2022

Discussion in 'Cleveland Browns' started by Lyman, Nov 19, 2021.

  1. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    This guy took the words right out of my mouth:
     
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  2. dlinebass5 M.V.P. Bears

    Got it, so no one can ever criticize a QB because we'll never know these things for sure.

    Do these things get written without ever passing by your brain, first? Parody of a human being.
     
  3. TopDawg Legend

  4. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    [​IMG]
     
  5. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    I dunno... I kind of agree with Daryl here. And that's painful to admit.
     
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  6. TopDawg Legend

    I definitely agree with Daryl...But it's still upsetting the way that shit all went down.

    Seeing Odell get his million dollar incentive for getting to the Super Bowl is like seeing an ex hit the lottery...

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. IrishDawg42 Legend Manager Browns Buckeyes Fighting Irish

    Of course we agree with Darryl, we are all exes as well, not just his teammates. It is circumstance in LA that has given OBJ a few Touchdowns to celebrate and a 100 yard game yesterday.

    This offseason, it will be another offseason of evaluation and free agency for OBJ that will lead him to be on a team elsewhere and that will be a bad experience for everyone involved...

    After the Browns paid him to leave, the Rams paid him a little over $3M to help them win a Super Bowl.. They are NOT going to pay him $15M+ per year contract to stay, which is what his camp is going to be looking for.

    I hope OBJ and his Dad enjoy this post season, I sincerely do, because they will be back to being miserable this time next year.
     
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  8. dlinebass5 M.V.P. Bears

    Fitting you'd use a picture of two characters with more going on upstairs than you. Both more intellectually honest, as well.

    Parody human programming dictates... another gif for your next response? Maybe some stats including the word "intended"? This board is always good for a laugh.
     
  9. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    A great thread/reminder of where things were trending before "a series of unfortunate events".

    Including:

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Lyman "Franchise Asshole" Browns Buckeyes

    Well . . . This thread certainly took a detour from where it started.

    I'm nowhere near as active on here as I once was and the last 4 to 5 pages explains that. So, carry on with the meaningless stats and even more worthless tweets. I'll go back to just lurking.

    I will offer some parting advise. For years we've looked to the Southeast to gauge where we stood in the division. I strongly suggest yall re-calibrate your compasses and start to look to the Southwest. The Bengals are for real. They're young, they have cap space and most of all, they're talented.
     
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  11. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    We're 7-1 against the Bengals over the last four seasons, 3-0 against Joe Burrow, and 2-0 against Ja'Marr Chase. They won two more games than we did this season and that's playing a nearly identical schedule with a broken Baker Mayfield.

    I'm sorry... if there's an obvious "gotcha" in here, I'm not getting it. Hell... flip their 4th place schedule with our 3rd place schedule and we're trading spaces in the Super Bowl. Cincinnati got Jaguars, Jets, and 49ers (record 1-2; PF/PA 78-81). Browns got Patriots, Texans, and Cardinals (record 1-2; PF/PA 52-103). Getting Arizona off the schedule also wouldn't have ruined Mayfield.

    I do agree the Browns should spend their premium draft picks this season on receivers like the Bengals have done in recent years. Ja'Marr Chase (#5 overall), Tee Higgins (#33 overall), and Tyler Boyd (#55 overall) outclass our wide receivers by a huge margin, but that's about it.
     
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  12. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    Update: it's Garrett Wilson.

    After some reflection and film study, I am officially changing my position to Wilson. And honestly, scheme fit is the primary reason why. I think looking at Minnesota's blueprint (Adam Thielen) and the offense that Stefanski is implementing here, we truly only need one perimeter wide receiver, which is Donovan Peoples-Jones. The liklihood that the team and Jarvis Landry move on seems high, which would leave a massive gap in the slot area where the primary number of targets resides in the scheme. Enter: Wilson.

    Garrett Wilson looks to have the ability to lineup anywhere and while his route running skills aren't on par with Chris Olave's, he is still able to generate separation and proves to be an all-around weapon thanks to his short-area accerelation and agility. While he also doesn't seem to have the same top-end speed as Olave, he is clutch at generating yards after catch and contact. He isn't a consistent vertical threat, which I think elevates his stock. DPJ (career 18.8 YPC average) and Anthony Schwartz -- at least on potential -- should fill this role in the offense. I think the biggest area of need is that versatile receiver who can make something happen - it's essentially what they *hoped* Odell would have been. In this class, Wilson is in a league of his own here.

    Lastly, when looking at the gadget-y plays or the "bag of tricks" that Stefanksi routinely dips into, I can see Wilson stepping in and being a major impact player here - again, I'm picturing a healthy and engaged Odell in 2020's offense. Taking all these pieces together, he may be the safest projection pick -- at least of the top WR candidates in the upcoming class. Slot receivers may not be highly drafted but when you look across the NFL and see those guys dominating offense - Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Adam Theilen, CeeDee Lamb, etc. When you look at Stefanski's tendencies, the slot receiver is going to get the highest volume of passes. Instead a perimeter guy (Drake London, Chris Olave), I'm taking Wilson and plugging him into the system Day 1.

    BONUS: an under-the-radar connection here (and I believe someone may have already brought this up)... Wilson is not just a Texas guy, but shares the same hometown and high school as Baker Mayfield. Baker keeps a close connection there and has actually already thrown with him in the past. Baker could throw his opinion into the mix (assuming he still has a high opinion of him) and also receiver the No. 1 WR he needs as a vote of confidence after a shaky 2021 season.
     
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  13. beachbum M.V.P. Manager Steelers

    Loved DPJ pre-season. Picked him up in several dynasty leagues. But he was so disappointing. Targets were there on multiple occasions and he just couldn't deliver. I think the Browns try to upgrade.
     
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  14. IrishDawg42 Legend Manager Browns Buckeyes Fighting Irish


    I agree with beach on this one. My argument lies in the base system Stefanski runs. With a two TE set, the slot is moot. We didn’t have a Z receiver that scared anyone enough to take pressure off the TEs and they were essentially rendered useless because of it. I like DPJ, but more of a #2 WR. Jarvis should have been our slot, but he was not used there, Hollywood was. More out of need to have a legit outside receiver as OBJ was not performing to his potential out of lack of wanting to be here.

    I could easily see the Browns taking Olave at #13 due to his superior route tree over the others in this class. In my opinion, Olave improves the TE position more than any other receiver, which is what Stefanksi wants and need to make this offense successful.

    I know they don’t value the WR position, but they have had an opportunity for evaluation and don’t be surprised if the double down if Jahan Dotson is sitting there at #45. I don’t expect him to be, but he is a legitimate threat at all levels, just as Olave is. It would immediately elevate this receiver group without the need to draft a specific slot, as Dotson can and has played the slot successfully, even if that isn’t his main strength.

    This is dependent on the Browns moving on from Jarvis of course. If they don’t then an offensive tackle is the pick in round two out of need.
     
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  15. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    Kinda tough to grade him when the entire offense -- from play-caller, to quarterback, to offensive line -- had a very poor season. DJP saw only 12% of the teams' total targets but led the team in yardage (16% of total market share), and was second in touchdowns (14% total market share). Those numbers don't support the early notion this season that he was primed to take a bigger role. Tough not to see some of this as the Odell Effect. Had the Browns moved OBJ in the offseason when he demanded the trade, it would have naturally set Peoples-Jones up for more opportunities.

    Keeping his catch rate, TD rate, and yards-per-reception steady, had they even given him the targets OBJ saw early (when he led the team), it's presumable he could have had: 92 targets, 53 receptions, 949 yards, 5 TDs. That's just adjusting one variable (OBJ). Those numbers in a run-first offense with a broken quarterback and a struggling offensive gameplan/coordinator would be considered pretty darn good for a second-year sixth-round pick.
     
  16. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    In a down season...

    Wide Receivers
    Donovan Peoples-Jones: 90.5 rating (53% success rate, 58% comp.)
    Rashard Higgins: 82.5 rating (50% success rate, 53% comp.)
    Odell Beckham: 77.8 rating (50% success rate, 54% comp.)
    Anthony Schwartz: 59.4 rating (38% success rate, 44% comp.)
    Jarvis Landry: 53.1 rating (49% success rate, 58% comp.)

    Tight Ends
    David Njoku: 117.5 rating (51% success rate, 65% comp.)
    Harrison Bryant: 100.0 rating (57% success rate, 65% comp.)
    Austin Hooper: 87.8 rating (54% sucess rate, 60% comp.)


    DPJ was our best receiver and third-best receiving option (excluding running backs). In 2021, he generated a perfect passing rating (158.3) on throws of 20+ yards. In 2020 as a rookie, DPJ generated a 145.4 QB rating with a healthy Mayfield (62% success rate, 71% comp.). I think with a healthy Baker and a focus on getting DPJ involved in the passing game (basically making him what they tried to do with Odell), we're talking about a successful season.

    To be clear, I also don't think a Ja'Marr Chase season is realistic in a Stefanski offense. With 90(ish) looks to WR1, DPJ would need to bump his career 61.5% catch rate up to 86% and maintain his already very high career 18.8 YPC to generate 1,455 yards. That catch rate is over 10% higher than the best wide receivers in the NFL today.
     
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  17. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    Where the improvement needs to be made is here:

    Anthony Schwartz: 59.4 rating (38% success rate, 44% comp.)
    Jarvis Landry: 53.1 rating (49% success rate, 58% comp.)


    And if Stefanski is hell-bent on keeping the 13 grouping, here:

    Austin Hooper: 87.8 rating (54% sucess rate, 60% comp.)

    And I think Garrett Wilson perfectly resolves the issues we saw with Landry last season and what the team intends to use Schwartz like. Definitely something up with Landry, could have been injuries, the offense in general, obviously Baker, the Odell situation -- whatever it was, he dropped from #2 recevier in 2020 (101.3 rating, 57% success rate, 71% comp.).
     
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  18. TopDawg Legend

    We're all in agreement on this, which really makes me question the offense in general. In today's NFL how can a team devalue the WR position? That seems absurd. I don't care that we play outdoors in the north, we still have to be balanced on offense. The value of a great WR can't be understated. Looking around the league it's pretty glaring that all the elite teams have stud receivers on the field. An argument can be made that it's among the most important pieces in building a championship roster. Would the Bengals be in the Super Bowl without Chase? Would the Rams be in the SB without Kupp? Would Rogers win the MVP without Adams? This is how the game has evolved, and to think that we can win a title with "average Joe's" at receiver is impossible for me to imagine. If we do finally invest a high draft choice on a WR, Stefanski is going to have to adapt to the talent on the field, or I don't think he will be around long.
     
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  19. TopDawg Legend


    [​IMG]
     
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  20. SAS M.V.P. Rams Chargers

    Bingo.

    I genuinely have concerns around this, too. Couple of points:
    • Stefanksi's system was needed in 2020 to help rehabilitate Baker Mayfield after a brutal 2019 campaign. And it worked. Baker down the stretch of 2020 performed at or near the top in every category. He - and the team - were poised to take a big step in 2021.

    • Stefanksi's system apeared to be adapting in 2021. Prior to his serious injury, Baker threw for over 300 yards twice - in games where the offense played well enough to beat any team in the NFL but the defense (and heavy-hand from the refs) chalked those up to L's. I think it's a bit unfair to evaluate anything with 100% certainty after the Arizona game when the season was effectively over. However, in the six prior, Baker's numbers would have put him on pace for 67.1% completions, 4,200 yards, 17 TD, 8 INT, and a 97.8 QB rating. Where I would have liked to see growth is in the TD and INT ratios where Stefanksi would tighten up and choose to run the ball in the redzone instead of throwing, despite Mayfield being one of the best QBs in the NFL at redzone efficiency.

    • Stefanksi perhaps has been adapting to the talent on the field simply because he hasn't had a lot to work with. Our best receiver the last two seasons has been Donovan Peoples-Jones, a sixth round pick who is now just entering his third year. The team's insistance on trying to make Odell work obviously held back the team, the offense, and the quarterback and his selfish play clearly cost us two wins in 2021 alone. Jarvis was very good in 2020 but something major was off in 2021. After those three, we've got Rashard Higgins who's spent more time in the dog house and suspended for "team reasons" than he has in the end zone, Ja'Marcus Bradley, and Anthony Schwartz who looks to have been a wasted third round selection. On top of that is the misuse of Njoku and Harrison Bryant over the extremely over-paid Hooper.

    • Stefanksi's conservative system will again be needed in 2022 to help rehabilitate Mayfield and set him up for success down the road. From the business perspective, there's a lot of value in keeping his numbers artificially low, which the current scheme is intended to do. Even if Mayfield is proficient and gets back to his second-half 2020 / first-half 2021 form, we're looking at a guy who's producing around 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. The flip side to this is that the team really does need to see if Mayfield can take the next step in his development, which has been unstable since drafting him, and lead this team to multiple Super Bowls.
    2022 should give us a lot of these answers, but I will continue to maintain that it will tell us way more about Stefanksi as a coach than Baker as a QB.
     
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