I've enjoyed this conversation. Gotta go to work for a bit... As the Browns fans know, I've discussed doing the Haskins plan on their boards....I had originally thought I needed to move Carr ahead of time, but the more I thought it over, the more I liked this plan better.
Alex Smith, without weapons in KC in 2016 3,500 yards 15 TDs...added Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft, KEPT Smith to give Mahomes a year to acclimate...Smith 4042 yards and 26 TDs...traded to Carr had better stats in 2018 with 4029 yards and 19 TDs without weapons..so, the expectations could easily be elevated to that of Smiths numbers in 2017 for Carr in 2019. Smith was traded for a 3rd rounder and Kendall Fuller, a young starting CB...all the while needing to add a contract extension to Smith's contract...So you could easily see a 2nd round value on Carr who is signed through 2022 on a team friendly dea @ $19M(2020), $19.6M(2021) and $19.9M(2022) I really don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Carr is done in Oakland for 2019 if they were to draft a QB in April.
I mean you do and you don't. Carr isn't, in my opinion, a "franchise" QB and he may be desirable this year if you can't get your hands on your top QB option, but next year you are going to have what people are expecting to be a better class. Herbert, and a possible collection of Tua, Fromm, Eason and KJ Costello plus anyone else who pops on the scene and doesn't want to come out the same year as Sunshine down in Clemson... With that many options his value might be lower come next off season simply because of an expected large number of quality rookies. I mean I think Josh Rosen, with his warts and rookie season and all is a far more valuable player than Carr from a trade perspective. The cost is lower and the potential higher... If the Giants gave up more than a 4 to get Carr I think I would be pretty disappointed because he is basically just a placeholder anyway. If you have nothing at the position that's fine and all but if you have a placeholder already Carr isn't much more desirable to me than Tyrod Taylor or some other journeyman bridge.
I really don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Carr is done in Oakland for 2019 if they were to draft a QB in April. In the first 2 rounds, I think you are dead wrong. That being said, I don't think Oakland takes a QB, but could be wrong on that.
I think this is too simply stated. It isn't necessarily he isn't good enough for the Raiders..Jon Gruden has to be in love or he will push him out. Make no mistake, if they take a QB, this is about Gruden as much as anything else.
By not being good enough for the Raiders, I mean he isn't good enough for Gruden. Which is the statement he will make if he takes a QB at#4.
Curious.. Do you really think Hebert currently has a higher draft stock than the 2019 QB class? Where would you rank him if he had come out early? Personally, I would have him behind Haskins, Murray, Lock and fighting for 4th place with Jones... He has to make a marked improvement in 2019 to move into position to be a top ten pick in 2020, imho. 2020 could be a down year for QBs. Things will have to drastically improve(and they probably will) to get excited about any QB in 2020.
Not to be overlooked here...the Steelers got a steal, imho. Nicely done Stopper..I didn't think you had it in you, lol.
I actually wasn't impressed by Herbert but I just keep hearing that GM's are really impressed by him and that there was much disappointment (particularly in the East Rutherford, NJ area) that he returned to school. I made the switch to Haskins as my guy maybe 3/4 of the way through the season. I started paying attention to him after the Penn State game and ended up actually watching a few Ohio State games this year. (Full disclosure I grew up thinking I was a Michigan fan so I don't watch much Ohio State -- mostly because back then the Giants seemed to like Michigan players) I see the potential in Herbert but I don't love his tape. For the record I also don't love Tua, or Fromm and I have never seen Eason take a snap. But I just keep hearing people say "wait for next year all these great guys are coming out!" and wondering if maybe there is something there. I'll get to that class when I get to that class though I suppose.
Not necessarily a bad move for the Broncos either, depending on their particular needs and what the trade market had to offer. I tend to be in the minority on this, but I say to hell with the chart. If you trade down to a point where you can still get what you need, then anything at all that you gain is added value. Passing up the opportunity just because the chart says otherwise would be missing out. So nice job Steelers and possibly nice job Broncos too.
Remember when you traded from 6 to 1 for Clowney, Torgo? NFL mock drafts rarely follow the draft chart.
I missed the Carr conversation (crazy work day) but there's one very important distinction in the math that needs to be pointed out. If the Raiders released him, they'd have $27+ million dead money because his 2019 salary is guaranteed. But if they traded him, the new team would be picking up that salary. It wouldn't be dead money for Oakland / Las Vegas / wherever. There's only $5 million in future amortized bonus that would need to be accelerated to this year's cap. The Raiders would come out of the trade with a $17.5 million cap savings.
I agree 100%, the chart is outdated. I think it rarely is used nowadays. It is hard to gauge a trade worth, no doubt. But jumping from #20 to a top ten pick, even if it is the last top ten pick and only losing your current first rounder is a win in my opinion. There were a couple of guys left at that point that should garner top ten thoughts, to be able to move from #20 was impressive to me..
I've been on both sides of those bargain trades. More often than not, I'm on the "short" end of the chart. But I was willing to do it each time, as that's how the market shaped up in those drafts. I'm also really big on acquiring future draft assets, even though I'll never be able to use them as we reset the whole thing each year.
Actually the Raiders would be on the hook for a minimum of $7.6M... 3 years worth of $2.5M signing bonus and the $100K workout bonus. Being as how the 2019 salary is guaranteed, the new team would/could negotiate how much of that they are willing to pay, then the Raiders would be on the hook for the remaining amount. This year's salary allotment would most likely be negotiated in a trade.
Fully agreed. Moving up that much is impressive. I'm just noting that one team's win isn't necessarily a loss for the other side. It's all in the "utility" of the picks involved, and each team's situation is different.
Pretty sure the workout bonus gets paid by the team he is working out for -- those are like roster bonuses they move with the contact. So in a trade they have 3 years of pro-rate bonus they would eat but that is all.
