Alright... because no one asked for it: Mock Draft 2.0 (Picks 1-16; Post-Combine Edition) A number of players helped boost their stock at the Combine - the wide receivers put on an absolute clinic. Chris Olave solidified himself as a Top 15 pick and Garrett Wilson just put himself out of reach of the Browns' board with a top-tier performance. He's clearly WR1 with a bullett. 1.1 Jacksonville Jaguars: Ikem Ekwonu, OT North Carolina State. Jacksonville and Lawrence still suck. However, putting a franchise LT onto the squad I think makes a lot of sense. Previously: Evan Neal, OT 1.2 Detroit Lions: Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE Michigan. Local kid who had the best season at the position in the class. Previously: no change 1.3 Houston Texans: Evan Neal, OT Alabama. Texans still need everything and the offensive tackle class in free agency isn't great. Neal may have slid from earlier #1 overall pick but he's still a Top 5 talent. Previously: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE 1.4 New York Jets: Ahmad Gardner, CB Cincinnati. Ahmad Gardner is one of the best CB prospects to come in out memory... easily on-par with Denzel Ward. This move makes too much sense to me. Previously: no change 1.5 New York Giants: Garrett Wilson, WR Ohio State. This guy is going to be the next Tyreek Hill in the NFL - no doubts about it. He'll come in and immediately improve whatever QB they decide to trot out there. Previously: Iken Ekwonu, OT 1.6 Carolina Panthers: Charles Cross, OT Mississippi State. Previously went QB but watching those guys try in Indy was sad. This is a crop of QB3's with none of them earning close to a R1 grade. Cross might be a reach but it's Carolina's biggest need. Previously: Sam Howell, QB 1.7 New York Giants (f/Chicago): Kyle Hamilton, S Notre Dame. Hamilton is a next-gen player with potential all over the secondary as well as a 'joker' position linebacker. Previously: Desmond Ridder, QB 1.8 Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, WR Southern California. Well Calvin Ridley turned a $1,500 bet into a $11 million loss and will miss the season -- what an idiot. Can't trust a player like that so the Falcons should look to bolster the ranks with a vertical threat weapon in London. Previously: Kyle Hamilton, S 1.9 Denver Broncos: Kayvon Thibbodeaux, EDGE Oregon. Still don't love this prospect but it's hard to envision him dropping from the Top 10 picks. EDGE is a need since they got rid of Von Miller. With Aaron Rodgers off the market and this class being cheeks, I can see them looking to add a Jimmy Garoppolo via trade, too. Previously: Derek Stingley Jr., CB 1.10 TRADE!! Pittsburgh Steelers (f/New York Jets via Seattle): Malik Willis, QB Liberty. Here's your blockbuster trade of the round - Pittsburgh moving up from #20 to #10 (surrendering next year's first) to take the project from Liberty. He's a raw player and seemed to be the only QB generating legitimate buzz at the Combine. Pitt has been linked to him a number of times and where there's smoke... Previously: Drake London, WR 1.11 Washington Commanders: Devin Lloyd, LB Utah. Still their biggest need outside of QB and outside of Willis, none of these guys belong in R1. Lloyd is a modern-day LB who'll be a stud in the middle of that defense for a decade. Previously: no change 1.12 Minnesota Vikings: Derek Stingley Jr., CB Louisiana State. Stingley didn't participate in the Combine and he's a guy with a lot of red flags for me, but some team will stick to that 2019 tape (where he was legit a world-beater) and make him a top selection. Previously: David Ojabo, EDGE 1.13 Cleveland Browns: Jordan Davis, IDL Georgia. Well, lost my WR1 but picked up a DT1? Davis had a Combine for the ages and checks *every* box for analytics. He's the second-highest RAS score for a prospect EVER (behind only Calvin Johnson) and also happens to fit a pretty serious need for the team. Maybe he's snap-limited but he showed the ability to dominate the SEC and just recorded a 40 time on par with the top EDGE taken in the class (Hutchinson). With a 1.68 10s split, he can be *taught* to rush the passer. Previously: Garrett Wilson, WR 1.14 Baltimore Ravens: Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE Florida State. As previously mentioned, with their uncanny drafting prowess, Baltimore's selection in mocks is likely to move around a lot but I've got them taking an EDGE defender here again. Previously: George Karlaftis, EDGE 1.15 Philadelphia (f/Miami): Chris Olave, WR Ohio State. Premier route runner with legit speed - Olave is a great fit in the Philly offense. Previously: Trade with Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett QB 1.16 Philadelphia Eagles (f/Indianapolis): Nakobe Dean, LB Georiga. Philly may not spend a lot of assets on linebakers, but Dean is a special player and fills an area of need for the team. Previously: Trent McDuffie, CB
Mock Draft 1.0 (Picks 17-32; Post-Combine Edition) 1.17 Los Angeles Chargers: Trent McDuffie, CB Washington. Again, Chargers have a lot of options here since they're such a well-rounded team. I think if the Browns pass on Jordan Davis, this is the next logical fit or with receivers and a massive DT off the board, they could look at bolstering the secondary. McDuffie is a great option. Previously: Chris Olave, WR 1.18 New Orleans Saints: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama. While QB remains a concern, they have the option of adding an elite playmaker here who appears to be much further along in his rebab from injury than expected. Williams may not be shelved the full rookie season and could help out whomever ends up under center. Previously: Charles Cross, OT 1.19 Philadelphia Eagles: Travon Walker, EDGE Georgia. Philly can add to another defieciency here, although three first rounders coming due in Year 5 is going to be steep. They may look to offload one of these first rounders come draft day. Previously: Jameson Williams, WR 1.20 TRADE!! New York Jets (f/Pittsburgh): Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas. Jets being a little savvy here moving back, letting the board come to them, and still walking away with a top talent at wide out. Previously: Trade w/Philly, Nakobe Dean 1.21 New England Patriots: Andrew Booth Jr., CB Clemson. Sticking with the position and merely changing the selection's name. Previously: Kaiir Elam, CB 1.22 Las Vegas Raiders: Devonte Wyatt, IDL Georgia. Raiders appear comitted to spending big money on little reward in Derek Carr. So be it. Raiders have never been shy about reaching on players... and Wyatt had himself a boom at the Combine, which historically is another thing the Raiders fall in love with. Previously: Treylon Burks, WR 1.23 Arizona Cardinals: Tyler Linderbaum, C Iowa. Sticking with PFF.com's "best center ever" here, although QB could be in the mix with mini-diva pouting still. Previously: no change 1.24 Dallas Cowboys: Kenyon Green, Texas A&M. No change - versatile lineman have great value and it's still to think they'll go with a wide receiver here just because Amari Cooper is likely on his way out. Previously: no change 1.25 TRADE!! Washington Commanders (f/Buffalo): Sam Howell, QB North Carolina. Bills are such a good squad I didn't have a player to give them, so in this scenario they opt out of R1 and trade down to Washington's second round selection (#43) and pick up a future second and third. Washington can move up and get a guy who was primed to be a top selection before the start of the 2021 season. Previously: Jordan Davis, DT 1.26: Tennessee Titans: Trey McBride, TE Colorado State. Staying the course here as I think McBride will end up a R1 pick and Tennessee would appear to have a glaring need. Anytime need and talent link up nicely it's a beatiful thing. Previously: no change 1.27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Desmond Ridder, QB Cincinnati. Ridiculous and irresponsible for Bruce Arians to try and talk up Blaine Gabbert. Ridder has all the tools for a guy like Arians to mold into a future QB1. Previously: Jahan Dotson, WR 1.28 Green Bay Packers: Trevor Penning, OT Northern Iowa. Aaron Rodgers will be a Packer for life and Davante Adams should get the tag. Improving the line (cheaply) makes sense and Penning is a rising prospect. Previously: Andrew Booth Jr., CB 1.29 Miami Dolphins (f/San Francisco): Bernhard Raimann, OT Central Michigan. Miami still needs an OL and Raimann fits the bill. Previously: no change 1.30 Kansas City Chiefs: David Ojabo, EDGE Michigan. Chiefs upgrade the pass rush with a raw talent. Previously: Kyler Gordon, CB 1.31 Cincinnati Bengals: Zion Johnson, OG Boston College. Cincinnati finally pulls the trigger on an R1 lineman to protect Joe Burrow. Previously: Roger McCreary, CB 1.32 Detroit Lions (f/Los Angeles): Matt Corral, QB Mississippi. Goff played well enough down the stretch but they could take a late round flier on a QB to keep under contract for that extra season. Corrall has some upside and Detroit has enough holes that taking a risk here isn't going to make or break the 2022 season for them. Previously: Malik Willis, QB
I don't hate this, actually. That fixes your run defense for the next decade and there's so much physicality there you can get him putting some pressure inside, too. Feels a bit like "Big John" Henderson from the early 2000s with Jacksonville when they boasted a dominant defense and did the most damage they have in a long time. We have just Myles Garrett under contract right now and while I expect Jadaveon Clowney to re-sign here, that's not a given. The Browns will need a dominant defense to make post-season pushes with how extremely talented the AFC is now. Yes, wide receiver remains the biggest need and the free agent market is rapidly drying up, but we could spend R2 and R3 picks on the position -- especially if Garrett Wilson is off the board.
So the trades of Russell Wilson (and now Carson Wentz) will only change the projections slightly. Denver (presumably) gives up #9 overall to Seattle who clearly liked what they saw from one of the quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl / Combine. And presumably, that's Malik Willis -- the only guy in the group worth a first rounder (albeit a late one). So Seattle is sitting at #9 overall eyeing Willis and Pittsburgh missing on Wilson and now needing to leapfrog Seattle to make sure they get their guy. Looks like that New York (Giants) spot just became quite valuable.
Cousins to the Vikings for Mayfield... Book it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Again, realistically, Kirk should get right in the realm of what Landry signed for when the Browns traded for him ($15 mill a season). That's a reasonable contract all things considered and certainly an upgrade over Landry who's attitude I'm beginning to question more and more. Kirk can play the XY spots and while he's certainly not the talent that a guy like Garrett Wilson projects to be, he is immediately available.
Couple more "SAS Free Agency" odds 'n ends while we're at it... First up, Amari Cooper. He's rumored to have had a falling out with Dak Prescott after the Cowboy's postseason loss to the 49ers. He's going to be on his third team in four years and he's never produced more than 1,200 yards or double-digit touchdowns in a single season, despite being a "true no. 1" receiver. I do get that we're extremely needy at the position, and maybe it's a "beggars can't be choosers" kind of situation, but I would think long and hard before pulling this trigger -- especially after the Odell Saga. Next, cap space adjustments. Browns are again one of the top teams as far as cap space, so we're sitting pretty -- but we can improve upon it. I think the most logical move which also already seems to be on track, is the release of Jarvis Landry, who'll free up $15 million in cap space. While I'll miss his energy and leadership, it seems things soured for both player and team in 2021 and a fresh start for both parties may be best. It leaves us with a league-worst receiver room, however, starring 22-year old Donovan Peoples-Jones as your WR1 with the wasted-pick-in-waiting Anthony Schwartz as a "utility player" and Ja'Marcus Bradley as a tendered reservist. Ouch. Easy to connect those dots to Amari Cooper and nearly every wide receiver projected to go in the first four rounds of the upcoming draft. Case Keenum is your next Browns' cap casualty. A complete flop as a signing, he's due $7.1 million to be a non-factor on the team and cutting him can save an estimated $7.1 million with a $1.3 million dead cap number. Done. Nick Mullens proved to be not only as serviceable as Keenum in relief duty, but also offers some potential youth and upside that the veteran simply cannot bring to the table. Mullens is a free agent but the Browns could easily bring him back on a short-term deal. I am once again asking Andrew Berry to cut Austin Hooper. The fourth-largest cap hit on the team, Hoope can be cut now with the post-6/1 designation and save the team $9.5 million. He'll still have a $3.5 million dead cap number this year but that savings is worth it. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reported the Browns plan to keep him but that could simply be a "for now" statement until we have a chance to either add a player in free agency or through the draft. They could also be holding out hope of some team being desperate enough to trade for that bloated contract. Low-hanging fruit: Mack Wilson. After a fairly promising rookie campaign, Wilson has regressed every season and is mostly a liability on the roster. He's got a $2.6 million cap number that can be fully relieved by letting him go. Some of this may depend on how the other unsigned linebackers shake out - Anthony Walker Jr., and Malcolm Smith - but with starters Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jacob Phillips, and Sione Takitaki, we don't really need Wilson's meager contributions. Cuts / Non-retained Players: Jarvis Landry - $15.0M ($1.5M dead) Case Keenum - $7.1M ($1.3M dead) Mack Wilson - $2.6M ($0 dead) Austin Hooper - $9.5M ($3.5 dead) TOTAL: $34.2 million savings, $6.3 million dead-cap Now, let's turn that extra cash into players... first up, the needs: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE (Miami): with news that Jadeveon Clowney intends to sign elsewhere in free agency, the DE spot opposite Myles Garrett becomes an immediate need. It's disappointing to hear we're losing Clowney, but we do have some options out there. My first choice would be Ogbah, who really seems to have developed in his stint with the Miami Dolphins. He produced 18.0 sacks, 15.0 TFLs, 17 passes defenced, and 45 QB hits over the last two seasons. He has a reasonable (per Spotrac.com) market value at just over $10 million a season. Something to the tune of $40 million / 4 years would be a nice renunion contract. Christian Kirk, WR (Arizona): Browns are woefully thin at wide receiver, from both a numbers and talent perspective. That cannot all be solved through the upcoming draft and with Clowney's departure leaving another major hole to address, there's no guarantee that we'd take a wide receiver at #13 and an even larger leap to assume the top ones (Garrett Wilson, Drake London) make it to the spot. Enter - Kirk. He's in line for a contract like the Jets gave Corey Davis, something in the neighborhood of $38 million / 3 years. It's a lot of money considering we're letting Landry go for roughly $3.5 million a year more, but Kirk fits the analytics better - he'll be 25 years old to start the season and is coming off his strongest season yet. He offers a bit of value in the return game as well and would play the XY spots, meaning he's not a threat to DPJ's development as the boundary guy. Harrison Phillips, DT (Buffalo): another player along the defensive line the Browns should consider. Phillips could be brought in for around $12 million / 2 years to bridge the gap between now and some of our younger players' development. Tommy Togiai and Jordan Elliott have some upside, but neither should be relied upon as a primary starter. We also probably are going to avoid re-signing Malik McDowell after his incident in Florida. Phillips should be able to fill McDowell's spot on the line and the move also serves to weaken a conference rival that we'll need to get past in the post-season. Younghoe Koo, K (Atlanta): not a stretch to say that even with all the mess last season, if Koo had been our kicker, we're in the post season. Cleveland has failed time and time again to find consistency at the placekicker spot since the days of Phil Dawson. Koo has made 92.6% of his kicks with Atlanta and is 13 of 14 from 50+ over those three seasons. Upgrading the position and -- hopefully -- finally stabilizing it will go a long way towards sustained post-season success. $12 million / 4 year contract. That's my extra $34 million. On top of that, I'd like to see the front office prioritize re-signing several in-house free agents. Chris Hubbard, OT: the swing-lineman who can bolster the depth at left tackle while starting the season on the right side. Jack Conklin appears to have some viability this season after all, so holding down that spot until Conklin can return would be a huge benefit. $15 million / 2 year contract. Malik Jackson, DT: while not a typical analytics-driven signing, the perilous position at interior defensive line makes this move almost a "must". Even if it's another one-year term, to have a veteran presence at the position would give the team extra flexibility in the draft. $3 milllion / 1 year contract. Anthony Walker Jr., ILB: another one-year guy we stole from Indianapolis last season. Walker served as captain on the defense in several games and brings leadership and accountability to the squad. He was on a very team-friendly one-year term that would probably need to increase to keep him around. $15 million / 3 year contract. Rashard Higgins, WR: I just can't quit him. Higgins is expected to test free agency again but reports are out there that the team has indicated they'd be willing to re-sign him at the right price. At just 27 years old, he's still got quite a lot of football ahead of him and he's still never really been given the opportunity to shine. His best seasons coincide with Mayfield's best seasons (2018, 2020) and he's probably the player with the best chemistry for our QB. $10 million / 3 year contract. M.J. Stewart, CB: a guy who's quiety developed really well on the squad. While we've got an abundance of talent at corner, Stewart has also taken snaps at safety and with Ronnie Harrison expected not to re-sign in free agency, Stewart gives you flexibility at both secondary spots. $6 million / 2 year contract. Ifeadi Odenigbo, DE: really, just a signing here to not create more work in free agency. A serviceable rotational player who gives you some depth at the position, regardless of other free agent or draft choices. $2 million / 1 year contract. Nick Mullens, QB: consistency. Mullens probably isn't looking for big money in free agency and another year or two in the system only helps stabilize our backup position. $3 million / 1 year contract. If we could make all those moves (hey, it's my perfect little world)... QB(2): Baker Mayfield, Nick Mullens RB(3): Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, D'Ernest Johnson (right of refusal tag) FB(1): Johnny Stanton (futures) WR(Z-2): Donovan Peoples-Jones, Ja'Marcus Bradley WR(X-2): Christian Kirk, Anthony Schwartz WR(Y-1): Rashard Higgins, Demtric Felton (RB) TE(2): David Njoku, Harrison Bryant LT(2): Jedrick Wills, Blake Hance (futures) LG(2): Joel Bitonio, Michael Dunn (futures) C(2): J.C. Tretter, Nick Harris RG(2): Wyatt Teller, Drew Forbes RT(2): Chris Hubbard, Jack Conklin (IR/PUP) Offense: 23 LDE(2): Emmanuel Ogbah, Porter Gustin (futures) LDT(2): Malik McDowell, Tommy Togiai RDT(2): Harrison Phillips, Jordan Elliott RDE(2): Myles Garrett, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Curtis Weaver (futures) WOLB(2): Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Harvey Willie (futures) ILB(2): Anthony Walker Jr., Jacob Phillips SOLB(2): Sione Takitaki, Tony Fields LCB(3): Denzel Ward, A.J. Green, M.J. Stewart RCB(2): Greg Newsome, Greedy Williams SS(2): Grant Delpit, Richard LeCounte, FS(2): John Johnson III, Nate Meadors (futures) Defense: 23 K(1): Younghoe Koo P(0): <open> LS(1): Charlie Hughlett KR/PR: Demetric Felton, Anthony Schwartz ST: 2 As I see it, that would have us heading into the draft with the following needs, in order of importance: WR (XY) DE DT RT P FS OLB
Now... if we're swinging for the fences? Give me Bobby Wagner at whatever it costs. His last contract was $54 million / 3 years. Steep... but the dude is the gold standard of linebackers, still has gas in the tank, and could finish out his career with Cleveland teaching our young core of linebackers all the tricks of the trade.
Well... turns out this one came to pass. There's some upside -- the price paid was extremely low. The $20 million guaranteed is Jimmy Haslam's money, not mine, and the compenstation (a fifth round pick and swap of sixth round picks) was extremely light. Andrew Berry rolled the dice, knowing he might lose Cooper if he hit free agency and wanted to upgrade the receiver room. At first, it seemed like this move sealed the deal with Jarvis Landry, and maybe it still does, but reports out now are that Landry really would like to come back to the team but that he obstacle for both sides is money and/or contract terms. Reportedly, Landry would renegotiate the deal but wants to add years onto the contract which the F/O has rejected. One, this sends a clear message that they'll be drafting a wide reciever at #13, and two, there's a chance a trade market for Landry materializes and we at least net something out of the deal.
