. At that point, unless you're blown away by WR3, it becomes prudent to move down and acquire future assets. And again, all of this discussion has the potential to become moot based on free agency. Browns don't re-sign Jadevon Clowney? Guess what I'm picking at #13 now and spoiler ahead, it's probably not a wide receiver. Second point: if Baker flops, we're probably looking at worse than 8-9 in 2022 and that's going to be a Top 10 pick for Cleveland paired with the first round pick from, let's say... Dallas which should (if coupled with a second rounder or future first) be more than enough to get to #1 or #2 overall unless there's the next "generational" guy waiting at the top of the class which, as of this writing, does not appear to be the case.
And I want to be quite clear: Baker Mayfield is going to win the Comeback Player of the Year award in 2022. I am supremely confident in his ability to bounce back and get into that Top 5 QB tier again, even if Stefanksi continues the sus play-calling. That injury did more to hold him back than I think anyone truly realizes, so he should come out firing and looking to reset the QB market with that contract extension. In no way am I suggesting that my confidence is waning in Bake with talk of moving back to hoard future assets. I just think it's the prudent move to make right now. Moving down and securing assets next year only sets the team up for extended success as we can bundle them to get a premier player of need or boslter the ranks and keep the Superbowl window open even longer.
What about an Olave over their 2nd or 3rd choice QB? Let's face it, we could have easily been in the playoffs with two games going the other way.. We have an upgrade at both Kicker and Punter, those two games are found THIS year. Now, with a healthy Baker, he would have more than likely found another game or two. I would venture to say, it is more likely than not that we will be back in the playoffs next season. As we found out, nothing is for certain.. BUT if we are, then we will find our pick to be somewhere in the 20 something range. If we make a trade down this year for a first next year, we will probably be taking on one of the better playoff teams from this season.. Which puts us in a position to get another 20-something pick next year. Two 20 something picks may not even garner interest from any team picking in the top 7. If that's the case, you may not be able to have a shot at your "preferred QB" Playing with current ammunition for dreams in the future will get us in trouble. Personally, if Olave is available, and I think he will be, I would make the pick and start planning for the next one.
I want to be planning this draft around building THIS team, not with an expectation that it will be someone else's team soon... Focus people, focus.
Not against this in the least! I think Olave fits the offensive system probably better than Wilson but I also don't have a high degree of confidence that both guys are available at #13.
1st off, they NEED to keep Njoku around. Stefanski's offense revolves around TEs, they can't afford to lose their best one. 2nd, I don't see Landry leaving this year. The cap isn't in bad condition, so his salary isn't an issue. The question is, Is there a disconnect between Landry and Baker? If the answer is no, then Landry is an integral part of the offense moving forward, if the answer is yes, then you have to ask the other question "What caused it?" If it was Baker, then I agree you need to be finding an answer at QB, forget about WRs at this time. If it was Landry, just another diva WR (Which I don't believe he is), then it is time to move on and getting someone like Olave becomes imperative to any future success. For the record, I believe Olave is better than Landry as a college prospect. I love Jarvis and what appears to be leadership, but Olave is on another level of WRs I have seen at the collegiate level. He has all the tools to get off the line, find the seam and if you need him to, GO. He can run precise routes, but Baker needs to develop some as well in seeing receivers adjust.
Yes, but you want to PLAN for a flop season? Because I don't. I want to plan to make this roster the best is can be for the 2022 season. I can worry about the 2023 season and beyond after we build THIS roster.
A mock draft for Irish this morning: Very few trades (moved back from 104 to 108 and picked up New York's 162 in the process). Gets a WR1 and then a number of players to fill gaps left from free agency/cuts.
Not at all. Baker's best connection with a wide receiver, besides pre-2021 Rashard Higgins, was probably Breshad Perriman. I don't know if he needs a true #1 just like I don't know if Stefanski's offense supports it. The offense, and Baker, are at their best when spreading the ball around and working off a complementary running game. If we believe he can bounce back, then if a team offers up a future first and you still have the opportunity to get a guy who regardless of draft position is an upgrade over the current roster, I think you take it. We don't want to plan for a flop in 2022 but they planned for a deep playoff push in 2021 and that completely crapped out, so I think the F/O needs to keep all options open and be mindful that the best-laid plans can change on a dime.
Agreed, I'm not even sure his scheme calls for a #1 either. What does need to happen is having players in spots. They can't deviate from the route...which in the NFL puts the offense at a disadvantage on most plays because, well, the defenders in this league are pretty good at pushing receivers off their mark. The referees don't call much inside the 15 yard mark(supposed to be 5 yards), so adjustments need to be made. I feel that is why we are much more successful outside the pocket. If inside the pocket, the first couple of reads aren't where they are supposed to be, they have time issues. If he can't scramble, he gets sacked. In many cases the pocket collapses with no escape route. Off of play action, it not only freezes the defenders, it allows for schemed roll outs that take away many of the obstacles the defense has to bat balls, it opens throwing lanes and allows for adjustments to be seen much easier. Problem with THAT is, it takes away half the field, which I am sure why Stefanski shies away from it. Honestly, it never happens in the NFL, but I think offenses would be better if they had multiple play callers. NEVER giving a clue before the game who will be calling that particular game, as each play caller is going to have different tendencies. The plays are the same, but the sequencing and how they are used in a game are most certainly going to be different. Hell, even change it up at half time if it isn't working that week.
Which is why this offense is kind of absurd.... Mix in run with pass. We should be able to do that with ease. Use the pass to set up the run. POOF there's a mindbender for KS for some reason?? Stefanski needs to get himself and his offense in check. Browns run the ball as well as any team, yet our philosophy it seems, is to stifle the passing game as much as possible. It's "Martyball" all over again...Browns fans have seen this act before. Why draft Baker if the plan is to repress everything he's good at? Improvising and all that. Shottenhiemer did it with Kosar and it cost us at least 3 SB appearances, and now we get to watch our coach snuff the offense again.
I agree. Olave does everything well and makes it look easy.....Wilson might be a bit more explosive but I want the perfect route runner. I want a WR that gets that instant connection with his QB, and a guy that the QB can trust to be where he's supposed to be. IMO, it's Olave all day.
Personally, I like Olave as a pure receiver. Wilson gives you more athleticism and can be utilized in different ways. Wilson's elusiveness in the open field would allow you to do more reverses and utilize him in the kick return game. But as far as getting off the ball and separation from defenders, I personally believe Olave has a leg up. The kicker is... Some have other WRs ranked higher than both..
Well, as for your moving down proposition, Jameson Williams just became available for a later pick, possibly even dropping into the 2nd round with his ACL tear.
In case anyone is wondering what we have in store between now and the draft for the NFL: January 17th Deadline for college athletes to declare themselves eligible for the NFL rookie draft January 22nd NFLPA Collegiate Bowl (All-Star game) January 28th HBCU Combine Mobile, AL February 3rd East-West Shrine Game(All-Star game) February 5th Senior Bowl (All-Star game) February 19th HBCU Legacy Bowl (All-Star game for black athletes) March 1-7th NFL Combine Indianapolis, IN March 8th 4:00 PM deadline for teams to designate Franchise or Transition Players March 14 12:00pm through March 16 4:00pm, official "Legal Tampering Period" for UFA to negotiate contracts with clubs prior to league open March 16th 4:00 PM the official 2022 NFL League year opens, including Free agency and team trade period beginning March 27-30th League Owners Meetings April 28-30th 2022 NFL Rookie Draft
