From a personal standpoint, the interesting thing with Baker is how this progression has happened and where I have him right now. At the end of last season I tabbed him as a first round pick. Most had him at a third, and I noticed a couple spots that had him in the second, but no one had him in that first round. Now, I have him as the third ranked prospect at his position (with one more round of scoring to go) behind Rudolph and Rosen. The only consistent element throughout? The majority disagreed with me then, and the majority disagrees with me now, lol.
It's too early to look at this as a closed case. Lot's of factors yet to be considered, such as - Mahomes has yet to take over as the starter Trubisky was working with possibly the worst wide receiver set in the NFL (and a bad coaching situation) If Watson stumbles in year 2 he would not be the first player to destroy it as a rookie, then come back down to earth It's really difficult to grade most quarterbacks after the first season. You can look at the recent history of Goff and Wentz for proof positive on that.
I agree. The story is just beginning on the pro careers, but it can't be denied that Watson was looking really good before the injury. He was in charge of that Texans offense and running it up and down the field. They showed, they couldn't win a game without him... Like you said though, many factors to consider. Much depends on the situation the prospect falls into. Trubisky had no WR's to throw to. Maholmes didn't play... FTR: I was a Carson Wentz guy. But the improvement Goff made in year two was very impressive..
I remember we had multiple conversations about Mayfield. The last time we touche don it last offseason we noted how he was projected as a 3rd, maybe 4th round pick with the most optimistic maybe getting him into the 2nd. We thought it was weird. Easy for us to tab him as one to watch to rise to the 1st round now that actually giving a meaningful grade is important. Well we worded it like that at the time but it was clearly meant more like "We just know he's gonna have a 1st round grade everywhere in 8 months".
He wouldn't be the first, but it would very much surprise me...I don't know how many they will win under Vrabel, because they aren't very good.. It might be rough again if they can't stay healthy. They don't have a 1st or 2nd rounder this year, cha-ching, but they do a have a real good duo of WR's. Watson is a born leader. He'll be fine...
Injury is a big one. Can Watson come back from it? Mariota had a nice playoff run but he didn't come back from his injury yet. If he doesn't next year there is cause for concern. Wentz will have to answer those same questions. Bridgewater and Luck have their stories as well. The position is so devoid of talent and then talent keeps getting hurt.
That's the reason I didn't guarantee anything....lol! I know. Watson's injury last season was among the saddest things that happened, along with the Browns.
Now that you mention it, yes, you were on board with Mayfield cracking the first round so I apologize for not mentioning that in my first post. I'm also pretty sure you were on board with Ballage moving up boards swiftly once the off-season testing started and from all of the reports out of Mobile, Kalen is setting himself up to earn some money. I remember a couple of those conversations about Baker and I probably have one or more saved from before I switched the forums. We actually ended up on the subject from discussions we were having about scouting Sterling Shepard. This is actually the second straight year that I went on record with you about a quarterback that was being looked at as a 3rd or later being a prospect that I believed would end up going in the first, the other being Mahomes.
Ya. I was on board with Mahomes as well, just not as the QB1. I think I always had Trubisky as #1 with Mahomes and Watson at 2/3. I could never decide on an order even to the last day. Just so different with many things to love and question on both. I still really like Trubisky but man he doesn't have the help the other 2 have. And of course you know the QB I liked the most the year before. Wentz then proceeded to rise so high it came to we'd have to use the 1st rounder to get him and then so high it had to be done at #2 overall. Now that was a rise from nowhere on the consensus boards.
I know our discussions on Wentz centered mostly around where to place him in the first and we separated on which quarterback should be at the top, with Goff being my preferred option, but you were one of the few on the Carson Choo Choo really early in the process.
lol, I gotta get some positive press in whenever I can. When I'm right, I rarely hear about it. When I'm wrong, you better believe my ears are burning, lol.
Towards the end yes, although I did say despite wanting Carson much more I did like Goff quite a bit as well and that if the Rams made the correct decision at #1, I would be content trading to #2 for Goff. I remember in the previous offseason Wentz was considered an early/mid day 3 prospect. He got upset by Montana and then had a solid season to be considered a mid 2nd rounder near new year's. At that point I knew for a fact a 3rd or even trading up into the early 2nd rounder wasn't gonna cut it if the Eagles wanted him as bad as I did. They needed to use their late 1st and maybe trade up a bit. Then Wentz shot up again almost instantly to top 2 the moment real evaluations happened. The Eagles traded up with Miami and at that point I was banging the table to either another trade up to #1/2 or get Jack Conklin. the top 5 that actually went and Conklin were my top 6 players hands down, not necessarily in the order they went. Many, maybe most probably had 5 of them in the top 6 anyways so it isn't that special, just interesting.
LOL. Tim does it to keep his brand going. I brought it up just to continue the topic and add some to it. A little bit of patting myself on the back but it's not intentional just for that. It's just a very nice byproduct of adding more to the convo. I've busted on tons. They just aren't as easy to remember or as interesting lol.
lol, I remember my whiffs just as much as my home runs. I have to. This damn notebook that never leaves my desk is filled with nothing but grades, and those would be grading myself. And truthfully, I'm probably harder on myself than the people that email or message me telling me how much of a phuck head I am, lol. But all bullshit aside, if I list my hits and misses over the last 5 years, column A has a lot more ink than column B. So long as that remains the constant I will continue to refine the system and stick with it even when I second guess it.
When you watch Mayfield pass the football, it's damn near perfect. Running left or right, or standing firm, or stepping up, he does it all effortlessly, as if it's second nature to him. He knows went to crank it up, when to take some off. He can feather the fade and he can drill the crosser. And he doesn't just find the receiver. He puts it in the perfect spot more times than not....After watching a year of Kizer, it's just exciting to think about the Browns getting a true passer of the football. I don't want to slam Kizer. We all know what that was like...It would be great to get a guy that can give our considerably gifted receivers like Gordon, Njoku and Coleman a shot, not just to catch it, but to do something with it after the catch....I really don't want to get my heart set on any one prospect, but the more I see, the more I think Mayfield is the clear #1....
The Josh Allen Hype is just that... hype. And it's media-driven. Some team that drafts like Al Davis' Raiders of years past will take him, probably in the 15 - 20 range, too. And that former GM will be commenting on another crop of QBs in a few seasons and that team will be selecting another QB in as many years. The only two prospects that will be on Dorsey's radar are Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. They are the only QBs who meet all of Dorsey's criteria.
Most of where the grades I have on Mayfield start to level off is within the structure of 'touch to open', 'touch to arc' and a couple different aspects of progression. There's not a lot to knock on his game and I don't have a score on him in any aspect that would equate to a negative grade. That in itself is a strong endorsement for how well rounded of a prospect he is.
