Andrew Luck was "can't miss". In five seasons, he's been a poor QB on a hot garbage team. Like I've maintained for a while... let's follow the Seahawk model by building a great team and then let our third-round pick run the show. #TeamCody
#TeamCody Some more interesting analysis... [twitter=https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/846385871578419200][/twitter] Cody Kessler was 15th in the NFL in yards-through-air versus yards-after-catch. Bob Griffin was 29th. Carson Wentz was 37th. Cody Kessler was 15th in the NFL in passes-thrown-short of third down. Bob Griffin was 39th. Carson Wentz was 30th. In both metrics, Kessler was better than NFL average. The apple of Cleveland fans' eye, Carson Wentz, was very below average and Bob Griffin was right-out garbage. The take-aways: 1. The F/O knows what they're doing (famously saying Wentz wasn't a "Top 20" guy 2. Reports that Ken Kovash, the analytics guy in the F/O was more responsible for Kessler's drafting than Hue Jackson's are sounding more and more plausible, especially given that... 3. Hue Jackson is a terrible evaluator of QB talent (remember, the earth "moved" when he saw Griffin throw) And that's the troubling thing... this entire regime is setup to attack things in a collaborative effort. Hue Jackson has been vocal about him needing to be "the guy" to pick the QB, and he's clearly not as onboard with Cody as the F/O is (the benching in a winnable game when he was playing well against Baltimore is all the evidence of that we need). The analytics and numbers simply do not match the narrative Hue has laid out for Cody (that he doesn't attack deep, is too short, lacks the requisite arm strength). Could we see a situation where another fissure is created between head coach and front office? Or is Hue just a great actor going along with the script?
From Hue at the Owner's Meetings... Better than last year? That means he's at a minimum, a Top 15 guy. QB Rating: 15th TD Ratio: 3.1 (25th) INT Ratio: 1.0 (4th) Completion %: 65.6 (10th) YPA: 7.1 (17th) Actually, when you look at his splits, he's even better. Kessler's "poor" numbers (TD ratio and YPA) were a product of a 1-15 football team - not going to put that on a third round pick who wasn't even supposed to play. Kessler's TD ratio in the redzone was 31.3%. The NFL average last season was 23.0%. Matt Ryan (the season-leader in this stat at 7.1) was 24.5%. Tom Brady's was 32.3%. My dudes... forget "game-manager". I genuinely am starting to believe that if he stays healthy, Kessler can be a Top 10 QB (or better). #TeamCody
That's the key. Under the circumstances involving the 2016 Cleveland Browns, Kessler held his own. There is no doubt. And he deserves a shot at battling for the QB job.....But what if he gets hit really hard again? I think THAT is the main concern Hue Jackson has. He basically came out and said a couple weeks ago that he doesn't think CK is big enough for the position with his, "The QB must be over 6'2" " remark, at the Combine....Hue has given every indication that he wants a bigger, more rugged, "AFCN type" QB.... Our coach doesn't believe Cody can handle the punishment that QB's take in this league. That's the impression I get...
Jeez, statistics can be used for whatever you damn well please. I didn't read most of the tripe above, after reading the statistics presented, themselves. Just a reminder: Yards in Air vs Yards after Catch can be just as indicative of a QB that throws to blanketed receivers as it is of a QB who throws downfield. In fact, it's probably far more indicative of the former. In order to top out in that metric, all you have to do is throw a few yards to a receiver who's tackled or led out of bounds immediately, and pick up none extra. A shitty QB can do exceedingly well in this metric. And, next to it + a QB who throws short of the sticks. What the fuck conclusion does that even lead to, other than evaluating why a QB might have had success or not in a particular offense (see: CHI with two QB's at the bottom, NE predictably at the top, etc)? It's certainly not indicative of their ability, individually. Moreover, what do these two lists represent, together? Mariota and Winston show that they really don't mean anything, being high on both lists, despite having seemingly conflicting data sets (yards through air, throws short of the sticks). Just because you can measure something, doesn't necessarily mean you should. And just because you can draw a line between measures, doesn't mean they're significant. Edit: before anyone misunderstands me, I'm making no comment whatsoever of Kessler's abilities. Rather, I'm pointing to the lack of weight the above stats carry in evaluating any QB's abilities.
I sure wuldnt want SAS running my team...Kessler is a top 10 QB, Cook stinks, Garrett is a once in a decade type player, Tabor is the top CB(ran a 4.75+ 40), D Walker was faster at 280 lbs, etc...let me ask you this question right now...if Cincy came to u and said we want Kessler for the #9 pick...ur answer wuld b?
probably somethin like; "Umm yeah...we're gonna need ya to go ahead and throw in a future 2nd rounder as well. Mm kay. So if you could just do that. That would be great."
It doesn't tell the whole story, it's just ONE of the metrics that can help fill in pieces of the story. It's relevant, even if you can't draw a conclusion on the whole. Have you been following the entire thread, or did you just jump in and see this post and think that post led him to the conclusion he has a possibility of growing into a top ten QB based solely on this new info?
And your reading comprehension leads me to the conclusion I wouldn't want you running my team either as it plays to your ability to retain everything needed to make educated decisions. He didn't say Kessler is a Top 10 QB, he stated if all things being equal and Kessler improves, like was stated is what is expected by Hue Jackson, then that ALREADY puts him as a top 15 QB...then he went on to state, if he can stay healthy all year, he CAN BE a top 10 QB... Then, I don't think he has ever stated so frankly that Cooks stinks( though I think we can all surmise that is in fact his evaluation), what he has stated is that there are several RBs he holds in a higher regard, and BECAUSE of his off field incidents, I would tend to agree. I agree on the overstatement of Garrett being a once in a generation player. SAS and I disagree on a great many things actually, but he isn't the only one ballooning up the inevitable state of Hall of Famer to be Myles Garrett, before he ever steps on a professional teams practice field. As for Tabor, I can't say I have seen him champion Teez as the best CB in this draft. He may have put him on one of his lists at some point, but I don't recall him arguing any points to that effect..so I really can't speak on this one. However, I think SAS has his beliefs and he actually backs up those beliefs with facts and reasons why he feels that way...which is a lot more than I can say for some others that simply want others to change their minds and stop giving their opinions with one liners that they don't agree and never explain why they disagree with anything tangible.
I've been reading pieces here and there, and I recognize that this isn't the only case presented for Kessler. I also wasn't making a comment about Kessler. I was simply saying that these statistics, in almost every context (and specifically in the context in which SAS used them), are useless. I think I provided at least some of the logical support for that.
From SAS Re: THE DEFENSIVE BACKS @top dawg... Lattimore seems to be shooting up most peoples' draft boards these days, not saying it isn't legitimate. Tabor is still probably my top pick, even with some of the off-field issues. The Twitter issues aren't of huge concern to me... Crowell went through that pain early in 2016 and was welcomed back by everybody. Fighting with teammates? Didn't Steve Smith Sr. do that every day? The pass on the drug test is the only major concern for me, but as long as he's not entering the NFL in any stage of the drug program, he should be fine. It's pretty easy to pass the one-time a year test when you know it's coming. Should actually be interesting to see if his name is one of the ones leaked every year at the Combine for failing the test there. If he is, that would knock him down my board. I'd take either of them at #12 if they're available today, though.
"if" is the biggest word in the dictionary....hey more power to you guys if u feel Kessler can lead a franchise...he showed me very little...you can blame not having weapons or what not but you guys pumped up Pryor and Barnidge so there's 2 legit receiving threats in your minds...you guys also felt the running game was top 10 so how does he not win 1 stinking game as QB? The division was on the weaker end in '16...what's gonna happen when the division bounces back this yr? Kessler is a good solid backup just like Hoyer...can win a couple games if needed and manage the game..I know SAS shows all these stats but when you watch him play he doesn't have franchise QB screaming at you
So you are arguing the validity of the stats? I'm just not understanding your argument here.. I know you stated you provided some logical support, I'm just not sure I agree. If you were taking one single game and stating that, then yes, I agree these stats mean very little. But if you are taking their season as a whole, then I think it is relevant in whether or not a QB has an ability to help their receivers in either aspect...either yards through the air OR yards after the catch. A QB can "lead" his receivers in either category in order to help those receivers elevate both statistics. If they are consistently bad in both, I can ascertain that the QB in question cannot do that, but rather throws to the body and will lower both stats. As for throwing short of the sticks, I agree, it could be attributed to the offensive scheme, in which case these statistics could definitely help the front office realize they may need to make a switch. By studying film, they should be able to make the decision on whether that change needs to be made at QB or Offensive Coordinator.
I'm not arguing the validity of the stats in themselves - I'm sure they're accurate, and thus, valid. I'm arguing that there's absolutely no relevance, here - even more so when taking SAS's use of then into account. In respect to your evaluation of the YIA vs YAC metric, a QB cannot score poorly in both categories. These categories are measured as percentage of their overall yards, thus they will be on either one end of the spectrum or the other, as both categories must add up to 100%. This is why SAS's assertion that Kessler ranks "higher" on this list than others is asinine. But, if you wanted to follow his potential line of logic, which is that ranking higher on the proportion of yards through air vs. yards after catch is a good thing, you have to take into account the fact that a contested throw, or a throw to the sidelines, results in YIA, not YAC (this factor among others). Hell, look at some of the top names on this proportion - Gabbert, Goff, Moore, Barkley, McCown, Osweiller... Not great company. Of course, that doesn't invalidate it entirely, and there are talented names high on this list. For example, Mariota is high on this proportion - if you've watched Mariota, you'll see a high number of accurate, contested throws, or accurate throws to the sideline. They also have an offense that sets up downfield passing with a power running game (this lends to my point that these stats tell you about an offense, not necessarily a player). But you would only know these things by watching him - otherwise, these stats lump him in with the above names, which anyone who has watched them play recognizes isn't accurate. So I fail to see how this stat makes the case for Kessler, at all. And yes, if you use both statistics, or even (to an extent) individually, you can draw some conclusions about a particular offense. But drawing conclusions about an individual quarterback just isn't supported.
That was as of 2/21. Tabor's been knocked down my board for the same reasons as Cook (who was my #2 to start the eval process) - terrible times and some character concerns. Tabor doesn't have as many concerns in that department as Cook, but he doesn't offer top-notch athleticism to offset it. I still think Tabor will be really good, but his teammate Quincy Wilson, has taken the top spot for me. I really like Lattimore, and would take him over Wilson, but the soft tissue injury (hamstrings) worry me from a longevity perspective. Basically 1A and 1B. If it were a post-season contender making the pick, I would take Lattimore (as I expect Tennessee will) since you feel comfortable with his health in the short-term. My Top 5 Cornerbacks: 1. Quincy Wilson 2. Marshon Lattimore 3. Gareon Conley 4. Desmond King - although a lot of analysts are suggesting he converts to safety at the next level 5. Cordrea Tankersley 6. Sidney Jones - if King is a safety, it would bump everyone up one spot
For starters, I'm not saying that because he places well in yards-through-air stats that he's a great QB. I'm saying that the stats and facts disprove some narratives about him not through the ball deep enough. You either throw longer passes or throw shorter ones. It's less of an indictment of the quarterback, but rather the offense. The fact that Kessler throws deeper - on average - than many of the "big name" guys disproves the notion that he's a short-yardage passer. The fact that he completes nearly 66% of his throws doing so is what proves him to be a good quarterback. Gabbert is first on the list, but offers only a 56.9% completion statistic - meaning he's either inaccurate, throwing contested balls that fail, or a little of both.
here's the top cover guys in this draft 1. Marshawn Lattimore 2. Gareon Conley 3. Marlon Humphrey 4. Adoree Jackson 5. Chidobe Awuzie Sidney would have been #2...
You're confusing these stats, SAS. It's percentage of YIAir vs. YACatch. Maybe this will help: LOS is the 20 yard line. A QB throws the ball 20 yards to his receiver, who takes it 60 yards for a score. In that scenario, a QB's number on that metric and chart you provided (from a third party) would be 25%/75%. That would put him at the bottom of your list. But I think we can all agree that hitting a receiver 20 yards downfield is a throw of considerable length. Now, take the same conditions: LOS is the 20 yard line. A QB throws the ball 20 yards to his receiver, who is tackled immediately or pushed/led out of bounds, adding 0 yards. In that scenario, a QB's number on that metric and chart you provided (from a third party) would be 100%/0%. That would put him at the top of your list. The length of the throw didn't change, but the result according to this metric absolutely did. I recognize that this is an isolated incident - one rep, rather than hundred(s). But, both of these scenarios are likely to play out over the course of a game. In neither case does placing higher or lower in this metric give you any indication of the QB's ability, as you claimed. To your point that he does throw deep, dispelling a misconception - again, this stat has no bearing, as the above details. The second stat, in regards to throws beyond the sticks, is also sincerely flawed, and doesn't lend to your point. If it's 3rd and 20, and I complete a pass that is caught beyond the marker for a first down, I qualify for that metric. If it's 3rd and 2, and I complete a pass that is caught beyond the marker for a first down, I also qualify for that metric. Again, it tells us WAY more about an offense than it does an individual player. Some offenses mandate longer throws, some mandate shorter ones. Some offenses set QB's up in favorable down and distance, some set them up in unfavorable down and distance. I won't deny the accuracy of the numbers you provided, but they don't provide any context in which to judge a player on their own, for which you made the case. Edit: I want to point out that I understand you're trying to make a larger point, and have done so throughout the course of the thread. I just don't think the given information lends to your point regarding Kessler, specifically.
You are blowing this character issue WAY out of control but ur in favor of bringing Gordon back when he has been suspended 4+ times or more(doesn't matter the reason) it falls under character issues...here is a quote that may help you from a guy who has actually been around Cook for a few yrs and currently has his brother on the commit list in '18 "Look at the situation. He did nothing wrong," Fisher said. "I mean, he was there and actually, he was diffusing a situation. That's him. You're never going have those issues with him. He's a great guy, a tremendous character guy and I never had any issues with him. "If I got on him, if I challenged him, it was always, 'Yes sir.'"
