One thing that I have suspected for a while that the coaching staff has hinted at... they will be willing to overload the roster in certain position groups if those guys are the best players. In other words, they won't necessarily keep 3 QBs or 6 WRs or 10 offensive linemen just for the sake of having those numbers. If they decide a fifth interior linebacker is the best player for that 53rd roster spot instead of anyone else at one of those offensive positions, so be it. With that in mind, I suspect that the roster will NOT be 25 offense and 25 defense (with the 3 specialists rounding out the 53). I'm anticipating 26 on defense and only 24 on offense. The first hard call... farewell, Taylor Heinecke. He has done enough to show he's suitable as the #3, but my initial projection has the team keeping just two on the roster - in spite of the rule allowing a third QB to be activated. Losing the QB3 is the price the Falcons will pay to overload on the defensive line. So... only Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix, Jr on the roster at quarterback. John Paddock runs the scout team offense as a member of the practice squad. At running back, I have the quartet of Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Avery Williams and Jase McClellan. I have McClellan beating out Carlos Washington, Jr. for that last spot, but it may in reality be the #3 role. The trick is that while Avery Williams is listed as a running back, his primary role is kick returner. Also noteworthy... the team has broken away from having the dedicated fullback. That lead blocking role will mainly be filled by Charlie Woerner this year, as the #2 tight end behind Kyle Pitts. Whether they keep three or four TEs is still up for grabs. I'm picking a bit of a surprise here and projecting four, with Ross Dwelley as the #3 and John FitzPatrick making the roster as the surprise fourth. FitzPatrick had a rough start to training camp with several drops in practice, but he has caught 5 of 7 targets in the two preseason games, including one that set up a touchdown run - and FitzPatrick put down the hammer of a block that opened the lane for Carlos Washington to get into the end zone. That extra TE might come at the expense of sixth rounder Casey Washington, who ends up on the practice squad for this mock roster as the team keep only five wideouts: Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud, KhaDarel Hodge, and Chris Blair. Blair has simply been too good to keep off the roster. Also remember that TE Kyle Pitts typically splits out wide, and RB Avery Williams also took snaps split out as a receiver under head coach Arthur Smith. Rounding out the offense, all of the linemen have been terrific. I'm going with nine of them to make the roster, but it's a difficult call. The top seven are easy: Jake Matthews, Matthew Bergeron, Drew Dalman, Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary start, with Ryan Neuzil as the backup center and Storm Norton returning as the swing tackle. And now it gets hard. With the Jacksonville exhibition game remaining to settle things, I'm jumping the gun and tagging Julien Davenport and Kyle Hinton taking the other two roster spots, with JoVaughn Gwyn, Andrew Stueber and Barry Wesley making the practice squad - if they clear waivers. That selection could easily get thrown out the window during the Jaguars game, but for now that's my best guess. Davenport has played both left and right tackle in preseason and has been solid in pass protection, while Hinton has plowed holes for the run game at guard. There's a risk of losing Gwyn to waivers, so the team might opt to keep him on the roster. We'll just have to see how things go against Jacksonville. So... 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 TE, 5 WR, 9 OL. That's 24 on offense, leaving 26 for the defense. I'll work from back to front for that side of the ball. I'm thinking safety DeMarcco Hellams won't be week-to-week with his ankle injury. The team hasn't put him on IR yet as that would take him out for the season, but I'm pegging him to be put on IR exactly one day after the final roster cuts. With that in mind, yes, he will technically be on the initial roster, but I'm not counting him. Someone on a one-year contract or on their final contract year who has 4+ vested years (no waivers) will be temporarily released at the final cuts. A day later, Hellams goes on IR and that other player gets resigned. So ignoring Hellams and the temporary shuffle, I'm looking at a quartet of Jessie Bates, Justin Simmons, Richie Grant and Micah Abernathy at safety. I'm not 100% sure Abernathy is a lock, but I think he has shown enough. Natrone Brooks was THE star of the Ravens game for Atlanta's defense. If he does it again this week, he probably forces his way onto the roster. Otherwise, I still have him as the odd man out - the seventh cornerback in a six man group. Antonio Hamilton, Sr. and Kevin King join A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes, Clark Phillips and Dee Alford on the roster. If he clears waivers, Brooks makes the practice squad. If Brooks balls out again in the preseason finale, he might easily make the roster. But how do they fit him in? It's possible he replaces Hamilton, but it's also possible that all three of Hamilton, King and Brooks stick, with fourth safety Abernathy being dropped to the practice squad. King has suitable size to play safety, so I wouldn't be surprised if he cross-trained as emergency depth - especially since his most likely role would be as a dime back anyway. The four interior linebackers are obvious: Troy Andersen, Kaden Elliss, Nate Landman, and rookie J.D. Bertrand. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least two of the others on the practice squad, but I don't see the team fitting anyone else on the roster. Under other circumstances I would expect the team to keep five in the OLB/edge group. But not counting Bralen Trice (IR), I think this year it will only be four: Matthew Judon, Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie, and James Smith-Williams. The disappointment is that former third rounder DeAngelo Malone is on the way out. He has been a key special teams player in preseason (with four special teams tackles against Miami), but on defense he has dropped to last unit on the team's depth chart. That's not a good signal. That leaves room for 8 defensive linemen. That's a LOT for a base 3-4 defense, but that does indeed seem to be the way this roster is shaping up. The depth in the D-line group is truly that far ahead of where it was just two years ago, when the team ended up having a six-pack of career projects and rejects combine for over 1200 snaps on the line. Now? Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata are obvious starters. Second rounder Ruke Orhorhoro-your-boat and fourth rounder Brandon Dorlus are easy picks, along with last year's third rounder Zach Harrison, who likely starts. Ta'Quon Graham wasn't a lock coming into OTAs under a new coaching staff, but he has shown that he's now back to full speed and strength in recovering from a bad 2022 knee injury. He was an emerging star on the line before he got hurt - and that was in a scheme (under Dean Pees) more like this year's system than what the team played last year under Ryan Nielsen. I'm getting the impression that he made it. Ditto for Kentavius Street. The Falcons traded for the veteran lineman before the trade deadline last year, and he has thrived in the new system. The surprise of the group is veteran Eddie Goldman. We've made it to the final preseason game, and he hasn't retired (again) yet. Listing at 325 pounds, he's the only true space-eater in the group. He'll be a rotational piece for run-stopping, but that's an important role. It's scary to think that there are still four more players in the group, and that just two years ago not only would all four have been strong candidates to make the roster, but two of them would also have been starting by the end of the season. The hardest cut is sixth round rookie Zion Logue. Figure him to be a lock for the practice squad, if he clears waivers. That leaves the three specialists: kicker Younghoe Koo, punter Bradley Pinion, and long snapper Liam McCullough. If fans were concerned, they seem to be ironing out whatever went wrong in the Ravens game, when Koo sent three field goals wide left. The team just had a scrimmage session for a practice ahead of the final exhibition game, and every kick attempt was good. All of this is obviously a way-too-early projection that will change with injuries in the final game plus roster moves made by other teams at the roster cuts. But keep an eye on TE John FitzPatrick, CB Natrone Brooks, WR Casey Washington, DT Zion Logue, and all of the offensive linemen outside of the top seven. Good or bad performances by them in the Jacksonville game could be enough to change the projections listed above.
Update after watching the final exhibition game live... I'd need to suffer through the game again to peg down more details, but my immediate reactions: Natrone Brooks balled out again. The Falcons should find a way to keep him on the roster. To me, the path would seem to be Micah Abernathy to the practice squad - keeping only 3 true safeties until DeMarcco Hellams returns in midseason. Until then, I would have Kevin King cross-train as the emergency 4th safety. He has already practiced playing the deep zone in quarters coverage anyway. Casey Washington showed enough. He flipped the script for me with two strong catches. He makes the roster, as I don't think he'd clear waivers. And while John FitzPatrick also had some flash moments, I don't think the team would be in danger of losing him if they dropped him to the practice squad. So that one is a simple swap - Washington in, FitzPatrick out. The last two offensive line spots are still up for grabs. Andrew Stueber got a good look at right tackle, but I'm not sure he won the spot. It's close between him and Julien Davenport for a fourth OT spot though. It's even closer between Kyle Hinton and JoVaughn Gwyn in the interior. Hinton has played better in the run game but has had a few penalties. Gwyn hasn't been as good at opening holes, but he can also snap the ball.
Skimming through it again... Kevin King actually did play at safety, not just in "quarters" assignments. So it's quite possible that the team came into this game looking to see if keeping 7 cornerbacks and 3 true safeties is feasible. I say it is, and if I'm picking the roster, that's it... Natrone Brooks makes the 53 along with King, Antonio Hamilton, Sr and the obvious four (A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes, Dee Alford and Clark Phillips III). I don't want to pick on the prospects who gave up a couple of big passes from Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones. The prospects had no chance. It's not just that you had Trevor Lawrence throwing to first rounder Brian Thomas against third and fourth string prospects who are simply hoping to make the practice squad. Jacksonville also used this week as a rehearsal for the coaching staff and pro scouts. They actually did game film review and put together a bit of a game plan specifically meant to attack what they had seen from the Falcons defense in the first two preseason games. I mention this because of one particular play call that Lawrence and Jones both used successfully. They had the WR on the right side of the field run a basic crossing route, with the RB running a short route to the right side. If you know the defense is playing a pure vanilla zone, this is a simple play call designed to beat it. When the WR cuts left and leaves the CB's zone, the CB releases him and takes responsibility for the RB (an eligible receiver) entering his zone. The defenders covering the middle zones now have responsibility for the WR. When Jacksonville used it in their opening series, it meant that veteran starting QB Trevor Lawrence was throwing to a first round WR with 4.33 speed (Brian Thomas) against a pair of inside linebackers who are not expected to make the roster at all. Mac Jones used the same play successfully later on. When I watched it live, I thought the CB missed the assignment, but skimming through it the second time I did see the second guy entering his zone. So if it really was a keep-it-simple zone call, then it wasn't the CB's fault at all. On the other hand, I will call out one defender for one particular missed assignment. Late in the third quarter, Mac Jones gave the ball to WR Austin Trammell on a reverse. (Wait... #2 QB is still playing at the end of the third quarter of the final preseason game? And they're running a reverse?) Falcons OLB DeAngelo Malone had contain. The reverse was running right at him. It was his opportunity to make a monster play with a big hit that would make all the highlight clips. Instead, the reverse ran right AROUND him. He wasn't even able to redirect the ball carrier. I already had him not making the roster, but now I wonder if that play takes him out of contention for even making the practice squad. He was drafted for Dean Pees in 2022, wasn't really a fit for Ryan Nielsen last year, and hasn't stepped forward at all under Jimmy Lake and head coach Raheem Morris this year. I'm not sure I see much point for him or for the team in keeping him around on the practice squad. He'd be better off trying to kick-start his career elsewhere. I'm also going to make it "official" for my projections: WR Casey Washington did enough to snag a roster spot. He only had two receptions, but they were significant. And I don't recall one of the four missed targets offhand, but the other three were a throwaway in his general direction, a pass batted away by a defender, and blatant pass interference that didn't get called. In other words, he didn't look bad at all, even though the numbers weren't outstanding. TE John FitzPatrick had two targets - one became a highlight reel play when he hurdled the first would-be tackler. The other target was a drop. He's potentially the #4 TE on a squad that doesn't play many multi-TE formations. So... Washington on the roster, FitzPatrick on the practice squad. If I had to go based solely on what I have seen in preseason, I'd be inclined to keep Jovaughn Gwyn over Kyle Hinton and Julian Davenport over Andrew Stueber for the last two OL spots. But in both cases, it's really, really close. I'd want to keep all four around if I could. Gwyn is the #3 center in addition to playing both guard spots. I haven't seen Hinton snap the ball, but Gwyn was a guard in college, so it's not like Hinton couldn't cross-train and become a center if needed. (Backup center Ryan Neuzil also moved to center as a member of the practice squad a few years ago.) Davenport has played both LT and RT and been solid in pass protection. Stueber is less experienced overall but has played guard and right tackle. So who has been better? The coaching staff will have tough decisions in both cases, and I suspect that their non-public performances (the scrimmage this week and the joint practices with Miami) will be big factors. I still think it's 8 defensive lineman, 4 ILBs and 4 OLB/edge. OLB prospect Bradlee Anae stood out in this game, but I don't think he made the roster. Likewise, ILB prospect Donavan Mutin played the entire game and racked up a ridiculous 18 total tackles. But he's not going to beat out the top four ahead of him. I also have to say I was impressed with RB prospect Spencer Brown, who has only been with the team for two weeks. He has played with the last units, but he has made the most of it - 15 carries for 77 yards in his two preseason appearances. I'm wondering if he has done enough to stick with the practice squad and get a longer look. If it was up to me, he'd be there even ahead of Carlos Washington, Jr. Brown made decisive cuts and hit the holes with authority.
It will also be an eyebrow-raiser for Falcons fans because the Falcons didn't actually play preseason. Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier, Charlie Woerner, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud and the entire starting offensive line played a combined grand total of 0 preseason snaps. Ditto for the projected starters on defense. So we have absolutely no idea what to expect from them. I'm always skeptical, because the Falcons always seem to play the first month like they're still in training camp. But... new coaching staff this time around, so who knows... Along those lines, I'm most nervous on the defensive side of the ball. Jimmy Lake is known for more zone than Ryan Nielsen was, and that type of system depends on a lot more tandem play than man or man/zone mixed systems. It's a new system for everyone, and two of the starters just arrived last week. If they mess up their communications and release receivers to nobody like the backups did in preseason, any of the Pittsburgh quarterbacks would be fully capable of making them pay for it.
Over the weekend I saw two blogs (probably both from before the final exhibition game) that projected safety Dane Cruikshank to make the roster. That's an interesting thought, but I don't agree. The reports on him in practice were good, but he simply can't stay healthy. He went on IR twice in 2020, once in 2021, missed part of camp on the non-football injury list and then went on IR later in 2022. He spent 2023 on the practice squad with the Titans, then signed with Atlanta in May. He did play the Miami game (the first exhibition), but he was either banged up in that game or in practice the following week. He missed both the Ravens game and the Jaguars game due to his injury. I haven't mentioned him in the position battles because I expect he'll be an injury settlement. He might be an upgrade over Micah Abernathy. That's hard to say, as fans weren't able to attend practices at training camp this year. But it's really hard to see the team holding a roster spot for him if he's already banged up and not able to practice during week one, especially knowing that they'd have to cut someone at another position to make room for him. I certainly respect one of the bloggers who projected him to make the team, but I just don't see that happening.
On the Falcons team site, staff writer Terrin Waack took her turn at posting a roster projection today. It's interesting, and she commented on the same difficult last decisions that everyone else projecting the roster (and the coaching staff, obviously) has faced. I thought she did an outstanding job with it. One thing that jumped out at me is that she pegs OG Kyle Hinton for the eighth - and final - spot on the OL. In my mind, he and 2023 sixth rounder C/G Jovaughn Gwyn are in a battle for the last interior spot, and it's a really hard call between them. I initially pegged Hinton as winning, but Gwyn also plays center, Gwyn seems more likely to be plucked away if the team pushes him through waivers, and specifically in the preseason games Hinton has drawn a few flags. But Hinton was also a bulldozer in the run game, and I only saw him in full contact mode in the games - the practice session at the high school that was open to the public was still in the first week of training camp, so it was still non-contact. I didn't get to see the joint practices, the scrimmage practice, or the rest of the training camp sessions. The team's staff did get to see a lot of those sessions. Terrin has had a much better look at Hinton than I have, and she says he's tops on the keeper list. I've been back and forth between them, so she has just settled the issue once and for all - or at least until tomorrow, when the team settles it for real. One thing I disagree with is the notion of keeping only the eight linemen. Under the more recent rule changes, one of the extra active players on the game day list is only allowed to be active if there are at least eight offensive linemen. When there were only 45 or 46 actives, everyone typically kept seven linemen - the five starters, the backup interior guy, and the swing tackle. Having an extra active player overall allowed only if there's an eighth lineman means that the extra lineman is the freebie. But you can only take advantage of that if you have eight healthy linemen on the roster. And to me that screams having at least nine linemen overall so that eight can still be active even when someone is banged up. So Terrin might easily be right and the team might go that way, at least for week one. But if it's up to me I'd keep a fourth tackle along with a fourth interior guy. That's where the Stueber/Davenport battle comes into play. (Julien Davenport is a veteran who has played both LT and RT in preseason. Andrew Stueber is a much younger prospect who has played guard plus some time at RT. Between them, I've gone with Davenport on the roster and Stueber on the practice squad.) But Terrin also said dropping Gwyn was a really, really hard call for her. Knowing that the team is focusing on keeping the best 53, that opens up another possibility that I had not really considered too seriously before... if the coaches feel that Hinton and Gwyn really are the "best of the rest", they might keep both on the roster and drop both tackles. Another interesting call that she makes is that she has the team keeping OLB DeAngelo Malone purely for his special teams prowess. That could indeed be the case - in the Mike Smith years, we always seemed to have that LB who was here purely for special teams purposes. Malone had 4 tackles in coverage against Miami, added another against Baltimore, and added yet another against Jacksonville. He has been that kind of ace for special teams, and I noted that his special teams play was something that stood out in the Miami game. So I can potentially see him sticking. She could easily be right about that. The catch is that she dropped WR Chris Blair to make room for him, keeping only the five WRs. I have a hard time with that. And it's not just the way Blair came on strong as a receiver during the exhibition games (and that he has drawn raves from teammates). He is also tentatively a key special teams member himself, including working as a jammer on the punt return unit. I don't know who else the coaching staff has in mind to fill all the various roles on special teams coverages, but dropping one potential core special teams member to put in another isn't a significant gain. To me this is just another reason to keep the #3 QB on the practice squad rather than the roster. And this leads to the hardest call of all. She has the team keeping Taylor Heinecke. First, let's recap the new rule: this year you can actually keep the third QB as a practice squad member and have unlimited activations, meaning that you could actually bounce him up to the roster every single game without taking up a regular roster spot. BUT... as a practice squad member, he's still a free agent and can be signed by another team at any time. So do you take that approach and risk him? Terrin doesn't want to risk another team signing him away, so she's keeping him on the roster. I absolutely agree with her that he's probably gone in less than 24 hours if we cut him, and to that end I suspect that the team is working the phones right now trying to swing a trade so that they get something in return. (If they couldn't trade him and simply released him, I'd sign him to the practice squad in a heartbeat - and still pay him the equivalent of his regular salary. But I'm thinking it's nearly automatic that other teams have his agent's phone number in hand, waiting for the instant that he's released.) She joins the other two staff writers - and me - in projecting that the team actually keeps 8 defensive linemen. It's a lot, and that's not even counting James Smith-Williams, who is listed in the OLB group but has also practiced at end in certain packages and formations. But the coaching staff has said they want to keep the best players even if that means overloading one or two groups. There's no doubt about it that this DL group is worth the overload. It's insanely deep. Like me, she has sixth rounder Zion Logue going to the practice squad to open the season. I think he has a solid future with the team, but with so many talented players already on the roster, he'll have to wait his turn. The only thing that I found odd in her writeup was that she didn't mention CB Natrone Brooks at all. If she intends to try to get him through waivers and onto her mock practice squad, so be it. But I would still have thought she'd write something about him not being on the roster. She did, however, mention that if injured safety DeMarcco Hellams (who is on her list of 53) goes to IR, cornerback Kevin King might count as the #4 safety. I have that in mind as well, and that is exactly how I'm fitting Brooks in on my version of the roster. Terrin might say that I'm cheating by not listing Hellams, but my take is the way to make that happen is to briefly release a veteran with no accelerated cap consequences - perhaps DT Eddie Goldman - and then resign him when Hellams gets put on IR, and my list reflects the aftermath of that - Brooks on the roster all along, Hellams on IR with Goldman getting a day or two off. Of course, all of that is based on the assumption that Hellams does go on IR and is not just a day-to-day thing. But my immediate thought at the time of the injury was "at least two months". So... if by any chance Terrin Waack ever sees this, great job with the article! And all of your other work for the site, for that matter. I'm becoming a huge fan!
interesting follow-up... apparently the league notified teams in July that the new 3rd QB rule was NOT going to be in effect for 2024 and that the QB3 would have to be kept on the 53-man roster, but since that was in the middle of the "dead" time between OTAs and training camp, some teams didn't get the communication in a timely fashion. So the story is breaking just this week. The NFLPA rejected it. It's not the league or the owners, but the players union that blocked it, presumably on the grounds that it would enable teams to keep a player off of the roster. To me that's a bit of a crock... there will still be 53 players on the roster. And if an extra guy is able to get unlimited elevations - especially if it's an "extra" elevation that doesn't count as one of the team's two standard call-ups per week, then the union would actually be hurting the players by rejecting it. You'd have an extra 32 players potentially getting regular game paychecks each week instead of practice squad pay. I don't think it would impact Terrin's projected roster at all, and it doesn't impact mine. But it's interesting...
Apparently the union didnt want teams to stash players on the PS when they should be on the 53... not sure why they would care that much. Now teams, not all, but a lot, should carry 3 QB's. QB is a position that you must absolutely have 3 ready at the drop of a hat, so I dont understand why this is so complicating or muddled. Why dont they just set the rosters at 55 and be done with it? Is there a good reason to write 53 in stone and not just add 2 more? What gives?
Terrin nailed it! The Falcons did keep Taylor Heinecke, and they did NOT keep CB Natrone Brooks or WR Chris Blair on the roster, while they DID keep OLB DeAngelo Malone, presumably for his special teams prowess. Terrific calls, Terrin! They kept the fourth safety Micah Abernathy instead of Kevin King, opting to keep just five corners with King as the odd man out. That part was a surprise. DeMarcco Hellams has already been announced as IR / designated to return. I got it right that they did keep nine offensive linemen. And the big decision between Kyle Hinton and Jovaughn Gwyn for the last interior line spot turns out to be... both. They dropped both candidates for the fourth tackle spot instead (Julien Davenport and Andrew Stueber). I'm hoping that Davenport and Stueber can both stick around on the practice squad, as Davenport had a strong camp/preseason and Stueber showed a lot of upside and versatility. Jase McClellan did win the battle for the last RB spot. He was listed behind Carlos Washington on the depth chart right up to the end, so that wasn't a certainty. And... yes, EIGHT defensive lineman. Now the big question is whether Chris Blair and Natrone Brooks will clear waivers. I'd be bummed about losing them. King too, but I think he's a vested veteran, making him a free agent already.
Here's the offense's projected starting lineup for the opener against Pittsburgh: QB: Kirk Cousins RB: Bijan Robinson WR: Drake London WR: Darnell Mooney WR: Ray-Ray McCloud TE: Kyle Pitts LT: Jake Matthews LG: Matthew Bergeron C: Drew Dalman RG: Chris Lindstrom RT: Kaleb McGary I'm not 100% sure about the defensive "starters", as it will be a heavy rotation in addition to base vs nickel substitutions, and the first play will obviously be decided by Pittsburgh's formation. But knowing that Arthur Smith is now the Steelers OC, here's a guess: DL: Grady Jarrett DL: David Onyemata NT: Eddie Goldman OLB: Matthew Judon OLB: Lorenzo Carter ILB: Troy Andersen ILB: Kaden Elliss CB: A.J. Terrell CB: Mike Hughes S: Jessie Bates S: Justin Simmons Total combined snaps played in the three preseason games by the 22 starters: 16. (8 each by NT Eddie Goldman and OLB Lorenzo Carter at the start of the Miami game.)
