Week 1: Bills @ Ravens

I figured I might as well start this one off. Buffalo has made some bold moves this off season and could be contenders once again as the rebuild. This means they're still finding their way, but the infusion of new talent can be dangerous. Despite drafting Josh Allen with the 7th overall pick they instead named Nathan Peterman (last year's 5th rd pick) as the starter for this game. He led Buffalo QBs is passing stats this preseason and earned the spot. However, having seeing this defense in action means it's going to be a long day on the field for Peterman....or very short depending on how bad it gets. Not starting your rookie first rounder and future franchise QB against a filthy defense in their own home on opening day was a wise choice. If disastrous, it could set his development back for a long while.

Peterman however should not be take lightly and could prove to be gamey. Our defense is fast and tough, but still not perfect with many young players that can commit enough mental and rookie errors to keep Buffalo in the game. I won't be counting on that. I think our defense has displayed more swagger than butterflies and will continue that week 1. It will be nice to see what four full quarters of Flacco & Co. are capable of.

I expect a solid win: Ravens 28 - Bills 13.

 

Peterman will last till halftime, then they will turn to Allen because the Ravens will be dominating at the half. 3 Turnovers and a 27 to 3 lead is my prediction. The Ravens could get a 40 burger at home in this one.

 

I will be stunned if this game is within 17 points. If you trade away a boatload to move up and take a QB 7th overall, its because you think he's the face of your franchise for the next decade. I don't care if they think he's "not ready", throw him in and let him take his chances. The team has ZERO chance of winning any road game week-1 with Nathan Peterman as its QB. The guy threw 5 INTs last year in his only appearance after Taylor was benched mid-season for mediocre play. He can only run a dink and dunk offense.

Allen may be raw, but there are probably 5 humans on the planet with an arm like him..........one is a retired football player (John Elway), and the other three are undiscovered living in 3rd world countries. Its insanity that the Bills aren't starting him this Sunday. With Allen they would at least stand a chance. With Peterman, they have none. Ravens will stack the line and squat on him all day.

 

Could be that they're giving Peterman his courtesy start due to his seniority. We'll see how long that last. Ravens are traditionally good against rookie QBs and probably better against 5th rd journeymen.

 

From Rotoworld:

Buffalo Rank @ Baltimore Rank
7 Spread -7
16.8 Implied Total 23.8
17.9 27 Points/Gm 24.7 9
21.7 16 Points All./Gm 18.9 5
63.8 14 Plays/Gm 65.9 9
66.2 30 Opp. Plays/Gm 65.3 25
47.9% 2 Rush% 43.6% 12
52.1% 31 Pass% 56.4% 21
44.4% 24 Opp. Rush % 41.6% 11
55.6% 9 Opp. Pass % 58.4% 22

• After the Ravens Week 10 bye in 2017, Alex Collins averaged 19.8 touches per game and was the RB10 for fantasy purposes over that span with five games as the RB14 or higher in weekly PPR scoring.
• Collin’s six rushing touchdowns also matched Todd Gurley and Latavius Murray for the most in the league over that end of the season stretch.
• Buffalo surrendered a league-high 28.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields in 2017.
• 62.5 percent (20-of-32) of the offensive touchdowns scored against Buffalo last season were by opposing running backs, the highest rate in the league.
• 36 percent of opposing drives reached the red zone against Buffalo in 2017, the highest rate in the league.
• The Bills posted a league-best 3.8 percent touchdown rate to opposing passers in 2017. League average outside of Buffalo was 6.9 percent.

Trust (spike starting production): Alex Collins (entering the season as the lead back while Marshal Yanda returns to the offensive line. Buffalo has made some personnel changes in attempt to alter their inability to defend the run from a year ago, but their first-team run defense still had leaky moments this preseason while Collins should be fed opportunity to put that to the test as a huge home favorite)

Bust (underperformance): Joe Flacco (the Bills should allow more passing touchdowns naturally this season if they are going to keep allowing so many red zone opportunities, but the strength of the Buffalo defense is still on the back end and this sets up as a low-volume, yardage game for the Baltimore passing attack), John Brown (defending the deep ball was a strength of this secondary a year ago, ranking 13th in completion rate on throws 15+ yards and ranking second in percentage of receiving yardage allowed on 20+ yard completions), Kelvin Benjamin (no Jimmy Smith on the field is a plus for him, but with low expectations for his quarterback play, you have options elsewhere on your roster), Charles Clay (most of this Buffalo offense is hands-off to start the year and while the Ravens overall numbers versus tight ends were poor, they were carried by a few spike games as they only allowed five or more catches to five tight ends all season and a touchdown in five games to the position), Nathan Peterman (his play in the preseason was far better than anything we saw from him on the field as a rookie, but he’s not an option here on the road against a strong defense)

On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s baseline): Michael Crabtree (Buffalo has capable defenders to keep his line in WR3 territory, but where they struggled the most in 2017 was stopping the underneath/possession archetype that Crabtree fits), LeSean McCoy (the touches will still be here to keep him in the lower-RB2 bucket he was drafted in, but attached a large road underdog doesn’t get him any favor beyond a blanket touch count)

 

I won't be on much during the game, but my hopes for a Ravens blowout have been extinguished due to the monsoon I'm hearing about. That level of potentially sloppy play usually helps the team perceived to be weaker.

I'm hoping to see a great running attack (especially since I'm starting Collins). The passing attack was already likely to struggle against a good Bills secondary, but now it may not get off the ground.

Need to see a lot from the defense also. Let's go, Ravens.

 

Trench warfare. Definitely levels the playing field but still makes for some surprise pass plays and capitalizing on mistakes and loose balls.

 

The rain certainly does "dampen" expectations.

 

What streams are you all using? Anyone?

 

Boyle already making a difference.

 

http://liveball.tv/buffalo-bills-live-stream/

 

Passing attack looks good! John Brown!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Flacco looks great. The receivers/TE's look great.

 

Anyone? Anyone?

 

Good opening drive. Was an issue last year. Collins punching it in was a nice cap to finish. Rain is definitely affecting their play, but so far is going their way.

 

That's a nice defensive stop.

Don't see the rain holding them back on offense. At least not yet.

 

OK. The rain affected that drive.

 

Crabtree with 2 drops.

 

Ok. Sign Brown to a long term deal. He & Flacco totally on the same page.

 

Figures. I draft Crabtree thinking volume and Brown is still on waivers. WTF is up with Crabs?

Great start to the season regardless.