2016 NFL Draft - The Quarterbacks

I don't think that's fair to Wentz at all.....

Leaf was a tool. True story.... In the pre-draft interviews back in 98, the Colts GM (Polian?) asked Ryan Leaf what he would do first if Indy selected him #1 overall, and he replied "I'd go to Vegas and party like a rock star for a night"...smh Wentz isn't stupid like that. And besides, didn't Leaf develope his addiction issues after he retired?

 

Frankly, I have a difficult time understanding how EITHER of these two can be compared to Peyton Manning. *SCRATCH*

 

To be clear, I wasn't calling Wentz stupid or a tool. By all accounts, he interviews well and carries himself well.

The comparison is between the more refined but "lower ceiling" (Manning/Goff) to the higher ceiling, more physical tools (Leaf/Wentz).

 

I don't like to invite comparisons to HOF players, which I why I avoided Manning until he came up multiple times.

From a purely prospect and in no way trying to lay out what their careers would hold, 10/10 would have to go with Goff/Manning as the same prospect, for the reasons I listed: cerebral, shotgun-oriented, great pocket awareness, etc.

Wentz and Manning have hardly any comparison outside of relative size (6'5" 230 for Manning, 6'5" 237 for Wentz).

 

lol! Seriously....My comparison started and ended with with how Carson Wentz looks. I'm talking about frame....length of neck.....physical features. The eye test.

I'm not comparing anything beyond that.....I was just in agreement with Irish that when you see him on the field in uni, he resembles Peyton Manning....Nobody would say the same about Goff....

 

Crazy Crex's $.0.02 *WRITE*

I did get a chance to go back and review some more film on Wentz and Goff.

I'm still not sure which one I would prefer at this point.

I think Goff is better at presnap reads than Wentz, but am not sure how much of that is related to the fact that Goff took most of his snaps from the shotgun or pistol formation and not from under center.

I think Wentz has a slightly better pocket presence though not by much. Probably mostly due to the fact I saw Wentz hang in the pocket longer and take a hit after making his throws. (Perhaps more durable than Goff). To me Goff bailed more often when the big hit was coming.

Both can sling the ball well. Agree with SAS that Goff's throwing mechanics are better developed at this time. Though I think Wentz has more touch on the deep ball.

Wentz is better at running the play action fakes than Goff. Probably due to the style of offense run by either team.

Goff is a better/more accurate at throwing on the move than Wentz. Mostly due to more refined footwork IMHO. Wentz just didn't seem to set his feet and throw with as much accuracy as Goff when rolling out or on the move.

Admittedly I like Wentz's size from a durability standpoint especially in the AFCN. Though Goff has room to grow as well.

I guess it will ultimately come down to whomever Hue and his staff think is the better fit for what they want to do offensively.

I am not sure how much weight can be placed on the fact that Wentz played on a national championship team for his 5 years at NDSU.

I just hope that the Browns are able to keep a solid o-line in tact so that either guy has an honest chance of succeeding. I am still having visions of Tim Couch and the 5 construction cones the Browns trotted out as an O-line. *HELP*

 

The very first re-born Brown . . . . . . . Jim Pyne. (and we wonder why Couch got mauled)

 

Stop Beating Goff! #4

Jared Goff has 9" hands. I have 9.25" hands. I don't think my hands are any bigger or smaller than normal. Jared Goff played three seasons at an FBS school and surpassed several PAC-10 records with the hands he has today. It makes me think... whatever Goff has that makes up for his hand size must be truly awesome.

In truth, it's a bogus claim. There simply aren't many QB's since 2008 (when they started officially measuring hand size) that have "small" hands. That doesn't mean that all small handed QBs fail because of that. As with most things physical, I assume smaller-handed individuals may be smaller-framed (not the case with Goff at 6'4").

Goff actually has a stronger arm than Wentz (measured at 58 mph velocity versus 57 mph velocity), so his hand grip hasn't really impacted that. Unless you want to argue if he were sporting 10+ inch hands, he'd be throwing in the low 60's.

The whole argument harkens back to 2014 when Teddy Bridgewater measured in at a "paltry" 9 1/8" versus Johnny Manziel's 9 7/8" hands. Was hand size a factor in picking Manziel over Bridgewater at #22? If it was, it was wrong.

Lastly, here's some analytics to show there's exactly dick and squat to correlate the success of QBs to their hand size.

http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2016/3/4/11161580/quarterback-hand-size-a-statistical-cautionary-tale

Yes, in Cleveland in December is going to come with challenges. But the guy who drafted ol' Teddy (Rick Spielman) said when asked about hand size this year:

I was able to find Goff's fumble number as 23 in three years, a higher amount that ideal but not quite at a Kurt Warner-esque pace (.62 per game versus .82 per game). And if you look at it by season, 10-9-4, Goff has either had his hands grow in size, or he's learned to compensate for having dainty little mitts and made ball security a priority.

Either way, if the extremely nit-picky "small hands" is the biggest knock you have against a potential franchise QB, you've got yourself an elite prospect.

And if you put a capable offensive line in front of said franchise QB, maybe he won't be taking jarring hits in December that cause him to lose his grip and fumble in the first place.

 

That whole effort to "get the Browns started" in 1999 with that current player draft was a joke. It was like like starting a large bank and going around to all the other banks and requesting their 5 worst employees, so you can pick from that to start your own operation...Jim Pyne was the #1 overall! WOohoo! We also "drafted" Antonio Langham in that fiasco, which makes him a great piece of Browns trivia as the only guy ever drafted twice by the Browns.... I remember the NFL thought they helped Jacksonville and Carolina "too much" in their respective beginnings. Especially when both teams made it to the conference championships in their 2nd year.....So when the Browns expansion team was formed in 99 they didn't get jack squat.....Couple that with "masterminds" Carmen Policy and Dwight Clark heading up the draft and we were doomed way before it ever even started.......

 

Pump the brakes there, TD. Carmen Policy had absolutely not a phuquing thing to do with how the NFL decided to jump start the "new" Browns. Truth be known . . . he actually got the Browns into the playoffs with Butch Davis in 2002 even with the shit house talent that he was allowed to assemble.

 

oh god, i forgot that great 9-7 team led by William Green....Well I guess if you want to give props to Policy for that, then okay. Is that all you were expecting when we hired the 49ers brass? My thoughts were that it became crystal clear that Bill Walsh was the brains in SF, and the castoffs we got were complete pretenders..I think most Browns fans were expecting a bit more than back to back #1 overalls ,Tim Couch and Courtney Brown. At least I was.....And I never said Policy and Clark had anything to do with the "return of the Browns" plan as set up by the NFL, other than being in charge of the draft....

 

Not sure what it means, but I heard from someone in the know at halftime of the Brown/Pitt game, Sashi Brown was showing people his new title in the organization on his phone....they said he is extremely smart, but has a bigger ego than LB

 

If you recall, I compared Wentz to Manning in College...Don't try to turn this into something it isn't. If you watch their film side by side, their passing game is eerily similar. From footwork to mechanics. The HUGE difference is Wentz ability to run, not just escape a pocket as Manning was able to do, but actually run. That is something he will have to give up in the NFL, so it is a moot point, except for the rare occasion that it is absolutely needed.

THAT was the extent of the comparison. It was also pointed out that his football IQ is what will ultimately decide his future success, not the fact he looks like Manning on the field..

If you want to talk about past things I wrote, at least quote it so it can be seen for what it really is.

This argument has grown tiring, both sides keep repeating the same arguments...while, you Sam, belittle mine..I at least let you say yours in peace.

You can say all you want about Wentz lack of competition, it is indisputable and I ALSO argued that point against him...everyone KNOWS that is true. Yet that is what you hang the entire argument on.

You speak of his lacking mechanics, it simply isn't accurate. I have been talking about his good mechanics since before the conversation got hot...Now everyone has caught up outside of this board and agree that his mechanics are special. He isn't merely a 6'5" 137lb QB, he is much more than that.



Truth is we won't know how either of these QBs can read a pro defense until it actually happens. No college film on either one of them will give us that piece of the puzzle. No amount of speculation can/will tell us that. It's a moot point from either perspective.


Just as YOU can't say his abilities will make the fact Goff has NEVER played a game under 50? a moot point...It is extremely relevant. It is something he has never done, in his life...in fact the two games that he played in the 50's, @Oregon and @Oregon State, he was not very good. It makes it a huge red flag.


This argument has gone on and on and there isn't anything that can sway one argument to the other because there are too many unknowns with both of these players. My only hope is that this staff uses every resource to try to decipher which one is the most likely to succeed, as there is no exact science.

 

LB?

Also... why is this on the QB discussion thread? Was the title: "Jared Goff, FQB Cleveland Browns"?

 

Not trying turn it into anything. You merely compared a FCS prospect who's size and athleticism are his winning attributes against an FBS prospect who's intelligence, mechanics, and pocket presence are his winning attributes... and then said the FCS prospect reminded of Peyton Manning from a mechanics and throwing perspective.

I have not seen that one time in looking at film. I also can't find a single scout, analyst, opinion that says his mechanics look like Peyton Manning's. Moreover, aside from the few folks who're beating Goff so badly they've gone blind, everyone seems to believe that Goff has the better mechanics and throwing acumen.

Actually, that quote was more about the second comp. to Manning, not yours.

How am I belittling your point? I mean no disrespect, buddy. I enjoy our debates -- especially the heated ones. *THUMBSUP*

Not at all... I've got a laundry list of issues with Wentz. I can recite them all, if you'd like the exhaustive set.

 

I gotta agree with Irish that we could debate the merits of each prospect until we are all blue in the face. It really doesn't matter until we see what they can do at the next level. Obviously the clubs are privy to the good inside info, so we just have to trust that the Browns do the proper research and make the proper call....For all we know, they have Connor Cook targeted in the second rd and they plan to take Joey Bosa #1....A similar strategy worked for Oakland to some degree, so it's not out of the realm of possibility...

Most here, including myself think it's got to be Wentz or Goff at #2, but it's just speculation for now.....I'm simply implying that, to say one of these guys is a star and one is a dud, at this point in the game, is a complete stab in the dark....Even the best GM's in the business don't know for certain who will excel at next level...Only time give us those answers.

 

This is where you run off the rails SAS...

Again with the competition argument...FCS vs FBS, you fail to mention that FBS scale as far as Goff is concerned is one of the lowest defensive competition in that entire FBS, I'm curious why you fail to mention that at all in your arguments? Do you have an answer, or will you just skip over that point?

"You merely compared a FCS prospect who's size and athleticism are his winning attributes"

"an FBS prospect who's intelligence, mechanics, and pocket presence are his winning attributes"

Truth is, Wentz is a 4.0 student, who not only scored a 29 on the Wonderlic, but has been lauded for his football knowledge in interviews. You mention 2 things as his only attributes which is negligent in your argument.

You speak constantly on his mechanics...I understand you say you see it on film, but you must not be watching very closely. I don't site my arguments aligning with the pundits, but why would you go against what everyone is saying? I'm not the only one in the nation that thinks Wentz mechanics are way ahead of schedule for a college QB prospect, pretty much everyone but you sees it.

Wentz has a high release point that is accurate at all three levels. His release is quick and his footwork, while inconsistent, is very good overall. I don't know exactly what you would want short of perfection....which Goff is far from perfect in this aspect. Goff also has very good mechanics, but not on every play. He suffers from lapses, just as any young QB will. That is consistent with almost every VERY GOOD QB that comes out of college. You will rarely find a perfect QB...In fact, I don't know that there has ever been one.

Then you aren't watching film at all, or cannot process it. There footwork, release and follow through are almost identical.

Again, I don't regurgitate online analysts, because most of them are merely regurgitating each other. They rarely come out with a thought of their own..and I am not about to say things, just because they do...I'd prefer to write about things that I PERSONALLY see.

Carson Wentz is the most gifted QB physically in this draft. We don't know the intellect aspect, that is the only wild card here. If a team can judge that part of it, then he can be a franchise prospect. If it doesn't show up in the interviews, then he is a 2nd round prospect at best. That is the long and short of it.


And again, I am not beating Goff up over his mechanics in the least. I have praised him for it..I am very worried about his lack of experience in weather that can become commonplace in Cleveland as early as the 7-8th week of the regular season, let alone the prospects of a very poor weather home playoff game. If it turns out he CAN'T play in 10? weather..I sure as hell don't want him with the 2nd pick of the draft, because he will certainly be asked to play in that weather in Cleveland. That is something we will not know until he is thrown out on the field and asked to do it...It's a big question mark that YOU can't answer.

I enjoy our debates, but when you turn from factual statements to:

You take an entire view and throw it out the window, because there are guys that fail with bigger hands..."It's silly"

What isn't silly is that QBs that actually make it in the NFL and have those small hands struggle in cold weather. All of the small hand QBs that have any semblance of success, play in warm weather climates or domes and as soon as they step into the cold, their skills diminish. That is relevant, not silly.

Your apparent rendition of the tape...

The tape is what took Wentz to the front of the line for me. Wentz was not even a consideration for me until I saw that tape you call a negative. Back when I started my evaluations, Wentz was called a 2nd round prospect at best...I had him below; Goff, Lynch, Cook, Hackenburg and Jones...simply because I didn't expect a FCS prospect to be taken seriously. The tape is what changed my mind...and if you recall, it changed my mind BEFORE any of the national pundits jumped on MY bandwagon.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rm7Kf4AzyNs&feature=youtu.be&t=446

https://youtu.be/rm7Kf4AzyNs?t=500

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wynwchyYAfs&feature=youtu.be&t=22

Tape doesn't lie.

Wentz has a compact delivery and a strong arm, so he can release the ball quickly. That's a plus. It helps him throw the ball from different angles.

However, in the three clips above, I see the same thing again and again in his film and it's horrific mechanics. It's long, awkward pauses in his throwing motion. It's a double-clutch without any foot work.

These are things he gets away with because he played in the FCS... not because he's a good QB prospect.

You can be first place in the Carson Wentz camp, pal. I'm certainly not going to try and take anything from you.

To me, he's just go a lot further to go and a lot less time to do it in than someone like Goff who's already a better passer and better tactician of the game.

 

You're aware that Carson Wentz played in a dome, right?

Wentz threw 14 INTs in his last 358 attempts (3.9 INT rate), versus Goff who threw 20 INTs in his last 1,038 attempts (1.9 INT rate).

Wentz had 10 fumbles (in a dome and with large hands) in his last 559 touches (1.8 fumble rate). Goff had 13 fumbles (with his small hands in a mild climate) in his last 1,149 touches (1.1 fumble rate).

If small hands and weather are an issue, it's not showing up now.

Moreover, once Wentz steps outside of a dome, even with his larger hands, he's going to have a higher INT and fumble rate.

 

Again, Wentz played in Fargo, ND indoors. Who's to say he won't suffer in Cleveland weather, too?

All things equal, in this case, I take the guy who's more developed as a passer, has a better command of an offense, doesn't stare down his receivers, has expert pocket awareness, and who did it against better competition.

Especially since there's no correlation between hand size and success!