Who to keep?

12 team PPR, 1/20. Start QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, Flex

League was originally a redraft, this is first year we can keep up to 2 players at cost round player was drafted in last year +1 (10th round for fa pickups)

Derrick Henry 3rd
Russel Wilson 5th
A.J. Brown 10th

Brown is tempting in PPR but Tannehill turning back into a pumpkin would hurt him and relying on two players from that offense is a little scary too. Russ was #3 QB last year and pretty reliable bet he’ll be top 5 again. But QB is pretty deep, guessing probably only Lamar and maybe Mahomes will be kept.

Thoughts?

 

Is there a cap on the number of years you can keep a player?

 

It goes +2 in subsequent years.

So I could keep Henry in the 3rd this year and the 1st next year and then not again, whereas Brown I could in theory keep through 2025 before I had to throw him back.

I have the 12th pick, snake draft, if that influences your thinking at all.

 

That would have been my next question.

That’s an interesting wrinkle...

And this would apply to both keepers I assume?

Let me think on it a bit and I’ll give you my opinion.

 

Correct. Thanks.

 

A.J. Brown is a definite out of the 3 based on the information you gave. The fact that he can be held onto for multiple seasons and could eventually equate to a second or first round pick in PPR leagues makes him an easy pick to like. He's rocking out at about a late 3rd/early 4th round selection in redraft PPR so getting him at over double his ADP is a pretty sweet deal. I can dig the concerns about Tannehill but Brown's upside is remarkable and the chance at an upgrade at passer in the near to immediate future may be higher than the perception.

The choice between Henry and Wilson is what I'm left with. At no point will Wilson become a first round value in PPR so having him in RD5 this season is nice, RD3 next a lot less and RD1 two years from now makes him more or less a one, maybe two year hold.

Henry will go in the first so getting him at RD3 is solid value in the immediate, and depending on your rules for trading keepers (based on another owner's slot to hold him in if traded in the off-season) there could be a solid return in moving him if you feel less comfortable with keeping him as a first rounder next year. He's going to have four more years in an offense that will favor his abilities and even with a drop in TDs the value this year and potentially for the next few is rock solid.

I'd likely go with Henry and Brown. You may not get Wilson back but you have a chance to acquire a solid pair of players on the turn from RD1 to RD2 and go back after a QB at the next turn if you feel you have no choice. It also gives you more trading power to have either of Brown or Henry on the block compared to Wilson (I'm going to go ahead and assume the new owner would take on the +2 rather than the preseason original RD).

Depending on the other keepers, and what round the end up in, you might be able to play the board nicely at every turn to limit holes between lots of options being selected.

 

That’s pretty much where I was leaning. Thank you so much for the thorough analysis to reinforce the decision.

 

My opinion is pretty much what Tim said and pretty much for the same reasons he said. You were leaning that way already and now you have 2 leaning the same way.

 

Brown is tempting in PPR but Tannehill turning back into a pumpkin would hurt him and relying on two players from that offense is a little scary too.


It's a gamble Dog going with 2 Titans.........BUT they drafted Isaiah Wilson 1st for a reason......he will help the "O" Line.

 

Full squad after the draft:

QB D. Watson
RB D. Henry, A. Jones, D. Harris, T. Pollard, J. Jackson, J. Williams, B. Love
WR AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, M. Brown, D. Slayton, C. Claypool
TE G. Kittle
K J. Tucker
D Baltimore

 

Don’t you need another QB?

 

Not til week 8. There’ll be a decent streaming option available.

 

Solid lineup.

If AJ Dillon is on the wire you might want to keep a close eye on him. I expect his role in GB to increase rather quickly and he likely is the long term handcuff (potential replacement) for Jones.

 

Nah pretty much any RB worth even a potential damn was drafted, and most of them way earlier than I’d’ve taken them. I had every intention of taking both Dillon and Williams at the R11/12 turn, but he went 3 picks before me. So I settled for Williams and Justin Jackson.

 

16 team 4 keeper start 1 qb 2rb 2wr 1rb/wr 1k 1dst. Out of the following who should I keep (only listed guys that would be considered). Draft is snake style and I pick 15 but I do notmhave a first round draft pick.

Justin Hebert qb lac
Josh Allen qb buf
Mike Davis rb atl
Cam akers rb lar
Phillip Lindsey rb hou
Ke'shawn vaughn rb tb
AJ Brown wr ten
Tim Patrick wr den
Mike Williams wr lac
Tyler Boyd wr cin
Robert Tonyan te gb

 

Akers, Brown, and the two QB’s

 

I probably have to agree with him. Akers and Brown are locks. Out of the rest the best value are Allen and Herbert. Anyone else you can get a few rounds after either. I wouldn't fault you for dumping Herbert for someone else you are high on but if you are high on them you can just draft that guy sooner.

 

TY I was debating between Brown and Davis and was already leaning to keeping the 2 qbs just because with 16 teams good qbs become hard to get quick.

 

I gotta ask, how did you lose our first round pick?

That is a tough break with a 4 keeper 16 team league and no first round pick. Especially when, imho, your only choice is to keep your backup QB as one of your 4 keepers. Go heavy on rookies and hope for the best!

 

So you don't have a pick until #18 overall? That's rough. I don't think you have any RB's worth saving. Possibly Akers, but he's risky IMO. Running game is where you need to focus on draft day....If it were me, I'd keep AJ Brown, Boyd and the two QB's.

I actually traded Akers for Boyd early on last year, and I was crushing it on that trade until Boyd got injured late in the season.