First things first... I have to rant a bit that I do NOT like the way that the team has handled the situation with Mariota going on IR and the birth of his child. The team played it's last game before the bye on December 4. The next day, they had their only session with the press for the bye week. Arthur Smith did mention in that session (Dec 5) that Mariota wasn't at the facility that day as his wife was going into labor. He hasn't mentioned the Mariota family situation at all since then. The best that I have been able to put together the timeline, she gave birth on December 7. Mariota returned to the Falcons facility to meet with Smith on the 8th and was informed that the team had decided to make the change and start Ridder for the rest of the season. With wife and child still in the hospital, Mariota left the team again after that meeting. The next day (Dec 9) he decided to have his knee checked out and informed the team of that decision. Smith had meetings with the press coming out of the bye week on the 12th and 14th. He only said Mariota wasn't there, he was getting his knee checked out, and that was his prerogative (spoken with a clearly disapproving tone). He made no mention whatsoever that the Mariota family had just welcomed their first child. The team put Mariota on IR on the 14th. He had surgery the following week. Other coaches would emphasize family first. I'm really disappointed that Smith didn't even bother to let the media know the birth of his first child just MIGHT have been a factor in Mariota leaving the team right after that meeting when Ridder was made the starter. Could he have waited until the end of the season to have knee surgery? Probably. But if it's getting worse, he could do more damage just in practice. The stats make it clear he wasn't the same quarterback at the start of December as he was at the end of October. For whatever reason, Mariota was losing accuracy on longer throws. If he thinks the knee is a factor, he would know better than anyone. It did require surgery, so it's not like he was making the whole thing up. By scheduling the surgery when he did, there was still a chance he could return if the team made it into the postseason. If he didn't and the condition got worse, he'd be useless to the team and would simply be taking up a roster spot. As for why Mariota is likely to be the most significant Odd Man Out, it's simple: his contract has a $3 million roster bonus that is due if he's with the team on March 19, and he is scheduled for $9 million in base salary in 2023. If the Falcons release him before March 19, they save $12 million in cap space. If he's in line to be the starter again, he's relatively cheap. But if he's going to be a backup, it's quite expensive. By comparison, Jacoby Brissett's total cap figure with the Browns this season was $4.65 million. Jameis Winston's cap for New Orleans is $4 million, while Andy Dalton's is $3 million. And those numbers include prorated bonus. Adding in Mariota's prorated $2.5 million from his signing bonus brings his total 2023 cap figure to $14.5 million - more than the 2022 cap costs of Brissett, Dalton, Winston and Desmond Ridder combined. So... no-brainer. If he's not starting, he's gone. Expect his release to be announced by mid-February. Maybe sooner. Could he then return as a backup on a cheaper contract? Well, certainly - and this is part of why I'm kinda ticked at the way the team handled things with the media. The NFL is a brutal business. Mariota gets that. But Smith almost went out of his way to throw Mariota under the bus, and it would be stunning if Mariota didn't take that personally.
And thats kinda surprising to me.. the Smith approach. I had the utmost respect for him (Smith) from things ive read and heard, but as you pointed out, he didnt handle this in a very Mariota friendly manner. I get its a business, just seems to me there are right and wrong ways to handle things and, in my opinion, Mariota wasnt handled properly. Treating people like pawns on a chess board is just wrong. I believe Mariota gets another job in the NFL, probably a backup role, but also maybe Mariota learns a valuable lesson from this experience that its a 'dog eat dog' situation out there at times and communications are very important.
Probably both. Ridder looked rough in his debut but was better last week and still better this week. One caveat: he didn't throw long passes this week, so whether he has made progress in that aspect of his game has yet to be seen. Maybe next weekend. So... build around Ridder, definitely. In general, the offense is almost there, especially if the team resigns players like RT Kaleb McGary, LG Elijah Wilkinson (who might become the swing tackle), TE/FB Parker Hesse and at least one of the free agent WRs. Keep those guys and add one more solid WR to the mix. Doesn't have to be a top draft pick. Just grab some guys the same way they signed Byrd, Tate, Hodge and traded for Edwards this year. With the guys returning from injuries and other prospects on the rise, the offense should be ready to rock. It's the defense that truly needs more personnel - at least one interior lineman (I say two - a starting-caliber nose tackle and a five tech), a starting-caliber cornerback, and depth at safety all strike me as very high priorities for the offseason. If they don't hang on to Rashaan Evans and Lorenzo Carter, LB and edge get added to the list (again) as well. As for drafting a QB, last year's scout team passer Feleipe Franks appears to be a full time TE now. So if Mariota is indeed an Odd Man Out, they'll need both a true backup and a #3. I don't think Logan Woodside is the answer for either role, though if he wants to sign and compete for a job, fantastic. I prefer having four QBs for training camp anyway. I do have to admit I'm intrigued with the SI piece suggesting the Falcons might trade for Lamar Jackson if the Ravens can't get him locked in to a long term deal. The problem there is the draft cost rather than the contract / cap. Going forward, Atlanta has plenty of cap space. But the Browns gave up three first rounders (and more) in the Deshaun Watson deal while the Broncos gave up two first rounders and two second rounders (and three players) to get Russell Wilson. That's the kind of package Baltimore would seek in trade, and I do NOT want to see Atlanta go two or three years without those top picks. At least not with the new regime, which to this point actually seems to know what it's doing in the draft. So as electrifying as it would be to have Lamar Jackson, Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London and Tyler Allgeier on the field together, I'd rather pass that up and keep those draft picks to keep adding to the defense. There will be quite a few interesting backup-caliber free agents though. Atlanta just faced one of them this weekend - Cardinals backup David Blough is set to be a restricted free agent this offseason. So is P.J. Walker of the Panthers. I'm not sure if either of them will get a high level tender. I'd be happy to see either of them coming in as a backup in Atlanta. There will likely be other candidates as well. And of course, there's the chance that Smith and Mariota will bury the hatchet and that Mariota returns on the cheap to back up Ridder. I'm not counting on it though. So... build around Ridder. Sign Blough or Walker or some other QB with experience to be the #2, and then draft a mid/late rounder or sign a UDFA on top of that to develop as the #3. Or if possible, bring back Mariota for something like $3M and still add another in either the draft or free agency.
But would you want to see the Ravens with extra first and second rounders for the next couple of years?
