2018 NFL DRAFT - GENERAL THREAD

It makes sense...A lockdown CB is a tremendous asset, and we got a really good one. Certainly the best available....Chubb would have been a great pick as well, but our needs dictated, and I don't think it was a reach at all...Denver was taking Ward with the next pick if we didn't...

 

@Duff_Beer_Doug I read this, too, and raised an eyebrow at this point. I'll try to dig it up, but the Browns actually led the NFL in off-coverage last season. Routinely, our corners were playing 6-8 yards off-man... hardly "press". I want to say it was close to 70-percent of the time we were in zone.

I get that Ward is a man-coverage guy and I think it was Mayock who said at the time of drafting him that he saw Ward playing more man "on an island" than any other cornerback last season. So maybe Williams just *wants* to run more man/press man coverage and didn't because he didn't have the pieces last season.

 

I think that's the whole point, the defense calls for man coverage, but with lack of personnel to run it, they had to revert to an inferior product. This gives them the best opportunity to do just that after losing out on a couple of key free agents that were rumored to be in play for the Browns earlier. The guys they did pick up were improvements to the backups they were handcuffed with in 2017.

 

I think the only way Coleman makes the team is if they role with 6 WR. Gordon, Landry, Janis, Calloway, Ratley, all make it (barring injury, or other issue). Even then it will be interesting with Janis essentially replacing Louis on ST duties, bc I don't see Corey lining up to make tackles.

 

^^^^^ From Football Outsiders: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Browns' Pass Defense Against:

#1 WR: 22.0% DVOA (28th)
#2 WR: -7.5% DVOA (12th)
Other WR: -5.1% DVOA (14th)
TE: 28.0% DVOA (32nd)
RB: 25.1% DVOA (30th)

So as expected, we were a sieve against opposing tight ends (hello, Genard Avery), opposing running backs, and lacked a true cover guy to mirror opponents' #1 guy. Against the other receivers on the field, we were a Top 15 defense.

The more you dig into the numbers, as I mentioned earlier, this pick was right under our nose the whole time (just like the Mayfield pick).

One more note... a common comp on Ward is Chris Harris Jr. (Denver). Harris (and the Broncos) were the 2nd (-33.7% DVOA) against #1 WR. If Ward can become that... look out.

 

Interesting... I'm definitely not a Coleman guy (thrown the 'B' word out there a few times now), but I still think that based on his draft positioning he'd be one of the most likely guys to make the final roster.

I'd guess: Landry, Gordon, Coleman, Janis, and Callaway with a maybe on Higgins if we roll with six guys.

Ratley seems like a practice squad dude. Louis should be cut (too unreliable) and our futures guys (Williams, Hazel, and Board) are nothing to write home about... I'd look for us to probably pick up and keep a UDFA through camp in lieu of those guys.

 

Not draft-related, but worth noting.

LOL... in fact, the three waves were Kasen Williams (WR), Matt Hazel (WR), and Kai Nacua (FS). So two of the three dudes just mentioned.

 

This guy's winning us Super Bowls.

 

Like I have said many times before, I hope the Browns nailed the draft.

With that being said.

Has anyone heard a GM after their draft say... "I really fucked up." "I didn't expect that to happen." "He wasn't on top of our board, but I went with my gut." "I know he wasn't the BPA, but we had such big needs and we became desperate."???

This draft is going to come down to 2 players for the Browns. Mayfield and Barkley. If Mayfield is very good or better... it's a success. If he isn't and Barkley lights up the NFL it's a fan base losing failure.

I made a bet 15 months ago with my son that Cleveland will play in the Super Bowl by Feb 2022. I don't like to lose bets, especially to him.

 

Let's talk about Genard Avery... this dude is a BEAST.



Here's his game film against "National Champions" UCF:



You don't see a ton of splash plays, but he does a very good job containing McKenzie Milton (fast dual-threat QB) when asked to spy and some of his best tape is when they blitz him off the left edge.

The one thing you don't like to see is he seems to get tied up by blockers (a big one around 7:45 mark for a long TD run). Guy's big and a former power-lifter, so that could be more to do with technique (and short arms - 31") than his actual power.

It will be interesting to see if we use him more as a MIKE (Hue Jackson's press conference indicated that's where he'd start) or if they give him looks at rush end like a Nate Orchard replacement.

 

I expect Coleman to make a big step up this season. I've heard good reports on him really carrying a chip this offseason. Having a QB that's wildly inconsistant, ill timed and innaccurate, like Kiser was all season can really mess a WR up. I think it got in his head....No doubt Coleman dropped a couple big ones that was a major contributor to 0-16. With much more steady play from the QB position on the 2018 roster, I think Coleman has a great chance to silence his critics and start living up to his lofty draft status...So yes, I'm making excuses for Corey Coleman, but I still see a talented player that has been snakebitten with two fluke hand injuries, and shitty play from his QB's....

 

Had him as my #5 linebacker and the only shift down for me would have been if I listed Nwosu or Carter in that group -
https://live4sportnetwork.com/forum/threads/2018-linebacker-class.10882/

He's my favorite pick for the Browns in this draft.

 

Don't mean to be argumentative, TD, but Coleman's main issues weren't what he did (or didn't do) on the field. His biggest problem is staying on the field. Two years in the league and two broken hands that kept him off the field. Can't blame that on Kizer.

 

You aren't being argumentative, just a misunderstanding....I first referenced the drops when he WAS in there, and gave my theory. Then I finished with;

I'm not blaming Kizer for Coleman's injuries and missed time at all...I was just trying explain why I'm giving Coleman a pass. The inconsistant QB play certainly hasn't helped him. And I think he will step up now that we have upgraded the QB's, at least as far as the drops are concerned. Definitely a big year for Corey, and I expect he'll be under the microscope...Obviously, he needs to be ready to play on Sunday. That's just a given..Another injury and a bunch of missed games could be the end of his run in Cleveland.

 

Coleman is an interesting case study. He's only played in 19 games (18 starts) during a stretch of 1-31 football for five really bad quarterbacks (Griffin, McCown, Kessler, Hogan, and Kizer). He's had just over 17 games worth of snaps in his time here.

Analytically, he passes the tests well:



Regardless of QB quality, he's never been a plus-50 percent reception rate guy. He really looked good early on as a rookie doing one thing - running deep go routes. That's inherently a 50/50 kind of play. Perhaps his role in the offense will be best used as a a deep threat, which would free Gordon up to be more the primary target on the intermediate part of the field and Landry taking up the short- to intermediate-range passes.

Maybe his ceiling is that of a Travis Benjamin then? So when not the #1 guy (as Benjamin was in 2015), his seasonal averages should look something like: 40-50 receptions, 500-600 yards, 4 touchdowns? Disappointing for a first round pick, sure, but not a complete bust... especially if he's a guy who requires at least one more defender on him freeing up guys like Gordon, Njoku, and even Landry to make plays.

If Coleman is fifth in receptions on the Browns this season (behind Gordon, Landry, Njoku, and Hyde)... I'm okay with that.

 

Well this division is growing w TE talent....Pitt has 2 really good ones in McDonald and James, Balt just drafted 2 w Hurst being a legit playmaker and Eifert may be healthy this yr...Williams better figure it out real quick

 

I disagree, this draft is coming down to ONE player...Baker Mayfield

The naysayers can claim all as loud and often as they want that Mayfield would have been available at #4...Doesn't make it fact.

I also don't for a minute believe that ANY GM in this league believed there were 4 QBs that were equally graded. If they aren't equally graded and you have an opportunity to take the one you have at the top of the list, you don't make any hesitation, you get your QB. I don't care what other player is available. NOW, if we are talking one of these off years where you are in need of a QB, but one really isn't ranked highly enough to give it strong consideration, then of course, you thank your lucky stars there is another player at another position that is rated highly enough to not make you look foolish. That certainly wasn't the case in 2018 IN MY OPINION. I want to make it clear, I am not demanding everyone take my opinion as me stating a fact that Mayfield was a clear cut player at the top...it is my opinion that the Browns choice was an easy one at #1, I've been stating it for quite a long time. No other position player would bump that decision in my opinion.

So, it really doesn't matter, imo, what Barkley does, he is a player on another team and I wish him all the best. This draft comes down to one player for the Browns and that is Baker Mayfield, I personally don't think there was any other choice in this draft for them to make at #1. I made another choice in our mock draft earlier, I took Barkley at #1, then Mayfield at #4, but that's because I knew my peers so well, there was 0% chance Mayfield wouldn't be available at #4...Again, I don't believe that is the case in real life. If Dorsey and Co. had him as the clear cut guy, my suspicions are that other clubs did as well. If the Browns take Barkely, the Giants or Jets would have taken Mayfield I believe.

 

Which brings into question how the offense is going to distribute the football.

In 2017, Hue Jackson was an imbalanced 62/38 pass/run coordinator with a Top 5 ground game and one of the worst quarterbacks in the franchise's history. Oof.

In 2017, Todd Haley was an imbalanced 59/41 pass/run coordinator. Over the past three years, he's been a 60/40 pass/run coordinator. Despite this team's verbal instance on being a "pound the rock" organization, I have to believe we're in for a heavy pass dosage this year with upwards of 575+ drop backs.

What's unique is how involved their (PIT) running backs were in the passing game, where they accounted for 15% average of all the targets over those three years. Last season, with Duke Johnson accounting for a whopping 93 targets, the running backs saw an average of 22% of the total pass targets.

It would not be a shock to see Hyde/Chubb/Johnson get approx. 115 targets in the passing game, assuming a 575 attempt season. One would think Johnson could see the most looks, but that situation could get murky - Johnson has shut down his extension talks, reportedly, and is miffed the Browns selected Chubb in the second round. Carlos Hyde saw 88 targets last season (13% of SFO total targets), so he could step into that role pretty seamlessly.

Assuming 575 total attempts:

RB: 115
Sacks: 30
Remaining: 430

Landry received at least 25% of the targets while with Miami (110). Josh Gordon should be the primary playmaker, but not necessarily highest-catch guy - assuming 20% for him, he'd be left with 86 targets. Tight ends weren't a big priority in Haley's offense, but he didn't have good ones - Njoku and DeValve are both quality guys who combined evenly for a woefully low 12% total target season in 2017. Assuming an uptick for both, Njoku 18% - (77) and DeValve -15% (65).

TE: 142
Gordon: 86
Landry: 110
Remaining: 92

That's not a lot of left-over looks for Coleman, Callaway, or the other receivers (less than 6 per game).

 

NY media was buzzing about NYJ sniffing up Mayfield. He wasn’t gonna make it out of the Top-5. I think Cleveland got the best QB of the draft. Pittsburgh got the second best QB. Jackson could end up being the third best (not sure on this one). That scene is a bit more hazy, but as I said earlier, historically, only 2 or 3 QBs (per draft) pan out for greatness.

AFC NORTH!!!

 

I made each pick for the Browns as they came up based on who I'd take if I were them. Mayfield and Avery matched.