Mongos: Things to Watch - Bears versus Ravens

Losing to the Lions was a very tough pill to swallow.

Every game is precious in a season. Every play within that game is a battle. No team ever wins every single battle. But the team that wins more of them usually wins the game. In that game we won more battles on the field. Unfortunately, our coach is still cutting his NFL teeth and made some very critical mistakes that ended up being the difference in the outcome - IMO.

Not that Trestman was out coached- because Schwartz really didn't do anything other than tell his players to go out and thug - he just under coached...

This week brings in another team that I feel we are better than on paper. The Ravens defense is still formidable, but no where near the defense we've seen over the years. Their offense is nothing short of anemic.

I see this as a win. Unless Trestman goes out there and puts us in position to lose again.


1) Stop the Ravens Pass Rush -

One thing this defense does well is get after the QB. They're ranked 3rd in the NFL right now with 33 sacks. As I pointed out earlier this week, our offensive line really isn't playing as well as everyone thinks. We have the 31st ranked Pass Blocking Oline in the NFL. Yes, Jay has been sacked much less tan last year. But much of that has to do with him playing in a system that makes him get rid of the ball faster.

What really bothers me is that our PBE is actually notably worse than it was last year. Mills - for all the hype around him playing as a rookie - is the worst ranked tackle in the NFL (left or right side).

The Ravens will blitz from any position and Harbaugh has no problems sending the house. But the meat of the Ravens rush will come from Suggs and Dumerville. Combined, those two have more sacks than our entire team. Both are top 5 in the NFL right now with 9 sacks each.

The positive is Ravens have been able to get pressure at 3 points with a strong push up the middle with Ngata. He's got a knee issue and may not be as effective as he could be. However, I just don't see a scenario where the Bears don't give-up 3 or 4 sacks this week.




2) Can McCown do it Again? -

I gave the Bears a snowballs chance in hell of beating the Packers. I think it was BWW who said the only way we win is if we take out Rodgers. In hindsight, that statement is probably still true. However, McCown probably would have given the Bears a fighting chance either way.

He's no Cutler, but he limits his mistakes and seems to have developed a trust with the team. IF we can keep him upright, this Ravens Pass defense has some bumps and bruises and is ripe for the picking. They are also hurting inside. James Ihedigbo and Daryl Smith are beat up. Smith has not been able to practice this week.

Get rid of the ball fast, get it to your play makers and take advantage of a somewhat ailing D.




3) The Vanishing Running Backs -

Since coming into the league, Matt Forte and Ray Rice have been consistently compared to each other. Both put up good running numbers. Both catch the ball out of the back field. Both are in the top 6 in the NFL since they came in in all-purpose yards. But this season, Rice has been almost non-existent. He has 289 yards on the season - and a 2.5 YPC average.

Forte has had a decent season in general. He's actually on pace to break his career numbers in rushing yards. But last week he vanished. Some will contend he sucks. I still contend much of that had to do with the Lions interior line beating the living hell out of our Oline. A lot also has to do with the fact that Cutler was hobbled so the Lions brought the front 7 in and attacked.

Whatever the case: He sucked or the line sucked - we need more from him this week. McCown can't drop back 40 times. He will be murdered. We need a relatively balanced attack. On the other side of the ball, we can't let Rice finally have a good game. Yes, our rush D is one of the worst in the NFL. But this is a good week to improve by shutting him down early and making an over-pad QB have to do it all.


4) Flacco Earning his Paycheck? -

I personally feel he's always been over-rated. But you have to appreciate a guy that times his contract termination with a solid playoff run and a Super Bowl win. I wouldn't be upset at all if Cutler did the same this year and people call him overpaid next year. Just think? Champ Baileys blown coverage of the Denver game probably earned Flacco at least another 10-12 million?


So is he worth the pay this year? 4 wins and 5 losses say no. So does 12 TD to 11 INT's. Flacco's been erratic and inaccurate - and it's not getting better. 2 Ints were last week. But he's on pace for 4000+ yards and he's doing that with a sub-par/injured receiving crew. Right now, the Ravens Offense is ranked a pathetic 31st overall in the NFL by PFF. Much of this has to do with a pathetic and porous offensive line. Flacco has been sacked 30 times already. His QB Rating is down to a career low, and he just doesn't look confident in the pocket.

I think what you're seeing in Flacco is essentially a repeat of what we saw with the Bears when we had no receivers and no line?

I think if he keeps taking 5 sacks a game, you'll also see him suffer what happened with Cutler - and that's him on the side lines.


5) Brandon Marshall versus Jimmy Smith And Alshon versus Webb -

I suspect Smith will line up opposite Marshall wide and I expect a decent battle - with Marshall having the advantage. Webb will line up opposite Alshon, and this should be a clinic. Webb is giving up 5 inches and really should be vulnerable.

The Ravens DB's in general are pretty mediocre this year - but get a lot of masking due to the pass rush. It would not surprise me at all to see another deal 100 yard performance from our guys.


6) Marlon Brown versus "Not Peanut"-

This match-up isn't being talked about out there and it really should be. Marlon Brown is a 6'5 back-up WR who has shown flashes this year playing in place of Jacoby Jones - who still isn't 100%. If Peanut was in, I would give us the definitive advantage. I just don't think Zack Bowman matches up as well. On a somewhat positive note, Brown hurt his knee (tore his cal last year) yesterday and was unable to participate in practice. He's listed as questionable.




7) Ref Factor -

This week we get Gene Steratore and his crew. We last saw him last year here at home with the Texans. Before that, we saw him in the 2010 Lions game where he made a much-discussed on Calvin Johnson say he did not complete the catch in the end zone because he did not hold on all the way through the catch - which he didn't.

Personally, this crew pissed me off. On the play where Cutler was concussed, he completed a pass to Hester who took the ball 42 yards to the 8 yard line. They flagged Cutler for an illegal forward pass and negated the reception.


On the previous play Forte ran to the 49.5 yard line.



Note where they correctly spot the ball prior to the snap.



Now note where Cutler is when the ball is clearly gone.



This play not really hurt us in this game, it hurt us the following week in San Fran as well

 

1) Elvis Dumervil scares me. Dude is always in the backfield. Ngata is the key here. When he abuses interior OL his DE and rush LBs reap rewards. You mention the knee issue, which gives me hope, but Roberto Garza lining up against him does not.

2) I have faith. Why the hell not?

3) Ray Rice likely is going to have himself a great game. Forte I dont hold high expectations for running the ball, but catching is a different story.

4) I hate a select handful of people more than Matt Forte, Joe Flacco is one of them. Last year he got hot and rode the lightning and got paid. While I cant blame him or the Ravens, this year he's gone back to same old average Joe he's always been.

5) Give me Alshon and Brandon. Josh needs to have some time. If he gets 3 seconds, I see some punch in the bears O.

6) Brown has been impressive, but hes still a rookie. And rookies make mistakes. Jacoby Jones on a 'go' route with Wright and or Conte in coverage scares the shit out of me.

7) Eh.

 

Nice write up Mongo. I really don't know what to think about this game. Who will take advantage of the other more. Will the Ravens dormant offense carve up the weak Bears D. Or will the Weak Bears D find some success against a bad Ravens O. I guess we will tune in and find out.

IMO Mills is not the worst RT in the game. Im not penciling him in to the pro bowl for the next 10 years but I think he is solid starting material with room to improve no doubt. Long on the other hand might be the best guard in football over the next 10 years.

Go Bears 34-10

As for the run game I wasn't able to watch last weeks game but I did listen to it on the radio. It sounded to me like the Bears offense operated exclusively out of the shotgun. If this was the case I believe it had allot to do with Forte's horrid running day. Against the Packers I know we ran the ball from under center a bunch. Hopefully with a QB who can drop back that will be the case again this week.

 

Good post Mongo.

I believe Flacco is getting rode on a little harder than he should be. The guy has Torrey Smith and an aging Dallas Clark as his weapons. Smith is legit. Clark has dropped alot of passes this year for whatever reason.

The running game hasn't been good for the Ravens. Teams have filled the box against the run consistantly all season long and have dared Flacco to throw.

My belief is that if the Bears can stuff the run with six and stick a double team on Smith the entire game on defense, they have a decent chance to win. I like the Bear wide-outs and Bennet verses the Raven secondary.

I believe the Bears win this game due to the fact that they have more weapons offensively. It will be up to Josh to get the ball in their hands.

Bears 21 Ravens 12

 

SM i totally agree with point 1 being about the Ravens pass rush. If we can hold them off it'll go a long long way to winning this game. You put up that graphic from PFF the other day showing we rank 2nd last in pass protection, but you never really commented on it. Our sack totals this year make a mockery of that stat, but the fact is we have given up a ton of hits/hurries as the season has gone on. Despite that though, a ranking saying our pass protection is basically as bad as recent years is just a joke to me. I'm still pretty high on this O-Line.

7- The ref factor just seems to become more of an issue each season and each week! But i think its largely a league wide problem, not just the Bears. Anyone watch the thursday night game? In the 1st quarter there was a play when the Titans had not twelve, but 13 players on the field, it was right in front of the side judge, and they got away with it!!! I mean how does something like that get missed?? I really believe something has to be done to improve officiating.

That many lol?? I'll go for Suh, cos well, everyone hates Suh. But who else?

Don't know if you play FF(ive just started), but ive taken a total flyer this week and am starting Dallas F-ing Clark LOL!! Our LB's look extremely weak to me in pass coverage. It'll either be a great move or i'll have egg on my face!

 

Great post as always Mongo. You have a real facility for words in your breakdowns and you always make this an interesting read.

I just wanted to quietly point out that I was one of the very few, if not the only, fan to predict a win over the Packers. Everyone ignored me which is completely understandable considering my under-developed understanding of the game of football but I thought I should at least comment on it. With Cutler (drat, I can never spell his name right) out and McCown getting some more field experience we might be surprised at how he continues to step up. It would have been more than interesting to see what he would have done against the Lions if he had been given the chance to do so.

 

And many of us would quietly point out to you that if you would have called Rodgers getting taken out and that is the reason we won.....that would have been a great call.

However, it's just a lot of luck because we don't win that one with a healthy Aaron Rodgers.

 

Good write up Mongo. As always.

Joe Flacco with any time in the pocket scares me because you are right, Torrey Smith is legit. Against our DB's.....this could get nasty.

Coming straight to you from a defense that made Brandon Jacobs look like a pro-bowler, and Rice is still a better RB, I see Rice getting it going in this one. He is much better than his numbers suggest.

However, I would say the biggest key to me in this one is our pass rush. If we can get to Joe consistently, we have a good chance at winning this one at home. If our pass rush goes into witness protection again; it will not be good.

 

See and that's where I would have to respectfully disagree AF I believe we would have won that game even if Rodgers had stayed in.

Anyway no point to that kind of projection because it didn't happen that way.

And just to clarify ... my post was written tongue-in-cheek

 

So was mine!

 

I do play FF. I normally draft with depth in mind at the RB/WR positions, so I fail to address the TE position seriously. I choose to mix and match at the TE spot week by week and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. I got lucky this week and Walker from the Titans was available in all three leagues I'm in.

So unless you draft one of the few elite TE's.... You are likely going to be in the same boat as nearly half of the rest of the owner's in your league at trying to catch 'bonus points' from the position.

 

Tight ends have done well against the Bears this season. The seams tend to be open a lot as do the flats.

A lot of it is poor gap control. That has been the biggest issue with this team all year.

 

I very rarely end up with an elite TE unless I swing a trade for one. I'm more content to be deep at backs and receivers than to have Jimmy Graham. If you have studs at your 5 other spots you can get away with a serviceable tight end that will get you 8-10 points consistently.

 

I don't think he's the worst either. But he has stopped passing the eye test for me in pass blocking. PFF has him ranked as the worst based on their evaluation.

i have no issues with Kyle long. He has looked good at times, and I still see a much higher ceiling.

 

Those damn paint fumes...

 

Smith started the season out great. But he took a big slide beginning with the Packers game. He has had problems with man coverage. Jennings will be on him (I'd assume). I think we probably have the advantage, but agree that without pressure, most NFL receivers can get open. Conte has been horrible at getting to the ball over the top on deep routes.

 

I still contend there is no conspiracy. They don't get into a room and all discuss making calls for one team or another. But i do think they make far too many misakes.

Ref's calls will inevitably be a factor in games. What sucks is when ref's mistakes are the factor.

 

Don't have time to post in depth, but I play a lot of FF, and the Bears D has been notorious for years giving up a lot of yards to opposing TE's.

 

I like Mills, and not just because he has a studly last name. He has struggled this season though a lot of people won't notice because of the nature of the offense and because he has a guy playing guard next to him that despite being very new to his position has at times looked like a very aware veteran.

Long has been capable of finishing his blocks and helping out Mills at the same time, which is amazing. Also, on a lot of run blocks he has been able to block his man into Mills' man esstenially taking out two guys at once.

I think Mills shows good technique and he definitely doesn't appear lazy to be a la our old buddy Webb. He has some skill but he needs some time. Thankfully Long has done enough to make them both look better and the offense does a lot to mask the things the entire line doesn't do well.

 

The most important thing, in my opinion anyway, is that Long and Mills both appear to have quick feet when I watch them. When you can get your footwork right..........all the other stuff will eventually fall into place.